Monday, October 20, 2014

20 Trading Days on November 15 MFI Tranche

Only twenty days left in my November 15th 2013 MFI tranche. It has been a winner, up 14%. I am starting to think hard about what five stocks to go with in replacement.

First, if I want to go with larger cap stocks that pay a dividend:


  1. VIAB
  2. BRCD
  3. FLR
  4. IILG
  5. NOC 
These are at the top of my list. I'd include RTN, HRB and DLX as other possibilities. 

If I also want to consider other stocks I think are attractive (along with some names in healthcare space):

ENSG
ANIK
ITRN
SLI
RPXC and
MD

So that is a list of 14 stocks of which I need five. A bunch of these will announce earnings in the interim, so that could easily change my opinion none other name I should toss in there is UIS. This is a stock I have owned several times in the past, they are extremely volatile around earnings. I have found that if you can buy them under $20, you have a chance to do pretty well. They are $19.07 right now and announce earnings tomorrow. Tres exciting. 

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Weekend Update - Post Sell Off?

Weekend Update

Another crazy week, market way down, but then a nice rebound.  One item I commented on mid-week was that the Russell 2000 was moving up on a day everything else went down.  That seems to be translating to better MFI figures.  In my tracking portfolios, at the end of September, all 11 open portfolios were trailing the R3K.  Now just 8 of 12 are trailing (by 1.6 points on average).  I suppose having ESI up 119% since 9/27 helps too.

My MFI

SNDK disappointed with earnings.  I am continuing to struggle:

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.38 $0.00 -4.9% 5.9%
ATVI $17.71 $18.85 $0.20 7.6% 5.9%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 5.9%
RPXC $17.04 $14.50 $0.00 -14.9% 5.9%
SYNA $48.01 $71.00 $0.00 47.9% 5.9%
Totals 14.0% 5.9%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $18.85 $0.20 11.2% 5.9%
KLAC $61.47 $68.44 $1.40 13.6% 5.9%
RPXC $16.22 $14.50 $0.00 -10.6% 5.9%
SNDK $69.55 $82.80 $0.53 19.8% 5.9%
WNR $39.11 $41.16 $0.78 7.2% 5.9%
Totals 8.3% 5.9%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $16.38 $0.00 -16.3% 0.7%
CA $29.54 $26.35 $0.50 -9.1% 0.7%
CSCO $22.79 $23.25 $0.38 3.7% 0.7%
NSR $25.82 $25.09 $0.00 -2.8% 0.7%
RCII $28.78 $31.57 $0.46 11.3% 0.7%
Totals -2.6% 0.7%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $23.25 $0.19 -3.9% -3.6%
AGX $36.71 $31.02 $0.00 -15.5% -3.6%
ITRN $21.32 $21.24 $0.19 0.5% -3.6%
BRCD $9.34 $9.50 $0.04 2.1% -3.6%
CBI $58.25 $48.08 $0.07 -17.3% -3.6%
Totals -6.8% -3.6%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche -6.8% 14.0% 8.3% -2.6% 2.8%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.5%
Tranche -2 14.1%              -              -               -   3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 50.3% 63.8% 93.0% 29.5% 59.1%
Current Balance      37,574       40,959     48,241      32,374    159,148
R3K Current Tranche -3.6% 5.9% 5.9% 0.7% 2.2%
R3K Overall Gain 40.6% 44.7% 28.3% 19.8% 33.4%
R3K Balance      35,160       36,182     32,069      29,940    133,350
Annualized IRR 20.6% 29.2% 46.8% 19.5% 29.0%

My 4 open tranches are up an average of 2.8% versus 2.2% for R3K.  So winning, but feels like slipping away a bit.

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
Current 25.80%      159,148
You can certainly see the slipping since 10/1 as my lead has dwindled from 29.38% to 25.8%.

Big Dividend MFI

Bad news - losing money. Good news - beating index.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $25.33 $0.00 7.7% -4.1%
BKE $45.55 $45.48 $0.22 0.3% -4.1%
CA $27.87 $26.35 $0.00 -5.5% -4.1%
GME $41.70 $39.86 $0.00 -4.4% -4.1%
NUS $44.56 $43.60 $0.00 -2.2% -4.1%
Totals -0.8% -4.1%
Dividends

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,281         8.04          8.03               12,519.36 10.8% 15.6% -4.8%
CCUR          9,400         7.20          7.13                              -   -1.0% -1.8% 0.8%
CSQ          8,665         9.04        10.95               15,421.60 40.9% 37.8% 3.1%
EXETF          6,000         7.82          7.10                     240.00 -8.7% -6.6% -2.1%
KMF          2,000       34.07        37.63                              -   10.4% 1.1% 9.3%
NADL          9,572         9.11          5.73                 2,727.85 -34.0% -3.2% -30.7%
NTC          6,847       12.02        12.54                 3,450.33 8.5% 1.1% 7.5%
O              603       21.12        43.54                 9,680.62 182.2% 104.7% 77.5%
OIBAX          4,167         5.01          6.02                 8,381.18 60.3% 114.6% -54.2%
TCMCF          4,903       13.89          9.90                              -   -28.7% -5.5% -23.2%
TGONF          7,000       10.27        10.45                 3,452.50 6.5% 14.1% -7.5%
TNH              823    144.82      139.00                 1,555.00 -2.7% -2.6% -0.1%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                     57,428 5.0% 9.8% -4.8%
Closed 11.9% 10.5% 1.4%
Combined 10.9% 10.4% 0.5%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 14.6%
2014 Gain -3.4%

 Stock   Shares   Ann Dividend / Share   Yield   Projected Dividend   Worth 
 AOD         14,281         0.68 8.4%                       9,682        114,674
 CCUR           9,400         0.48 6.7%                       4,512           67,022
 CSQ           8,665         1.00 9.1%                       8,665           94,886
 EXETF           6,000         0.48 6.8%                       2,880           42,606
 KMF           2,000         1.95 5.2%                       3,900           75,250
 NADL           9,572         0.96 16.8%                       9,190           54,850
 NTC           6,847         0.68 5.5%                       4,684           85,867
 O               603         2.17 5.0%                       1,308           26,251
 OIBAX           4,167         0.29 4.8%                       1,208           25,086
 TCMCF           4,903         1.60 16.2%                       7,845           48,540
 TGONF           7,000         0.62 5.9%                       4,340           73,150
 TNH               823       12.04 8.7%                       9,909        114,397
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
 Total  8.3%                     68,123        822,579