Weekend Update

First my weekly graph. Not a pretty week.


Lots of new stocks in my mechanical portfolios this weekend. I will certainly be buying some as I do believe that weks of high turnover are positive.

New to Top 30: BBND, RGR, VRSK, FLR and RTN.
New to Top 50: ESI and VRSK.

I did pull some of my stats for some of the stocks:

	flr	bbnd	esi	vrsk	rgr
Operating Income After Depreciation	1,134.55	16.66	442.26	336.77	44.76
Minority Interest - Income Account	23.56	-	-	-	-
Income for Calculation	1,111.00	16.66	442.26	336.77	44.76
Diluted Shares Outstanding	181.198	68.771	37.763	180.204	19.377
Share Price	44.42	3.70	90.35	27.43	10.62
Market Cap Calc	8,048.82	254.45	3,411.89	4,943.00	205.78
Preferred Capital	-	-	-	842.12	-
Debt in Current Liabilities	121.71	-	150.00	160.37	-
Long-Term Debt	17.73	-	-	528.69	-
Cash and Short-Term Investments	2,108.99	173.34	280.84	56.84	53.12
Excess Cash	1,739.39	151.69	157.48	-	53.12
Enterprise Value	6,448.87	102.77	3,404.40	6,474.18	152.67
Property Plant and Equipment - Net	830.97	13.04	192.34	84.28	31.53
Receivables	1,268.76	13.15	93.82	115.62	26.74
Inventories	1,060.88	5.65	-	-	7.05
Other Current Assests	469.35	4.40	35.43	40.04	7.99
Working Cash	369.60	21.65	123.36	109.86	-
Accounts Payable	1,243.81	6.42	67.18	84.67	11.53
Current Liabilities - Other	1,924.79	38.43	185.43	180.85	18.46
Invested Capital	830.97	13.04	192.34	84.28	43.33
Earnings Yield	17%	16%	13%	5%	29%
ROIC	134%	128%	230%	400%	103%

I think a very important point is that VRSK doesn't seem to fit to me. The EY (5%) is too low. The MFI site shows a market cap around 78m, but I see everywhere a $4.9b cap. I already own RTN. I will think about added ESI, FLR and RGR.

Here is the mechanical top 50 now:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
GES	11/1/08	21.77	36.55	0.10	96.83	2.31	68.4%	9.3%	59.0%
HWAY	11/1/08	10.10	16.08	-	96.83	2.31	59.2%	9.3%	49.9%
WBC	11/1/08	18.37	23.72	0.07	96.83	2.31	29.5%	9.3%	20.2%
GTLS	11/7/08	11.62	19.77	-	93.86	2.31	70.1%	12.8%	57.3%
CDII	11/7/08	2.77	1.33	-	93.86	2.31	-52.0%	12.8%	-64.8%
IPHS	11/7/08	19.97	19.35	0.17	93.86	2.31	-2.3%	12.8%	-15.0%
MSPD	11/7/08	1.31	3.49	-	93.86	2.31	166.4%	12.8%	153.6%
QLGC	11/7/08	11.49	17.54	-	93.86	2.31	52.7%	12.8%	39.9%
SCHN	11/7/08	27.07	43.24	-	93.86	2.31	59.7%	12.8%	46.9%
SVR	11/7/08	8.92	17.13	-	93.86	2.31	92.0%	12.8%	79.2%
TDC	11/7/08	14.48	27.88	-	93.86	2.31	92.5%	12.8%	79.7%
EBAY	11/7/08	14.19	22.27	-	96.83	2.31	56.9%	9.3%	47.6%
TKTM	11/15/08	5.87	9.65	-	86.62	2.31	64.4%	22.2%	42.2%
ERES	11/15/08	4.65	7.40	-	86.62	2.31	59.1%	22.2%	36.9%
FEED	11/15/08	1.76	4.41	-	86.62	2.31	150.6%	22.2%	128.3%
HCKT	11/15/08	2.57	3.12	-	86.62	2.31	21.4%	22.2%	-0.8%
FLR	11/15/08	35.73	44.42	0.13	86.62	2.31	24.7%	22.2%	2.5%
GTI	11/15/08	4.79	13.50	-	86.62	2.31	181.8%	22.2%	159.6%
INTX	11/15/08	4.10	5.70	-	86.62	2.31	39.0%	22.2%	16.8%
MSO	11/15/08	3.91	5.18	-	86.62	2.31	32.5%	22.2%	10.3%
JCG	11/15/08	11.22	40.78	-	86.62	2.31	263.5%	22.2%	241.2%
MDR	11/15/08	7.80	22.23	-	86.62	2.31	185.0%	22.2%	162.8%
ABAT	11/22/08	1.34	3.36	-	79.52	2.31	150.7%	33.1%	117.6%
ADSK	11/22/08	14.37	24.93	-	79.52	2.31	73.5%	33.1%	40.4%
GIGM	11/22/08	3.79	4.10	-	79.52	2.31	8.2%	33.1%	-25.0%
OPTV	11/22/08	0.94	1.54	-	79.52	2.31	63.8%	33.1%	30.7%
PRO	11/22/08	4.14	8.99	-	79.52	2.31	117.1%	33.1%	84.0%
WTSLA	11/22/08	2.20	3.19	-	79.52	2.31	45.0%	33.1%	11.9%
AIRT	11/29/08	6.08	9.98	-	90.09	2.31	64.1%	17.5%	46.6%
BSQR	11/29/08	2.48	2.32	-	90.09	2.31	-6.5%	17.5%	-24.0%
CKSW	11/29/08	2.20	5.16	-	90.09	2.31	134.5%	17.5%	117.0%
IILG	11/29/08	5.30	11.16	-	90.09	2.31	110.6%	17.5%	93.1%
PBSO.PK	11/29/08	0.39	0.65	-	90.09	2.31	66.7%	17.5%	49.2%
DIVX	12/8/08	4.37	4.81	-	87.93	2.31	10.1%	20.4%	-10.3%
GSIT	12/8/08	2.94	3.61	-	87.93	2.31	22.8%	20.4%	2.4%
HGRD	12/8/08	1.35	4.34	-	87.93	2.31	221.5%	20.4%	201.1%
ISIL	12/8/08	7.92	12.55	0.12	87.93	2.31	60.0%	20.4%	39.6%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.58	-	87.93	2.31	-3.8%	20.4%	-24.2%
PVSW	12/8/08	3.80	4.90	-	87.93	2.31	28.9%	20.4%	8.5%
DDMX	12/13/08	11.13	18.53	-	88.99	2.31	66.5%	19.0%	47.5%
PSOF	12/13/08	2.74	6.58	-	88.99	2.31	140.1%	19.0%	121.2%
ITWO	12/27/08	5.61	15.74	-	87.16	1.59	180.6%	20.6%	159.9%
JOYG	12/27/08	21.95	50.41	-	87.16	1.59	129.7%	20.6%	109.0%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.56	-	87.16	1.59	245.6%	20.6%	225.0%
CTGX	1/3/09	3.18	6.97	-	92.96	1.59	119.2%	13.1%	106.1%
PMD	1/3/09	6.44	5.40	-	92.96	1.59	-16.1%	13.1%	-29.3%
HPY	1/24/09	8.54	12.29	-	83.11	1.59	43.9%	26.5%	17.4%
HLIT	1/31/09	5.15	5.25	-	82.83	1.59	1.9%	26.9%	-25.0%
HGT	1/31/09	13.06	16.30	0.36	82.83	1.59	27.6%	26.9%	0.6%
CNU	2/8/09	1.96	2.62	-	86.98	1.59	33.7%	20.9%	12.8%
SJT	2/8/09	19.05	17.81	0.29	86.98	1.59	-5.0%	20.9%	-25.9%
SGU	2/8/09	2.55	3.90	0.07	86.98	1.59	55.6%	20.9%	34.7%
TC	2/8/09	4.33	10.18	-	86.98	1.59	135.1%	20.9%	114.2%
bioc	2/14/09	3.72	4.46	-	82.76	1.59	19.9%	27.0%	-7.2%
FORR	2/14/09	17.56	25.33	-	82.76	1.59	44.2%	27.0%	17.2%
ZYXI.OB	2/14/09	1.20	1.74	-	82.76	1.59	45.0%	27.0%	18.0%
FRD	2/21/09	4.95	5.77	-	77.42	1.59	16.6%	35.8%	-19.2%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	5.25	-	77.42	1.59	24.4%	35.8%	-11.4%
MTXX	2/21/09	17.90	4.50	-	77.42	1.59	-74.9%	35.8%	-110.7%
TYPE	2/21/09	3.02	7.52	-	77.42	1.59	149.0%	35.8%	113.2%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	5.07	-	77.42	1.59	-6.3%	35.8%	-42.1%
PDO	2/21/09	3.19	4.75	-	77.42	1.59	48.9%	35.8%	13.1%
SAPE	2/21/09	3.38	8.14	-	77.42	1.59	140.8%	35.8%	105.0%
VDSI	2/21/09	5.25	6.08	-	77.42	1.59	15.8%	35.8%	-20.0%
IGTE	2/21/09	2.99	8.83	-	77.42	1.59	195.3%	35.8%	159.5%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	89.67	-	73.93	1.59	117.3%	42.2%	75.1%
KTII	2/28/09	55.48	95.05	-	73.93	1.59	71.3%	42.2%	29.1%
INT	2/28/09	29.01	50.85	-	73.93	1.59	75.3%	42.2%	33.1%
ICAD	2/28/09	0.90	1.75	-	77.42	1.59	94.4%	35.8%	58.6%
EXBD	3/6/09	12.96	24.01	-	68.92	1.59	85.3%	52.6%	32.7%
DISH	3/6/09	9.27	17.40	-	68.92	1.59	87.7%	52.6%	35.1%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	3.49	-	68.92	1.59	147.5%	52.6%	95.0%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	25.61	-	68.92	1.59	51.8%	52.6%	-0.8%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	5.58	-	87.08	1.03	-4.3%	20.1%	-24.4%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	7.46	-	87.89	1.03	87.4%	19.0%	68.4%
TWX	5/1/09	22.84	30.12	-	87.89	1.03	31.9%	19.0%	12.9%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	20.75	-	87.89	1.03	-30.4%	19.0%	-49.4%
ULCM.PK	5/1/09	2.18	2.63	-	87.89	1.03	20.6%	19.0%	1.6%
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	6.16	-	88.71	1.03	80.6%	17.9%	62.7%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	39.79	-	92.53	1.03	30.8%	13.0%	17.7%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	11.68	-	92.53	1.03	47.8%	13.0%	34.8%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	17.03	-	94.55	1.03	17.4%	10.6%	6.8%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	4.00	-	94.55	1.03	-12.1%	10.6%	-22.7%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	3.53	-	95.08	1.03	35.8%	10.0%	25.8%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	14.18	-	92.04	0.51	-15.3%	13.1%	-28.4%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	24.29	-	92.04	0.51	5.8%	13.1%	-7.2%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	25.66	-	87.96	0.51	8.3%	18.3%	-10.0%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	45.28	-	98.06	0.51	-0.2%	6.1%	-6.4%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	7.04	-	98.81	0.51	7.6%	5.3%	2.3%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	18.81	-	98.81	0.51	34.8%	5.3%	29.5%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	29.47	-	98.81	0.51	1.2%	5.3%	-4.1%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	42.29	-	98.81	0.51	3.2%	5.3%	-2.1%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.17	-	98.81	0.51	-18.5%	5.3%	-23.8%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	6.04	-	98.81	0.51	42.8%	5.3%	37.5%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	12.35	-	98.81	0.51	0.0%	5.3%	-5.3%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.70	-	98.81	0.51	-7.5%	5.3%	-12.8%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	27.91	-	98.81	0.51	13.7%	5.3%	8.4%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	10.62	-	98.81	0.51	-7.2%	5.3%	-12.6%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	7.33	-	100.79	0.51	5.5%	3.3%	2.2%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	3.3%	23.7%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	5.16	-	102.96	0.51	1.2%	1.1%	0.1%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	3.19	-	102.96	0.51	4.9%	1.1%	3.9%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	4.52	-	102.96	0.51	-0.7%	1.1%	-1.7%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.31	-	102.60	0.51	29.1%	1.4%	27.6%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	26.51	-	104.77	0.51	2.0%	-0.7%	2.6%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	3.95	-	106.72	0.51	6.2%	-2.5%	8.7%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	90.35	-	103.56	0.51	0.0%	0.5%	-0.5%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	27.43	-	103.56	0.51	0.0%	0.5%	-0.5%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	18.1%	-2.9%	21.0%
55.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	-17.6%	-25.3%	7.6%
S&P C			103.56			Open	54.1%	19.6%	34.4%

Oct 31 2008 Tracking Portfolio

Wow, leave town for a week and the roof falls in! I was at breakeven 9 short trading days ago, now I'm down 10%! It was generally a very bad week for the MFI world in general. All my mechanical and tracking portfolios lost ground vs the benchmarks.

My Oct 31 2008 monthly tracking portfolio (top 50 stocks > 100m) came of age today. It was the first to beat break-even in many moons (23 straight months to be precise). The good news is that it is the 7th straight portfolio to close ahead of the benchmarks. The bad news is that last month all my open portfolios were beating the benchmarks, now the 4 most recent opened portfolios are trailing. Here are the Oct stocks in descending order:

MLNX $7.76 $17.45 124.9%

CTCM $7.40 $16.08 117.3%

SPSS $23.36 $50.0 114.0%

WDC $16.47 $33.68 104.5%

BVF $7.84 $13.46 71.7%

COH $20.49 $32.97 60.9%

NTRI $13.45 $21.52 60.0%

MRX $14.15 $21.17 49.6%

TRA $21.60 $31.77 47.1%

MDP $18.42 $27.06 46.9%

SNCR $7.77 $11.41 46.8%

HLF $23.46 $33.65 43.4%

KNXA $8.91 $12.60 41.4%

GRMN $21.46 $30.26 41.0%

NVDA $8.76 $11.96 36.5%

USMO $7.99 $10.90 36.4%

EME $17.77 $23.62 32.9%

CSKI $8.98 $11.87 32.2%

WBC $18.16 $23.72 30.6%

CF $63.80 $83.25 30.5%

JCOM $16.12 $20.45 26.9%

DBTK $7.40 $9.27 25.3%

UEPS $14.0 $17.49 24.9%

ELOS $9.41 $11.0 16.9%

HSII $23.49 $27.36 16.5%

BKE $25.79 $30.01 16.4%

KG $8.79 $10.13 15.2%

KFY $13.89 $15.96 14.9%

UNTD $6.98 $8.0 14.6%

CITP $6.08 $6.85 12.7%

FTO $12.97 $13.86 6.9%

SWIR $8.75 $9.01 3.0%

FWLT $27.40 $27.99 2.2%

IBAS $2.21 $2.25 1.8%

PPD $39.48 $39.54 .2%

CALM $28.38 $27.15 -4.3%

MTW $9.69 $9.14 -5.7%

tpc $19.02 $17.65 -7.2%

TTWO $11.86 $10.97 -7.5%

AYI $34.44 $31.66 -8.1%

EGY $5.30 $4.26 -19.6%

MSB $13.44 $10.0 -25.6%

GHM $20.84 $14.17 -32.0%

VRGY $14.50 $9.84 -32.1%

WFR $18.38 $12.42 -32.4%

TSCM $3.91 $2.49 -36.3%

KHD $17.08 $9.16 -46.4%

SCMP $8.23 $4.37 -46.9%

CONN $13.55 $6.31 -53.4%

PACR $11.11 $2.86 -74.3%

Then here is how all the tracking portfolios have fared:

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-36.0%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-35.7%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-30.8%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-13.3%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	46.1%	25.0%
12/26/2008	38.3%	26.1%
1/23/2009	48.2%	31.8%
2/27/2009	72.8%	48.2%
3/27/2009	51.2%	33.3%
4/24/2009	27.1%	24.6%
5/29/2009	17.6%	16.7%
6/29/2009	13.3%	15.9%
7/29/2009	6.1%	9.5%
8/28/2009	0.5%	3.6%
9/25/2009	-3.2%	1.5%
Grand Total	0.9%	-0.1%

During the week I did add one stock to my portfolio: CMFO. This was a mechanical stock from several months ago. I had placed a buy order if it dropped to $4.30... and it did so this week. It was not on the list the other day when I looked, but I will consider it a MFI stock. It does look like with the blood bath this week that we will see some turnover on the MFI lists and new additions to my mechanical portfolios (and perhaps real as I still am 10% cash).

More updates (graphs and mechanical and new stocks) over the weekend as we're back from our New England vacation.