Thursday, June 21, 2018

Upcoming July MFI Formula Tranche

Upcoming July MFI Formula Tranche

Well, just a few more weeks on my July 2017 MFI Formula tranche.  I actually started in July 10th (can't recall why I started late)... so I will have to start the new one "late" as well.  The July MFI Formula tranche.

As a reminder, here are my steps in MFI Formula Picks


  1. Start with official screen (will use 50 stocks > $130m)
  2. Then filter out the 16 smallest market cap stocks from the screen.
  3. Then filter out stocks that don't have a dividend yield of 2.4% or greater.
  4. At this point I can toss out one name I don't want.
  5. Then random number generator to get my five picks.

The retiring tranche has been one of my all-time greats, I'll be sorry to see them go:



7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $43.74 $0.91 44.1% 16.8%
 GME  $20.95 $15.71 $1.52 -17.8% 16.8%
 HPQ  $17.60 $23.30 $0.53 35.4% 16.8%
 RGR  $60.70 $60.35 $0.99 1.1% 16.8%
 SYNT  $16.21 $34.07 $0.00 110.2% 16.8%
 Totals  34.6% 16.8%


Pretty good, right?  Hopefully I have not jinxed and caused wheels to fall off final two weeks.  So you can see why I can't start "early" (moving date back to 7/1) as I need to make sure everything is LT capital gains.

Possible New Tranche

Here are the 50 stocks from official screen this morning:

Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
ACOR                   1,426         30.50                     -   0.00%
AEIS                   2,412         61.01                     -   0.00%
ALSN                   5,712         41.73                0.61 1.45%
MO              107,550         56.76                2.71 4.78%
AMCX                   3,964         67.42                     -   0.00%
ABC                 20,254         93.23                1.52 1.63%
AMAT                 48,941         48.58                0.51 1.04%
AGX                       551         35.30                1.25 3.55%
BIIB                 61,474      296.80                     -   0.00%
HRB                   5,017         24.07                0.96 3.98%
BPT                       566         27.05                4.01 14.82%
CASA                   1,466         17.97                     -   0.00%
CERC                       150           4.89                     -   0.00%
CJREF                   1,018           4.88                0.90 18.36%
DLX                   3,266         67.45                1.21 1.79%
DNB                   4,659      126.68                2.05 1.62%
EVC                       413           4.90                0.20 4.09%
ESRX                 45,286         80.10                     -   0.00%
FTSI                   1,733         15.37                     -   0.00%
GME                   1,603         15.71                1.52 9.67%
GILD                 92,719         71.46                2.17 3.04%
HPQ                 37,879         23.30                0.55 2.35%
IMMR                       476         16.34                     -   0.00%
INVA                   1,643         15.23                     -   0.00%
IDCC                   2,945         84.75                1.35 1.59%
IPG                   9,006         23.42                0.78 3.35%
KLAC                 17,236      109.77                2.51 2.29%
LRCX                 30,176      174.33                2.55 1.46%
MCFT                       557         29.86                     -   0.00%
MSB                       329         25.20                2.43 9.64%
MIK                   3,317         18.75                     -   0.00%
MPAA                       374         20.00                     -   0.00%
MSGN                   1,694         23.40                     -   0.00%
NHTC                       260         23.73                0.50 2.11%
NLS                       495         16.30                     -   0.00%
EGOV                   1,097         16.55                0.32 1.94%
OMC                 17,041         75.16                2.36 3.14%
PTN                       182           0.92                     -   0.00%
SRNE                       580           6.65                     -   0.00%
SP                       870         39.15                     -   0.00%
TGNA                   2,455         12.07                0.28 2.30%
TVTY                   1,393         35.30                     -   0.00%
TRNC                       639         18.04                     -   0.00%
TUP                   2,247         44.30                2.71 6.12%
UIS                       698         13.75                     -   0.00%
UTHR                   5,377      118.31                     -   0.00%
VIAB                 11,804         30.24                0.80 2.65%
HCC                   1,335         25.79                0.20 0.77%
WDC                 24,072         80.22                1.98 2.47%
XOMA                       178         20.97                     -   0.00%

Interestingly, the cutoff for top 2/3 market caps is 970m (it generally runs 600m to 700m).  So fewer small stocks are making list right now.  So if we filter on that and the 2.4% dividend yield we get:


Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 MO            107,550         56.76              2.71 4.78%
2 HRB                 5,017         24.07              0.96 3.98%
3 CJREF                 1,018           4.88              0.90 18.36%
4 GME                 1,603         15.71              1.52 9.67%
5 GILD              92,719         71.46              2.17 3.04%
6 IPG                 9,006         23.42              0.78 3.35%
7 OMC              17,041         75.16              2.36 3.14%
8 TUP                 2,247         44.30              2.71 6.12%
9 VIAB              11,804         30.24              0.80 2.65%
10 WDC              24,072         80.22              1.98 2.47%

I have been toying with idea of removing market cap restriction, as that has actually been hampering my performance (AGX, BPT and EVC would get added) but I will not make changes this time.  I have also considered moving from 4 tranches a year to just 2 and then let each tranche have all the stocks listed (removing random number generator step), but again will not make that change right now.

Just for fun, I ran randomize to see what I'd get if rolling over today:


Random # Stock
9 VIAB
7 OMC
10 WDC
4 GME
3 CJREF