Saturday, February 27, 2010

New Mechanical Stocks - Feb 26 2010

First, we need to bid adieu to the stocks from a year ago. It was a very good year. Check 'em out!

Top 50
Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 120.20 - 73.93 2.18 191.3% 52.7% 138.5%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 149.46 - 73.93 2.18 169.4% 52.7% 116.7%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 52.84 0.15 68.92 2.18 82.7% 63.8% 18.8%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.47 - 77.42 2.18 63.3% 45.8% 17.5%

Top 30
Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 120.20 - 73.93 2.18 191.3% 52.7% 138.5%
FWLT 2/28/09 15.04 24.63 - 73.93 2.18 63.8% 52.7% 11.0%
HCKT 2/28/09 2.56 2.75 - 73.93 2.18 7.4% 52.7% -45.3%
MWW 2/28/09 6.59 13.95 - 73.93 2.18 111.7% 52.7% 59.0%
PTIE 2/28/09 4.53 6.05 - 73.93 2.18 33.6% 52.7% -19.2%
TRLG 2/28/09 10.22 24.56 - 73.93 2.18 140.3% 52.7% 87.6%

If you had bought all ten (note Deck is in both), you'd be up a snappy 105%! S&P 500 was up 53%, so that is a 52 point drubbing. If you had bought all 50 of the MFI stocks greater than 100m, you'd be up about 93%. The mechanical approach continues to "win".

A lot of new stocks this weekend. New to the top 30 include UIS (weird, they were new to top 50 a couple weeks ago, have gone up in price and now make the top 30?). The top 50 has HRB, TNDM and DEXO. As I mentioned, I bought TNDM during past week. I would like to buy another stock next week as I am 20%+ in cash. After my JTX fiasco, I am not sure I have stomach for HRB. And DEXO, is just emerging from bankruptcy. I suppose I should at least look at them. I may come back to ODSY, the new stock from last week or else ARRS. I am actually tempted to double down on UIS with its recent addition to top 30 list... I like their profile and they were headlined in Barron's last week.

Tomorrow I'll profile the February 26 2009 monthly portfolio which came of age and was an all-time record setter!

Back Above Breakeven

Definitely treading water thus far in 2010. Good news is that I have bounced back from 3 weeks ago. Here is the update of my chart:


I continue to be heavy in cash, about 17%. Here are my current holdings, note my newest stock: TNDM.

WILC 222%
KHD 44%
SHE 71%
CBI 59%
AMED 61%
UEPS 41%
CMFO 44%
ENDP 36%
UTA 25%
BR 29%
AGX 27%
HCKT 20%
RTN 25%
PFE 28%
CF 19%
BIOC 18%
CYTK 17%
FRX 29%
ESI 16%
CEU 13%
BKE 18%
RGR 12%
PRIM 13%
IDCC 9%
QKLS 8%
TNDM 5%
GTLS 4%
GXDX 3%
UIS 2%
CBPO 2%
KSW 3%
PVSW 3%
CSKI 1%
WTW 0%
RAI -1%
TRMS -2%
LIWA -2%
JCOM -6%
QCOR -14%
TSRA -25%
GIGM -42%
CHCG -54%
JTX -56%

I can't recall if I profiled TNDM. I bought them this week as a "mechanical" stock. They will surely be on the list this weekend. They are involved with broadband connectivity between compteting networks. Here are their stats, prior to their 12/31 earnings:



tndm
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 59.65
- Minority Interest - Income Account -
= Income for Calculation 59.65

Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.181

Share Price 16.12
+ Market Cap Calc 551.00
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities 0.70
+ Long-Term Debt -

Cash and Short-Term Investments 158.23
- Excess Cash 158.23
= Enterprise Value 393.46






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 45.66
+ Receivables 22.03
+ Inventories -
+ Other Current Assests 21.03
+ Working Cash -
- Accounts Payable 2.30
- Current Liabilities - Other 10.42
= Invested Capital 76.00
Earnings Yield 15%
ROIC 78%

Ok, but not ungodly. It used to be my formula (which uses Fidelity financials) was in perfect sync with MFI website, but not so any more. It does look like 4q 09 is about 25% higher than 4q 08, so that improves the ratios a bit. They are definitely making money, past year the shareholder equity has gone from 180m to 240m.

There is definitely starting to be some turnover on the lists... it will be my chance to put some of that 17% to work. I will post the new stocks this weekend.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Lotsa Earnings

I will say that with a 40 stock portfolio, it is much more difficult to stay on top of earnings season. IDCC, GTLS, WTW, JCOM, GXDX, RGR all reported earnings recently. I felt GXDX and IDCC were pretty solid, but the market said, "ho-hum". Then I thought GTLS was poor, and they went up 13%.

So my advice is don't take my advice!

I did buy a new stock today (recall I am about 20% in cash). I went with a new one TNDM. Don't know much about them, but they look decent (Neutral Tandem: Oversold and Underpriced). I have not pulled the trigger on Odyssey yet... we'll see.

Weekend is coming up (hooray!). Got another monthly tracking portfolio coming of age and she looks like a doozy! We should have all taken every penny we could have laid our hands on a year ago and spread it across the top 50 over 100m! Up 92%!

Finally, here is the latest peek at the top 50 mechanical portfolio:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 106.16 - 73.93 2.18 157.2% 52.6% 104.6%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 149.47 - 73.93 2.18 169.4% 52.6% 116.8%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 48.48 - 73.93 2.18 67.1% 52.6% 14.5%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.44 - 77.42 2.18 60.0% 45.8% 14.2%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 22.92 - 68.92 2.18 76.9% 63.7% 13.1%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 19.87 - 68.92 2.18 114.3% 63.7% 50.6%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.74 - 68.92 2.18 236.2% 63.7% 172.4%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 19.22 - 68.92 2.18 13.9% 63.7% -49.8%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.14 - 87.08 1.62 5.3% 28.9% -23.6%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 5.25 - 87.89 1.62 31.9% 27.8% 4.2%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 28.86 - 87.89 1.62 26.4% 27.8% -1.4%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 17.34 - 87.89 1.62 -41.9% 27.8% -69.6%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 9.66 - 87.89 1.62 10.8% 27.8% -17.0%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 6.86 - 88.71 1.62 101.2% 26.6% 74.6%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 57.48 - 92.53 1.62 88.9% 21.3% 67.5%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 9.75 - 92.53 1.62 23.4% 21.3% 2.1%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 17.69 - 94.55 1.62 21.9% 18.8% 3.2%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 5.50 - 94.55 1.62 20.9% 18.8% 2.1%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 4.79 - 95.08 1.62 84.2% 18.1% 66.1%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 16.86 - 92.04 1.10 0.7% 21.4% -20.7%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 17.51 - 92.04 1.10 -23.7% 21.4% -45.1%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 34.91 - 87.96 1.10 47.4% 27.1% 20.3%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 55.85 0.62 98.06 1.10 24.4% 14.0% 10.4%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 6.28 - 98.81 1.10 -4.0% 13.1% -17.1%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 21.66 - 98.81 1.10 55.3% 13.1% 42.2%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 31.85 - 98.81 1.10 9.4% 13.1% -3.7%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 39.40 - 98.81 1.10 -3.9% 13.1% -17.0%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.52 - 98.81 1.10 -9.5% 13.1% -22.6%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 6.80 - 98.81 1.10 60.8% 13.1% 47.6%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 15.48 - 98.81 1.10 25.3% 13.1% 12.2%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 2.86 - 98.81 1.10 -28.5% 13.1% -41.6%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 30.12 - 98.81 1.10 22.7% 13.1% 9.6%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 11.60 - 98.81 1.10 1.3% 13.1% -11.8%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 8.28 0.05 100.79 1.10 19.9% 10.9% 9.0%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 1.10 26.9% 10.9% 16.0%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 5.96 - 102.96 1.10 16.9% 8.6% 8.3%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 3.15 - 102.96 1.10 3.6% 8.6% -4.9%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 6.17 - 102.96 1.10 35.5% 8.6% 26.9%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 1.93 - 102.60 1.10 7.8% 8.9% -1.1%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 30.15 0.35 104.77 1.10 17.3% 6.7% 10.6%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 4.24 - 106.72 1.10 14.0% 4.7% 9.2%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 107.20 - 103.56 0.59 18.6% 7.4% 11.2%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 27.98 - 103.56 0.59 2.0% 7.4% -5.4%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 59.69 - 107.13 0.59 6.6% 3.9% 2.7%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 20.83 - 107.13 0.59 18.4% 3.9% 14.5%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 4.02 - 107.13 0.59 25.6% 3.9% 21.8%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.86 - 107.13 0.59 6.9% 3.9% 3.1%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 8.04 - 109.62 0.59 15.7% 1.5% 14.2%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 25.96 - 109.43 0.59 10.2% 1.7% 8.5%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.98 - 109.57 0.59 5.3% 1.5% 3.7%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 8.85 - 111.01 0.59 -2.3% 0.2% -2.5%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.47 - 111.01 0.59 -34.7% 0.2% -34.9%
SHE 12/31/09 5.15 8.44 - 111.44 - 63.9% -0.7% 64.6%
RAI 1/15/10 53.81 53.14 - 113.64 - -1.2% -2.6% 1.4%
TRMS 1/15/10 2.45 2.42 - 113.64 - -1.2% -2.6% 1.4%
SAI 1/15/10 18.90 19.39 - 113.64 - 2.6% -2.6% 5.2%
NATH 1/28/10 14.70 15.00 - 108.57 - 2.0% 1.9% 0.1%
SMED 2/5/10 6.74 7.53 - 106.66 - 11.7% 3.8% 8.0%
SPMD 2/5/10 36.63 40.50 - 106.66 - 10.6% 3.8% 6.8%
UIS 2/5/10 34.25 35.56 - 106.66 - 3.8% 3.8% 0.1%
QKLS 2/12/10 5.69 6.06 - 108.04 - 6.5% 2.4% 4.1%
MGIC 2/12/10 1.78 1.81 - 108.04 - 1.7% 2.4% -0.7%
ESIC 2/19/10 2.07 1.98 - 111.14 - -4.3% -0.4% -3.9%
ODSY 2/19/10 17.89 17.86 - 111.14 - -0.2% -0.4% 0.3%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 20.3% 1.2% 19.1%
57.% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 17.7% -4.4% 22.1%
S&P C

110.67

Open 33.4% 20.1% 13.2%

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Say What?

Sometimes the stock market out and out befuddles me. AMED had what I thought (and the headline writers thought) a blow-out quarter and gave great guidance for 2010. On top of that was a large amount of shorts... looked like a powder keg. Check out early headlines:

  1. Amedisys Reports Fourth Quarter Revenue and Earnings and Issues 2010 Guidance
  2. InPlay: AMEDISYS beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY10 EPS and net services revs above consensus
  3. UPDATE - Amedisys Q4 profit beats Street; FY outlook tops view
  4. Amedisys 4Q profit jumps 43 percent
But it was a big bust, down 1.5% on the day. CBI was down 4.5%, I knew I didn't feel good about their earnings. HCKT reported this evening (The Hackett Group Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year Results), they didn't exactly knock the cover off the ball...

CSKI update: I did buy back into CSKI today, I had seen this song and dance several times. They were up about 9%. I will likely hold about 3 weeks post their earnings in March.

Monday, February 22, 2010

One Good, One Not So Good

Two of my stocks reported earnings today. ENDP has superb earnings, and a strong 2010 outlook (UPDATE - Endo Pharma Q4 easily beats Street, sees strong 2010). They were up YoY by 10% and think 2010 will be up another 10%. This is such a cheap stock, earning about $3.00 a share and a strong balance sheet... at under $22 share.

Then CBI had okay earnings after the bell (InPlay: CB&I beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides FY10 EPS in-line, revs below consensus) we'll see what happens tomorrow. They are up 64% for me, so I suspect expectations are pretty high.

I mentioned some time ago that I sold CSKI post earnings as they always had great earnings, popped and then crashed back down. I sold them around $18 and was kicking myself for the past two months as they climbed to about $22. Today they dropped 18% to $14.64. I am not entirely sure what drove the drop (looks like some rumor-blog). But for the brave, it may be a buying opportunity. CSKI has historically been one of my best stocks ever, I have been fortunate to buy low and sell high several times... we'll see, I have to say I am pretty negative on stocks in general right now. Cash is looking pretty good right now.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Barron's Bounce?

Two of my MFI stocks were profiled in Barron's over the weekend. Hope that works out well!

GTLS: How to Catch Lightning
UIS: In Search of a Durable Good

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Top 30 Snapshot

Every now and then, I like to take a snapshot of the top 30 stocks over 50m and look at their relative values over time. Here is the current list.


Stock EY ROC

SNTA 56% 1354%

PDLI 21% 145094%

QCOR 20% 10939%

EME 27% 343%

SMED 22% 338%

ENDP 18% 821%

VSNT 16% 914%

USMO 39% 153%

UEPS 15% 1257%

FRX 22% 176%

KHD 35% 140%

TSRA 20% 277%

SOLR 17% 590%

IMMU 15% 731%

CBI 159% 99%

XOMA 31% 119%

PRGX 18% 321%

PPD 20% 188%

JCOM 14% 672%

CHKE 13% 725%

RGR 26% 103%

PVSW 14% 526%

CBPO 20% 120%

SPMD 19% 160%

LO 13% 650%

JTX 16% 171%

UTA 19% 111%

VCLK 10% 513%

MGIC 15% 242%

IDCC 15% 122%
19-Feb Average 25% 5599%

Median 19% 329%
November 6th 33 Average 46% 770%

Median 16% 229%
July 31st Average 37% 588%

Median 20% 212%
April 16th Average 45% 740%

Median 27% 228%

So April 2009 was a great time to buy, but right now looks decent as well as the median earning yield has gone up 3 points and the median roc is up a bunch from November. Of course everyone should do their own due diligence.

I find that looking at the "average" can be misleading as you can get some very extreme Return on capital numbers as the denominator moves towards zero. But the medians are a better indicator, in my opinion.

New Mechanical Stocks February 19 2009

Before I introduce the new stocks this week, I'd like to bid adieu to the stocks from a year ago. It was an incredible group:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DELL 2/21/09 8.41 13.47 - 77.42 2.18 60.2% 46.4% 13.8%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.62 - 77.42 2.18 33.2% 46.4% -13.2%
Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 5.61 - 77.42 2.18 13.3% 46.4% -33.0%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.62 - 77.42 2.18 33.2% 46.4% -13.2%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 4.92 - 77.42 2.18 -72.5% 46.4% -118.9%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 9.61 - 77.42 2.18 218.2% 46.4% 171.8%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 6.22 - 77.42 2.18 15.0% 46.4% -31.4%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 4.70 - 77.42 2.18 47.5% 46.4% 1.1%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 9.11 - 77.42 2.18 169.5% 46.4% 123.2%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 7.96 - 77.42 2.18 51.6% 46.4% 5.3%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 9.07 - 77.42 2.18 203.3% 46.4% 157.0%

The average is up about 23% over the 46% benchmark bounce.

Had some new stocks added this week to the mechanical portfolios. Not sure if I'll be a buyer. MCIC is new to the top 30 list. I wasn't crazy about them in the top 50. ESIC is a new repeater in the top 50. let me see, it was on there 6/21/08 and went down 54%. They are an ISP that seems to be in decline... kind of like ELNK and UNTD. Then the third new stock is ODSY. This is a nursing home stock, a la CNU, AHCI and AMED. Of the 3 new stocks, they are the one I will be most likely to buy. Here are the nursing home stock stats:

odsy cnu ahci amed
66.39 32.24 13.66 214.31
0.56 - - 0.14
65.83 32.24 13.66 214.17
33.332 61.330 45.417 27.912
17.89 4.64 2.78 60.40
596.31 284.57 126.26 1,685.88
- - - -
27.60 - - 43.78
89.18 - - 179.44
98.80 27.02 35.81 45.16
98.80 27.02 35.81 12.10
614.29 257.55 90.45 1,897.00








21.76 12.40 7.83 87.02
122.41 12.91 32.51 141.01
- - - -
16.36 2.25 2.32 14.74
- - - 33.06
3.95 0.48 0.98 19.00
106.18 4.82 22.64 169.81
50.40 22.26 19.04 87.02
11% 13% 15% 11%
131% 145% 72% 246%