Saturday, October 25, 2014

Weekend Update - Best Week In A While

Weekend Update

Well, I have to admit that it was very nice to have a solid up week. Two more weeks like this and I will be back in the black quite nicely.  GTAT was an expensive lesson.  But one must learn and move on.

I had quite a few stocks report earnings, RCII, CA, CBI, KLAC and SYNA to name a few. RCII and SYNA were poor and caused drops in the 10%+ range. KLAC was good and then CBI & CA were solid. Hard to win them all.  Actually DO had very good earnings (popped up 6% that day, but sadly I had sold them).

Traditional MFI Update

Having the SYNA sell-off really, really hurt the November 15th tranche.  Just had t o  m a k e  i t  a n o t h e r  t h r e e  w e e k s! Hopefully the market will decide it sold ff too sharply and I will get a little recovery:

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.82 $0.00 -2.3% 10.2%
ATVI $17.71 $19.17 $0.20 9.4% 10.2%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 10.2%
RPXC $17.04 $14.37 $0.00 -15.7% 10.2%
SYNA $48.01 $62.11 $0.00 29.4% 10.2%
Totals 11.0% 10.2%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $19.17 $0.20 13.1% 10.2%
KLAC $61.47 $75.90 $1.40 25.8% 10.2%
RPXC $16.22 $14.37 $0.00 -11.4% 10.2%
SNDK $69.55 $88.76 $0.53 28.4% 10.2%
WNR $39.11 $43.50 $0.78 13.2% 10.2%
Totals 13.8% 10.2%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $16.82 $0.00 -14.1% 4.9%
CA $29.54 $28.43 $0.50 -2.1% 4.9%
CSCO $22.79 $23.78 $0.38 6.0% 4.9%
NSR $25.82 $25.19 $0.00 -2.4% 4.9%
RCII $28.78 $29.29 $0.46 3.4% 4.9%
Totals -1.8% 4.9%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $23.78 $0.19 -1.8% 0.4%
AGX $36.71 $31.95 $0.70 -11.1% 0.4%
ITRN $21.32 $20.58 $0.19 -2.6% 0.4%
BRCD $9.34 $9.95 $0.04 7.0% 0.4%
CBI $58.25 $53.68 $0.07 -7.7% 0.4%
Totals -3.2% 0.4%


So one can see that in aggregate my open positions are losing.

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche -3.2% 11.0% 13.8% -1.8% 5.0%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.3%
Tranche -2 14.1%              -              -               -   3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 56.1% 59.5% 102.9% 30.6% 62.3%
Current Balance      39,022       39,886     50,714      32,646    162,268
R3K Current Tranche 0.4% 10.2% 10.2% 4.9% 6.4%
R3K Overall Gain 46.4% 50.6% 33.5% 24.7% 38.8%
R3K Balance      36,604       37,648     33,375      31,164    138,791
Annualized IRR 22.5% 27.2% 50.5% 19.9% 30.3%

I am up 5% and R3K is up 6.4%.  This is not exactly earth-shattering news.  My open tracking portfolios are up 2.1% versus 4.0% for R3K, so there are some real parallels. Of course one always wants to do better.  There is still time & hope.

MFI Large Dividend Approach

This is of course my new approach that is a subset of the classic MFI approach.  I just started in at the end of September, so early days.  But it is certainly hanging in there while the wheels have fallen off many other things.  It is certainly the "hold your nose" approach.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $25.72 $0.00 9.3% -0.1%
BKE $45.55 $47.37 $0.22 4.5% -0.1%
CA $27.87 $28.43 $0.00 2.0% -0.1%
GME $41.70 $42.03 $0.00 0.8% -0.1%
NUS $44.56 $49.21 $0.00 10.4% -0.1%
Totals 5.4% -0.1%


Actually, up 5.4% is pretty darned tooting impressive.  But a long way to go.

Dividend Stocks

At the middle of last week when the sky was falling I did buy KMF and added to CCUR, TNH and CSQ. So far, a good move, though I should have also bought back BBEP in the 13s.  Unfortunately NADL, TCMCF & EXETF have really been albatrosses.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,281         8.04          8.44               13,326.21 16.6% 20.4% -3.7%
CCUR          9,400         7.20          7.35                              -   2.1% 2.3% -0.2%
CSQ          8,665         9.04        11.55               15,421.60 47.5% 43.5% 4.0%
EXETF          6,000         7.82          7.23                     240.00 -7.0% -2.7% -4.3%
KMF          2,000       34.07        38.03                              -   11.6% 5.3% 6.3%
NADL          9,572         9.11          5.85                 2,727.85 -32.7% 0.7% -33.4%
NTC          6,847       12.02        12.53                 3,450.33 8.5% 5.2% 3.2%
O              603       21.12        44.97                 9,680.62 189.0% 113.1% 75.9%
OIBAX          4,167         5.01          6.03                 8,381.18 60.5% 123.4% -62.9%
TCMCF          4,903       13.89        10.60                              -   -23.7% -1.6% -22.0%
TGONF          7,000       10.27        10.59                 3,452.50 7.9% 18.8% -10.9%
TNH              823    144.82      141.66                 1,555.00 -0.9% 1.4% -2.3%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                     58,235 7.9% 14.4% -6.5%
Closed 11.9% 10.5% 1.4%
Combined 11.3% 11.1% 0.2%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 15.1%
2014 Gain -1.4%

Discretionary Picks

I did buy VEC this week.  It is off to a most excellent start.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AGX             190       36.71               31.95 -13.0% -0.1% -12.9%
BAC-WTA       12,000         6.05                 7.16 18.3% 11.3% 7.0%
GNW       13,880       10.08               13.38 32.8% 21.5% 11.3%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               29.13 37.2% 18.9% 18.3%
VEC         7,000       20.19               21.83 8.1% 3.1% 5.0%
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 20.9% 12.4% 8.5%
Closed 0.8% 1.4% -0.6%
Combined 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Again, the GTAT bankruptcy really ruined a nice party here.

I think that is enough for now.  Take care! Have a great weekend.