Friday, October 30, 2009

Oct 31 2008 Tracking Portfolio

Wow, leave town for a week and the roof falls in! I was at breakeven 9 short trading days ago, now I'm down 10%! It was generally a very bad week for the MFI world in general. All my mechanical and tracking portfolios lost ground vs the benchmarks.

My Oct 31 2008 monthly tracking portfolio (top 50 stocks > 100m) came of age today. It was the first to beat break-even in many moons (23 straight months to be precise). The good news is that it is the 7th straight portfolio to close ahead of the benchmarks. The bad news is that last month all my open portfolios were beating the benchmarks, now the 4 most recent opened portfolios are trailing. Here are the Oct stocks in descending order:

MLNX $7.76 $17.45 124.9%
CTCM $7.40 $16.08 117.3%
SPSS $23.36 $50.0 114.0%
WDC $16.47 $33.68 104.5%
BVF $7.84 $13.46 71.7%
COH $20.49 $32.97 60.9%
NTRI $13.45 $21.52 60.0%
MRX $14.15 $21.17 49.6%
TRA $21.60 $31.77 47.1%
MDP $18.42 $27.06 46.9%
SNCR $7.77 $11.41 46.8%
HLF $23.46 $33.65 43.4%
KNXA $8.91 $12.60 41.4%
GRMN $21.46 $30.26 41.0%
NVDA $8.76 $11.96 36.5%
USMO $7.99 $10.90 36.4%
EME $17.77 $23.62 32.9%
CSKI $8.98 $11.87 32.2%
WBC $18.16 $23.72 30.6%
CF $63.80 $83.25 30.5%
JCOM $16.12 $20.45 26.9%
DBTK $7.40 $9.27 25.3%
UEPS $14.0 $17.49 24.9%
ELOS $9.41 $11.0 16.9%
HSII $23.49 $27.36 16.5%
BKE $25.79 $30.01 16.4%
KG $8.79 $10.13 15.2%
KFY $13.89 $15.96 14.9%
UNTD $6.98 $8.0 14.6%
CITP $6.08 $6.85 12.7%
FTO $12.97 $13.86 6.9%
SWIR $8.75 $9.01 3.0%
FWLT $27.40 $27.99 2.2%
IBAS $2.21 $2.25 1.8%
PPD $39.48 $39.54 .2%
CALM $28.38 $27.15 -4.3%
MTW $9.69 $9.14 -5.7%
tpc $19.02 $17.65 -7.2%
TTWO $11.86 $10.97 -7.5%
AYI $34.44 $31.66 -8.1%
EGY $5.30 $4.26 -19.6%
MSB $13.44 $10.0 -25.6%
GHM $20.84 $14.17 -32.0%
VRGY $14.50 $9.84 -32.1%
WFR $18.38 $12.42 -32.4%
TSCM $3.91 $2.49 -36.3%
KHD $17.08 $9.16 -46.4%
SCMP $8.23 $4.37 -46.9%
CONN $13.55 $6.31 -53.4%
PACR $11.11 $2.86 -74.3%

Then here is how all the tracking portfolios have fared:




Average of Percent Change
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -36.0%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -35.7%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -30.8%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -13.3%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 46.1% 25.0%
12/26/2008 38.3% 26.1%
1/23/2009 48.2% 31.8%
2/27/2009 72.8% 48.2%
3/27/2009 51.2% 33.3%
4/24/2009 27.1% 24.6%
5/29/2009 17.6% 16.7%
6/29/2009 13.3% 15.9%
7/29/2009 6.1% 9.5%
8/28/2009 0.5% 3.6%
9/25/2009 -3.2% 1.5%
Grand Total 0.9% -0.1%

During the week I did add one stock to my portfolio: CMFO. This was a mechanical stock from several months ago. I had placed a buy order if it dropped to $4.30... and it did so this week. It was not on the list the other day when I looked, but I will consider it a MFI stock. It does look like with the blood bath this week that we will see some turnover on the MFI lists and new additions to my mechanical portfolios (and perhaps real as I still am 10% cash).

More updates (graphs and mechanical and new stocks) over the weekend as we're back from our New England vacation.

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