Weekend Update With Pumpkin Pie

One of the great things about the change of seasons in New England is that the weather changes can be associated with traditions.  So as the leaves change (and it is beautiful out my backyard today - I will try and post a picture later) and the temps drop, I start to think of warm cider and pumpkin pie.  Today I will make the first pumpkin pie of the season.

Weekend Update

I think this was a down week for the market, but my portfolio continues to edge higher and higher. I am up 30.6% now, which is beating the R3K by about 9.1 points.  It was funny, I heard a guy on CNBC saying that people should think about selling.  I can kind of see that, byut his rationale was very strange.  He said in all the years that the market was up 16% or more in the first 3 quarters, it averaged going up by 3% in the fourth quarter.  He rationalized that that was not very much upside, so you should think about selling.

I don't know, 3% in a quarter seems above average to me, why would that be a reason to sell?  That is if I believed that the markets has a memory like that and it was only the past 3 quarters that were predictive.

Dividend Portfolio

I think we can safely say my purchase of IP last week was early.  It has dropped 7% for me.  I still love the regular dividends, so I plan to always have a dividend portfolio.  I will take the long view as overall it is ahead.  I have been thinking about adding to my CEFs, AOD and CSQ which are near record high discounts from their NAVs.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AAPL	115	461.49	483.03	817.31	6.2%	15.3%	-9.1%
ABR	6,000	6.90	6.63	-	-3.9%	-0.1%	-3.8%
AOD	18,945	3.95	4.06	3,017.73	6.7%	11.0%	-4.3%
BBEP	3,584	15.44	18.14	1,675.20	20.5%	4.3%	16.2%
CSCO	4,356	17.30	23.02	3,479.34	37.7%	28.1%	9.5%
CSQ	5,785	8.38	10.11	8,742.08	38.6%	43.8%	-5.2%
INTC	3,718	22.24	22.81	3,654.19	7.0%	22.4%	-15.4%
IP	1,000	47.13	43.70	-	-7.3%	-0.1%	-7.1%
O	574	20.11	39.70	8,282.19	169.1%	95.3%	73.8%
OIBAX	4,049	4.98	6.11	7,540.66	60.2%	98.4%	-38.1%
RIG	1,730	50.48	45.45	1,491.28	-8.3%	7.0%	-15.3%
SBS	6,211	9.54	10.10	-	5.9%	0.5%	5.4%
STO	2,211	22.97	22.71	3,024.82	4.8%	25.8%	-21.0%
TC-PT	3,000	14.98	18.21	2,437.20	27.0%	9.2%	17.7%
TCRD	4,200	14.73	15.53	1,764.00	8.3%	4.6%	3.7%
TGONF	5,000	10.38	9.95	337.50	-3.5%	4.8%	-8.3%
Total Open				46,264	13.1%	16.1%	-3.0%
Closed					13.6%	9.7%	3.9%
Combined					13.5%	11.1%	2.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.6%
2013 Gain					15.1%

Stock	Shares	Ann Dividend / Share	Yield	Projected Dividend	Sector	Worth
AAPL	115	$      12.20	2.5%	1,405	Consumer	55,615
ABR	6,000	$        0.48	7.2%	2,880	Real Estate	39,780
AOD	18,945	$        0.32	8.0%	6,138	Hybrid	76,918
BBEP	3,584	$        1.90	10.5%	6,809	Resources	65,007
CSCO	4,356	$        0.68	3.0%	2,962	Tech	100,284
CSQ	5,785	$        0.84	8.3%	4,860	Hybrid	58,491
INTC	3,718	$        0.90	3.9%	3,347	Tech	84,817
IP	1,000	$        1.40	3.2%	1,400	Bond	43,700
O	574	$        2.17	5.5%	1,247	Services	22,806
OIBAX	4,049	$        0.29	4.7%	1,174	Bond	24,740
RIG	1,730	$        2.24	4.9%	3,876	Services	78,635
SBS	6,211	$        0.38	3.8%	2,360	Utility	62,731
STO	2,211	$        1.16	5.1%	2,567	Resources	50,201
TC-PT	3,000	$        1.60	8.8%	4,800	Resources	54,630
TCRD	4,200	$        1.36	8.8%	5,712	Hybrid	65,226
TGONF	5,000	$        0.56	5.6%	2,800	Finance	49,750
Total			5.8%	54,336

Transaction

Stop the presses!  Looking at the numbers above, I see where TGONF dropped to $9.95.  I had a buy order in at $10.  I just went to my account and saw it was triggered.  I am going to be lazy and not fix the table above right now.  But TGONF increased by 40% (2,000 more shares on top of the 5,000).  I do like have some European financial exposure and this is a company with a book value north of $16.

MFI Portfolio

Woowza!  This portfolio has really been the rocket to the moon.  It is beating the R3K index by a staggering 21.1 points.  I really need to start funneling a few more shekels into this portfolio. I will either add an MFI dividend component to my dividend portfolio, just buy some MFI in my discretionary portfolio or else just up the dollars in each of my tranches.

11/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$483.03	$8.75	-8.5%	29.2%
ABC	$40.21	$62.47	$0.63	56.9%	29.2%
LPS	$23.89	$33.21	$0.40	40.7%	29.2%
VIAB	$49.12	$83.20	$1.15	71.7%	29.2%
WU	$12.77	$18.78	$0.50	51.0%	29.2%
Totals				42.4%	29.2%
2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$483.03	$8.75	9.1%	14.4%
GA	$6.10	$9.28	$0.42	59.1%	14.4%
STRZA	$16.06	$28.60	$0.00	78.1%	14.4%
CA	$25.07	$29.57	$0.75	20.9%	14.4%
NUS	$41.94	$99.50	$0.90	139.4%	14.4%
Totals				61.3%	14.4%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$11.54	$0.00	1.2%	6.8%
CYOU	$29.24	$40.00	$0.00	36.8%	6.8%
RDA	$9.74	$15.28	$0.10	58.0%	6.8%
NVDA	$13.85	$15.59	$0.15	13.6%	6.8%
CF	$183.97	$216.38	$0.80	18.1%	6.8%
Totals				25.5%	6.8%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$216.38	$0.00	15.6%	2.8%
FLR	$66.06	$71.87	$0.16	9.0%	2.8%
AGX	$15.60	$21.52	$0.00	37.9%	2.8%
KLIC	$11.29	$11.54	$0.00	2.2%	2.8%
RPXC	$15.92	$17.71	$0.00	11.2%	2.8%
Totals				15.2%	2.8%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	15.2%	42.4%	61.3%	25.5%	35.4%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%
MFI Overall Gain	31.4%	42.4%	61.3%	25.5%	40.2%
Current Balance	32,848	35,594	40,330	31,386	140,158
R3K Current Tranche	2.8%	29.2%	14.4%	6.8%	13.3%
R3K Overall Gain	25.5%	29.2%	14.4%	6.8%	19.0%
R3K Balance	31,386	32,309	28,610	26,697	119,002
Annualized IRR					68.7%

Just look at those open tranches!  November is up 42.4%!  February is up a stunning 61%.  And May is up 25.5%, with the new August already up 15.2%.  I have been helped by selectively picking a few Chinese stocks that were not on official list.  GA is up 59%, RDA is up 58% and CYOU is up almost 37%.  As I mentioned, I am starting to tinker with ideas for replacements to November 15 portfolio.

I did look today at the runoff of the5 stocks in my August 15, 2012 portfolio.  They are up 6.8% since I sold them, which is very respectable.  I also looked at the rejects, the 13 other stocks I considered, but rejected.  They are up in aggregate 4.3%.  Their big winners are IQNT (+30.5% - I almost bought them, but switched to AGX at last nano second), CYOU at +34% and STX at +16%.  CVI is the biggest loser, down almost 11%.  I knew by looking at crack spreads that refiners had peaked... I will continue to watch for a new entry point.  GTIV is down almost 9% and they are in contention for a November slot.

Discretionary Portfolio

The results of this portfolio are not maintained in the thoroughness of my other two portfolios.  But let me assure you that this portfolio is rocking.

Stock	Gain	Cost	Price
GTAT	167.6%	3.39	9.07
GNW	81.4%	7.10	12.89
ACAS	8.2%	12.70	13.73
KLIC	3.5%	11.15	11.54
BAC-WTA	15.2%	5.35	6.16
HIG-WT	9.1%	20.89	22.79
QEPM	7.0%	21.00	22.47

Just think what it would look like if I had gotten into a couple of the unbelievable IPOs this season!  Still, it is sweet.  The GTAT is actually up 232% from my March buy at 2.73.  I had a short term (one week) sell and re-buy in April.

Have a great Pumpkin Pie weekend everyone!