Sunday, July 10, 2016

Weekend Update & Newest Tranche


Weekend Update

Tough week this week, with Baton Rouge, St Paul & Dallas shootings.  This is total madness - I pray as a society we can work together to make things better for everyone.

The investing week ended up extremely positive as the S&P 500 is just a whisker from all time highs.  It shows how poor I am at "timing" markets.  While markets by many measures is over bought, the US  stock market remains one of the perceived best places to put your money in the world.  With currency wars, negative bond yields, risks of Europe falling apart - we are clearly viewed as a "safe" haven.

As I did get more defensive,  I am now up 5.6% on the year. Still beating the markets, but my lead has been eroded.  I am still staying relatively defensive, though I did renew my July 1sy MFI Formula tranche.

MFI Select

Solid week here, up over 0.5%.  But I am still down 3.2%. It is interesting that my MFI index may a real push this week and is now up 1.9% on the year.  That is a green shoot.

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $15.79 $0.00 -15.4% 2.0%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.11 $0.00 -13.2% 2.0%
 CSCO  $28.95 $29.26 $0.94 4.3% 2.0%
 TGNA  $25.30 $23.64 $0.56 -4.3% 2.0%
 HSII  $20.14 $17.45 $0.26 -12.1% 2.0%
 Totals  -8.1% 2.0%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $24.59  $           -   -27.7% 4.3%
 SAVE  $34.48 $46.03  $           -   33.5% 4.3%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.79  $       2.75 50.4% 4.3%
 VEC  $23.60 $29.85  $           -   26.5% 4.3%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.31  $           -   33.1% 4.3%
 Totals  23.2% 4.3%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $29.85  $           -   52.0% 11.0%
 QCOM  $45.18 $54.19  $       1.01 22.2% 11.0%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.11  $           -   -54.7% 11.0%
 DEPO  $15.34 $18.77  $           -   22.4% 11.0%
 TDC  $24.02 $25.94  $           -   8.0% 11.0%
 Totals  10.0% 11.0%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.40  $       0.06 18.6% 4.0%
 CBI  $37.82 $36.34  $           -   -3.9% 4.0%
 HSII  $18.51 $17.45  $           -   -5.7% 4.0%
 RHI  $38.51 $38.66  $       0.22 1.0% 4.0%
 UTHR  $107.99 $111.16  $           -   2.9% 4.0%
 Totals  2.6% 4.0%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -8.1% 23.2% 10.0% 2.6% 9.0%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 8.3%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  64.8% 242.5% 82.2% 20.6% 102.5%
 Current Balance         41,190          85,633       45,556        30,157      202,536
 R3K Current Tranche  2.0% 4.3% 11.0% 4.0% 5.3%
 R3K Overall Gain  61.8% 64.5% 47.8% 33.0% 51.8%
 R3K Balance         40,449          41,131       36,958        33,238      151,776
 Annualized IRR  13.6% 40.1% 19.1% 6.1% 21.4%


You can see the August tranche is poor - not much time to turn that around.  November is stunningly strong.  February is 4 very good picks, but one dog (Peri) is dragging the results back to par.  May is also off to a slowish start.  My 5 "rejects", the stocks I considered but did not select are up 19%.  I went with CBI instead of AGX (up 31%) and UTHR instead of AMAG (up 27%).

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
Current 50.76%        202,536            151,776


MFI Formula

I did start a new tranche this week.  As  a reminder, this approach uses
  1. The official list 
  2. I then sub select stocks with a market cap over 600m and a dividend yield over 2.4%
  3. I then have the option to remove one stock (I did not do that this time)
  4. I then randomly pick 5 stocks.

Random # Stock
9 IILG
12 VIAB
2 HRB
5 CPLA
11 PBI

So I did get three "new" stocks - I didn't own HRB, CPLA or PBI.  I have to admit, CPLA and HRB both make me nervous and it is unlikely I would have picked on my own.

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $26.32 $1.73 -23.8% 10.6%
 IQNT  $21.96 $19.85 $0.45 -7.6% 10.6%
 QCOM  $53.45 $54.19 $1.49 4.2% 10.6%
 CSCO  $26.37 $29.26 $0.94 14.5% 10.6%
 CA  $27.30 $33.77 $0.76 26.5% 10.6%
 Totals  2.8% 10.6%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $30.95 $1.01 5.4% 4.8%
 GME  $28.34 $27.37 $0.74 -0.8% 4.8%
 IILG  $15.89 $16.60 $0.24 6.0% 4.8%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.79 $2.75 28.5% 4.8%
 VIAB  $40.93 $45.20 $0.80 12.4% 4.8%
 Totals  10.3% 4.8%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $45.62 $0.44 -10.2% 4.5%
 HPQ  $12.10 $13.08 $0.13 9.1% 4.5%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.26 $0.19 7.9% 4.5%
 IILG  $13.85 $16.60 $0.12 20.7% 4.5%
 TSRA  $30.79 $30.72 $0.20 0.4% 4.5%
 Totals  5.6% 4.5%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $16.60 $0.00 -1.0% 0.4%
 VIAB  $44.00 $45.20 $0.00 2.7% 0.4%
 CPLA  $53.22 $53.49 $0.00 0.5% 0.4%
 HRB  $23.62 $23.59 $0.00 -0.1% 0.4%
 PBI  $17.69 $17.80 $0.00 0.6% 0.4%
 Totals  0.6% 0.4%

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  2.8% 10.3% 5.6% 0.6% 4.8%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 0.0%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  3.2% 22.4% 5.3% -12.0% 4.8%
 Current Balance      257,877        306,033     263,538      219,800      1,047,247
 R3K Current Tranche  10.6% 4.8% 4.5% -0.3% 4.9%
 R3K Overall Gain  10.0% 4.5% 3.3% -0.3% 4.4%
 R3K Balance      274,877        261,153     258,476      249,047      1,043,553
 Annualized IRR  1.8% 14.2% 4.1% -11.6% 3.4%

I will note that this approach has now passed the benchmark.  I think that quality dividend stocks have a chance to demand a higher premium in today's yield starved world. We shall see.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
Current 0.37%        104,725            104,355

Dividend/Warrant Portfolio

Not sure what to do with this.  I did sell my HIG warrants, but am still listing at sold price.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.25 $0.00 -33.6% -32.4% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.34 $1.42 14.7% 14.5% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.24 $0.35 9.9% 8.2% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.05 $10.11 $1.92 32.9% 30.7% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $18.98 $0.15 3.9% 1.8% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.91 $1.52 11.7% 13.1% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.44 $69.91 $18.66 277.9% 276.7% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.85 $2.23 59.9% 59.5% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $7.28 $0.19 -14.7% -14.9% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.69 $10.89 $0.12 3.0% 2.8% 0.0%
 Totals  6.5% 6.2% 9.0%

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