Thursday, April 17, 2014

Only 11 Trading Days Left On May MFI Tranche!

I only have 11 trading days left on the May 6th 2013 MFI tranche. It is looking like it will be a solid winner. The five stocks (RDA, KLIC, CF, NVDA and CYOU) are up in aggregate about 31%, so that is extremely satisfactory (broader market is up 18%).

I have kicked around the five new names many times in my head. I actually created a list of five stocks in mid February that I tracked (K, SYMC, CSCO, SAIC and MO). They have done very well, up about 7% in that time frame. But I think the ship has sailed on several of those names.

Even with the volatility in the stock market and some earnings reports coming out, the core list of stocks via the screen has not been changing much. I think the names that interest me include:

MSFT, CSCO, COH, NSR, BKE, PETS, PFMT, EGL, NTES, NUS and SNDK.  Maybe I will add AGX into the mix as well. Quite a few dividend payers in there.  More retail than usual, but I have been underweight retail a long time and some of them are starting to look pretty reasonable. One Chinese company in there for good measure, I have done pretty well with my Chinese picks (RDA and GA have both been big winners, CYOU not so good).

Today was my second straight day of major out performance. I was up almost exactly 1%, versus a quarter for the market. SNDK and LMNS were the major water carriers. I am not sure if we are over the mini correction (if so, the Moose was wrong). But it is certainly not the time for a victory lap either.  I will likely still continue to steer my portfolio more towards 30% cash and move away from the names I have less confidence in. But my preference is to do the trades on my terms. I have no need to panic, with 25% cash and no stocks on margin - if I cannot get a reasonable price, I can simply wait.

Is KO A Value Stock?

On my drive down to New York last night, I listened to Mad Money on the radio. Cramer had a segment where he described KO as a "value" stock.  Now he must speak a different language than every other value investor I have ever listened to, because he never once spoke about valuation in why KO was a value stock.  Instead he focus on predictability of earnings, management of cash, expense management, opportunities in emerging markets and opportunistic investments.

In my mind, those items make KO a "blue chip" stock, but not a value stock. Perhaps they are a value stock compared to some of the momentum plays Cramer discusses, but at 20x trailing earnings! I struggle placing KO in the value bucket.

The more interesting segment was on SD. This is a stock I owned for a stretch last year, but then bailed on them. That was a mistake on my part as they have moved up over 20% since I sold. Cramers thesis is that they are still hated by analysts and over time, the new management team will get credibility and some of the many hold and sell positions will be raised. There is a perverse logic in that approach. If I did not already have a large position in oil and gas with BBEP, I would likely take another hard look at SD.  However, readers will recall that my longer term outlook on oil is negative, so it really is not a sector I want more exposure.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Great Day

Up almost 2% today. They markets are all of a sudden all over the place.  Not sure what it means, but seems like we are watching a real bull bear fight. In actual earnings news, I had my first major report of the season. SNDK announced after the bell, and it was a blow out quarter (recall my Don't Buy Sandisk- Until I Get My Shares blog).  They were up over 5% after hours. Great company in a great spot in the market. Computer memory and storage is just huge right now.

In the big apple next two nights. Look for me tomorrow morning at Leo's bagels.

Don't Rock The Boat

My portfolio continues to have extremely choppy results. A chunk of it is my fault as I took extra risk with buys like LMNS and TWOU and sold my stalwart stocks like CSCO and INTC.  Oh well, c'est la vie.

That being said, despite the missteps, all is not exactly lost. I am still up over 2% on the year, so if I had not looked at my portfolio between January 1st and tax day, I would probably be pleased. Of course I was up over 11% earlier in April.

Despite the moose going to bonds, I have not made any material changes to my portfolio. I tried to sell my TWOU, but it just kept dropping. And LMNS at under $9 is too cheap to sell (IMHO). So I trudge onwards.

I did have a profitable day trade yesterday with TZA, making 3% in under an hour on a pretty large investment, so that helped a bit. And then I did buy (with my multiplier) 4,000 more shares of GTAT at 15.10 yesterday (it was in free fall), and I am hopeful that will be a very profitable trade.

INTC had great earnings last night, I am still kicking myself for selling (and taking a tax hit) such a great company.

Monday, April 14, 2014

The Moose Switches Out Of Stocks

Decision Moose Switches Out Of Stocks

As my readers know, I have commented many times that I am watching two signals for a bear flag.  One is the 50 ema for the IWM versus the 200 day ema.  That flag is not bearish yet.  The other is from decision moose (Moosignal), and today they switched 100% into treasuries.

I was on the bubble about moving my portfolio more towards a 30% cash position.  I think this fact clinches it.  This morning I will sell some stocks.  Stay tuned.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

I Told You So

I Told You So

There is a certain satisfaction with telling someone "I Told You So".  Barron's Magazine based
their entire weekend magazine on those four little words.  Of course, sometimes being early can be costly. I say that because they gave their warning on November 13th.  On that date, the Nasdaq was at 3,965.  Then it got as high as 4,300.  They are now back at 3,999. So selling your stuff on November 13th would have cost you.  Not sure Barron's can claim "I Told You So" quite yet.  Well, reading their article a bit, they actually identified 11 stocks in that article as being specifically over-valued.  That group is down 11% in aggregate since the article (Potbelly and Linked In are the two that have fallen the most).  That is a successful "I Told You So".

Not So Smart

I have definitely strayed from some of my basic investing guideposts.  I got caught somewhat in the
lust for easy money in recent IPOs.  You see everyone else making "easy money" and it is so tempting to jump in.  The more I think about it, I think I will just call it an expensive lesson and sell my two remaining IPO holdings (TWOU and LMNS).  They are certainly both more speculative than investments.  And the good news is that while they have done poorly, I am still in relatively good shape in 2014.  The other "mistake" was selling INTC (and probably to a lesser extent CSCO). They are both been long term core holdings in my dividend portfolio and it was impatient of me to rationalize their sale.  We all make mistakes.  The key idea is not to make any that are so severe that you can not recover.  And in reality, while some of the recent speculative buys will cost me $, some of my other speculative buys such as ATHM and HIMX made me a ton of $, so at the end of the day, it was likely a wash.

The Contest

Readers will recall that I started a contest with Barron's, Merrill Lynch and others at the start of the year. I know after the first couple of months, I was thinking how smart Cantor-Fitzgerald was as they were stomping everyone.  Let us see how everyone looks, now that the tide has gone out a bit!

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
MFI Diary GNW          15.53            16.00                      -   3.0%
GTAT             8.72            16.20                      -   85.8%
SBS          11.34               8.93                      -   -21.3%
HIMX          14.72            10.47                      -   -28.9%
HIG-WT          27.53            24.73                      -   -10.2%
KLIC          13.30            11.96                      -   -10.1%
CF        233.04          237.72                  1.00 2.4%
BAC-WTA             6.47               7.60                      -   17.5%
RPXC          16.90            16.40                      -   -3.0%
ATVI          17.83            19.04                  0.20 7.9%
Total 4.3%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Barron's ABX          17.63            18.62                      -   5.6%
CNQ          33.10            39.40                      -   19.0%
DE          91.33            92.01                      -   0.7%
GM          40.87            31.93                      -   -21.9%
INTC          25.96            26.18                  0.23 1.7%
MET          53.92            49.19                  0.28 -8.3%
NSRGY          73.59            77.13                      -   4.8%
SPG        152.16          166.38                  1.25 10.2%
AAL          30.02            33.68                      -   12.2%
C          52.11            45.68                  0.01 -12.3%
Total 1.2%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
ML/BAC ADM          43.40            44.41                  0.24 2.9%
CAT          90.81          101.45                  0.60 12.4%
CTL          31.85            33.35                      -   4.7%
C          52.11            45.68                  0.01 -12.3%
CSCO          22.43            22.46                  0.34 1.6%
DVA          63.37            67.30                      -   6.2%
XOM        101.20            96.72                  0.63 -3.8%
GM          40.87            31.93                  0.30 -21.1%
NEE          85.62            95.15                      -   11.1%
NUE          53.38            50.69                      -   -5.0%
Total -0.3%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Eric Y CA          33.65            29.41                  0.25 -11.9%
CLCT          17.15            20.82                  0.33 23.3%
CSCO          22.43            22.46                  0.34 1.6%
LO          50.68            52.24                  0.62 4.3%
MANT          29.93            28.67                      -   -4.2%
MSFT          37.41            39.21                  0.28 5.6%
PETS          16.63            12.79                  0.17 -22.1%
RGR          73.09            61.03                      -   -16.5%
USMO          14.28            17.14                      -   20.0%
VCI          34.25            34.02                      -   -0.7%
Total 0.0%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Cantor/Fitz AAPL        561.02          519.61                  3.05 -6.8%
JNPR          22.57            24.29                      -   7.6%
DLR          49.12            51.68                      -   5.2%
FB          54.65            58.53                      -   7.1%
GOOG    1,120.71      1,061.20                      -   -5.3%
DATA          68.93            63.17                      -   -8.4%
SPLK          68.67            57.68                      -   -16.0%
SVU             7.29               6.71                      -   -8.0%
TMO        111.35          115.77                      -   4.0%
VSTM          11.40               9.37                      -   -17.8%
Total -3.8%

Hmmm, amazingly I am still in first.  GTAT makes up for a lot of sins. And in the PWP contest, out of over 550 contestants, I am still #10. Woo-hoo!