Sunday, August 28, 2011

Spetember 2 2010 Tracking Portfolio

Another Monthly Portfolio Finishes Behind

Tropical Storm Irene is probably about 35 miles south of us right now. The power just went out. Thankfully, the house we just bought has a generator built into the house than runs on natural gas and it kicked in one minute after the lights went out. That is a real luxury.

I closed the September 2nd 2010 tracking portfolio today. It is a week early, but I had started it a week late last year and I had two September portfolios, so I am shifting by a week to get back on track. As a reminder, I create a tracking portfolio of 50 stocks > $100m every month and hypothetically hold them for a year. I have been doing this since January 2006.

The portfolio lost to the Russell 3000 going up 7.3% vs the benchmark gain of 10.1%. That makes it the eighth straight portfolio to close behind the benchmark. To make matters worse, all 11 open portfolios are also trailing. One can seriously question whether the MFI approach is working. Here is the listing of stocks followed by how all portfolios have fared:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
IDCC 25.49 69.06 171%
CNU 3.34 6.22 86%
TNAV 5.47 9.25 69%
CNXT 1.5 2.4 60%
CBST 22.45 32.28 44%
LO 76.64 110.11 44%
VPHM 13.09 18.66 43%
GXDX 17.95 25 39%
GMAN 10.65 14.82 39%
SNTS 2.25 3.11 38%
SNTA 2.89 3.97 37%
GTAT 8.5 11.39 34%
JCOM 22.19 29.35 32%
MD 48.22 62.81 30%
MRX 29.21 37.45 28%
PDLI 4.52 5.75 27%
AGX 8.09 10 24%
DLX 16.92 20.69 22%
IMMU 3 3.66 22%
ZLCS 1.31 1.52 16%
FRX 29.19 33.31 14%
USMO 13.17 15.02 14%
PPD 58.93 66.5 13%
IPXL 16.92 18.82 11%
VALU 10.88 11.94 10%
SUPG 2.03 2.1 3%
UNTD 5.06 5.1 1%
APOL 44.67 44.86 0%
TNDM 11.5 11.21 -3%
SNDK 36.01 34.8 -3%
RTN 44.16 41.59 -6%
LHCG 20.89 19.21 -8%
EME 24.24 22.17 -9%
CECO 18.25 16.48 -10%
TSRA 16.08 13.77 -14%
ELNK 8.35 7.09 -15%
CHKE 17.02 14.35 -16%
KIRK 12.29 9.39 -24%
AFAM 25.88 19.34 -25%
RST 17.24 12.56 -27%
OSK 25.57 18.28 -29%
PRSC 14.66 10.46 -29%
CSGS 19.04 12.82 -33%
UIS 24.92 16.75 -33%
AMED 24.43 16.08 -34%
DRWI 6.32 3.85 -39%
FSYS 34.46 19.84 -42%
ARO 21.81 11.07 -49%
GTIV 21.55 7.29 -66%
JGBO.PK 9.61 0.5 -95%

Some obvious stinkers in there, a bunch of home health providers that struggled along with the infamous JBGO.

Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1%
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1%
9/24/2010 3.4% 4.4%
10/29/2010 -8.2% 0.7%
11/26/2010 -4.0% -0.4%
1/3/2011 -11.9% -7.2%
1/28/2011 -14.0% -7.4%
2/25/2011 -14.0% -10.9%
3/24/2011 -14.3% -10.3%
4/21/2011 -16.9% -12.5%
5/27/2011 -14.7% -12.3%
6/24/2011 -12.0% -8.1%
7/29/2011 -12.2% -9.4%
8/26/2011 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Total 4.1% 3.0%

Special Portfolios

As people may know, I also track two special sub-portfolios. One is called "new" and only has stocks that have not been in a tracking portfolio in the prior 12 months. The second is called "dividend" and only picks stocks with at leats a dividend of 2.6% (per Yahoo Finance). The dividend portfolio continues to way out perform (it was up 9% and is beating the Russell in 10 of the open 11 portfolios).

In addition, I do like to track performance solely using percentages. This is because a portfolio that goes up50% one year and down 50% the next leaves you at a worse absolute $ amount than one that goes up 5% and then down 5%. The chart below shows how much money you'd have if you spread $100,000 evenly over the first 12 months:

Category Value
Total 105,647
Total New 100,786
Total Dividend 205,731
Total Russell 3K 103,910

As you can see, MFI is just barely beating the Russell 3000 over 5+ years.

Finally, I have created a new August 26 2011 portfolio. Here are the stocks in the "new" portfolio and more importantly the "dividend" portfolio:

New

Stock Initial Price
MIPS 5.13
KFY 15.36
KLAC 35.47
DLB 33.50
AMAT 11.06

Dividend

Stock Initial Price
UNTD 5.10
USMO 15.02
STRA 92.67
PETS 10.00
PDLI 5.75
NOC 52.16
MDP 24.01
KLAC 35.47
DLX 20.69
CMTL 27.20
CHKE 14.35
HRB 13.96

Top 200 August 26th 2011

Top 200 List as Irene Hits Connecticut

It is a very wet Sunday morning here in Connecticut. The irony has not been lost on me that I moved from hurricane-prone Bermuda this summer and will likely be getting a dose of tropical storm Irene throughout the day.

I have once again re-created my top 200 list. I did find it interesting this week that Steve Alexander of MagicDiligence (3 Replacement Stocks for Magic Formula Investing ) published a list of stocks that should be in the top of the list, but aren't. He does state that no one knows the exact formula that Joel Greenblatt uses, but I'd respectfully suggest that I am pretty darned close here. As an example, he says he can't figure out how KFY gets on the list, well they are number 58 for me.

Here is my list:

Ticker Rank Date Stock Price Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield
STV 1 8/27 4.71 278 45% 1898% 0.0%
LMLP 2 8/27 2.61 76 34% 12172% 0.0%
SUPG 3 8/27 2.10 128 242% 480% 0.0%
MAIL 4 8/27 5.83 58 37% 850% 22.0%
DEPO 5 8/27 5.72 309 27% 5729% 0.0%
ACAD 6 8/27 1.26 63 26% 2450% 0.0%
TNAV 7 8/27 9.25 422 28% 756% 0.0%
PDLI 8 8/27 5.75 1,070 23% 637869% 14.0%
AGX 9 8/27 10.00 137 23% 1051% 0.0%
TSRA 10 8/27 13.77 708 51% 256% 0.0%
XNY 11 8/27 2.20 128 1843% 213% 0.0%
VECO 12 8/27 35.46 1,525 35% 262% 0.0%
BPI 13 8/27 21.51 1,246 25% 365% 0.0%
NVMI 14 8/27 6.56 178 31% 275% 0.0%
LACO 15 8/27 2.46 65 425% 187% 0.0%
ESI 16 8/27 70.91 1,966 28% 295% 0.0%
CRAY 17 8/27 5.40 189 49% 194% 0.0%
MNTA 18 8/27 16.35 834 32% 212% 0.0%
CPLA 19 8/27 31.65 496 29% 210% 0.0%
APOL 20 8/27 44.86 6,296 24% 257% 0.0%
GAME 21 8/27 5.51 1,568 19% 547% 0.0%
SNDK 22 8/27 34.80 8,486 21% 320% 0.0%
PRX 23 8/27 28.73 1,055 23% 242% 0.0%
AFAM 24 8/27 19.34 181 34% 140% 0.0%
UIS 25 8/27 16.75 722 29% 140% 0.0%
RIMG 26 8/27 14.08 135 74% 113% 1.5%
DELL 27 8/27 14.69 27,485 20% 232% 0.0%
FRX 28 8/27 33.31 9,539 20% 202% 0.0%
VPHM 29 8/27 18.66 1,669 18% 287% 0.0%
KLIC 30 8/27 8.65 641 51% 109% 0.0%
SAVE 31 8/27 12.14 872 16% 546% 0.0%
ASYS 32 8/27 10.82 107 129% 100% 0.0%
HRB 33 8/27 13.96 4,273 17% 262% 4.4%
USMO 34 8/27 15.02 339 19% 196% 13.3%
LPS 35 8/27 16.19 1,389 19% 189% 2.6%
LTXC 36 8/27 6.17 311 31% 110% 0.0%
UEPS 37 8/27 6.59 300 25% 123% 0.0%
CREG 38 8/27 1.33 73 25% 120% 0.0%
RIMM 39 8/27 29.18 15,306 35% 104% 0.0%
EGY 40 8/27 6.01 349 48% 97% 0.0%
CECO 41 8/27 16.48 1,245 36% 102% 0.0%
PWER 42 8/27 7.71 1,082 32% 102% 0.0%
AMAT 43 8/27 11.06 14,710 25% 113% 2.0%
KLAC 44 8/27 35.47 6,061 25% 114% 3.2%
AMED 45 8/27 16.08 466 26% 107% 0.0%
CNGL 46 8/27 1.65 66 148% 81% 0.0%
LIWA 47 8/27 6.49 197 55% 84% 0.0%
STRA 48 8/27 92.67 1,088 18% 171% 4.4%
MSFT 49 8/27 25.25 215,155 15% 333% 2.6%
AVEO 50 8/27 16.29 600 15% 334% 0.0%
CBPO 51 8/27 8.01 206 33% 89% 0.0%
USNA 52 8/27 25.80 406 20% 126% 0.0%
SPRD 53 8/27 17.42 945 15% 343% 0.3%
CHKE 54 8/27 14.35 122 15% 356% 8.1%
CYOU 55 8/27 36.54 1,948 14% 387% 0.0%
TER 56 8/27 11.84 2,729 20% 121% 0.0%
LRCX 57 8/27 37.30 4,666 25% 102% 0.0%
KFY 58 8/27 15.36 724 16% 194% 0.0%
AZN 59 8/27 45.96 63,747 19% 125% 5.9%
NOK 60 8/27 5.92 21,981 19% 119% 9.3%
MANT 61 8/27 36.10 1,328 17% 149% 0.0%
PRSC 62 8/27 10.46 139 18% 135% 0.0%
CMTL 63 8/27 27.20 881 23% 100% 3.8%
DLB 64 8/27 33.50 3,764 15% 255% 0.0%
OSK 65 8/27 18.28 1,676 28% 83% 0.0%
GNI 66 8/27 105.64 158 14% 498% 12.0%
PETS 67 8/27 10.00 218 18% 122% 5.0%
DLX 68 8/27 20.69 1,069 15% 231% 5.0%
GTIV 69 8/27 7.29 225 18% 128% 0.0%
UNTD 70 8/27 5.10 452 16% 171% 8.0%
ENTR 71 8/27 4.04 361 26% 81% 0.0%
CNTF 72 8/27 2.34 124 818% 65% 0.0%
NOC 73 8/27 52.16 14,980 19% 107% 16.2%
MDP 74 8/27 24.01 1,096 17% 121% 4.1%
GEDU 75 8/27 5.06 132 36% 72% 0.0%
CTP 76 8/27 5.45 41 28% 77% 0.0%
DV 77 8/27 42.59 2,977 19% 105% 0.6%
MEDW 78 8/27 10.33 85 13% 688% 0.0%
NSR 79 8/27 24.30 1,823 15% 185% 0.0%
RTN 80 8/27 41.59 14,852 18% 112% 3.9%
WSTG 81 8/27 11.39 53 19% 101% 6.8%
MBND 82 8/27 3.05 59 14% 201% 0.0%
HPQ 83 8/27 24.82 51,626 20% 91% 1.4%
CSCO 84 8/27 15.32 84,199 14% 220% 0.8%
MDCO 85 8/27 14.22 772 13% 307% 0.0%
MED 86 8/27 15.52 224 18% 102% 0.0%
AIXG 87 8/27 21.85 2,223 22% 82% 3.9%
ADI 88 8/27 32.38 9,997 15% 144% 3.0%
CUB 89 8/27 40.70 1,088 14% 226% 0.7%
GME 90 8/27 22.78 3,239 20% 86% 0.0%
MKSI 91 8/27 23.25 1,230 30% 67% 0.7%
ARO 92 8/27 11.07 900 32% 65% 0.0%
CPIX 93 8/27 5.86 121 17% 109% 0.0%
NEP 94 8/27 1.90 60 2098% 59% 0.0%
IPXL 95 8/27 18.82 1,273 18% 92% 0.0%
MRVL 96 8/27 12.89 8,032 15% 154% 0.0%
CBST 97 8/27 32.28 1,954 14% 202% 0.0%
GURE 98 8/27 2.03 72 817% 58% 0.0%
CEL 99 8/27 21.56 2,145 18% 90% 17.1%
DGIT 100 8/27 20.41 566 17% 99% 0.0%
LHCG 101 8/27 19.21 352 20% 79% 0.0%
LINC 102 8/27 9.55 215 43% 60% 8.0%
MIPS 103 8/27 5.13 278 12% 1015% 0.0%
NVLS 104 8/27 27.43 2,251 21% 76% 0.0%
CNH 105 8/27 28.45 6,856 107% 57% 0.0%
CHOP 106 8/27 3.56 211 76% 57% 0.0%
EME 107 8/27 22.17 1,521 17% 92% 0.0%
EDS 108 8/27 3.40 106 230% 55% 0.0%
HITK 109 8/27 27.01 350 22% 68% 0.0%
CSGS 110 8/27 12.82 426 18% 81% 0.0%
CA 111 8/27 19.92 9,980 12% 307% 0.9%
MCO 112 8/27 29.77 6,892 12% 277% 1.7%
ASEI 113 8/27 65.33 610 16% 94% 2.4%
BSQR 114 8/27 4.56 53 12% 471% 0.0%
BRKS 115 8/27 8.97 584 25% 60% 0.0%
WU 116 8/27 16.26 10,338 11% 710% 1.7%
COOL 117 8/27 2.30 93 14% 127% 0.0%
GMAN 118 8/27 14.82 286 15% 97% 0.0%
SAI 119 8/27 14.44 5,025 17% 81% 0.0%
GPS 120 8/27 16.28 8,873 22% 62% 2.7%
GD 121 8/27 61.28 22,760 16% 81% 3.0%
LPH 122 8/27 1.09 111 110% 50% 0.0%
OVTI 123 8/27 17.27 1,061 25% 58% 0.0%
PWRD 124 8/27 21.87 1,158 17% 75% 0.0%
ICON 125 8/27 18.13 1,367 11% 466% 0.0%
ATVI 126 8/27 11.28 12,972 11% 703% 1.5%
MYGN 127 8/27 19.28 1,698 12% 261% 0.0%
DISH 128 8/27 22.24 9,948 16% 78% 0.0%
INTC 129 8/27 19.77 107,569 17% 76% 3.8%
LXK 130 8/27 30.36 2,429 27% 55% 0.0%
EXPR 131 8/27 17.59 1,563 14% 112% 0.0%
TNH 132 8/27 178.24 3,297 11% 432% 6.5%
YONG 133 8/27 4.55 223 35% 50% 0.0%
GSIT 134 8/27 4.82 147 25% 54% 0.0%
LLTC 135 8/27 27.42 6,405 12% 161% 3.6%
LO 136 8/27 110.11 15,631 11% 722% 4.5%
QLGC 137 8/27 13.29 1,406 14% 97% 0.0%
LLY 138 8/27 35.77 39,846 17% 70% 5.5%
GCI 139 8/27 10.69 2,608 22% 56% 1.6%
WSTL 140 8/27 2.47 173 25% 53% 0.0%
OSIR 141 8/27 5.27 175 11% 555% 0.0%
MGIC 142 8/27 4.16 154 11% 588% 0.0%
TRW 143 8/27 37.86 5,088 21% 57% 0.0%
GILD 144 8/27 38.73 31,015 12% 165% 0.0%
MFW 145 8/27 21.40 417 12% 133% 0.0%
OMPI 146 8/27 10.09 188 13% 109% 0.0%
PTNR 147 8/27 10.68 1,666 16% 71% 18.3%
DNB 148 8/27 65.56 3,258 11% 894% 2.2%
VCI 149 8/27 24.17 1,213 14% 103% 0.0%
SPU 150 8/27 2.15 57 709% 44% 0.0%
ERIC 151 8/27 10.77 34,798 15% 75% 3.3%
KONG 152 8/27 4.21 158 35% 46% 0.0%
LEA 153 8/27 44.16 4,743 19% 59% 0.6%
PRGS 154 8/27 19.94 1,381 12% 199% 0.0%
ASMI 155 8/27 25.87 1,682 27% 49% 2.4%
BTM 156 8/27 20.99 4,127 30% 47% 8.0%
HRS 157 8/27 37.69 4,700 16% 69% 2.7%
NTCT 158 8/27 12.61 547 11% 351% 0.0%
MHP 159 8/27 40.59 12,550 11% 276% 2.4%
NATH 160 8/27 19.00 99 12% 137% 0.0%
CGA 161 8/27 4.05 108 78% 44% 0.0%
UG 162 8/27 14.21 65 11% 217% 5.0%
BID 163 8/27 34.83 2,420 15% 72% 0.6%
LMT 164 8/27 73.25 25,388 14% 88% 4.0%
GPIC 165 8/27 7.44 61 24% 49% 0.0%
ITRN 166 8/27 12.26 257 15% 66% 8.2%
WWE 167 8/27 9.06 677 15% 74% 13.4%
PRIM 168 8/27 10.37 530 15% 66% 1.0%
FCX 169 8/27 44.53 42,571 24% 48% 2.1%
CACI 170 8/27 52.42 1,672 13% 100% 0.0%
VG 171 8/27 3.28 802 12% 152% 0.0%
NTRI 172 8/27 12.16 332 13% 88% 5.8%
BLC 173 8/27 5.09 529 14% 78% 1.0%
SBGI 174 8/27 7.62 619 14% 77% 3.3%
CVVT 175 8/27 2.30 82 87% 42% 0.0%
AEIS 176 8/27 9.81 433 31% 45% 0.0%
NANO 177 8/27 15.58 365 20% 52% 0.0%
BBY 178 8/27 24.79 9,847 23% 48% 2.5%
STO 179 8/27 23.18 73,773 39% 43% 4.9%
BKE 180 8/27 38.20 1,807 13% 91% 9.0%
TXN 181 8/27 25.52 30,114 15% 64% 2.1%
MPAA 182 8/27 9.81 120 12% 138% 0.0%
RBCN 183 8/27 13.22 316 29% 45% 0.0%
UFPT 184 8/27 14.92 104 18% 54% 0.0%
STEC 185 8/27 8.67 456 24% 46% 0.0%
QNST 186 8/27 10.52 522 11% 349% 0.0%
IOSP 187 8/27 25.13 616 16% 59% 0.0%
ALV 188 8/27 52.61 4,945 18% 54% 3.2%
MRX 189 8/27 37.45 2,514 10% 874% 0.8%
MCRL 190 8/27 9.93 626 14% 69% 1.5%
LNCR 191 8/27 20.70 1,966 14% 72% 4.0%
RTEC 192 8/27 6.98 224 32% 42% 0.0%
ALTR 193 8/27 36.30 11,976 11% 340% 0.7%
CEPH 194 8/27 80.63 7,120 12% 91% 0.0%
LLL 195 8/27 64.61 6,926 16% 58% 2.8%
PBI 196 8/27 19.06 3,890 12% 105% 7.8%
TNDM 197 8/27 11.21 386 17% 54% 0.0%
CTE 198 8/27 2.35 155 95% 38% 0.0%
MD 199 8/27 62.81 3,061 11% 196% 0.0%
AMSC 200 8/27 6.40 314 99% 38% 0.0%

Comparison With Official List

As people know, I do like to compare my list with the official list to see the differences/omissions. The primary one is GT Solar, which changed their ticker symbol. I need to change my logic of my program for the new symbol, but have been too lazy. Fidelity's stock research page still has them under SOLR, so my program doesn't find them.

Ticker Mkt Cap Date My Ranking
ACAD 65.94 25-Aug 6
AFAM 176.31 25-Aug 24
AMED 467.48 25-Aug 45
APOL 6,120.50 25-Aug 20
AMAT 14,250.28 25-Aug 43
AGX 136.02 25-Aug 9
HRB 4,137.71 25-Aug 33
CPLA 471.34 25-Aug 19
CECO 1,197.38 25-Aug 41
CHKE 122.15 25-Aug 54
NEP 60.10 25-Aug 94
CMTL 693.34 25-Aug 63
CRAY 195.90 25-Aug 17
DELL 26,061.14 25-Aug 27
DLX 1,023.58 25-Aug 68
DLB 3,583.42 25-Aug 64
FRX 9,097.89 25-Aug 28
GTAT 1,381.77 25-Aug #N/A
GTIV 223.73 25-Aug 69
ESI 1,894.04 25-Aug 16
KLAC 5,762.23 25-Aug 44
KFY 696.11 25-Aug 58
KLIC 599.80 25-Aug 30
LMLP 68.89 25-Aug 2
LTXC 297.16 25-Aug 36
LRCX 4,495.80 25-Aug 57
LPS 1,320.14 25-Aug 35
MIPS 256.75 25-Aug 103
MANT 1,303.94 25-Aug 61
MDP 1,067.80 25-Aug 74
MSFT 205,798.32 25-Aug 49
MNTA 831.92 25-Aug 18
NOC 14,243.80 25-Aug 73
NVMI 162.15 25-Aug 14
PDLI 796.83 25-Aug 8
PRX 1,033.62 25-Aug 23
PETS 211.10 25-Aug 67
PWER 750.86 25-Aug 42
PRSC 130.97 25-Aug 62
SNDK 8,107.37 25-Aug 22
STRA 1,088.86 25-Aug 48
SUPG 123.87 25-Aug 3
TNAV 352.99 25-Aug 7
TER 2,109.26 25-Aug 56
TSRA 689.77 25-Aug 10
USMO 331.52 25-Aug 34
UIS 708.48 25-Aug 25
EGY 336.54 25-Aug 40
VECO 1,418.86 25-Aug 12
VPHM 1,378.98 25-Aug 29

New Stocks to Top 50 and 100 Lists

I do try and list all new stocks to top 30 and 50 lists in past 52 weeks. We do have a few winners... or is that losers? AMAT is new to both lists as anyone who manufactures semiconducter machines seems to be there now. MNTA is also new to the top 30 list.

My Portfolio

I don't have my portfolio in front of me right now, but it does continue to struggle. I don't think anything further needs to be stated.