Tuesday, November 29, 2011

November 25th 2011 Tracking Portfolio

I like to list stocks that qualify as "new" or "dividend" stocks for those of you that are interested.

For my most recent tracking portfolio, the following stocks qualify as dividend stocks:

Stock Initial Price End Price Yield
KLAC 42.08 43.30 2.9%
AMAT 10.16 10.25 3.1%
MSFT 24.30 24.84 3.3%
CMTL 29.28 29.50 3.5%
RTN 43.12 43.69 3.9%
HRB 14.41 15.18 4.2%
STRA 88.03 91.01 4.5%
CHKE 12.05 12.27 5.0%
DLX 19.79 21.37 5.1%
PETS 8.96 9.17 5.6%
PDLI 6.03 6.24 7.5%
USMO 13.07 13.47 7.7%
GNI 104.83 106.60 12.4%
NOC 53.42 55.13 15.6%

Then the following stocks are "new":

Stock Initial Price End Price
OSIR 4.13 4.30
NSU 5.10 5.52
NBIX 6.00 6.18
CJES 19.25 19.70


I have been active in my dividend portfolio of late. I have added three stocks, FCX, HPQ and STO. Then today I added shares to KMF and MNDO. KMF is interesting as it is trading at an 11% discount to it's NAV. That is much lower than it's average of -3.85%:

As of 11/28/2011

Share
Price
NAVPremium/
Discount
Current$21.99$24.91-11.72%
52 Wk Avg$24.11$25.08-3.85%
52 Wk High$25.57$27.205.67%
52 Wk Low$19.60$22.36-13.82%
Distribution Rate7.46%
Distribution Amount$0.4100
Distribution FrequencyQuarterly

Monday, November 28, 2011

November 26 2010 Tracking Portfolio

As my readers know, I create a tracking portfolio direct from the official screen of the top 50 stocks over $100m once a month. I then "hold" this portfolio for a year and track it's results versus a benchmark Russell 3000. I have been doing this since January 2006.

11th Straight Losing Portfolio

The November 2010 portfolio closed a loser, down 8.5% while the Russell 3000 was up 1.4%. That made it the 11th straight MFI portfolio to lose to the benchmark. To make matters worse, of the 11 open portfolios, only one is "winning". It has been tough sledding of late.

Here are the 50 stocks in descending order:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change 52 week low Mkt Cap
CNXT 1.38 2.40 74% N/A 867
CBST 23.34 35.89 54% 20.81 272
AGX 8.54 12.29 44% 8.11 112
VPHM 16.40 23.00 40% 14.62 1,289
LO 79.19 109.27 38% 72.40 2,572
CNU 4.76 6.38 34% N/A 140
APOL 34.46 45.82 33% 33.75 5,555
IDCC 33.89 42.53 25% 32.75 2,003
TNAV 6.95 8.58 23% 6.19 147
MHP 33.48 41.20 23% 33.80 13,036
HRB 12.23 14.94 22% 11.43 3,591
GLPW 18.55 22.07 19% 18.59 289
MRX 26.74 31.19 17% 24.97 1,750
PDLI 5.35 6.19 16% 4.66 619
DELL 13.65 14.98 10% 12.99 474
GTAT 7.09 7.77 10% 6.40 697
GME 20.50 22.36 9% 18.34 186
PPD 61.86 66.50 8% N/A 598
SNDK 44.95 47.74 6% 32.24 8,868
CMTL 28.89 29.66 3% 23.51 204
MSFT 24.60 24.87 1% 23.65 225,009
SNTS 2.82 2.85 1% 2.40 186
IPXL 19.15 19.20 0% 14.46 1,355
DLX 21.27 21.15 -1% 17.50 1,711
UIS 22.65 22.39 -1% 13.77 376
RTN 44.85 43.94 -2% 38.35 16,613
TER 12.58 12.11 -4% 10.37 206
EME 26.32 24.30 -8% 18.25 714
FRX 31.85 29.15 -8% 28.56 300
UNTD 5.80 5.11 -12% 4.80 987
USMO 15.59 13.53 -13% 12.29 975
VALU 13.53 10.90 -19% 9.95 518
TSRA 20.65 16.37 -21% 11.13 1,984
CSGS 19.10 14.22 -26% 12.13 317
PRSC 16.61 11.33 -32% 8.35 210
ELNK 9.05 6.11 -32% 5.97 1,216
OSK 29.23 19.29 -34% 14.07 2,679
ASTX 2.78 1.66 -40% 1.60 169
MPAA 12.64 7.36 -42% 6.88 478
ARO 26.90 15.02 -44% 9.16 2,324
VECO 44.09 23.51 -47% 21.99 1,587
LINC 14.10 7.06 -50% 6.88 488
LHCG 26.39 12.80 -51% 12.34 268
PWER 9.28 4.17 -55% 4.05 353
ASYS 19.94 8.39 -58% 7.12 744
AFAM 35.53 13.69 -61% 12.50 2,324
CECO 18.72 6.97 -63% 6.85 1,414
AMED 29.00 10.74 -63% 9.12 316
NEP 6.53 2.35 -64% 1.85 165
SCEI 7.05 1.21 -83% 0.65 119

All Portfolios

Here is a listing of all portfolios (open and closed) back to January 2006:

Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1%
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1%
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3%
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4%
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4%
1/3/2011 -15.4% -5.5%
1/28/2011 -16.7% -5.7%
2/25/2011 -16.9% -9.2%
3/24/2011 -16.0% -8.7%
4/21/2011 -19.4% -10.9%
5/27/2011 -16.1% -10.7%
6/24/2011 -14.1% -6.4%
7/29/2011 -13.3% -7.7%
8/26/2011 -2.0% 1.8%
9/30/2011 6.8% 6.0%
10/28/2011 -9.1% -7.1%

Start With $100,000

I compare where you would be if you started with $100,000 spread over first 12 months. I find this is a more useful measure as average percent change is different with greater volatility (i.e. +10% and down 10% will put you in a different ending place than +20% and down 20%).

Category Value
Total 101,719
Total New 98,461
Total Dividend 209,358
Total Russell 3K 104,899

This shows you'd have been better off by $3,000 in the Russell 3000 than MFI. I also show two alternatives to the standard portfolios, a "new" option and a "dividend" option. A stock makes the new option if it hasn't been in the prior 12 portfolios. A stock makes the dividend option if it has at least a 2.6% yield. Clearly the dividend approach has been the winner.

The dividend stocks did well again, up 1.9%. Here are the dividend stocks:

Stock Percent Change Yield
LO 38% 5.4%
MHP 23% 2.8%
HRB 22% 4.9%
PDLI 16% 18.7%
DLX -1% 4.7%
RTN -2% 3.2%
UNTD -12% 6.9%
USMO -13% 12.8%
VALU -19% 3.0%
ELNK -32% 6.9%

It is getting late, I will post some comments on the new portfolio later this week.