Sunday, February 01, 2015

January 30th, 2015 Tracking Portfolio

New Tracking Portfolio

I have created my new tracking portfolio starting 1/30/15.  I have to say I am getting pretty good at this. Takes about 15 minutes to get a new one up and running. God bless cut & paste.  Here are the stocks that qualify as "dividend" stocks:

Stock Initial Price 52 week low  Mkt Cap  Yield
AWRE                4.88                 3.46           111 35.9%
BKE              50.79                41.45         2,457 7.2%
CA              30.30                25.25       13,281 3.3%
COH              37.19                32.72       10,250 3.6%
CSCO              26.37                21.27     133,565 2.9%
GME              35.25                31.69         3,853 3.7%
GORO                3.50                 2.70           190 3.4%
IQNT              16.82                10.06           557 2.7%
ITRN              20.75                19.53           435 4.7%
KING              13.20                10.68         4,245 3.5%
MSB              17.08                16.06           224 10.8%
MSFT              40.40                35.69     332,007 2.8%
NUS              40.98                38.12         2,430 3.4%
PDLI                7.29                 7.16         1,217 8.2%
PETS              15.70                12.07           318 5.4%
QCOM              62.46                62.39     103,309 2.6%
RGR              40.40                33.60           784 4.0%
RTN            100.05                89.17       30,925 2.4%
SPOK              17.12                12.93           371 2.9%


12 of these 19 would qualify for my "MFI Formula" approach.  QCOM is a new interesting one that I am going to buy tomorrow for my select portfolio.

There are 3 "new" stocks on the screen (new to my tracking portfolios over past year: ACHI, QCOM and TIVO.

Stock  Initial Price  52 week low  Mkt Cap  New
TIVO              10.46                10.27         1,103 1
QCOM              62.46                62.39     103,309 1
ACHI                5.85                 5.57           562 1

So QCOM is a "double", being on both lists.  I have never established that that is worth anything.


Saturday, January 31, 2015

Weekend Update - January 31st 2015

Weekend Update

Another week is done. Very, very busy for me personally. Not going to let up as am in Philadelphia Monday & Tuesday then NYC Wednesday and Thursday. After February 21st, things should get back to "normal".

My portfolio did not exactly have a stellar January.  Overall I was down 3.5% versus 2.7% for the Russell 3000. It is a longish list of stocks that didn't exactly have a great month:


  1. CBI was down 17.8%
  2. GNW was down 17.9%
  3. BAC-WTA down 15.5%
  4. RPXC down 10.4%
  5. IQNT down 14.3%
  6. KLAC down 12.6%
  7. SNDK down 22.5% (!!)
  8. TCMCF down 26.5%
  9. NADL down 12.3%
  10. VIAB down 14.4%
  11. FLR down 11.6%
  12. IPCM down 12.3%
Wow, I didn't realize the list of double digit losers in a single month was so long!  It is discouraging.  Though I still believe in many of these stocks and will possible add shares in next MFI tranche on Monday.

MFI Select

My MFI select portfolio continued it's struggles as well.  It was a bad month and you can see many of the reasons why above. KLAC, SNDK and RPXC are all part of my February 1st 2014 tranche which just hit one year anniversary and they didn't exactly finish with a flourish.


2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.90 $0.20 23.1% 12.9%
KLAC $61.47 $61.47 $18.40 29.9% 12.9%
RPXC $16.22 $12.35 $0.00 -23.9% 12.9%
SNDK $69.55 $75.91 $0.83 10.3% 12.9%
WNR $39.11 $37.13 $3.04 2.7% 12.9%
Totals 8.5% 12.9%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.78 $0.00 1.1% 7.4%
CA $29.54 $30.30 $0.75 5.1% 7.4%
CSCO $22.79 $26.37 $0.57 18.2% 7.4%
NSR $25.82 $26.29 $0.00 1.8% 7.4%
RCII $28.78 $34.28 $0.70 21.5% 7.4%
Totals 9.6% 7.4%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $26.37 $0.38 9.6% 2.8%
AGX $36.71 $30.41 $0.70 -15.3% 2.8%
ITRN $21.32 $20.75 $0.38 -0.9% 2.8%
BRCD $9.34 $11.12 $0.04 19.5% 2.8%
CBI $58.25 $34.51 $0.14 -40.5% 2.8%
Totals -5.5% 2.8%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $53.59 $0.21 -17.0% -1.4%
IPCM $38.45 $40.36 $0.00 5.0% -1.4%
VIAB $72.29 $64.42 $0.33 -10.4% -1.4%
NHTC $12.19 $12.00 $0.01 -1.5% -1.4%
AWRE $4.40 $4.88 $0.00 10.9% -1.4%
Totals -2.6% -1.4%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche -5.5% -2.6% 8.5% 9.6% 2.0%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 39.5%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7%            -               -   14.5%
MFI Overall Gain 52.4% 59.9% 93.3% 45.7% 62.8%
Current Balance      38,104       39,969     48,330      36,431    162,833
R3K Current Tranche 2.8% -1.4% 12.9% 7.4% 5.4%
R3K Overall Gain 50.0% 54.3% 36.8% 27.7% 42.2%
R3K Balance      37,504       38,580     34,189      31,927    142,201
Annualized IRR 18.7% 23.6% 39.1% 24.2% 25.7%


Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306
Current 20.63%      162,833
So lost 8 points on a relative basis versus the R3K and dropped in absolute value (assuming a $100K start in August 2012) from $174,306 to $162,833.  Not a good trend. Looking at the table, that was my worst month.

You can also see the 2/1/14 tranche is now "final". I will actually see the stocks on Monday for purposes of this tracking, I have locked down the prices.  You can see it "lost" 8.5% to 12.9%. The "good" thing about some of recent stocks selling off is I am finding quite a few stocks I am interested in buying for the new tranche.  I may still make a last second change, but here are the five stocks I think I will buy on Monday:

2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $27.84 $27.84 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
QCOM $62.46 $62.46 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
MNDO $3.42 $3.42 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
UIS $21.93 $21.93 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
VIAB $64.42 $64.42 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
Totals 0.0% 0.0%
I am still considering RPXC, GORO, FLR, CBI and ITRN as well.

MFI Formula

My two tranches in my MFI Formula portfolio are doing better than my select.  That is what would have been predicted.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $29.11 $0.11 24.2% 2.4%
BKE $45.55 $50.79 $3.22 18.6% 2.4%
CA $27.87 $30.30 $0.25 9.6% 2.4%
GME $41.70 $35.25 $0.33 -14.7% 2.4%
NUS $44.56 $40.98 $0.35 -7.3% 2.4%
Totals 6.1% 2.4%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $30.30 $0.00 -1.7% -3.8%
CSCO $28.36 $26.37 $0.19 -6.4% -3.8%
RGR $34.81 $40.40 $0.00 16.0% -3.8%
GME $34.21 $35.25 $0.00 3.0% -3.8%
IQNT $19.87 $16.82 $0.00 -15.3% -3.8%
Totals -0.9% -3.8%
Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment    249,820     249,939   250,000    250,000      999,759
Current Tranche 6.1% -0.9% 1.3%
Previous Tranche 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tranche -2 0.0%              -              -               -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 6.1% -0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%
Current Balance    265,037     247,770   250,000    250,000   1,012,806
R3K Current Tranche 2.4% -3.8% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4%
R3K Overall Gain 2.4% -3.8% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4%
R3K Balance    255,705     240,381   250,000    250,000      996,086
Annualized IRR 19.1% -9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7%

These tranches are always exciting.  Seems to be pretty volatile. We will see how they are faring in a couple years.

Well, I see we have another 8 to 12 inches of snow forecast for Sunday evening. Looks like I need to head out to Philly on Sunday.