Tough week this week, with Baton Rouge, St Paul & Dallas shootings. This is total madness - I pray as a society we can work together to make things better for everyone.
The investing week ended up extremely positive as the S&P 500 is just a whisker from all time highs. It shows how poor I am at "timing" markets. While markets by many measures is over bought, the US stock market remains one of the perceived best places to put your money in the world. With currency wars, negative bond yields, risks of Europe falling apart - we are clearly viewed as a "safe" haven.
As I did get more defensive, I am now up 5.6% on the year. Still beating the markets, but my lead has been eroded. I am still staying relatively defensive, though I did renew my July 1sy MFI Formula tranche.
MFI Select
Solid week here, up over 0.5%. But I am still down 3.2%. It is interesting that my MFI index may a real push this week and is now up 1.9% on the year. That is a green shoot.
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $15.79 | $0.00 | -15.4% | 2.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $8.11 | $0.00 | -13.2% | 2.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $29.26 | $0.94 | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $23.64 | $0.56 | -4.3% | 2.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $17.45 | $0.26 | -12.1% | 2.0% |
| Totals | -8.1% | 2.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.59 | $ - | -27.7% | 4.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $46.03 | $ - | 33.5% | 4.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $25.79 | $ 2.75 | 50.4% | 4.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $29.85 | $ - | 26.5% | 4.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.31 | $ - | 33.1% | 4.3% |
| Totals | 23.2% | 4.3% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $29.85 | $ - | 52.0% | 11.0% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $54.19 | $ 1.01 | 22.2% | 11.0% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.11 | $ - | -54.7% | 11.0% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $18.77 | $ - | 22.4% | 11.0% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $25.94 | $ - | 8.0% | 11.0% |
| Totals | 10.0% | 11.0% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $9.40 | $ 0.06 | 18.6% | 4.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $36.34 | $ - | -3.9% | 4.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $17.45 | $ - | -5.7% | 4.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.66 | $ 0.22 | 1.0% | 4.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $111.16 | $ - | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| Totals | 2.6% | 4.0% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -8.1% | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 9.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.3% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 64.8% | 242.5% | 82.2% | 20.6% | 102.5% |
| Current Balance | 41,190 | 85,633 | 45,556 | 30,157 | 202,536 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 2.0% | 4.3% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 61.8% | 64.5% | 47.8% | 33.0% | 51.8% |
| R3K Balance | 40,449 | 41,131 | 36,958 | 33,238 | 151,776 |
| Annualized IRR | 13.6% | 40.1% | 19.1% | 6.1% | 21.4% |
You can see the August tranche is poor - not much time to turn that around. November is stunningly strong. February is 4 very good picks, but one dog (Peri) is dragging the results back to par. May is also off to a slowish start. My 5 "rejects", the stocks I considered but did not select are up 19%. I went with CBI instead of AGX (up 31%) and UTHR instead of AMAG (up 27%).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| Current | 50.76% | 202,536 | 151,776 |
MFI Formula
I did start a new tranche this week. As a reminder, this approach uses
- The official list
- I then sub select stocks with a market cap over 600m and a dividend yield over 2.4%
- I then have the option to remove one stock (I did not do that this time)
- I then randomly pick 5 stocks.
| Random # | Stock |
| 9 | IILG |
| 12 | VIAB |
| 2 | HRB |
| 5 | CPLA |
| 11 | PBI |
So I did get three "new" stocks - I didn't own HRB, CPLA or PBI. I have to admit, CPLA and HRB both make me nervous and it is unlikely I would have picked on my own.
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $26.32 | $1.73 | -23.8% | 10.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $19.85 | $0.45 | -7.6% | 10.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $54.19 | $1.49 | 4.2% | 10.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $29.26 | $0.94 | 14.5% | 10.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $33.77 | $0.76 | 26.5% | 10.6% |
| Totals | 2.8% | 10.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $30.95 | $1.01 | 5.4% | 4.8% |
| GME | $28.34 | $27.37 | $0.74 | -0.8% | 4.8% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $16.60 | $0.24 | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $25.79 | $2.75 | 28.5% | 4.8% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $45.20 | $0.80 | 12.4% | 4.8% |
| Totals | 10.3% | 4.8% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $45.62 | $0.44 | -10.2% | 4.5% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $13.08 | $0.13 | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $16.26 | $0.19 | 7.9% | 4.5% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $16.60 | $0.12 | 20.7% | 4.5% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $30.72 | $0.20 | 0.4% | 4.5% |
| Totals | 5.6% | 4.5% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $16.60 | $0.00 | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $45.20 | $0.00 | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $53.49 | $0.00 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $23.59 | $0.00 | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $17.80 | $0.00 | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Totals | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 2.8% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 0.6% | 4.8% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 0.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 3.2% | 22.4% | 5.3% | -12.0% | 4.8% |
| Current Balance | 257,877 | 306,033 | 263,538 | 219,800 | 1,047,247 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 10.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | -0.3% | 4.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | -0.3% | 4.4% |
| R3K Balance | 274,877 | 261,153 | 258,476 | 249,047 | 1,043,553 |
| Annualized IRR | 1.8% | 14.2% | 4.1% | -11.6% | 3.4% |
I will note that this approach has now passed the benchmark. I think that quality dividend stocks have a chance to demand a higher premium in today's yield starved world. We shall see.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| Current | 0.37% | 104,725 | 104,355 |
Dividend/Warrant Portfolio
Not sure what to do with this. I did sell my HIG warrants, but am still listing at sold price.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.25 | $0.00 | -33.6% | -32.4% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.34 | $1.42 | 14.7% | 14.5% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.24 | $0.35 | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.05 | $10.11 | $1.92 | 32.9% | 30.7% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $18.98 | $0.15 | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.91 | $1.52 | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.44 | $69.91 | $18.66 | 277.9% | 276.7% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.85 | $2.23 | 59.9% | 59.5% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $7.28 | $0.19 | -14.7% | -14.9% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.69 | $10.89 | $0.12 | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% |
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