Tuesday, July 22, 2014

A Little More Time

Quick Pulse of Holdings

I have a little more time today.  After a disastrous stretch (I had 9 days where I lost 7%), the ship seems to have righted itself a bit. I am up 1.6% these past three days. So for the year, I am now up 10.4% versus 7.5% for the benchmark.

I did make a new speculative buy today, TUBE. This is a recent IPO (my price was a very good $9.40). I know my record has been subpar in the IPO space, but that was really due to one gigantic flop, LMNS.

My MFI portfolio has been struggling in July. You can see it in this table:

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
7/1/2014 40.63%      177,971
Current 37.34%      175,497

It has lost ground in the month on both an absolute and relative basis. One of my November MFI stocks, GA, was retired yesterday.  The company has been taken private and I got a final lump sum at $11.90 a share.

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $20.14 $0.00 17.0% 11.0%
ATVI $17.71 $22.94 $0.20 30.7% 11.0%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 11.0%
RPXC $17.04 $16.45 $0.00 -3.5% 11.0%
SYNA $48.01 $83.84 $0.00 74.6% 11.0%
Totals 30.6% 11.0%

It was a solid pick.

Well, it is 9:30 here. I think I am going to call it time to stop the blog. Good night.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Insanity

Getting Crazy

Starting this past weekend, I am going through an insane stretch of work, business travel and vacation.  I took my wife and daughter to Florida for the weekend and hung out with them.

Tomorrow I am in NYC (with a very busy work week) until Friday. Then Saturday I fly to Switzerland for eight days. Finally, I will have after that a week at home before heading to Cape Cod on a family vacation.

So while I expect to be blogging some, it will be less and shorter than normal.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Back In New York

On Wall Street

Watching CNBC this morning actually on the corner of Wall Street.  That of course means Leo's Bagels.  Not sure which I like more, their bagels or their coffee.

Listening to the financial news, it is obvious I have missed many opportunities this year.  INTC had great earnings last night, I was so stupid to sell what I had called 100 times a core holding in the $24 range.  Then I saw IGT is getting bought, I had bought them on that basis and then settled for a small profit. So my selling this year has not exactly been well-timed.

As I kick myself, I should mention I am taking a course on Social Psychology this summer through Coursera.  I was reading the text book last night and they commented that things are always obvious in hindsight.  But getting things right in real time is a lot tougher. Otherwise we'd all be millionaires! I encourage my 33 followers to check out Coursera, it is pretty neat. The course I am taking is being taken this summer by 143,000 people!

The Struggle Is Real

I continue to struggle these past two weeks as you can see to the right.  I did get good news on BAC this morning (Bank of America Reports Second-quarter 2014 Net Income of $2.3 Billion, or $0.19 per Diluted Share, on Revenue of $22.0 Billion). That should cause my warrants to continue to climb towards a great price with my 2019 target date.

I also got good news on IBM in my kid's college funds (Daily Report: Apple and IBM Form ‘Landmark Partnership’ on Business Software).

Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It's Off To Work I Go

Off to work.  At some point my portfolio will bounce back. Still doing well in the larger scheme, I am up 11% on the year and am beating the index by 4 points for the year.  Road bumps do occur from time to time. One can always use hindsight to see how one could have done better.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Funkytown

Well, all I can say is that was a good thing I had a substantial lead on the indices heading into the second half. July has not exactly been fireworks and celebration so far.

So far for July I am down 3%. It is worse in the past six days, down 4.2%. The R3K is basically flat for July and down 80 basis points in past week.

I was hurt today by GTAT dropping another 5%. That is 22% over six days, seems clear that is the cause of a lot of my pain. I clearly should not have added 28% to my position at 16.52, could have gotten more than a buck cheaper with patience. Today's drop was caused by another 2014 earnings warning. The suggestion was that GTAT was having some quality issues as a supplier. I have to admit that the claim does appear to have the potential to make some sense as AAPL last payment to GTAT has apparently not been made yet, which does suggest some sort of target/hurdle has not been achieved.

I do not think it is time to go chicken little, the basic thesis should still be true. Sapphire is/will be used in AAPL products and when that gets going full bore, GTAT stock price and earnings should pop. The basic thesis still being true, doesn't really make me feel better.  If I was not overweight (stock that is), I would have to seriously consider buying more GTAT at these prices. It does make you wonder if CEO sales were based upon his internal knowledge that they might struggle. I have not seen any d&o suits filed yet, but if GTAT does come out with some sort of reduced guidance and the stock drops more - I can see the lawyers racing to chase the ambulance.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Zippy Update

Just got back from Cape Elizabeth.  Very nice location, very relaxing - definitely enjoyed a morning in Portland.  Now back at it back home.

It was a terrible week.I lost 4.3% while the market was down 1.3%. Still, I am up 12% for the year.

MFI Stocks

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $239.78 $3.00 29.6% 20.0%
FLR $66.06 $77.00 $0.53 17.4% 20.0%
AGX $15.60 $36.75 $0.75 140.4% 20.0%
KLIC $11.29 $14.21 $0.00 25.9% 20.0%
RPXC $15.92 $16.80 $0.00 5.5% 20.0%
Totals 43.8% 20.0%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.71 $0.00 14.5% 10.3%
ATVI $17.71 $22.44 $0.20 27.8% 10.3%
GA $9.04 $11.88 $0.23 34.0% 10.3%
RPXC $17.04 $16.80 $0.00 -1.4% 10.3%
SYNA $48.01 $88.18 $0.00 83.7% 10.3%
Totals 31.7% 10.3%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $22.44 $0.20 32.2% 10.3%
KLAC $61.47 $74.61 $0.90 22.8% 10.3%
RPXC $16.22 $16.80 $0.00 3.6% 10.3%
SNDK $69.55 $104.97 $0.23 51.3% 10.3%
WNR $39.11 $40.49 $0.52 4.9% 10.3%
Totals 22.9% 10.3%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.71 $0.00 0.7% 4.9%
CA $29.54 $27.98 $0.25 -4.4% 4.9%
CSCO $22.79 $25.52 $0.19 12.8% 4.9%
NSR $25.82 $26.89 $0.00 4.2% 4.9%
RCII $28.78 $25.88 $0.23 -9.3% 4.9%
Totals 0.8% 4.9%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 43.8% 31.7% 22.9% 0.8% 25.4%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 40.8%
MFI Overall Gain 64.0% 89.3% 119.1% 34.1% 76.6%
Current Balance      40,992       47,332     54,785      33,519    176,628
R3K Current Tranche 20.0% 50.7% 10.3% 4.9% 21.5%
R3K Overall Gain 46.5% 50.7% 33.6% 24.8% 37.4%
R3K Balance      36,635       37,683     33,406      29,722    137,446
Annualized IRR 29.5% 46.9% 72.1% 28.0% 45.4%

You can see the May  tranche is struggling. It did start to pull back even during the week, but the RCII implosion sent them reeling.

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
7/1/2014 40.63%      177,971
Current 39.18%      176,628
Discretionary Portfolio

 Obviously, GTAT struggled during the week.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         8,000         5.73                 7.04 22.8% 18.2% 4.6%
EDV             139    101.20            104.84 3.6% 7.1% -3.5%
GNW       11,000         9.16               16.62 81.5% 30.5% 51.0%
GTAT       18,000       10.49               16.05 52.9% 6.6% 46.4%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               27.93 31.5% 19.5% 12.1%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.21 23.8% 14.9% 8.9%
RIOM       25,000         2.01                 2.53 25.6% 5.0% 20.5%
TC       20,000         2.94                 2.84 -3.4% -0.7% -2.7%
TSL         4,000       11.13               11.44 2.8% -0.1% 2.9%
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 38.1% 11.9% 26.2%
Closed 2.3% 1.2% 1.0%
Combined 6.8% 2.6% 4.2%
You can see I added to GTAT position. Also GNW fell a bit during the week.  But I can be patient.

Dividend Portfolio

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,096         8.03             8.91            10,119.88 19.9% 21.2% -1.3%
BBEP          5,713       16.74           21.79              9,693.96 40.3% 14.7% 25.6%
CSQ          6,954         8.69           11.97            13,707.39 60.4% 55.6% 4.8%
FSC          8,395         9.57             9.73              3,068.21 5.5% 5.1% 0.4%
GPS          2,000       40.55           40.65                  440.00 0.8% 4.0% -3.3%
NADL          5,109         9.62           10.46              1,200.00 11.2% 2.6% 8.6%
NTC          6,753       12.01           12.51              1,899.93 6.5% 5.8% 0.7%
O              598       20.92           45.11              9,350.71 190.3% 116.2% 74.2%
OIBAX          4,136         5.00             6.18              8,195.12 63.2% 125.7% -62.4%
TGONF          7,000       10.27           10.08              2,367.50 1.4% 19.3% -17.9%
TIME          2,000       22.89           25.15                           -   9.9% 0.3% 9.6%
TPVG          5,128       15.54           15.84              1,958.70 4.4% 3.3% 1.1%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  62,001 20.1% 18.0% 2.2%
Closed 12.0% 10.9% 1.1%
Combined 13.2% 12.0% 1.3%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.8%
2014 Gain 6.4%