Sunday, April 22, 2018

Just Spitballing About Some of My Stocks

Just Spitballing About Some of My Stocks

I always try to read a bunch over the weekend.  Thought I'd spit out some quick comments thoughts about some of my stock holdings.  View this as if we're sitting at a bar or on an elevator.  Not meant to be in-depth, but high level.  Also, please view with proverbial grain o salt.  These are views if everything goes right.  I know (from hard earned experience) that bad surprises are relatively common as well.

  • QCOM - stunning that they are at $51.44 and yielding 4.1%.  Broadcom felt they were worth $82.  The sell-off seems way overdone.
  • AGX at $37.10 and yielding 2.65% seems to me like a steal.  They have no debt.  Earnings are expected to drop in 2018 but then ramp back up next year.  That is the nature of a business working on a limited number of large projects.  But even at the low earnings, they're trading under 20x earnings and if you back out excess cash, much much lower.
  • AMID is priced at $11.50 and yields 14.5% and has been knocked down from recent merger with Southcross.  Everything I read says there is shortage and huge demand for pipeline capacity.  
  • CPLP is at 3.28 with about a 10% yield.  They will likely be locked at that price/yield until they increase distribution.  They cover distribution easily and have some favorable tailwinds in container space.  So I think an increase in 2018 is likely.
  • DDR is at $6.75 with a 10.5% yield.  These retail REITS (like CBL and WPG) have been under pressure from Amazon effect and higher interest rates down the road.  But DDR (in my view) is further down the road in improving their portfolio of real estate and has substantial insider buying.  They spiked to $8.90 in December when they announced they were spinning off some of their less desirable assets, still seems like a good plan but market has beaten them down.
  • FUNC is a small (under $200m) bank in MD.  They are profitable and trade at just 1.29 x book value.  OLBK (also in MD), which just bought BYBK, trades at 2x book.  Not saying FUNC will catch a bid, but the idea is not crazy.
  • ICHR sold off double digits this week.  They are down to 22.48 and have been as high as $35.  They're estimated to earn over $4 in 2019.  Is this a cheap stock? Heck yeah!  If they stay in this price range, look for ICHR to make my May MFI portfolio.
  • ISBC is another of my small/medium sized banks, for which I keep waiting for a catalyst.  Up 2.7% plus dividends since I started buying last summer.  I view as a relatively safe haven.  Trades at 1.28 of BV and pays a 2.6% dividend.  I really view as more upside than downside.
  • KCLI is a stock for those who like watching paint dry.  I am not sure they are even still listed, certainly a lightly traded stock.   They are trading at 42.76 and have a 2.5% yield. Book value is 737m and they trade at a mere 453m.  That in a nutshell is why KCLI is one of my largest holdings.  They make like $30m a year, which is pretty bad.  But seems like they really can't drop much further and there are numerous catalysts that could take them up.
  • KNOP is another shipper that has quite a few longer term contracts and not much competition.  So not a lot of upside or downside in my view.
  • LADR is a REIT that everyone seems to agree has a nice niche and is well-positioned.  They have steadily increased quarterly distributions from 25 cents to .315 over past three years.  They had a 10% owner make a bid @$15 for entire company (when around 13.50).  It was a lowball bid and rejected.  Seems reasonable to expect a higher bid sometime in future. In meantime,  enjoy 8.4% yield that is steadily increasing and is not as sensitive to interest rate rises as some other REITs.
  • MAC is a REIT that has attracted activist interest (third point and Starboard value).  They have a 5.4% yield and trade around $57.  Things are falling in place for them to get sold (CEO stepping down and change of contracts, golden parachutes, for senior management).  We'll see, I have see this play out before - sometimes very well and sometimes disappointing "take-under", but risk/reward seems worth it to me.
  • MTG is a large (but formerly larger) holding for me that has dropped  in 2018 from $16 to under $11.  Yuck.  I am tempted though to add.  Two things caused drop. They are a mortgage insurer and a competitor (Arch) signed a deal with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac that the market felt was detrimental to MTG.  Then MTG announced that they were lowering premiums about 10% to reflect federal income tax savings.  This may have been required by regulators (am not sure) as I believe mortgage insurers have to file rates with state regulators.  If that is case, profit margins should still be about the same.  Analysts think they trade at under 10x next year earnings and a 1.25 price to book.  This is a cheap stock, happy to wait and let compounding work its magic.  I believe two catalysts that caused drop are way overblown.
  • NS is a MLP (involved in storage) that I was way early on.  They went through a merger in 2017 and overpaid.  That pressured their dividend and in Feb they cut the dividend from like $1.09 to 63 cents.  The stock dropped from $31 to $20.50 post the cut.  Ouch!  But I decided to double down on March 21st and literally doubled my shares at $21.47.  It seems to me that the bad news is all priced in, decks are cleared and they can start going up again.  And even with dividend cut, given price drop, they're yielding 11.3%.
  • SLSDF is my bag holder stock.  They provide fracking sand and every quarter they are producing more sand at higher prices.  And every quarter their stock price drops as the market seems convinced that either a bunch of sand is coming on market from other sources or alternatives are being tried.  My basis is 62 cents, the stock is a true penny stock at 25 cents. Sum of the parts analysis has them worth more than $1, but I am starting to question the validity of that calc.  Either way, I am in until something happens.
  • SSW is one of my biggest success stories of late.  My purchase in March is up over 40% to almost $8. DB issued report on Friday saying $13 was possible.  They just bought out a competitor, business is booming and they have well-credentialed management (David Sokol) unlike many shipping companies... which seem to enjoy dealing from the bottom of the deck.
  • TK and TGP are two of my TK holdings.  TGP is in the process of having cash flow ramp up significantly, new builds will be adding $250m of cash flow.  It is highly likely they will be bumping their distribution significantly in next 12 months.  TK benefits from TGP as well as other Teekay companies (which all seem to have positive trends).
  • WLFC is the last one I'll discuss.  This has also been a great success, running from $25 to $35.  They are making money (like $3 a share) and BV is now north of $40.

Ok, enough rambling.

Friday, April 20, 2018

MFI Diary - Weekend Update 4/21/18

MFI Diary - Weekend Update 4/21/18

Greetings from Pittsburgh!  Today we watched some of the Buggy Races (part of Spring Carnival) at Carnegie Mellon.  Teams compete in relay fashion trying to get a "buggy" around a race course (perhaps 1.5 miles).  For the uphill portions (it is a hilly course), the buggy is pushed by runners as shown in picture (there are 5 runners on a team and you relay buggy from one runner to next) and the downhill portions are raced ala a soapbox derby (hard to believe, but there is a driver in the shown buggy).  It is actually pretty exciting and very competitive.  I highly recommend if you are ever in Pittsburgh near end of April.

Welcome to the almost world-famous MFI Diary.  This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets".  I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.

And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting posts. 
I encourage you to give it a whirl (Guide To New Readers).  (PS - I continue to struggle to make this
link work.  You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a non-economist, non-CFA with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor (pretty clear as I ended 1st quarter in the red overall).  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Onwards.


Last Week

It was a better week for me.  Kind of a reversal.  After my Misc portfolio dragging me down for what seemed to be eons, it finally actually had a very good week, up 3.1% while the Russell 3000 was up only 60 basis points. Yes, it even makes my feet smile a little bit (very good album by the way if you've never given it a whirl).

My dividend portfolio also had a good week.  And I did buy some stocks this week, which I will list later (I know, the excitement)... including a new stock for dividend portfolio. But my MFI portfolios struggled a bit, finishing the week in the red.

The fact that I put some fresh $ into the market is a definite "Dennis Gartman" signal that the market has reached its peak.  We do continue to see the yield curve flatten, great article about that (NO BETTER SIGNAL THAN THE YIELD CURVE).

Here is table showing my performance:

 Component   YTD   2nd Quarter         Week      Change 
 Overall  -1.4% +1.7% +0.9%
 MFI Select  -0.3% -2.0% -1.3%
 MFI Formula  +3.1% +1.9% +0.8%
 MFI Combined  +1.4% -0.1% -0.3%
 Miscellaneous  -6.4% +3.8% +3.1%
 Dividend  -1.1% +2.1% +0.9%
 Dividend Index  -3.1% +0.6% +0.1%
 R3K Index  +0.5% +1.2% +0.6%
 Blended Index  -1.0% +1.0% +0.4%
 MFI Index  +9.8% +2.7% +0.5%
 GARIX  +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%


I have added a new column (to make me feel better), showing 2nd quarter performance along with YTD and weekly.  It does show I am doing better in Misc and Dividend in Q2 and struggling a bit in MFI, while results for the year are switched.  But the MFI Index is cooking in Q2 and YTD. Go figure.

MFI Select

I have two portfolios of MFI stocks involving real money.  I call in first (and oldest) MFI Select.  That is because I allow myself to pick whatever stocks I want, even those not on the official screen (although they always have to have MFI qualities of good companies at good prices).  I started MFI Select in August 2012 after quitting MFI for a year due to frustration at sub par results (it can be a challenging investing approach to stick with).  My MFI Select  portfolio consists of 4 tranches of 5 stocks apiece.  I buy and hold the stocks in each tranche for a year.  Here are the 4 open tranches:


5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.50 $0.00 -2.7% 13.1%
 TGNA  $25.75 $19.80 $0.28 -22.0% 13.1%
 TIME  $15.05 $18.50 $0.08 23.5% 13.1%
 MSGN  $23.55 $22.55 $0.00 -4.2% 13.1%
 QCOM  $54.93 $51.44 $2.28 -2.2% 13.1%
 Totals  -1.5% 13.1%
8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $610.00 $3.81 3.8% 10.1%
 ICHR  $19.80 $22.48 $0.00 13.5% 10.1%
 MD  $43.00 $51.03 $0.00 18.7% 10.1%
 SIMO  $43.05 $48.15 $0.60 13.2% 10.1%
 RHI  $44.15 $58.56 $0.76 34.4% 10.1%
 Totals  16.7% 10.1%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $22.55 $0.00 35.3% 5.0%
 CELG  $100.60 $88.95 $0.00 -11.6% 5.0%
 EVC  $5.78 $5.05 $0.10 -10.9% 5.0%
 SIMO  $46.88 $48.15 $0.30 3.3% 5.0%
 VIAB  $24.41 $30.66 $0.40 27.3% 5.0%
 Totals  8.7% 5.0%
2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $37.10 $0.25 -14.2% -4.4%
 CASA  $18.81 $30.12 $0.00 60.1% -4.4%
 KLAC  $109.80 $101.48 $0.59 -7.0% -4.4%
 THO  $136.33 $101.66 $0.37 -25.2% -4.4%
 WDC  $87.74 $89.56 $0.50 2.6% -4.4%
 Totals  3.3% -4.4%

You can see that the May tranche has been pretty mediocre (interestingly, a consistent issue for May tranches), but the other 3 tranches are leading the R3K (Russell 3000).  This was a very tough week for tech stocks as TSM announced lowered guidance, so all my chip stocks (like KLAC and ICHR) really struggled.

Here is a table showing an aggregated version of all my tranches, open and closed.  I do publish individual tranches (closed) once a quarter if readers want to see all my historical picks.


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  16.7% 8.7% 3.3% -1.5% 6.5%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 35.0%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  115.2% 365.9% 231.5% 37.9% 187.6%
 Current Balance         53,788           116,467           82,875        34,484         287,613
 R3K Current Tranche  10.1% 5.0% -4.4% 13.1% 6.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  110.9% 115.2% 93.0% 80.5% 99.9%
 R3K Balance         52,734             53,802           48,238        45,128         199,901
 Annualized IRR  14.4% 32.7% 25.8% 6.7% 19.9%


You can see it was not a very good week.  My 4 current tranches are at 6.5% and benchmark is 6.0%, so tightening up (note I only have two weeks left of mediocre May tranche and then it'll slide from "Current" to "previous" row).  Also, my annualized IRR dropped up 20%, to 19.9%.  Obviously that is still very good and I have always expected that I would drop at some time (gravity is a bitch).

Here are the individual stocks for the week, you can see the tech/chip issues if you look really hard (ha, ha).


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 MSGN              22.35         22.55                       -   0.9%
 SIMO              48.79         48.15                       -   -1.3%
 VIAB              30.70         30.66                       -   -0.1%
 CASA              30.34         30.12                       -   -0.7%
 KLAC            107.59       101.48                       -   -5.7%
 THO            107.55       101.66                       -   -5.5%
 AGX              37.60         37.10                       -   -1.3%
 WDC              89.93         89.56                       -   -0.4%
 EVC                4.80            5.05                       -   5.2%
 ICHR              25.69         22.48                       -   -12.5%
 CELG              89.40         88.95                       -   -0.5%
 RHI              58.56         58.56                       -   0.0%
 MD              52.59         51.03                       -   -3.0%
 QCOM              55.73         51.44                       -   -7.7%
 GHC            609.40       610.00                       -   0.1%
 TGNA              20.03         19.80                       -   -1.2%

I actually think the tech/chip sell off is an opportunity and I will likely consider a few in my upcoming May tranche (wow, just saw how much MD has sold off as well... they were over $55 just a few weeks back).

Finally,  here is a table showing growth of a hypothetical $100,000 spread over first 4 tranches of MFI Select:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
Current 87.71%        287,613            199,901

Bummer, it is now in the red for 2018.

MFI Formula

My second real $ MFI portfolio is MFI Formula.  It is the opposite of MFI Select => here all my stocks are picked via a formula and a random number generator (I know, it can be gut-wrenching to not have control at the micro level).  I started this approach in October 2014 and it also has 4 tranches with each tranche having 5 stocks.  As it is a formula and random number generator, I do get a fair # of duplicates within the 4 tranches.  Here are the open tranches... actually same series of tables:


7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $44.09 $0.91 45.3% 11.7%
 GME  $20.95 $12.88 $1.14 -33.1% 11.7%
 HPQ  $17.60 $21.53 $0.40 24.6% 11.7%
 RGR  $60.70 $56.25 $0.67 -6.2% 11.7%
 SYNT  $16.21 $28.14 $0.00 73.6% 11.7%
 Totals  20.8% 11.7%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $74.09 $1.60 75.5% 6.9%
 GILD  $82.85 $73.70 $1.09 -9.7% 6.9%
 GME  $20.50 $12.88 $0.76 -33.5% 6.9%
 HPQ  $20.22 $21.53 $0.27 7.8% 6.9%
 OMC  $74.80 $73.74 $1.15 0.1% 6.9%
 Totals  8.0% 6.9%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $171.56 $1.32 -2.4% -0.1%
 GME  $18.06 $12.88 $0.38 -26.6% -0.1%
 GILD  $71.64 $73.70 $0.57 3.7% -0.1%
 HRB  $26.34 $27.10 $0.24 3.8% -0.1%
 OMC  $72.81 $73.74 $0.60 2.1% -0.1%
 Totals  -3.9% -0.1%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $171.56 $0.00 3.1% 3.2%
 VIAB  $29.20 $30.66 $0.00 5.0% 3.2%
 GILD  $72.71 $73.70 $0.00 1.4% 3.2%
 TUP  $47.32 $41.69 $0.00 -11.9% 3.2%
 EGOV  $13.29 $14.30 $0.00 7.6% 3.2%
 Totals  1.0% 3.2%

Two winning and two losing... that has been the MO of Formula since the beginning, very very much neck and neck with benchmark.  That is not a bad result in this era where growth/momo stocks have been in greater favor than value stocks.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  8.0% -3.9% 1.0% 20.8% 5.6%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 16.5% 21.3% 26.7% 17.5%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 9.3% 25.2% -12.5% 6.9%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% 0.0% 2.8%
 MFI Overall Gain  22.5% 35.8% 53.0% 34.0% 36.4%
 Current Balance      306,058        339,531     382,895      334,637      1,363,121
 R3K Current Tranche  6.9% -0.1% 3.2% 11.7% 5.4%
 R3K Overall Gain  43.4% 34.8% 33.8% 30.0% 35.5%
 R3K Balance      358,265        336,967     334,661      324,673      1,354,564
 Annualized IRR  5.9% 9.7% 14.9% 11.0% 10.4%

Again, the neck and neck nature.  Current tranches up 5.6% vs 5.4% for R3K.  An overall 10.4% annual IRR.


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              75.22         73.70                       -   -2.0%
 AMGN            171.48       171.56                       -   0.0%
 OMC              71.86         73.74                       -   2.6%
 GME              13.61         12.88                       -   -5.4%
 HPQ              21.77         21.53                       -   -1.1%
 VIAB              30.70         30.66                       -   -0.1%
 EGOV              14.00         14.30                       -   2.1%
 TUP              41.71         41.69                       -   0.0%
 DIN              71.94         74.09                       -   3.0%
 SYNT              25.28         28.14                       -   11.3%
 HRB              26.05         27.10                       -   4.0%
 CSCO              43.00         44.09                       -   2.5%
 RGR              54.95         56.25                       -   2.4%

SYNT had good earnings, this has been one of my best MFI stocks ever.  It has been a winner across multiple tranches.  GME is just depressing. The whole reason I feel the formula approach "works" is that it tends to avoid "stinker" stocks, those that drop 30% or more.  My MFI analysis shows that about 1 in 7 (14%) stocks from MFI screen (over $100m) become a stinker.  But I have only had 2 stinkers in my 55 closed stock years (VIAB and BKE, both in July 2015).  But GME is a stinker twice (so far) in my 20 open positions and very close a 3rd time.  Ouch.

Here is how $100,000 has grown (hypothetically):


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
Current 0.86%        136,312            135,456

At least in the black for 2018... unlike Select.

Dividend Portfolio

That completes my discussion of things MFI.  Now I will talk about my other two investing approaches: Dividend and Miscellaneous.  My dividend portfolio is my largest portfolio.  It is not meant to be exciting, but rather produce income for me and wife as I am retired.  So it isn't just stocks, it has Closed end funds, mutual funds with bonds and preferred stocks.  I know that some of these may not perform well on an absolute basis in a rising interest rate environment, but I want some relative certainty on retirement income.  I have tried to pick some names that flex with interest rates, such as GLOP-PB, which has a floating (with Libor) feature (editor note: I just saw in table below that GLOP-PB shows as a 5.2% yield. That is incorrect as first dividend was just a partial quarter => it is a new issue The actual yield is 8.0% with the floating feature kicking in several years later, I think 3 years but maybe 5).

I did sell some of my RLJ-PA this week and bought some DDR.  RLJ just seems destined to keep going down... it just was not a smart buy.  DDR is riskier, but has a higher yield and strong insider buying.  They are also in the process of a spin off of some assets, which may unlock some value.  I also added a bit to KCLI, which just seems as certain an investment as there is out there for limited downside over next 4 years but very good upside (50%+).  

I also added to LADR this week as it sold off stupidly below $14 due to announcement of a suitor leaving (but the suitor only left because everyone knew their $15 bid was too low).  I also added to CPLP as they have exposure to containers (in shipping) an area that has been afire.  But while other container stocks have gone up substantially, CPLP has not (as it is a smaller portion of their fleet).

So yes, this was a very active week for me in my dividend stocks. Part of it was because I paid my taxes and decided it was time to put a little more money to work in what I viewed as good opportunities.  Here is my table of dividend stocks.  I am a bit lazy right now and have not added DDR to the table yet.  Probably next week.


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   12/30/17 Price   Yield   2018 
 TK      7.43         8.97      0.08 21.7% 2.3%           9.32 2.5% -3.8%
 OIBAX      5.91         6.03      0.25 6.2% 0.0%           5.96 3.9% 1.2%
 NS    29.41       21.28      0.91 -24.5% 2.7%        29.95 11.3% -28.9%
 KCLI    48.14       42.76      0.52 -10.1% 0.0%        45.25 2.5% -5.5%
 GLOP-PB    25.36       25.39      0.33 1.4% -0.2%        25.36 5.2% 0.1%
 TGP    18.28       18.70      0.14 3.1% 2.7%        20.15 3.0% -7.2%
 AMID    11.87       11.50      0.18 -1.6% 4.5%        13.35 14.3% -13.9%
 KNOP    21.30       20.80      0.52 0.1% 3.2%        20.75 10.0% 0.2%
 LADR    13.35       14.12      0.61 10.3% -5.2%        13.63 8.9% 3.6%
 CPLP      3.50         3.28      0.14 -2.4% 2.5%           3.36 9.8% -2.4%
 JQC      8.18         7.98      0.80 7.4% 0.4%           8.22 6.2% -2.9%
 ISBC    13.25       13.60      0.24 4.5% 0.7%        13.88 2.6% -2.0%
 EVG    14.46       13.35      0.64 -3.3% -1.6%        14.35 6.9% -7.0%
 FDEU    18.40       17.88      1.18 3.6% 0.7%        18.83 8.1% -5.0%
 PSXP    47.39       50.11      1.71 9.3% 2.2%        52.35 5.4% -4.3%
 RLJ-PA    28.45       25.40      1.46 -5.6% -0.4%        27.01 7.7% -6.0%
 SBRA    22.15       17.20      0.62 -19.6% 0.0%        18.77 10.5% -8.4%
 NRZ    16.56       16.55      1.67 10.0% 2.6%        17.88 12.1% -7.4%
 DSL    19.47       20.17      2.44 16.1% -0.5%        20.19 8.9% -0.1%
 OCSI      8.68         8.06      0.57 -0.5% 2.2%           8.40 9.4% -4.0%
 TGONF    11.04       12.79      1.96 33.7% -2.0%        13.30 5.6% -3.9%
 TOO      2.33         2.57      0.01 10.5% -1.2%           2.36 1.6% 8.9%
 O    26.04       49.53    21.44 172.5% -2.5%        57.02 5.3% -13.1%
 Totals  2.9% 0.8% 6.6% -1.0%

So it was actually a decent week.  I was up 90 basis points (80 basis points as shown here, plus my small bank portfolio which I'll discuss shortly), while my dividend index (40 securities from a Barron's article in December) was up just 10 basis points.  You can see AMID had a nice week, this is a stock I doubled down on 3/29 at $10.80.

I also have a basket of 10 smaller bank stocks.  They were up 2% on the week:


 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   2018 Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          19.25                 -   13.3% 9.4% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          26.50            0.15 3.8% 4.3% 2.4%
 FBIZ          23.69          25.88            0.14 9.9% 17.0% 2.2%
 FULT          18.81          17.15            0.23 -7.6% -4.2% 2.7%
 FNB          14.47          13.23            0.12 -7.7% -4.3% 3.6%
 MSBI          32.96          31.96            0.22 -2.4% -1.6% 2.8%
 NRIM          37.47          35.65            0.45 -3.6% 5.3% 2.7%
 PACW          48.30          50.98            0.50 6.6% 1.2% 4.1%
 SONA          17.13          16.01            0.08 -6.0% -0.1% 2.1%
 WNEB          10.88          10.85            0.04 0.1% -0.5% 1.5%
 Total  0.6% 2.7% 2.4%

This is a portfolio I expected to see some M and A in 2018.  So far crickets.  Finally, here are the 40 holdings from my dividend index:


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Weekly Change   Yield 
 AMLP                10.79          10.02               0.21 -5.2% 3.5%         8.40%
 NML                  9.38             8.55               0.22 -6.5% 3.8% 7.72%
 EPD                26.51          26.59               0.42 1.9% 3.2% 6.32%
 ETP                17.92          18.15               0.57 4.4% 6.5% 12.19%
 FDD                13.73          14.33               0.15 5.4% 1.2% 2.44%
 VGK                59.15          59.85               0.38 1.8% 0.5% 2.67%
 DDAIF                84.57          79.95               3.25 -1.6% -1.4% 5.63%
 NVS                83.96          77.88               2.75 -4.0% -3.9% 3.84%
 NOBL                64.04          62.31               0.33 -2.2% 0.1% 1.87%
 VYM                85.63          83.13               0.62 -2.2% -0.1% 2.95%
 MRK                56.27          58.83               0.48 5.4% 2.9% 3.23%
 PEP              119.92        102.48               0.81 -13.9% -6.2% 3.15%
 VNQ                82.98          74.06               0.98 -9.6% -0.8% 4.90%
 RQI                12.65          11.43               0.32 -7.1% -1.7% 4.81%
 TCO                65.43          54.95               0.63 -15.1% -3.8% 4.63%
 SLG              100.93          96.00               0.78 -4.1% 0.9% 3.29%
 T                38.88          34.67               0.98 -8.3% -1.3% 5.71%
 VZ                52.93          47.90               1.12 -7.4% 0.5% 4.89%
 CHL                50.54          46.52                    -   -8.0% -1.1% 3.93%
 DTEGY                17.66          17.30                    -   -2.0% 0.5% 3.93%
 DSU                11.70          11.45               0.28 0.2% -1.5% 4.19%
 HIO                  5.07             4.78               0.09 -4.0% -1.0% 4.66%
 MUB              110.74        108.17               0.84 -1.6% -0.3% 2.30%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.63               0.09 -0.6% -0.3% 5.40%
 NEA                13.75          12.84               0.24 -4.9% -0.5% 5.55%
 JNK                36.72          35.99               0.66 -0.2% -0.5% 5.58%
 VWITX                14.13          13.84               0.12 -1.2% -0.2% 0.00%
 PHMIX                  9.09             9.00               0.13 0.4% -0.1% 2.80%
 UTG                30.94          28.10               0.64 -7.1% 0.6% 4.20%
 XLU                52.65          50.30               0.42 -3.7% 1.0% 3.40%
 DUK                84.11          77.68               0.89 -6.6% 1.3% 4.52%
 EIX                63.24          64.12               0.54 2.3% 1.1% 3.57%
 PFF                38.07          37.29               0.72 -0.2% 0.3% 5.58%
 JPC                10.34             9.87               0.26 -2.0% -0.5% 4.60%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,273.96             18.75 -1.3% -1.0% 5.80%
 TIP              114.08        112.38               0.84 -0.8% -0.6% 2.38%
 SHY                83.85          83.26               0.32 -0.3% -0.1% 1.11%
 TLT              126.86        118.46               1.02 -5.8% -2.0% 2.59%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   -3.0% 0.0% 4.33%

You can see the pipeline MLPs (AMLP, EPD and ETP) had strong weeks (like my AMID).


Miscellaneous

While it was a busy week for me in my dividend portfolio, I was also pretty active here.  My two main buys were AXS and MAC.  AXS is an international property-casualty insurer. They are well-run and trade around $56 with a 2.5% yield.  To me, the interesting part is their price to book ratio, which is just 1.03.  When you look at peers:

  • AHL is in play and is at 1.08
  • XL is being bought and is at 1.44
  • VR is being bought and is at 1.53
  • AWH was bought last year at a bit over 1.50
  • ACGL is at 1.35
  • ENH was sold 15 months ago at 1.50.

AXS is way better than AHL, so they seem worth (to me) somewhere between 1.35 and 1.50.  Besides ACGL, they are one of the last sizable companies that could be bought.  I view not much downside and decent upside here.

The MAC buy was an add-on.  I already owned shares and doubled position at $57.  They yield 5.4% and seem likely to be in play (Starboard and Third Point have stakes and have nominated new directors).  Today the CEO announced he will retire at end of year... seems to set stage for new directors to put up a "for sale" sign.  Hopefully we get some interest, I have a fair number of Misc stocks awaiting catalysts that seem a long time coming (must be patient).

My surge in my Misc portfolio was driven by SSW.  I mentioned container rates for shipping going up and SSW is probably the biggest pure play container ship company.  They spiked about 15% this week as DB upgraded to a buy with a $13 PT (they are at $7.76).  ROSE (a small Delaware basin play) spiked 15% on higher oil prices.  WLFC was up another 3% (just keeps going up).  Then NMM, a dry bulk shipper with some exposure to the higher container rates, was up 6.5%.  It also helped that the BDI (a measure of spot rates for dry bulk shipping) was up sharply this week. NMM remains of of my holdings that I believe has the greatest upside (currently $1.81 and it was $2.50 at the start of 2018 - I believe it can get back to $2.50).

SLSDF was my big down Misc stock, off about 9%.  This is a stock that will either go bankrupt (as alternatives to their sand emerge) or they will get bought and more than double.  I will just hang around and see which it is, I have too much sunk cost to bail.

I also have a basket of gold/miner stocks in my Misc portfolio.  These were up over 3% on the week and have really been strong (although a bit volatile) of late:


 Miner   Start   Current   Change   2018 Change 
 TORXF            9.90          10.10 2.0% 6.3%
 SAND            4.48             4.66 4.0% -6.6%
 NSU            2.38             2.70 13.2% 10.5%
 KLDX            2.41             2.48 2.9% -5.0%
 KL          14.49          16.72 15.4% 8.9%
 GSS            0.87             0.73 -16.3% -18.5%
 FSM            4.24             5.93 39.9% 13.6%
 EXK            2.14             3.06 43.0% 28.0%
 BTG            2.61             2.84 8.8% -8.4%
 EGO            1.18             0.98 -16.9% -31.5%
 Total  9.6% -0.3%

So up 9.6% since I started in Dec 2017.  But down 0.3% in 2018.

Finally, OLBK closed this week with BYBK.  I have to hold for another month to lock in LT capital gains.  But OLBK (now showing up in my account) had a solid week.  In total my BYBK/OLBK (bought 4/27/17 and 5/22/17) is now a two bagger.  Just wish I had bought more!  Also wish my other small bank holdings (basket shown in dividend section, OFED and FUNC) would get some acquisition interest).  Stay tuned, in my view just a matter of time.

Have a great weekend everybody!