Friday, July 29, 2016

Upcoming Tranche

August 17th Tranche

Whoa, it is almost the end of July!  I only have 14 trading days left before I need to replace my 8/17/2015 MFI Select tranche.  Currently, the tranche has VDSI, SALE, CSCO, TGNA and HSII. It has frankly struggled, down 3.6% as CSCO is my big "winner" at a mere +8.7%. The benchmark is up 4%, so it is probable this will be my third straight tranche to lose to the benchmark in my select portfolio.  No huge shame in that, that is certainly on par with where MFI tracking portfolios started first six months of 2015.

I do also track alternative portfolios. If I had rolled over my August 2014 tranche (which was officially up 11%), it has been down 4.5% - so very close to my five picks.  I also tracked the stocks I rejected a year ago,  they are down 17%! So it could have been much worse.

Looking forward, I still have a few weeks to noodle it over, but here are five stocks I am spitballing about:

AMAG - up 35% since I didn't pick in May, but they still look cheapish.
AVID - seems like a hated stock, but seems cheap too.
MPAA and WNC - a couple names associated with providing parts for auto industry. I know Ford pooh poohed 2nd half of year, but MPAA is replacement parts - seems like. Solid pick.
KFY - HSII had a great quarter, perhaps KFY will as well in early September?
WDC - not on list right now, but may do my own calculation as seems it should be on list. I actually own right now.
SVU - grocery store, cheap but with a lot of debt. I'll need to be convinced.
BLBD - sells school buses! Up 35% since I started following, is there still gas in the tank? (Sorry)
RPXC - this patent insurance company always looks so cheap. I have to at least kick the tires (another bus pun).
PINC - this just came up on radar. Looks interesting, in the HC space, which isn't that common in MFI.

That is it, ten names to start with.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Various Earnings

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

Wow, I have always blogged about how MFI is streaky.  We have been in a terrible downward streak. 15 of  my last 16 monthly tracking portfolios that have closed have "lost" to the  benchmark.  But all  of a sudden, the metrics are looking better.  The average open tranche in my twelve open tracking portfolios are now in a dead heat with the benchmark. It was like 2.5 points a week ago.

Perhaps the winds have shifted, just like in The Return of The King.  And the rising tide is definitely helping my 8 real $ tranches.  They are leading the benchmarks and the lead is stretching out.  Early days, but to borrow another movie, perhaps a New Hope.

Many of my stocks are starting to have earnings reports. CPLA and HSII were both very good today while TGNA was bad.  RHI was after the bell and seems bad.




Sunday, July 24, 2016

Weekend Update 7/24/16

Weekend Update

Just got back from a quick trip to New Hampshire.  I really like spending time in the White Mountains. But I came back... this time.

Markets continue to move higher, I am now up 8.5% on the year, despite some hedging positions that have cost me some performance.  My MFI positions are actually starting to look pretty decent.  My Formula approach is up over 11% and my select is up over 4%.  The Index is up 5.2%.

MFI Select

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
Current 54.21%        208,619            154,407


This table certainly show how strong the post Brexit/July move has been.  From 201,092 to 208,619 (assuming a hypothetical $100,000 start).  QCOM had a blow out week.  SAVE did struggle.

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.42 $0.00 -6.7% 4.2%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.21 $0.00 -12.1% 4.2%
 CSCO  $28.95 $30.71 $0.94 9.3% 4.2%
 TGNA  $25.30 $24.85 $0.56 0.4% 4.2%
 HSII  $20.14 $17.67 $0.26 -11.0% 4.2%
 Totals  -4.0% 4.2%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $30.67 $0.00 -9.8% 6.6%
 SAVE  $34.48 $43.76 $0.00 26.9% 6.6%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.19 $2.75 47.2% 6.6%
 VEC  $23.60 $30.63 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.18 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 Totals  24.8% 6.6%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $30.63 $0.00 56.0% 13.4%
 QCOM  $45.18 $61.15 $1.01 37.6% 13.4%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.23 $0.00 -49.8% 13.4%
 DEPO  $15.34 $19.00 $0.00 23.9% 13.4%
 TDC  $24.02 $28.21 $0.00 17.4% 13.4%
 Totals  17.0% 13.4%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.12 $0.06 15.1% 6.4%
 CBI  $37.82 $35.96 $0.00 -4.9% 6.4%
 HSII  $18.51 $17.67 $0.00 -4.5% 6.4%
 RHI  $38.51 $40.98 $0.22 7.0% 6.4%
 UTHR  $107.99 $111.41 $0.00 3.2% 6.4%
 Totals  3.2% 6.4%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -4.0% 24.8% 17.0% 3.2% 12.2%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 8.4%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  72.2% 247.1% 93.9% 21.3% 108.6%
 Current Balance         43,046          86,770       48,474        30,329      208,619
 R3K Current Tranche  4.2% 6.6% 13.4% 6.4% 7.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  65.4% 68.2% 51.1% 33.0% 54.4%
 R3K Balance         41,343          42,044       37,783        33,238      154,407
 Annualized IRR  14.8% 40.1% 21.0% 6.2% 22.2%

While I have two open tranches trailing and two open tranches leading, all four tranches in total are up a solid 12.2% versus 7.7% for the benchmark.  This is helped by the fact that my November tranche has become dis-proportionately large (up 247%). and it is the one doing well again.  In fact, look at my four November tranches:

 11/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $537.62 $527.28 $8.75 -0.3% 36.7%
 ABC  $40.21 $69.23 $0.86 74.3% 36.7%
 LPS  $23.89 $34.26 $0.40 45.1% 36.7%
 VIAB  $49.12 $80.94 $1.15 67.1% 36.7%
 WU  $12.77 $16.40 $0.50 32.3% 36.7%
 Totals  43.7% 36.7%
Up 43.7%!

 11/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $17.22 $19.21 $0.00 11.6% 14.5%
 ATVI  $17.71 $20.10 $0.20 14.6% 14.5%
 GA  $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 14.5%
 RPXC  $17.04 $13.91 $0.00 -18.4% 14.5%
 SYNA  $48.01 $61.90 $0.00 28.9% 14.5%
 Totals  14.2% 14.5%
The slacker of the group.

 11/15/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 FLR  $64.80 $47.46 $0.84 -25.5% 0.8%
 IPCM  $38.45 $80.03 $0.00 108.1% 0.8%
 VIAB  $72.29 $50.69 $1.46 -27.9% 0.8%
 NHTC  $12.19 $51.46 $0.06 322.6% 0.8%
 AWRE  $4.40 $3.07 $0.00 -30.2% 0.8%
 Totals  69.4% 0.8%
Up 69%! IPCM and NHTC two of best picks ever.

11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $30.67 $0.00 -9.8% 6.6%
 SAVE  $34.48 $43.76 $0.00 26.9% 6.6%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.19 $2.75 47.2% 6.6%
 VEC  $23.60 $30.63 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.18 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 Totals  24.8% 6.6%
No shame here either. Four great picks out of the five so far.

MFI Formula

Wow,  all of a sudden the formula started to work very well.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
Current 2.46%        108,576            106,118

I have gone from $93,797 on 2/1/16 to $108,576 now. And I have gone from trailing the benchmark to almost a 2.5% lead.

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.99 $1.98 -24.1% 13.1%
 IQNT  $21.96 $20.82 $0.45 -3.1% 13.1%
 QCOM  $53.45 $61.15 $1.49 17.2% 13.1%
 CSCO  $26.37 $30.71 $0.94 20.0% 13.1%
 CA  $27.30 $34.40 $0.76 28.8% 13.1%
 Totals  7.8% 13.1%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.14 $1.01 9.4% 7.1%
 GME  $28.34 $30.81 $0.74 11.3% 7.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.65 $0.24 12.6% 7.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.19 $2.75 25.8% 7.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $45.57 $0.80 13.3% 7.1%
 Totals  14.5% 7.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $40.58 $0.44 -20.0% 6.8%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.11 $0.13 17.6% 6.8%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.46 $0.19 9.2% 6.8%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.65 $0.12 28.3% 6.8%
 TSRA  $30.79 $31.80 $0.20 3.9% 6.8%
 Totals  7.8% 6.8%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.65 $0.00 5.3% 2.6%
 VIAB  $44.00 $45.57 $0.00 3.6% 2.6%
 CPLA  $53.22 $56.73 $0.00 6.6% 2.6%
 HRB  $23.62 $23.91 $0.00 1.2% 2.6%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.80 $0.00 6.3% 2.6%
 Totals  4.6% 2.6%

So while 10/1 is still a struggle, my other three open tranches are leading.

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  7.8% 14.5% 7.8% 4.6% 8.7%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 0.0%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  8.3% 27.1% 7.5% -8.4% 8.6%
 Current Balance      270,440        317,617     269,068      228,631      1,085,756
 R3K Current Tranche  13.1% 7.1% 6.8% -0.3% 6.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  12.5% 6.8% 5.6% -0.3% 6.2%
 R3K Balance      280,945        266,953     264,243      249,047      1,061,188
 Annualized IRR  4.5% 16.5% 5.7% -7.9% 6.0%

In total, my open tranches are up 8.7% versus 6.7% for benchmark.  Not declaring victory, not thumping chest... but am quietly smiling to  myself.


Dividends & Warrants

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.83 $0.00 -21.8% -31.2% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.53 $1.48 17.9% 17.3% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.34 $0.40 11.8% 9.9% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.06 $10.50 $1.90 36.9% 34.8% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $19.09 $0.30 5.3% 2.3% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.10 $1.52 13.5% 12.5% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.57 $70.41 $18.60 277.6% 275.2% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.87 $2.23 60.3% 60.1% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.61 $0.19 -22.3% -19.6% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.69 $10.53 $0.29 1.3% 1.6% 0.0%
 Totals  9.8% 7.1% 9.0%

Very nice bounce this week.  The BAC warrants dropped to $3.04 on 7/5. Now three weeks later at $3.83.  The war is not yet won, but going to right direction.

Have a great  week everyone.