Saturday, November 22, 2014

Weekend Update - 5 Days Until Turkey Day

Weekend Update

16 degrees out there as I type.  I actually went to our final High School football game of the year last night.  It was quite cold on those metal bleachers.

It was a better week for my stocks (finally).  My dividend portfolio continues to be a mess as NADL has been a disaster-investment so far.  But I did make some headway towards the psychological break-even point this past week and am now down 3.1% on the year.  GNW, GTAT and LMNS continue to be the albatrosses of 2014 for me.  It will be nice to get to 2015 with a clean slate.  Mistakes were made.

MFI Select Portfolio

As I mentioned briefly yesterday, my May and August tranches, which have both been pretty much laggards since the opening bell, have really made some headway against the benchmark.  One more good week and they could both go ahead.  Then my newest tranche, 11/15/14 that I started a week ago is off to a terrific start, almost +5% in week 1.

2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $21.17 $0.20 24.8% 15.8%
KLAC $61.47 $81.52 $1.90 35.7% 15.8%
RPXC $16.22 $13.25 $0.00 -18.3% 15.8%
SNDK $69.55 $100.83 $0.83 46.2% 15.8%
WNR $39.11 $43.87 $1.04 14.8% 15.8%
Totals 20.6% 15.8%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.80 $0.00 1.2% 10.1%
CA $29.54 $30.63 $0.75 6.2% 10.1%
CSCO $22.79 $26.88 $0.38 19.6% 10.1%
NSR $25.82 $27.25 $0.00 5.6% 10.1%
RCII $28.78 $32.72 $0.46 15.3% 10.1%
Totals 9.6% 10.1%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $26.88 $0.19 10.9% 5.5%
AGX $36.71 $33.07 $0.70 -8.0% 5.5%
ITRN $21.32 $21.25 $0.19 0.5% 5.5%
BRCD $9.34 $11.50 $0.04 23.6% 5.5%
CBI $58.25 $57.09 $0.07 -1.9% 5.5%
Totals 5.0% 5.5%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $69.24 $0.00 6.9% 1.1%
IPCM $38.45 $42.78 $0.00 11.3% 1.1%
VIAB $72.29 $73.71 $0.00 2.0% 1.1%
NHTC $12.19 $12.72 $0.00 4.3% 1.1%
AWRE $4.40 $4.40 $0.00 0.0% 1.1%
Totals 4.9% 1.1%


Looking at these results, they are so much better than my discretionary and dividend results - this is convincing me to be channeling more and more of my overall portfolio into MFI.  It has taken 8+ years, but I am really becoming convinced.

On a side note, as people may know I have a great data base of historical things MFI as I have been doing this blog thing since 2006 and have captured 50 stocks every month from the screens and tracked their performance.  I have done some work thinking about what characteristics do better (700M market cap and up and stocks that pay dividends); but at some point I do want to take that analysis to the next level.  I am taking some great courses on Coursera to learn the tools to dig deeper.  It may still be a few years of additional data gathering plus retirement, but I do plan on really digging in someday.

Here are some stats on how the MFI select portfolio has done versus the benchmark month by month.  You can see that November has been very strong.

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
Current 29.78%      175,590


MFI Simple Formula

This is my new MFI initiative started 9/30.  It was doing pretty solidly, but hit a speed bump yesterday with poor GME earnings.  We know many MFI stokcs have "hair" on them, so you have to think about the entire portfolio rather than individual stocks.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.04 $0.11 11.2% 5.0%
BKE $45.55 $50.55 $0.22 11.5% 5.0%
CA $27.87 $30.63 $0.25 10.8% 5.0%
GME $41.70 $37.86 $0.33 -8.4% 5.0%
NUS $44.56 $41.16 $0.35 -6.9% 5.0%
Totals 3.6% 5.0%


Definitely hurt by NUS and GME, both having poor earnings out of the chute.  Many months to go. BKE had good earnings.   The 5 stocks that didn't get picked by Mr Random are up 4.6%, so now fate has not been kind. But it is a marathon, not a sprint (KING is the best, up 29% since 9/30).

Dividend Portfolio

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,281         8.04          8.67               14,133.07 20.2% 26.5% -6.3%
CSQ          8,665         9.04        11.91               16,129.75 52.4% 50.8% 1.6%
KMF          2,000       34.07        37.93                              -   11.3% 10.7% 0.7%
NADL          9,572         9.11          3.48                 2,727.85 -58.7% 5.9% -64.5%
NTC          6,879       12.02        12.52                 3,842.42 8.8% 10.5% -1.7%
O              603       21.12        45.96                 9,791.02 194.6% 124.0% 70.6%
OIBAX          4,167         5.01          6.01                 8,445.49 60.5% 134.8% -74.3%
PBF          3,000       26.41        29.39                              -   11.3% 1.1% 10.2%
PGN        10,000         4.86          5.10                 1,250.00 7.5% 5.3% 2.2%
TCMCF          4,903       13.89        10.26                 1,991.00 -23.2% 3.4% -26.6%
TGONF          7,000       10.27        10.22                 4,537.50 5.8% 24.8% -19.0%
TNH              823    144.82      125.72                 3,019.94 -10.7% 6.5% -17.2%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                     65,868 6.3% 19.5% -13.2%
Closed 11.1% 10.5% 0.6%
Combined 10.4% 11.8% -1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 14.1%
2014 Gain -4.5%

Wow, I am stunned at how bad this is.  NADL is down 59%. TCMCF is down 23%. TNH is down 11%.  Pretty discouraging. I am not giving up, but I am not happy either.

Discretionary Portfolio

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AGX             190       36.71               33.07 -9.9% 5.0% -14.9%
BAC-WTA       12,000         6.05                 7.10 17.3% 17.0% 0.3%
EYES         3,000       20.65               21.14 2.4% 0.0% 2.4%
GNW       13,880       10.08                 9.56 -5.1% 27.6% -32.8%
HAL         2,000       49.07               50.63 3.2% 0.5% 2.7%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               33.08 55.8% 24.9% 30.8%
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 7.0% 14.6% -7.7%
Closed 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Combined 1.8% 2.3% -0.5%

While GNW continues to be the drag here, and the largest position, you will note I did add HAL and EYES this week.  probably not long term holds, though HAL seems very cheap.