Saturday, July 28, 2018

MFI Monthly Tracking Portfolio - July 28th, 2017

MFI Monthly Tracking Portfolio - July 28th, 2017

Another month/year has flown by. And so it is time to look at another monthly tracking portfolio as we hit the end of July 2018.  As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

People ask, does MFI not work anymore?  I am not sure. Perhaps 12 years isn't long enough. Perhaps it works better at a higher market cap cut off (I believe this to be true).  I think too many stocks make the screen over the years by "mistake"... that is they are not true value/cheap stocks. In 2011, we had a bunch of Chinese Reverse Merger stocks that hurt that year and were out and out frauds.  Then we have also had a number of stocks that have a one time spike in earnings that fools the formula.  Frankly, it might do better if instead of a trailing 12 month income look, it used a trailing 24 month look on income, to filter out the one time spikes.

But even with that being said, Value stocks have not exactly been in favor the past couple of years, although this appears to be changing (although painstakingly slowly).

Onward

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  Then we had a 13 month winning streak. Now we have an 10 month losing streak, getting whooped 16.1% to 12.5% this month. This has been such a horrid stretch.  The past 10 closed portfolios have been absolutely stomped, 18.0% to 9.0% on average. So I suppose we should feel good "just" losing by 3.6 points  Ee-gads.

Guess what?  August 2017 is leading by 8 points, perhaps the streak will finally end.. It has been rugged.  Greenblatt warned there would be times people would want to quit and this would ensure in working down the road.

Things seem to be eroding again (I certainly saw that in my real results this past month).  Last month, the 10 newest tracking portfolios were beating benchmark by an average of 5 points.  Now just 5 of them are leading and overall average differential has dropped to just 60 basis points. Did I mention it has been rugged?

Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order (from the portfolio that just hit a year):


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap 
USNA              56.65         130.80 130.9%         1,382
MSB              12.13           27.35 125.4%            175
SYNT              19.73           40.67 106.1%         1,658
DIN              38.55           71.81 86.3%            755
BPT              16.56           27.50 66.1%            437
SCMP              10.85           18.00 65.9%            502
EGRX              50.48           80.45 59.4%            863
CPLA              68.62         104.55 52.4%            819
BKE              16.07           23.15 44.0%            848
FFIV            121.72         174.23 43.1%         7,630
CSCO              30.53           42.57 39.4%     157,787
GNTX              16.74           22.64 35.3%         4,972
MCFT              18.44           24.53 33.0%            355
NCMI                6.46             8.25 27.7%            453
ESRX              62.90           79.45 26.3%       35,996
HPQ              18.69           23.23 24.3%       32,337
TRNC              13.03           16.06 23.3%            432
MNKD                1.32             1.54 16.7%            123
CARS              24.29           28.33 16.6%         1,728
AMAG              19.60           22.05 12.5%            670
IDCC              73.60           81.40 10.6%         2,638
PDLI                2.32             2.55 9.9%            398
NHTC              22.20           23.35 5.2%            283
MSGN              21.85           22.85 4.6%         1,633
AVID                5.19             5.36 3.3%            218
UIS              12.50           12.80 2.4%            648
MIK              19.88           20.29 2.1%         3,845
EGOV              15.77           16.05 1.8%         1,059
WNC              18.77           19.10 1.8%         1,185
NSR              33.30           33.50 0.6%         1,844
RGR              55.84           54.25 -2.8%         1,002
DISCA              26.80           26.03 -2.9%       15,491
GHC            585.97         564.75 -3.6%         3,303
UTHR            128.35         122.98 -4.2%         5,828
VEC              34.61           31.47 -9.1%            372
OMC              76.44           68.98 -9.8%       18,219
AMCX              66.53           59.08 -11.2%         4,506
HRB              29.11           24.87 -14.6%         6,300
DHX                2.40             2.05 -14.6%            134
VIAB              34.70           29.35 -15.4%       14,247
FRAN                9.51             7.81 -17.9%            359
MPAA              27.73           21.53 -22.4%            542
GME              19.65           14.83 -24.5%         2,198
TGNA              15.00           10.79 -28.1%         3,290
SQBG                3.04             2.11 -30.6%            208
AGX              62.18           37.95 -39.0%         1,010
PBI              14.43             8.68 -39.8%         2,932
VVUS                1.16             0.69 -40.5%            121
AOBC              20.45             9.46 -53.7%         1,106
CJREF                9.29             3.10 -66.6%         2,243


Six stinkers - recall I said in previous post an overall 14% stinker rate... pretty close!  If you could just find a way to avoid these, we'd jump from 12.5% to 20.4%.  Here is a listing of every tracking portfolio back to 2006:


Date MFI R3K Lead
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9% 1
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6% 1
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6% 1
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1% 0
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6% 1
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3% 1
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0% 1
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3% 1
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3% 0
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6% 0
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0% 0
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8% 0
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4% 0
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6% 0
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0% 0
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5% 0
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0% 0
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3% 0
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6% 0
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5% 0
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7% 0
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2% 0
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3% 0
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3% 0
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0% 1
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9% 0
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5% 0
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8% 0
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0% 1
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6% 1
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3% 1
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9% 1
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9% 1
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0% 1
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9% 1
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7% 1
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3% 1
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4% 1
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6% 1
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1% 1
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8% 1
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8% 1
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0% 0
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9% 1
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8% 0
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4% 1
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3% 1
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6% 1
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1% 1
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6% 0
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6% 0
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4% 0
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4% 0
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4% 0
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7% 0
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1% 0
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1% 0
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3% 0
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4% 0
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4% 0
1/3/2011 -11.4% 0.1% 0
1/28/2011 -7.6% 4.9% 0
2/25/2011 -5.5% 5.0% 0
3/24/2011 -4.4% 7.4% 0
4/21/2011 -16.0% 3.2% 0
5/27/2011 -12.0% -0.4% 0
6/24/2011 -9.5% 5.0% 0
7/29/2011 -4.3% 8.1% 0
8/26/2011 12.0% 21.6% 0
9/30/2011 23.5% 29.6% 0
10/28/2011 0.4% 11.5% 0
11/25/2011 13.9% 24.0% 0
12/29/2011 9.9% 15.9% 0
1/27/2012 7.4% 16.6% 0
2/24/2012 7.8% 13.3% 0
3/23/2012 9.1% 15.2% 0
4/27/2012 10.5% 15.3% 0
5/25/2012 23.4% 27.5% 0
6/22/2012 26.1% 24.6% 1
7/27/2012 30.4% 25.7% 1
8/24/2012 26.0% 19.8% 1
9/28/2012 39.3% 22.1% 1
10/26/2012 48.3% 28.9% 1
11/23/2012 45.7% 32.1% 1
12/31/2012 52.3% 33.0% 1
1/25/2013 39.5% 22.0% 1
2/22/2013 46.5% 26.4% 1
3/28/2013 40.1% 21.2% 1
4/26/2013 35.0% 20.5% 1
5/24/2013 20.4% 19.2% 1
6/28/2013 26.9% 24.1% 1
7/29/2013 17.8% 19.0% 0
8/30/2013 17.5% 24.6% 0
9/27/2013 12.9% 17.7% 0
10/25/2013 11.8% 15.4% 0
11/29/2013 12.3% 15.6% 0
12/31/2013 12.7% 11.9% 1
1/31/2014 14.2% 13.0% 1
2/28/2014 15.4% 13.9% 1
3/28/2014 6.1% 12.3% 0
4/25/2014 8.6% 15.8% 0
5/30/2014 5.9% 11.7% 0
6/27/2014 2.5% 9.2% 0
7/25/2014 3.3% 8.7% 0
8/29/2014 -2.2% 1.0% 0
9/26/2014 -0.6% -0.9% 1
10/31/2014 4.3% 4.4% 0
11/28/2014 -2.9% 2.9% 0
12/31/2014 -9.3% 0.3% 0
1/30/2015 -12.4% -2.8% 0
2/27/2015 -19.0% -7.3% 0
3/27/2015 -17.1% -1.9% 0
4/24/2015 -15.4% -0.8% 0
5/29/2015 -14.1% 0.1% 0
6/26/2015 -8.7% 0.4% 0
7/30/2015 3.96% 4.02% 0
8/28/2015 5.6% 10.2% 0
9/25/2015 6.5% 13.8% 0
10/30/2015 2.0% 4.0% 0
11/27/2015 8.9% 8.4% 1
12/31/2015 13.7% 12.6% 1
1/29/2016 22.6% 22.4% 1
2/26/2016 27.8% 25.4% 1
3/24/2016 26.5% 19.6% 1
4/22/2016 13.7% 14.8% 0
5/27/2016 14.3% 15.6% 0
6/30/2016 23.2% 16.1% 1
7/29/2016 17.1% 16.0% 1
8/26/2016 10.6% 14.6% 0
9/30/2016 18.6% 18.5% 1
10/28/2016 18.3% 24.1% 0
11/25/2016 7.4% 19.2% 0
12/30/2016 4.7% 20.5% 0
1/27/2017 10.5% 25.7% 0
2/24/2017 7.6% 17.4% 0
3/31/2017 6.4% 13.6% 0
4/28/2017 5.8% 13.8% 0
5/26/2017 11.1% 15.1% 0
6/29/2017 11.1% 14.7% 0
7/28/2017 12.5% 16.1% 0
8/25/2017 25.0% 17.5% 1
9/29/2017 13.4% 13.3% 1
10/27/2017 15.1% 10.7% 1
11/24/2017 12.3% 9.4% 1
12/29/2017 11.7% 6.5% 1
1/26/2018 -0.5% -0.4% 0
2/23/2018 2.5% 3.7% 0
3/29/2018 6.1% 7.3% 0
4/27/2018 2.5% 6.1% 0
5/25/2018 0.7% 3.6% 0
6/29/2018 -1.0% 3.4% 0

The 4.4 point drubbing of the June 29th portfolio is telling and shows again why I struggled in July.

Dividend Subset

My backtracking has shown that MFI stocks that pay a dividend seem to do better. I believe this is because a dividends infers that income flows are more likely to be sustainable.  This tends to extract stocks with large one time payments.  That was true again this month-year. My dividend MFI portfolio (which are stocks I track with a yield of 2.6% or greater) were up 25.6%.  MUCH better than the 12.5% for all fifty MFI stocks I tracked.

Here are those winners:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap  Yield
MSB              12.13           27.35 125.4%            175 7.8%
SYNT              19.73           40.67 106.1%         1,658 76.0%
DIN              38.55           71.81 86.3%            755 10.1%
BPT              16.56           27.50 66.1%            437 20.1%
BKE              16.07           23.15 44.0%            848 6.2%
CSCO              30.53           42.57 39.4%     157,787 3.8%
NCMI                6.46             8.25 27.7%            453 13.6%
HPQ              18.69           23.23 24.3%       32,337 2.8%
RGR              55.84           54.25 -2.8%         1,002 3.4%
OMC              76.44           68.98 -9.8%       18,219 2.9%
HRB              29.11           24.87 -14.6%         6,300 3.3%
GME              19.65           14.83 -24.5%         2,198 7.7%
PBI              14.43             8.68 -39.8%         2,932 5.2%
CJREF                9.29             3.10 -66.6%         2,243 9.4%

You'll see SYNT, I do include special dividends.

Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have today if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly. I think it is obvious why my formula approach is a function of dividend subset.


Category Value
Total      229,797
Total Russell 3K      278,140
Dividend      520,897