Thursday, December 31, 2009

Last Day of 2009/Decade

Wow, another decade has flown by, seems like just yesterday we were worried about Y2K. I am traveling still, so have limited access to my files. However, (gnashing of teeth) my early selling of stocks once again cost me. I mentioned about 10 days ago that I sold CKSW early as I wanted to get the tax benefit in 2009 (recall I had sold it briefly in the summer and bought it back so it was at a "loss"for me the 2nd time. I sold them at $5.52 and then several days later they gave very good guidance and popped back over $7. That had an opportunity cost of more than a few pennies. Then I sold CSKI early (at $18.54) as I was up 42% and it has been such a volatile stock. But it has been vbolatile in a good way, up to 22.72 this morning.

That being said, I have had a pretty good run while being in windy NH. I was down about 4% vs breakeven back then and now I am under 3%. In the same stretch I have expanded my lead over the Russell 3000 benchmark by about $5,000. However, if I hadn't sold the two stocks early, I'd be just 1.75% from breakeven (gnash).

Here are my current stocks and how they've done since I bought them:

QXM 42%
KHD 43%
WILC 190%
UEPS 56%
CBI 49%
AIRV 27%
CMFO 66%
BR 38%
UTA 34%
LIWA 22%
AMED 38%
CBPO 32%
HCKT 24%
PFE 33%
ENDP 24%
FRX 41%
AGX 15%
IDCC 15%
RTN 15%
QKLS 16%
CEU 15%
BIOC 12%
WTW 14%
BKE 18%
CYTK 10%
PRIM 8%
CF 3%
ESI 3%
KSW 1%
PVSW -4%
RGR -4%
TSRA -6%
QCOR -9%
JCOM -11%
GTLS -14%
WH -16%
GIGM -34%
JTX -19%
CHCG -51%

Then here is how the stocks I have purchased (some sold) using the mechanical approach (I am phasing completely to this in 2010) have fared:

Still Own 1













Values



Symbol Date Bought Price Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AGX 10/22/2009 $12.31 $14.20 15.3% 3.0% 12.3%
AMED 9/8/2009 $35.86 $49.50 38.0% 9.6% 28.4%
BIOC 7/30/2009 $3.70 $4.13 11.6% 14.9% -3.3%
BKE 8/17/2009 $26.66 $29.50 18.2% 14.9% 3.3%
BR 7/30/2009 $16.53 $22.74 38.4% 14.9% 23.5%
CBI 7/30/2009 $13.62 $20.33 49.3% 14.9% 34.4%
CBPO 12/4/2009 $9.15 $12.05 31.7% 2.0% 29.7%
CEU 8/26/2009 $5.40 $6.21 15.0% 9.4% 5.6%
CMFO 10/30/2009 $4.30 $7.13 65.8% 9.2% 56.6%
ESI 11/3/2009 $93.61 $96.45 3.0% 8.2% -5.1%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $32.46 40.5% 20.6% 19.9%
GIGM 7/27/2009 $5.02 $3.30 -34.3% 15.3% -49.6%
GTLS 8/27/2009 $19.50 $16.77 -14.0% 9.4% -23.4%
HCKT 5/7/2009 $2.30 $2.84 23.5% 26.2% -2.7%
IDCC 11/17/2009 $23.62 $27.10 14.7% 1.7% 13.0%
JCOM 9/30/2009 $23.00 $20.48 -11.0% 6.4% -17.3%
JTX 6/29/2009 $5.55 $4.46 -19.6% 22.8% -42.4%

6/30/2009 $5.41 $4.46 -17.5% 23.5% -41.1%
PFE 6/9/2009 $14.13 $18.50 33.2% 20.6% 12.6%
PRIM 9/30/2009 $7.30 $7.85 7.5% 6.4% 1.2%
PVSW 8/18/2009 $4.96 $4.77 -3.8% 13.8% -17.6%
QKLS 11/20/2009 $5.75 $6.65 15.7% 3.6% 12.1%
RGR 10/30/2009 $10.59 $10.10 -3.7% 9.2% -12.9%
RTN 7/27/2009 $45.61 $52.18 15.1% 15.3% -0.3%
UTA 5/29/2009 $7.90 $10.56 33.7% 23.7% 10.0%
WTW 9/21/2009 $26.00 $29.35 13.6% 5.1% 8.5%
CYTK 12/21/2009 $2.59 $2.85 10.0% 0.7% 9.3%














Average


14.4% 12.1% 2.4%
Still Own 0













Values



Symbol Date Bought Sold Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AHCI 1/5/2009 $1.11 $1.73 55.9% 0.2% 55.7%
CKSW 1/5/2009 $1.99 $5.52 177.4% 23.0% 154.4%
DBTK 3/16/2009 $6.70 $7.05 5.2% 14.7% -9.5%
DELL 2/23/2009 $8.55 $9.52 11.3% 6.5% 4.9%

2/27/2009 $8.66 $9.52 10.0% 7.4% 2.5%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $29.08 25.9% 11.1% 14.8%
GME 6/22/2009 $22.64 $25.76 13.8% 24.5% -10.7%

6/23/2009 $20.63 $22.65 9.8% 16.5% -6.7%
PFE 6/5/2009 $14.46 $16.27 13.6% 11.2% 2.4%
RST 5/7/2009 $58.50 $54.00 -15.3% 0.4% -15.7%
SEPR 8/17/2009 $17.86 $23.09 29.3% 1.4% 27.9%
SOLR 2/23/2009 $4.70 $8.09 72.1% 6.5% 65.7%
UTA 6/23/2009 $8.37 $10.90 30.2% 2.7% 27.5%
VM 6/5/2009 $4.38 $5.18 18.3% 4.5% 13.8%

6/23/2009 $3.11 $4.33 39.2% 2.7% 36.5%

6/6/2009 $4.23 $5.18 22.5% 4.5% 18.0%







Average


32.4% 8.6% 23.8%
Open and Closed

21.1% 10.9% 10.2%

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Gigm Tanks

I sometimes think I am that guy running through the TNT factory with a lit match. All-in-all, I had a super 2009, up about 72% for MFI and 48% overall, but it seems that the second half of the year I made some bad decisions. Even in the first half, I sold some stocks too early. I know it is mental, after you have a year where you lose over 40%, you tend to be gun shy when it is real money and retirement funds you're talking about.

GIGM was my latest fiasco. I think I mentioned last week that I added some post their announced selling of part of their software. It may still ultimately be the right move, but I could have certainly waited a week and done it cheaper as they must be down 20 to 25%. They finally posted their past 2 quarters of earnings and they were sub-par (UPDATE - GigaMedia posts Q3 loss, sees fall in Q4 Asian rev).

Then I also sold my CSKW a few days early as I thought I was headed out for the rest of the year and I wanted to do it before 1/1 for tax reasons. Then they pop 12% today... sigh. I'd be better off not looking.

Still a decent day and year. I did add a new stock (CYTK) and they went up 10% today, so it is not all bad :).

So here are my current holdings (may be my last post of the year):

QXM 39%
KHD 44%
UEPS 57%
WILC 147%
AIRV 25%
CBI 45%
CMFO 56%
BR 38%
UTA 31%
PFE 34%
AMED 29%
HCKT 20%
CBPO 23%
FRX 40%
ENDP 20%
LIWA 9%
RTN 16%
BIOC 12%
IDCC 11%
BKE 17%
QKLS 12%
WTW 12%
PRIM 12%
JTX 4%
CYTK 10%
CEU 7%
AGX 6%
TSRA 5%
KSW 0%
ESI 0%
PVSW -1%
RGR -3%
CF -3%
GTLS -11%
JCOM -16%
QCOR -20%
WH -11%
GIGM -36%
CHCG -52%

And here is how my "mechanical" stocks have fared:

Still Own 1













Values



Symbol Date Bought Price Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AGX 10/22/2009 $12.31 $13.08 6.2% 2.8% 3.4%
AMED 9/8/2009 $35.86 $46.21 28.9% 9.3% 19.5%
BIOC 7/30/2009 $3.70 $4.14 11.9% 14.6% -2.7%
BKE 8/17/2009 $26.66 $29.29 17.4% 14.6% 2.8%
BR 7/30/2009 $16.53 $22.73 38.4% 14.6% 23.7%
CBI 7/30/2009 $13.62 $19.81 45.4% 14.6% 30.8%
CBPO 12/4/2009 $9.15 $11.30 23.5% 1.8% 21.7%
CEU 8/26/2009 $5.40 $5.85 8.3% 9.2% -0.8%
CMFO 10/30/2009 $4.30 $6.74 56.7% 8.9% 47.8%
ESI 11/3/2009 $93.61 $93.55 -0.1% 7.9% -8.0%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $32.30 39.8% 20.3% 19.5%
GIGM 7/27/2009 $5.02 $3.23 -35.7% 15.1% -50.7%
GTLS 8/27/2009 $19.50 $17.29 -11.3% 9.1% -20.4%
HCKT 5/7/2009 $2.30 $2.75 19.6% 25.9% -6.3%
IDCC 11/17/2009 $23.62 $26.24 11.1% 1.4% 9.6%
JCOM 9/30/2009 $23.00 $19.42 -15.6% 6.1% -21.7%
JTX 6/29/2009 $5.55 $5.71 2.9% 22.5% -19.6%

6/30/2009 $5.41 $5.71 5.6% 23.2% -17.6%
PFE 6/9/2009 $14.13 $18.61 34.0% 20.3% 13.6%
PRIM 9/30/2009 $7.30 $8.21 12.5% 6.1% 6.4%
PVSW 8/18/2009 $4.96 $4.90 -1.2% 13.5% -14.7%
QKLS 11/20/2009 $5.75 $6.42 11.7% 3.3% 8.3%
RGR 10/30/2009 $10.59 $10.18 -3.0% 8.9% -11.9%
RTN 7/27/2009 $45.61 $52.55 15.9% 15.1% 0.8%
UTA 5/29/2009 $7.90 $10.35 31.0% 23.4% 7.6%
WTW 9/21/2009 $26.00 $28.87 11.7% 4.8% 6.9%
CYTK 12/21/2009 $2.59 $2.85 10.0% 0.5% 9.5%














Average


13.9% 11.8% 2.1%
Still Own 0













Values



Symbol Date Bought Sold Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AHCI 1/5/2009 $1.11 $1.73 55.9% 0.2% 55.7%
CKSW 1/5/2009 $1.99 $5.52 177.4% 23.0% ######
DBTK 3/16/2009 $6.70 $7.05 5.2% 14.7% -9.5%
DELL 2/23/2009 $8.55 $9.52 11.3% 6.5% 4.9%

2/27/2009 $8.66 $9.52 10.0% 7.4% 2.5%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $29.08 25.9% 11.1% 14.8%
GME 6/22/2009 $22.64 $25.76 13.8% 24.5% -10.7%

6/23/2009 $20.63 $22.65 9.8% 16.5% -6.7%
PFE 6/5/2009 $14.46 $16.27 13.6% 11.2% 2.4%
RST 5/7/2009 $58.50 $54.00 -15.3% 0.4% -15.7%
SEPR 8/17/2009 $17.86 $23.09 29.3% 1.4% 27.9%
SOLR 2/23/2009 $4.70 $8.09 72.1% 6.5% 65.7%
UTA 6/23/2009 $8.37 $10.90 30.2% 2.7% 27.5%
VM 6/5/2009 $4.38 $5.18 18.3% 4.5% 13.8%

6/23/2009 $3.11 $4.33 39.2% 2.7% 36.5%

6/6/2009 $4.23 $5.18 22.5% 4.5% 18.0%







Average


32.4% 8.6% 23.8%
Open and Closed

20.8% 10.7% 10.0%

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Mini Comeback?

Well, you know what they say about "the best laid plans"! I got stuck in Bermuda yesterday due to that nasty weather going up the US Seaboard. Won't get to leave until Wednesday as the planes are still pretty backed up.

I have mentioned several times that I like to use my monthly tacking portfolios as a barometer on MFI in general. This is because MFI has proved to be very streaky. It was starting to look like the streak was ending as about a month ago some of the more recent monthly portfolios were starting to lag the benchmark. But they're all ahead again. The most recent 20 months are all leading. I do think the uptick of M&A helped.

No news stocks added to my mechanical portfolios this weekend. The list is becoming relatively static again.

Thought I'd take a look at the performance of bio-tech stocks in my mechanical portfolio. They have outperformed the overall by a bit. Here are the numbers and the individual stocks:


Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
Biotech 36.1% 16.0% 20.2%
Totals Top 30 23.7% 5.4% 18.4%
Totals Top 50 19.7% 1.0% 18.8%

Symbol Date Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
OMPI 3/12/08 9.55 4.05 - 131.36 2.08 -57.6% -46.0% -11.6%
SCMP 8/31/08 9.50 5.92 - 128.79 2.49 -37.7% -17.8% -19.9%
ERES 11/15/08 4.65 6.25 - 86.62 2.31 34.4% 29.2% 5.2%
MAXY 12/8/08 5.80 5.54 - 87.93 2.31 -4.5% 28.9% -33.4%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 3.30 - 87.16 1.59 220.4% 28.3% 192.1%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 5.30 - 77.42 1.59 -2.0% 44.4% -46.4%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.75 - 68.92 1.59 236.9% 62.2% 174.7%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 24.28 - 68.92 1.59 43.9% 62.2% -18.3%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.29 - 87.08 1.03 7.9% 27.7% -19.8%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 5.18 - 95.08 1.03 99.2% 17.0% 82.2%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.09 - 98.81 0.51 -20.6% 12.1% -32.6%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 9.8% 17.1%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 2.64 - 102.96 0.51 -13.2% 7.5% -20.7%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 6.40 - 107.13 - 100.0% 2.9% 97.1%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.11 - 107.13 - -13.9% 2.9% -16.7%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.97 - 109.57 - 5.1% 0.6% 4.5%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.64 - 111.01 - -11.0% -0.7% -10.3%