Another month has almost finished. While I had a nice month traveling, it was not a nice month for my investing. It just continues to be a struggle. Any time I start making some headway, I then get a crushing setback. In early July I actually moved ahead of all benchmarks for the year... but it was just a tease.
Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary. This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets". I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.
I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting
And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.
Onwards.
Last Month
As my 20 regular readers know, I have switched from updating my readers on my performance in MFI from weekly to once a month. Hopefully less is more. But as I hinted in opening paragraph, 2018 continues to be a struggle and July was a struggle on steroids. Here is a table showing just that (probably rated PG-13):
| Component | YTD | 3rd Quarter |
| Overall | +1.2% | +1.7% |
| MFI Select | -6.0% | -0.6% |
| MFI Formula | +7.0% | +0.8% |
| MFI Combined | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| Non MFI | +1.7% | +2.5% |
| Dividend Index | +0.0% | +2.2% |
| R3K Index | +6.4% | +3.4% |
| Blended Index | +4.2% | +3.0% |
| MFI Index | +11.7% | -1.1% |
| GARIX | +0.9% | +2.3% |
So, I guess the good news - it was a decent month in that I moved into the black. I went up 1.7% in the month and stand at 1.2% for the year (note that is overall for me, MFI and non-MFI). But Russell 3000 was up 3.4% for the month and even the lackluster dividend index was up 2.2%.
Turing to MFI stuff, my combined 2 MFI real $ portfolios were up a mere 0.1% for the quarter. The MFI Index was also down 1.1% and GARIX was up 2.3%. So pretty much underperformance across the board. I know, sad.
I did move more to cash (just non MFI as I don't allow selling of MFI holdings) during July - up to 34% as I am just uncomfortable with Tariffs and current political climate. China may retaliate by start forcing citizens to hold fewer US stocks... that would send a shock wave through market.
MFI Select
Ok, enough pity party. July was poor (relatively)... move on. MFI Select is one of my two real $ MFI portfolios. I started it in August 2012 after quitting MFI for a year from frustration (hopefully that frustration is not re-building). It consists of 4 tranches, with each tranche having 5 stocks. I hold each tranche for a year then sell and start a new tranche. My goal is to minimize stinkers (highly technical term), meaning stocks that drop 30% or more in a year. Stinkers kill performance and they are pretty prevalent in MFI screens (I estimate about 1 in 7). Here are my 4 open tranches and how they compare versus Russell 3000 bought at same time as tranche started:
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $564.75 | $5.08 | -3.6% | 16.6% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $20.99 | $0.00 | 6.0% | 16.6% |
| MD | $43.00 | $42.81 | $0.00 | -0.4% | 16.6% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $54.63 | $0.90 | 29.0% | 16.6% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $75.43 | $1.04 | 73.2% | 16.6% |
| Totals | 20.8% | 16.6% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $22.85 | $0.00 | 37.1% | 11.2% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $86.43 | $0.00 | -14.1% | 11.2% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $4.45 | $0.15 | -20.4% | 11.2% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $54.63 | $0.60 | 17.8% | 11.2% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $29.35 | $0.60 | 22.7% | 11.2% |
| Totals | 8.6% | 11.2% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $37.95 | $0.50 | -11.7% | 1.3% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $14.68 | $0.00 | -22.0% | 1.3% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $107.57 | $1.34 | -0.8% | 1.3% |
| THO | $136.33 | $92.87 | $0.74 | -31.3% | 1.3% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $71.13 | $1.00 | -17.8% | 1.3% |
| Totals | -16.7% | 1.3% | |||
| 5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CAAP | $12.19 | $11.20 | $0.00 | -8.1% | 7.6% |
| TGNA | $10.51 | $10.79 | $0.07 | 3.4% | 7.6% |
| DISCA | $23.85 | $26.03 | $0.00 | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| FTSI | $19.39 | $11.89 | $0.00 | -38.7% | 7.6% |
| ICHR | $21.96 | $20.99 | $0.00 | -4.4% | 7.6% |
| Totals | -7.7% | 7.6% |
I have had 20 tranches that have closed and just 5 stinker stocks (out of the 100 total stocks). So a 5% stinker rate. But of my current open 20 stocks, I have 2 stinkers (THO and FTSI), a 10% stinker rate. That is a key reason I am struggling a bit of late. My three most recent tranches are trailing the benchmark and the August tranche will roll over to a new tranche next month. Here is a table summarizing all tranches and my internal rate of return:
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 20.8% | 8.6% | -16.7% | -7.7% | -1.2% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 42.6% | 74.9% | -3.6% | 31.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 10.2% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 10.3% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 122.7% | 365.6% | 167.3% | 24.6% | 170.1% |
| Current Balance | 55,678 | 116,401 | 66,834 | 31,162 | 270,076 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 16.6% | 11.2% | 1.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 123.3% | 127.9% | 104.4% | 91.3% | 111.7% |
| R3K Balance | 55,833 | 56,976 | 51,095 | 47,825 | 211,729 |
| Annualized IRR | 14.4% | 31.0% | 19.6% | 4.3% | 17.3% |
So you can see the composite of my 4 open tranches is down 1.2% versus Russell 3000 up 9.2%. That is a butt-whooping. It is frustrating as I had been riding a very strong stretch and the MFI Index (a group of 50 MFI stocks I track to provide a benchmark) is up 11% in 2018. So, sadly, this time it is more me than MFI.
But overall, my results are still satisfactory, up 17.3% per year on average, Here is a table showing essentially that 17.3%, how $100,000 at the start would have gown over that almost 6 years:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| 7/1/2018 | 68.20% | 273,125 | 204,921 |
| Current | 58.35% | 270,076 | 211,729 |
So you can see the drop off since April: 293,665 to 270,076. In a period where R3K has gone up. It is never easy.
Here are how individual stocks did in past month:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ICHR | 21.22 | 20.99 | - | -1.1% |
| SIMO | 52.89 | 54.63 | - | 3.3% |
| CASA | 16.33 | 14.68 | - | -10.1% |
| MSGN | 23.95 | 22.85 | - | -4.6% |
| VIAB | 30.16 | 29.35 | - | -2.7% |
| DISCA | 27.50 | 26.03 | - | -5.3% |
| AGX | 40.95 | 37.95 | - | -7.3% |
| KLAC | 102.53 | 107.57 | - | 4.9% |
| FTSI | 14.24 | 11.89 | - | -16.5% |
| CAAP | 8.44 | 11.20 | - | 32.7% |
| WDC | 77.41 | 71.13 | - | -8.1% |
| TGNA | 10.85 | 10.79 | - | -0.6% |
| RHI | 65.10 | 75.43 | - | 15.9% |
| THO | 97.39 | 92.87 | - | -4.6% |
| CELG | 79.42 | 86.43 | - | 8.8% |
| EVC | 5.00 | 4.45 | - | -11.0% |
| MD | 43.28 | 42.81 | - | -1.1% |
| GHC | 586.10 | 564.75 | - | -3.6% |
CAAP was great! RHI has solid earnings. I like AGX, but market not showing them love. CASA has been all over the place, but not a good place right now. VIAB actually popped Friday as CBS CEO, Moonves is under sexual harassment scrutiny. Funny how that works.
MFI Formula
My 2nd real money MFI portfolio is named "Formula" as I pick the stocks via a formula and random number generator. It had really been gathering steam at end of June and early July. But then we had a few setbacks. It is never ever easy. I started this approach in October 2014. Here are the 4 open tranches:
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $71.81 | $2.23 | 71.6% | 13.2% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $76.81 | $1.66 | -5.3% | 13.2% |
| GME | $20.50 | $14.83 | $1.14 | -22.1% | 13.2% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $23.23 | $0.40 | 16.9% | 13.2% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $68.98 | $1.75 | -5.4% | 13.2% |
| Totals | 11.1% | 13.2% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $192.44 | $2.64 | 10.1% | 5.9% |
| GME | $18.06 | $14.83 | $0.76 | -13.7% | 5.9% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $76.81 | $1.14 | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $24.87 | $0.49 | -3.7% | 5.9% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $68.98 | $1.20 | -3.6% | 5.9% |
| Totals | -0.4% | 5.9% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $192.44 | $1.32 | 16.4% | 9.0% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $29.35 | $0.20 | 1.2% | 9.0% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $76.81 | $0.57 | 6.4% | 9.0% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $35.41 | $0.69 | -23.7% | 9.0% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $16.05 | $0.08 | 21.4% | 9.0% |
| Totals | 4.3% | 9.0% | |||
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $3.10 | $0.10 | -18.1% | 3.6% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $76.81 | $0.00 | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $22.42 | $0.00 | -1.7% | 3.6% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $107.57 | $0.00 | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $35.41 | $0.00 | -11.7% | 3.6% |
| Totals | -3.5% | 3.6% |
Yes, I know. All four tranches are trailing the benchmark. Did I mention July had some bumps? At least no stinkers. Here is table showing overall results:
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 11.1% | -0.4% | 4.3% | -3.5% | 2.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 37.3% | 20.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 16.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 26.0% | 40.7% | 58.1% | 47.0% | 43.0% |
| Current Balance | 314,831 | 351,785 | 395,447 | 367,046 | 1,429,108 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 13.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 7.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 51.9% | 42.8% | 41.2% | 41.6% | 44.4% |
| R3K Balance | 379,400 | 356,929 | 353,222 | 353,694 | 1,443,245 |
| Annualized IRR | 6.2% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 11.1% |
So 11.1% annualized IRR. My 4 open tranches up 2.0% versus 7.9% for the benchmark. Note I did at the start of the month retire the July 2017 tranche... which was great... up 37.3% (under Previous tranche/July in table shown above), so not all bad.
Here is how the $100,000 at start would have grown:
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| 4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
| 7/1/2018 | 2.28% | 141,126 | 138,849 |
| Current | -1.41% | 142,911 | 144,325 |
Yeah, I know. Back and forth. I am trailing again after a 2.28% cushion last month. Let us see the individual names:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 70.84 | 76.81 | - | 8.4% |
| AMGN | 184.59 | 192.44 | - | 4.3% |
| TUP | 41.24 | 35.41 | - | -14.1% |
| OMC | 76.27 | 68.98 | - | -9.6% |
| EGOV | 15.55 | 16.05 | - | 3.2% |
| GME | 14.57 | 14.83 | - | 1.8% |
| KLAC | 102.53 | 107.57 | - | 4.9% |
| VIAB | 30.16 | 29.35 | - | -2.7% |
| DIN | 74.80 | 71.81 | - | -4.0% |
| IPG | 22.80 | 22.42 | - | -1.7% |
| HRB | 22.78 | 24.87 | - | 9.2% |
| CJREF | 3.90 | 3.10 | 0.10 | -18.1% |
| HPQ | 22.69 | 23.23 | - | 2.4% |
OMC and TUP got hit pretty hard on their earnings. CJREF seems to be priced like no one will ever watch a movie again.
MFI Index
I do maintain an index of 50 MFI stocks that I reconstitute once a year. That index has been great this year (up about 12%). Here is how it has done year by year since 2006 versus benchmark:
| Annual | Inception to Date | |||
| Year | Russell | MFI | Russell ITD | MFI ITD |
| 2006 | 11.4% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 15.0% |
| 2007 | 4.1% | -6.7% | 16.0% | 7.3% |
| 2008 | -37.0% | -38.0% | -27.0% | -33.4% |
| 2009 | 32.5% | 45.2% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| 2010 | 18.4% | 22.8% | 14.5% | 18.7% |
| 2011 | -0.6% | -10.5% | 13.9% | 6.2% |
| 2012 | 16.4% | 9.7% | 32.6% | 16.6% |
| 2013 | 33.0% | 51.7% | 76.3% | 76.8% |
| 2014 | 12.3% | 12.1% | 98.0% | 98.1% |
| 2015 | 0.4% | -8.9% | 98.7% | 80.4% |
| 2016 | 12.5% | 13.2% | 123.5% | 104.2% |
| 2017 | 20.8% | 4.7% | 170.1% | 113.9% |
| 2018 | 6.4% | 11.7% | 187.5% | 139.0% |
So since 2006 (in total) my MFI Index is trailing benchmark 139.0% to 187.5%. I know, that is a bit disappointing. We were leading going in to 2015, but it has been very tough sledding of late for value stocks.
Here are the current stocks in my index and how they've done for the year. This index is purely for tracking, I have not bought the index as a basket of stocks with real money. I would think individually about the stocks and whether income can be replicated.
| Stock | Start | Current | YTD Change |
| AMAG | 13.25 | 22.05 | 66.4% |
| AMCX | 54.08 | 59.08 | 9.2% |
| ABC | 91.82 | 83.68 | -8.9% |
| AMGN | 173.90 | 195.08 | 12.2% |
| AGX | 45.00 | 38.45 | -14.6% |
| BIVV | 53.92 | 105.00 | 94.7% |
| HRB | 26.22 | 25.36 | -3.3% |
| BPT | 20.10 | 30.00 | 49.3% |
| ABCD | 5.68 | 12.20 | 114.8% |
| CPLA | 77.40 | 105.41 | 36.2% |
| CASA | 17.76 | 14.68 | -17.3% |
| CSCO | 38.30 | 43.19 | 12.8% |
| CNCE | 25.87 | 16.22 | -37.3% |
| CJREF | 9.21 | 3.48 | -62.2% |
| DLX | 76.84 | 59.05 | -23.2% |
| DIN | 50.73 | 73.07 | 44.0% |
| DISCA | 22.38 | 26.03 | 16.3% |
| EGRX | 53.42 | 80.45 | 50.6% |
| EVC | 7.15 | 4.55 | -36.4% |
| ESRX | 74.64 | 79.45 | 6.4% |
| GME | 17.95 | 15.55 | -13.4% |
| GILD | 71.64 | 77.95 | 8.8% |
| HSII | 24.55 | 34.86 | 42.0% |
| HPQ | 21.01 | 23.50 | 11.8% |
| INVA | 14.19 | 13.77 | -3.0% |
| IDCC | 76.15 | 82.10 | 7.8% |
| IPG | 20.16 | 22.84 | 13.3% |
| KLAC | 105.07 | 108.91 | 3.7% |
| LEE | 2.35 | 3.15 | 34.0% |
| MCFT | 22.22 | 24.53 | 10.4% |
| MPAA | 24.99 | 21.53 | -13.8% |
| MSGN | 20.25 | 22.85 | 12.8% |
| NHTC | 15.19 | 23.61 | 55.4% |
| NLS | 13.35 | 13.95 | 4.5% |
| EGOV | 16.60 | 16.21 | -2.3% |
| OMC | 72.83 | 70.18 | -3.6% |
| PTN | 0.86 | 0.95 | 10.2% |
| PDLI | 2.74 | 2.55 | -6.9% |
| PCOA | 575.00 | 690.75 | 20.1% |
| PBI | 11.18 | 9.06 | -19.0% |
| SRNE | 3.80 | 5.15 | 35.5% |
| SP | 37.10 | 38.00 | 2.4% |
| SYNT | 22.99 | 40.67 | 76.9% |
| TGNA | 14.08 | 10.93 | -22.4% |
| MEET | 2.82 | 4.10 | 45.4% |
| TVTY | 36.55 | 34.15 | -6.6% |
| TRNC | 17.59 | 16.06 | -8.7% |
| UTHR | 147.95 | 122.98 | -16.9% |
| VEC | 30.85 | 31.47 | 2.0% |
| VIAB | 30.81 | 29.75 | -3.4% |
| Total | 21,371 | 11.7% |
Non MFI
For those here to read about MFI, I am done. Last month I spoke about my non MFI component (which was up an ok 2.5% this month) as being mainly comprised of: (1) Energy, (2) Shipping, (3) Small Banks and (4) Bio Tech.
This month, with my concerns about tariffs etc and the moving to 34% cash, I sold much of my bio techs and small banks. I also sold some shipping. So here are my Energy holdings (which took a 3% drubbing yesterday):
This month, with my concerns about tariffs etc and the moving to 34% cash, I sold much of my bio techs and small banks. I also sold some shipping. So here are my Energy holdings (which took a 3% drubbing yesterday):
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain | Weight |
| APA | 40.57 | 45.01 | 0.25 | 11.6% | 0.8% |
| AR | 19.09 | 20.23 | - | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| CHK | 4.49 | 4.41 | - | -1.7% | 0.7% |
| ECA | 12.40 | 13.11 | 0.03 | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| ETP | 19.22 | 20.43 | - | 6.3% | 1.5% |
| FSLR | 51.46 | 51.65 | - | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| KMI | 16.73 | 17.90 | - | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| NBL | 35.41 | 35.34 | - | -0.2% | 0.8% |
| NFX | 29.70 | 27.55 | - | -7.2% | 0.7% |
| OXY | 83.04 | 83.47 | 0.79 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| PXD | 194.94 | 186.02 | - | -4.6% | 0.7% |
| RRC | 15.96 | 14.47 | - | -9.3% | 0.6% |
| SEDG | 47.39 | 53.95 | - | 13.8% | 1.4% |
| SPWR | 7.51 | 6.89 | - | -8.3% | 0.8% |
| SWN | 4.74 | 4.95 | - | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| WPX | 17.81 | 18.51 | - | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Total | 3.1% |
The theory here is that oil has gone up a ton in 2018, but many of these names are quite levered to the price of oil and should begin having some very, very strong earnings later this year. I encourage people to subscribe to Kirk Spano on Youtube or Seeking Alpha. He paints a very compelling picture of the sustainability of oil prices in a goldilocks range for next couple of years before electric vehicles start really taking market share.
I have also bought XOP (an ETF focusing on many of these names) calls for January 2020 and sold some puts.
Here is my shipping portfolio:
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain |
| ANW | 1.44 | 1.47 | - | 2.3% |
| CPLP | 3.50 | 3.15 | 0.22 | -3.8% |
| DLNG | 8.10 | 7.78 | 0.25 | -0.9% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.44 | 0.84 | 3.6% |
| NMM | 1.89 | 2.01 | 0.02 | 7.3% |
| SSW | 6.53 | 7.50 | 0.98 | 29.8% |
| TGP | 17.89 | 16.25 | 0.23 | -7.9% |
| TK | 8.45 | 6.83 | 0.09 | -18.1% |
| TOO | 2.33 | 2.54 | 0.02 | 9.7% |
| Total | 1.0% |
I wrote at length about ANW and how it was kind of a swing for the fences vs strikeout play. Well, it popped almost 200% in July, going in two days from about 70 cents to over $2.00. Sadly, I only sold about 16% of my position as I felt it would go even higher and I started to worry about sharing 40% of outsized gains as LT capital gains. It has steadily fallen since then to $1.47. I still think it is a swing for the fences, but a much higher probability of being successful and going to $3.00. But buyer beware, there are many smart people who believe that the good news that caused the pop didn't really say or commit to anything. So bondholders may be ok and stockholders out of luck. Another month should be telling as they should file 20-F anyday.
TK and TGP have been so, so disappointing. I actually added to both this month, yet market really took them down and I honestly can not see a good reason. TK at $6.83 is really cheap. Both should announce earnings shortly, hopefully that is a catalyst.
SSW is fixed at $7.50 as I sold calls (rats). A chunk will be called out in August. I sold about 20% of my NMM at $2.08 as a cash raiser in July. It also seems very cheap on a sum of the parts basis. But all these shipping companies make me nervous with trade war potential. I mean China will still buy soybeans, just not from US. But if global economy slows, it'll hurt these names. And, not to get political, but the 4.1% GDP growth this quarter is totally bogus. The threat of tariffs has caused a bunch of exports to be front loaded... so 3rd quarter is going to drop a TON.
Other Stuff
As mentioned, I sold most of biotechs (and good thing thus far). I only own TTOO, OMER and AUPH. TTOO has gotten insanely cheap at $5.79. The market just goes nuts (in both directions) on these types of names. I may add to my position next week.
I have begun dabbling in selling puts on stocks I really like when they sell off (may add TTOO next week as a put). This way I don't put as much cash at risk immediately (although to be clear, I do have the cash if needed). Here is my score card.
Closed Puts
I had a put on OMER at $16 that expired 7/20. It ended north of $19. So I kept all the premium: $2,850.
I had a put on SPWR at $8.00 that expired yesterday. I got $1.40 in premium (per share) but got "put" SPWR yesterday as they closed at $6.89. My basis is $6.60 on the 2,600 shares. So I am up $754 and I could sell the shares Monday if I want.
Open Puts
| Ticker | Put Date | Strike price | premium | # Puts | Current Share price | Current Put | Gain |
| SPWR | September | $8.00 | $1.70 | 26.00 | $6.89 | $1.76 | ($156) |
| FSLR | August | $50.00 | $2.80 | 10.00 | $51.65 | $1.08 | $1,720 |
| PXD | August | $195.00 | $10.90 | 3.00 | $184.55 | $11.30 | ($120) |
| PXD | August | $195.00 | $14.89 | 3.00 | $184.55 | $11.30 | $1,077 |
| XOP | August | $44.00 | $2.08 | 20.00 | 42.25 | $2.08 | $10 |
I just sold the August XOP puts yesterday.
Dividend Index
I do use a composite of 40 securities as a proxy for my income-type holdings (about 35% of my portfolio). Here is how they did during the month and year to date:
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Monthly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 10.65 | 0.41 | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.83% |
| NML | 9.38 | 8.98 | 0.39 | -0.2% | 2.4% | 7.35% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 29.38 | 1.26 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 5.78% |
| ETP | 17.92 | 20.43 | 1.13 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 10.99% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 13.39 | 0.29 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 4.86% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 57.71 | 0.75 | -1.2% | 2.8% | 3.35% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 68.81 | 3.25 | -14.8% | 7.2% | 6.54% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 83.49 | 2.75 | 2.7% | 10.5% | 3.56% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 64.90 | 0.67 | 2.4% | 4.1% | 2.12% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 85.88 | 1.24 | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.87% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 63.49 | 0.96 | 14.5% | 4.6% | 3.00% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 114.28 | 1.61 | -3.4% | 5.0% | 2.93% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 80.56 | 1.95 | -0.6% | -1.1% | 4.33% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 11.94 | 0.56 | -1.2% | -0.7% | 6.60% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 60.00 | 1.25 | -6.4% | 2.1% | 4.27% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 100.77 | 1.55 | 1.4% | 0.2% | 3.19% |
| T | 38.88 | 31.08 | 1.47 | -16.3% | -3.2% | 6.40% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 52.01 | 1.68 | 1.4% | 3.4% | 4.54% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 44.63 | 0.80 | -10.1% | 0.5% | 4.60% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 16.41 | 0.68 | -3.2% | 6.3% | 4.68% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 11.22 | 0.48 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 5.50% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.77 | 0.20 | -1.9% | -1.0% | 6.33% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 108.99 | 1.47 | -0.3% | 0.0% | 2.30% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.53 | 0.18 | -0.7% | 0.5% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 13.02 | 0.42 | -2.3% | 0.1% | 5.31% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 35.84 | 1.16 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 5.46% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.90 | 0.22 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 2.80% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 9.10 | 0.22 | 2.6% | 0.2% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 30.02 | 1.12 | 0.6% | 3.8% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 52.62 | 0.84 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 3.33% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 81.09 | 1.78 | -1.5% | 2.5% | 4.39% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 66.51 | 1.09 | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.54% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 37.60 | 1.26 | 2.1% | -0.3% | 5.61% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 9.35 | 0.46 | -5.2% | 0.2% | 6.88% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,268.00 | 37.50 | -0.3% | 0.7% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 111.73 | 1.47 | -0.8% | -1.0% | 2.91% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.19 | 0.55 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 1.31% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 119.46 | 1.79 | -4.4% | -1.9% | 2.62% |
| Totals | - | - | - | 0.1% | 2.1% | 4.64% |
So they are now (finally) in the black (by slimmest of margins) for the year. I think that is a wrap. Later this weekend I will post about my latest MFI tracking portfolio. Don't miss it!
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