Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Best Buy Has Solid Results

Gloom & Doom - Not!

Best Buy had very good results this morning (
Best Buy Reports Better-Than-Expected Second Quarter Results
) and is trading up over 10%. It shows the "experts" really don't know.  Look at some of the headlines:


  1. Is The End Near For Best Buy Co Inc 
  2. Mild Expectations For Best Buy

Best Buy's Mounting Troubles


Here is how my December tranche will  look if BBY pops 10% today:

 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $36.08 $1.01 22.4% 7.8%
 GME  $28.34 $31.46 $0.74 13.6% 7.8%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.86 $0.24 13.9% 7.8%
 PPC  $22.22 $23.88 $2.75 19.9% 7.8%
 VIAB  $40.93 $41.74 $0.80 3.9% 7.8%
 Totals  14.7% 7.8%



Saturday, August 20, 2016

Weekly Update - 8/20/16

Weekly Update

Wow,  things continue to go so well for my portfolio.  I keep waiting for some proverbial shoe to drop. I am now up 12.7% on the year, which is 4.4% above the benchmark.  Kind of firing on all cylinders.  Also my newest tranche started this week and with 51 weeks to go,it is off to a nice start.

I do continue to hold a lot of cash and I do still have one hedge (SDS) in place.  I am just not convinced that this market goes up without some hiccups.  But I am a terrible market timer, as my 35 fearless readers know.

For the week I was up 1.4%.  Here are some of the big winners:


  • BRCD  5.9%
  • WLDN  8.3%
  • BKE  +8.7% (!)
  • GNW  +9.8%
  • VNCE  +12.2%
  • CPLA  +4.8%
  • TIME  +5.9%
  • MSGN  +13.2%
MFI Micro

Ok,  I know these tranches that I started last August do not exist any more.  I bailed on them (though I did keep a few of the names).  Amazingly, they were great.  I should have stayed long and strong.  Here is the 8/28 tranche,  which would be coming up on one year:



8/28/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VNCE  $8.50 $5.63 $0.00 -33.8% -1.1%
 ONE  $1.99 $5.15 $0.00 158.8% -1.1%
 TPUB  $11.60 $15.82 $0.18 37.9% -1.1%
 LQDT  $7.26 $9.77 $0.00 34.6% -1.1%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.26 $0.00 -48.6% -1.1%
 Totals  29.8% -1.1%


I know, very very good.  I only made 3.6%.  Sold too early! (the R3K number is wrong here,  more like +10.5%.  Then my December tranche:

12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $7.80 $0.09 46.7% 7.1%
 BSQR  $6.00 $4.58 $0.00 -23.7% 7.1%
 SPCB  $4.52 $3.64 $0.00 -19.5% 7.1%
 WLDN  $8.64 $15.06 $0.00 74.3% 7.1%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.23 $0.27 -3.2% 7.1%
 Totals               -   14.9% 7.1%

Very good as well. Here I did keep the MGIC, SPCB and WLDN - so I have reaped these gains foe most part.  Perhaps I should try this again,  with more conviction!

MFI Select

Things are just working very well in this universe.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
Current 61.70%        217,503            155,798
While the 61.7 percentage point lead is not my highest ever,  it is strong.

 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  2.9% 24.7% 25.2% 7.2% 16.2%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 11.1%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 13.0%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  89.7% 246.8% 107.4% 26.1% 117.5%
 Current Balance         47,429          86,694       51,851        31,529      217,503
 R3K Current Tranche  -0.1% 7.9% 14.8% 7.6% 7.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  67.0% 70.2% 52.9% 33.0% 55.8%
 R3K Balance         41,779          42,546       38,236        33,238      155,798
 Annualized IRR  17.3% 39.1% 22.8% 7.3% 22.7%
Note this table now have a tranche -4 row.  That means I am into my 5th August tranche.  In total the 5 tranches in August are up 89.7% and that is 17.3% annualized.  That is not too shabby!

 LCI  $34.01 $30.63 $0.00 -9.9% 7.9%
 SAVE  $34.48 $39.75 $0.00 15.3% 7.9%
 PPC  $18.98 $23.55 $2.75 38.6% 7.9%
 VEC  $23.60 $32.65 $0.00 38.3% 7.9%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.63 $0.00 41.1% 7.9%
 Totals  24.7% 7.9%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $32.65 $0.00 66.3% 14.8%
 QCOM  $45.18 $62.76 $1.01 41.2% 14.8%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.26 $0.00 -48.6% 14.8%
 DEPO  $15.34 $20.73 $0.00 35.1% 14.8%
 TDC  $24.02 $31.67 $0.00 31.8% 14.8%
 Totals  25.2% 14.8%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $10.24 $0.06 29.2% 7.6%
 CBI  $37.82 $32.50 $0.00 -14.1% 7.6%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.83 $0.13 2.4% 7.6%
 RHI  $38.51 $38.74 $0.22 1.2% 7.6%
 UTHR  $107.99 $126.92 $0.00 17.5% 7.6%
 Totals  7.2% 7.6%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $30.52 $0.00 -2.2% -0.1%
 GNC  $19.79 $19.98 $0.00 1.0% -0.1%
 VLO  $54.73 $54.82 $0.00 0.2% -0.1%
 MSGN  $16.68 $18.89 $0.00 13.2% -0.1%
 GILD  $79.33 $81.00 $0.00 2.1% -0.1%
 Totals  2.9% -0.1%

With the retirement of the previous August tranche, I am very,  very close to have all four tranches in the lead in a long time.  May is just barely behind, still hampered by poor CBI pick.

MFI Formula

This approach continues to tread water.  I will stay with it, I do think it'll work. But it is a bit frustrating.  To start with $100,000 two years ago and I am at $107,000. Getting rich very slowly.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
Current -0.13%        107,390            107,520

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $28.26 $1.98 -17.9% 13.9%
 IQNT  $21.96 $15.30 $0.45 -28.3% 13.9%
 QCOM  $53.45 $62.76 $1.49 20.2% 13.9%
 CSCO  $26.37 $30.52 $0.94 19.3% 13.9%
 CA  $27.30 $34.16 $0.76 27.9% 13.9%
 Totals  4.2% 13.9%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.59 $1.01 10.9% 7.8%
 GME  $28.34 $31.72 $0.74 14.5% 7.8%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.69 $0.24 12.8% 7.8%
 PPC  $22.22 $23.55 $2.75 18.4% 7.8%
 VIAB  $40.93 $43.49 $0.80 8.2% 7.8%
 Totals  13.0% 7.8%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $43.71 $0.44 -13.9% 7.5%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.42 $0.13 20.2% 7.5%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.41 $0.19 -4.2% 7.5%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.69 $0.12 28.6% 7.5%
 TSRA  $30.79 $32.84 $0.20 7.3% 7.5%
 Totals  7.6% 7.5%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.69 $0.00 5.5% 3.4%
 VIAB  $44.00 $43.49 $0.00 -1.2% 3.4%
 CPLA  $53.22 $62.15 $0.00 16.8% 3.4%
 HRB  $23.62 $24.05 $0.00 1.8% 3.4%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.37 $0.00 3.8% 3.4%
 Totals  5.4% 3.4%
Looking at the tranches,  it does appear that things are getting a little bit better. Another reason to stay the course.

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  4.2% 13.0% 7.6% 5.4% 7.5%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.1%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  4.7% 25.4% 7.3% -7.8% 7.4%
 Current Balance      261,626        313,446     268,511      230,317      1,073,900
 R3K Current Tranche  13.9% 7.8% 7.5% 3.4% 8.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  13.2% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 7.6%
 R3K Balance      282,888        268,811     266,090      257,407      1,075,196
 Annualized IRR  2.5% 14.8% 5.2% -6.8% 4.8%

Dividends

This group of stocks also is doing nicely. Actually very nicely, up 15% on the year (recall the REXI windfall earlier).

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.18 $0.00 -14.7% -16.3% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.84 $1.46 21.8% 20.8% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.49 $0.45 14.3% 13.0% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.07 $10.61 $1.97 38.7% 37.8% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $19.21 $0.45 6.8% 6.4% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.76 $1.69 21.6% 22.4% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.70 $66.80 $18.75 260.9% 271.0% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $6.00 $2.25 63.0% 62.6% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.36 $0.22 -24.9% -26.9% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.59 $0.46 3.4% 2.7% 0.0%
 Totals  12.9% 11.9% 9.0%

This table is pretty eye-opening if you really look at it.  I suppose you see the "bond bubble" at work.  JQC is up 14.3% and was up 8.4% June 1st. This is a sleepy bond fund.  DSL is up 6.8% since I bought. TGONF has popped from 12.5% to 21.6%. Crazy, but perhaps a bit scary.

Other Stuff

I did sell most of my PN and all my AMAG (discretionary buys).  My two main buys were additional VIAB and EMG.  I still also own MGIC, WLDN, GNW and SPCB in this category (along with the SDS hedge).

Have a great week.