Saturday, February 06, 2016

Weekend Update 2/6/16

Weekend Update

What a crummy week. I frankly am in no mood to talk about stocks.  Just been such a struggle lately.  I know it is a marathon, not a sprint. I know I am still a net buyer of stocks, so drops in prices right now are technically good  for me. But there is something very depressing about seeing your net worth decrease.

The smartest thing I bought in the past two years was the most boring: NTC.  I guess the takeaway is that boring can be good. I will continue to stay the course. I am buying BAC warrants on the dips and on the dips after the dips.  I tell myself I will be happy in 2019 - but with less confidence than I felt two or three years ago.

MFI Select

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
Current 47.38%        181,081            133,703


I am showing this table first.  It is a bit of a puke table.  On 12/1 I was at $223,435 - now I am $181,081. That is a 19% drop in 2+ months.

5/6/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CBI  $50.38 $36.96 $0.14 -26.4% -10.2%
 PSDV  $4.12 $3.38 $0.00 -18.1% -10.2%
 TSRA  $38.94 $27.61 $0.60 -27.6% -10.2%
 KORS  $62.24 $51.84 $0.00 -16.7% -10.2%
 DEPO  $23.50 $16.14 $0.00 -31.3% -10.2%
 Totals  -24.0% -10.2%
8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $14.88 $0.00 -20.3% -10.8%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.48 $0.00 -9.2% -10.8%
 CSCO  $28.95 $22.89 $0.42 -19.5% -10.8%
 TGNA  $25.30 $23.02 $0.28 -7.9% -10.8%
 HSII  $20.14 $22.22 $0.26 11.6% -10.8%
 Totals  -9.0% -10.8%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $24.82               -   -27.0% -8.8%
 SAVE  $34.48 $42.43               -   23.1% -8.8%
 PPC  $18.98 $22.25               -   17.2% -8.8%
 VEC  $23.60 $18.05               -   -23.5% -8.8%
 VNCE  $3.99 $4.66               -   16.8% -8.8%
 Totals  1.3% -8.8%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $18.05               -   -8.1% -3.1%
 QCOM  $45.18 $44.02               -   -2.6% -3.1%
 PERI  $2.45 $2.20               -   -10.2% -3.1%
 DEPO  $15.34 $16.14               -   5.2% -3.1%
 TDC  $24.02 $23.54               -   -2.0% -3.1%
 Totals  -3.5% -3.1%

You can see my portfolio I started this week is stumbling out of the gate, down 3.5%. But I suppose I should feel lucky. The tracking portfolio I started over the weekend is down 3.6%.

MFI Formula

All I will say is that I am outperforming on a relative basis, but that does not make me happy.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,193
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,319
Current 1.17%          92,791              91,430

3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $34.98 $0.60 11.2% -10.3%
 GME  $37.69 $26.83 $1.08 -25.9% -10.3%
 KING  $15.85 $17.95 $0.00 13.2% -10.3%
 NSU  $3.43 $2.91 $0.12 -11.7% -10.3%
 PPC  $22.65 $22.25 $0.00 -1.8% -10.3%
 Totals  -3.0% -10.3%
7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $28.12 $1.71 -35.8% -10.3%
 CA  $29.34 $28.32 $0.50 -1.8% -10.3%
 MSFT  $44.42 $50.16 $0.67 14.4% -10.3%
 QCOM  $62.95 $44.02 $0.96 -28.5% -10.3%
 VIAB  $64.75 $43.24 $0.80 -32.0% -10.3%
 Totals  -16.7% -10.3%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $28.12 $1.48 -19.6% -3.8%
 IQNT  $21.96 $17.27 $0.15 -20.7% -3.8%
 QCOM  $53.45 $44.02 $0.48 -16.7% -3.8%
 CSCO  $26.37 $22.89 $0.42 -11.6% -3.8%
 CA  $27.30 $28.32 $0.25 4.7% -3.8%
 Totals  -12.8% -3.8%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $28.20 $0.00 -7.0% -9.0%
 GME  $28.34 $26.83 $0.00 -5.3% -9.0%
 IILG  $15.89 $11.46 $0.00 -27.9% -9.0%
 PPC  $22.22 $22.25 $0.00 0.2% -9.0%
 VIAB  $40.93 $43.24 $0.00 5.7% -9.0%
 Totals  -6.9% -9.0%

MFI Micro

Little to crow about here.

8/28/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VNCE  $8.50 $4.66 $0.00 -45.2% -6.2%
 ONE  $1.99 $3.36 $0.00 68.8% -6.2%
 TPUB  $11.60 $7.77 $0.18 -31.5% -6.2%
 LQDT  $7.26 $4.69 $0.00 -35.5% -6.2%
 PERI  $2.45 $2.20 $0.00 -10.2% -6.2%
 Totals  -10.7% -6.2%
12/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MGIC  $5.38 $5.43 $0.00 0.9% -8.7%
 BSQR  $6.00 $5.51 $0.00 -8.2% -8.7%
 SPCB  $4.52 $5.20 $0.00 15.0% -8.7%
 WLDN  $8.64 $7.90 $0.00 -8.6% -8.7%
 MNDO  $2.58 $2.30 $0.00 -10.9% -8.7%
 Totals               -   -2.3% -8.7%

TPUB suspended their dividend and LQDT had piss-poor earnings.

Dividend Stocks

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   Year End 2015 
 BAC-WTA  $5.20 $3.75 $0.00 -27.9% -27.5% -3.6%
 AOD  $7.65 $6.95 $1.19 6.3% 8.5% 15.3%
 JQC  $7.82 $7.47 $0.10 -3.1% -2.6% 0.9%
 CSQ  $9.04 $8.64 $1.50 12.1% 14.9% 27.3%
 NTC  $12.06 $12.89 $1.29 17.6% 17.0% 16.1%
 TGONF  $10.24 $9.10 $1.19 0.5% 1.5% 8.3%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $33.06 $0.00 55.7% 52.6% 72.9%
 O  $22.83 $55.89 $17.96 223.5% 223.1% 205.7%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.51 $2.16 52.0% 51.6% 51.9%
 SJT  $8.79 $4.66 $0.16 -45.1% -27.4% -51.6%
 REXI  $5.59 $4.54 $0.07 -17.6% -20.8% -2.8%
 Totals  -3.8% 0.5% 6.2%
Look at SJT.  Last week it was down "just" 27.4%. Now off 45%. That is falling off the proverbial table. You can see my hero, NTC.  Perhaps the tortoise, but seems to be winning the race.