Gigm Tanks

I sometimes think I am that guy running through the TNT factory with a lit match. All-in-all, I had a super 2009, up about 72% for MFI and 48% overall, but it seems that the second half of the year I made some bad decisions. Even in the first half, I sold some stocks too early. I know it is mental, after you have a year where you lose over 40%, you tend to be gun shy when it is real money and retirement funds you're talking about.

GIGM was my latest fiasco. I think I mentioned last week that I added some post their announced selling of part of their software. It may still ultimately be the right move, but I could have certainly waited a week and done it cheaper as they must be down 20 to 25%. They finally posted their past 2 quarters of earnings and they were sub-par (UPDATE - GigaMedia posts Q3 loss, sees fall in Q4 Asian rev).

Then I also sold my CSKW a few days early as I thought I was headed out for the rest of the year and I wanted to do it before 1/1 for tax reasons. Then they pop 12% today... sigh. I'd be better off not looking.

Still a decent day and year. I did add a new stock (CYTK) and they went up 10% today, so it is not all bad :).

So here are my current holdings (may be my last post of the year):

QXM	39%
KHD	44%
UEPS	57%
WILC	147%
AIRV	25%
CBI	45%
CMFO	56%
BR	38%
UTA	31%
PFE	34%
AMED	29%
HCKT	20%
CBPO	23%
FRX	40%
ENDP	20%
LIWA	9%
RTN	16%
BIOC	12%
IDCC	11%
BKE	17%
QKLS	12%
WTW	12%
PRIM	12%
JTX	4%
CYTK	10%
CEU	7%
AGX	6%
TSRA	5%
KSW	0%
ESI	0%
PVSW	-1%
RGR	-3%
CF	-3%
GTLS	-11%
JCOM	-16%
QCOR	-20%
WH	-11%
GIGM	-36%
CHCG	-52%

And here is how my "mechanical" stocks have fared:

Still Own	1
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Price	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AGX	10/22/2009	$12.31	$13.08	6.2%	2.8%	3.4%
AMED	9/8/2009	$35.86	$46.21	28.9%	9.3%	19.5%
BIOC	7/30/2009	$3.70	$4.14	11.9%	14.6%	-2.7%
BKE	8/17/2009	$26.66	$29.29	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%
BR	7/30/2009	$16.53	$22.73	38.4%	14.6%	23.7%
CBI	7/30/2009	$13.62	$19.81	45.4%	14.6%	30.8%
CBPO	12/4/2009	$9.15	$11.30	23.5%	1.8%	21.7%
CEU	8/26/2009	$5.40	$5.85	8.3%	9.2%	-0.8%
CMFO	10/30/2009	$4.30	$6.74	56.7%	8.9%	47.8%
ESI	11/3/2009	$93.61	$93.55	-0.1%	7.9%	-8.0%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$32.30	39.8%	20.3%	19.5%
GIGM	7/27/2009	$5.02	$3.23	-35.7%	15.1%	-50.7%
GTLS	8/27/2009	$19.50	$17.29	-11.3%	9.1%	-20.4%
HCKT	5/7/2009	$2.30	$2.75	19.6%	25.9%	-6.3%
IDCC	11/17/2009	$23.62	$26.24	11.1%	1.4%	9.6%
JCOM	9/30/2009	$23.00	$19.42	-15.6%	6.1%	-21.7%
JTX	6/29/2009	$5.55	$5.71	2.9%	22.5%	-19.6%
	6/30/2009	$5.41	$5.71	5.6%	23.2%	-17.6%
PFE	6/9/2009	$14.13	$18.61	34.0%	20.3%	13.6%
PRIM	9/30/2009	$7.30	$8.21	12.5%	6.1%	6.4%
PVSW	8/18/2009	$4.96	$4.90	-1.2%	13.5%	-14.7%
QKLS	11/20/2009	$5.75	$6.42	11.7%	3.3%	8.3%
RGR	10/30/2009	$10.59	$10.18	-3.0%	8.9%	-11.9%
RTN	7/27/2009	$45.61	$52.55	15.9%	15.1%	0.8%
UTA	5/29/2009	$7.90	$10.35	31.0%	23.4%	7.6%
WTW	9/21/2009	$26.00	$28.87	11.7%	4.8%	6.9%
CYTK	12/21/2009	$2.59	$2.85	10.0%	0.5%	9.5%
Average				13.9%	11.8%	2.1%
Still Own	0
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Sold	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AHCI	1/5/2009	$1.11	$1.73	55.9%	0.2%	55.7%
CKSW	1/5/2009	$1.99	$5.52	177.4%	23.0%	######
DBTK	3/16/2009	$6.70	$7.05	5.2%	14.7%	-9.5%
DELL	2/23/2009	$8.55	$9.52	11.3%	6.5%	4.9%
	2/27/2009	$8.66	$9.52	10.0%	7.4%	2.5%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$29.08	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%
GME	6/22/2009	$22.64	$25.76	13.8%	24.5%	-10.7%
	6/23/2009	$20.63	$22.65	9.8%	16.5%	-6.7%
PFE	6/5/2009	$14.46	$16.27	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%
RST	5/7/2009	$58.50	$54.00	-15.3%	0.4%	-15.7%
SEPR	8/17/2009	$17.86	$23.09	29.3%	1.4%	27.9%
SOLR	2/23/2009	$4.70	$8.09	72.1%	6.5%	65.7%
UTA	6/23/2009	$8.37	$10.90	30.2%	2.7%	27.5%
VM	6/5/2009	$4.38	$5.18	18.3%	4.5%	13.8%
	6/23/2009	$3.11	$4.33	39.2%	2.7%	36.5%
	6/6/2009	$4.23	$5.18	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%
Average				32.4%	8.6%	23.8%
Open and Closed				20.8%	10.7%	10.0%

Mini Comeback?

Well, you know what they say about "the best laid plans"! I got stuck in Bermuda yesterday due to that nasty weather going up the US Seaboard. Won't get to leave until Wednesday as the planes are still pretty backed up.

I have mentioned several times that I like to use my monthly tacking portfolios as a barometer on MFI in general. This is because MFI has proved to be very streaky. It was starting to look like the streak was ending as about a month ago some of the more recent monthly portfolios were starting to lag the benchmark. But they're all ahead again. The most recent 20 months are all leading. I do think the uptick of M&A helped.

No news stocks added to my mechanical portfolios this weekend. The list is becoming relatively static again.

Thought I'd take a look at the performance of bio-tech stocks in my mechanical portfolio. They have outperformed the overall by a bit. Here are the numbers and the individual stocks:

	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
Biotech	36.1%	16.0%	20.2%
Totals Top 30	23.7%	5.4%	18.4%
Totals Top 50	19.7%	1.0%	18.8%

Symbol	Date	Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
OMPI	3/12/08	9.55	4.05	-	131.36	2.08	-57.6%	-46.0%	-11.6%
SCMP	8/31/08	9.50	5.92	-	128.79	2.49	-37.7%	-17.8%	-19.9%
ERES	11/15/08	4.65	6.25	-	86.62	2.31	34.4%	29.2%	5.2%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.54	-	87.93	2.31	-4.5%	28.9%	-33.4%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.30	-	87.16	1.59	220.4%	28.3%	192.1%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	5.30	-	77.42	1.59	-2.0%	44.4%	-46.4%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	4.75	-	68.92	1.59	236.9%	62.2%	174.7%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	24.28	-	68.92	1.59	43.9%	62.2%	-18.3%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.29	-	87.08	1.03	7.9%	27.7%	-19.8%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	5.18	-	95.08	1.03	99.2%	17.0%	82.2%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.09	-	98.81	0.51	-20.6%	12.1%	-32.6%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	9.8%	17.1%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	2.64	-	102.96	0.51	-13.2%	7.5%	-20.7%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	6.40	-	107.13	-	100.0%	2.9%	97.1%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.11	-	107.13	-	-13.9%	2.9%	-16.7%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	6.97	-	109.57	-	5.1%	0.6%	4.5%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.64	-	111.01	-	-11.0%	-0.7%	-10.3%

Feliz Navidad

Last post until end of December as I go off line tomorrow. Did get some good news today (unexpectedly) with AIRV. They are being bought out, which caused them to pop 20% today (SAC Capital, Blackstone lead $530M deal for Airvana). In the grand scheme of buyouts, the premium wasn't that high. There is already a lawyer prowling to build a class action suit (Law Office of Brodsky & Smith, LLC Announces Investigation of Airvana, Inc.).

I'll certainly hold my shares into the new year to put off capital gain taxes until early 2011. I also think there is a chance for the amount to increase. So two of my stocks (GIGM and AIRV) went through M&A activity near the end of December. I think that bodes well for the MFI portfolio as they are often very good value stocks.

I did buy CF today and I sold CSKI (I know the sale of CSKI was premature, but I get so antsy with them as one day they're $19 and the next day $12.). As mentioned earlier, I'll sell CKSW in a couple weeks as it ironically makes sense for me to sell them before the one year anniversary (I bought them 1/3/09) as loyal readers may recall, I briefly sold my shares in July, so I already have a capital gain. They are down since then (and I don't blame shyster), so I have a loss which I'd like to realize in 2009.

Not much else to add. It was a very good year (I think my MFI is up about 70% right now for the year and I did briefly touch break-even). Hopefully in 2010 I'll hit the green and more of my stocks will be bought out.

Feliz Navidad!

Here is my top 50 mechanical portfolio, note the 100% increase already in SNTA:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
ITWO	12/27/08	5.61	19.01	-	87.16	1.59	238.9%	28.3%	210.6%
JOYG	12/27/08	21.95	51.82	-	87.16	1.59	136.1%	28.3%	107.8%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.30	-	87.16	1.59	220.4%	28.3%	192.1%
CTGX	1/3/09	3.18	7.22	-	92.96	1.59	127.0%	20.3%	106.8%
PMD	1/3/09	6.44	5.30	0.58	92.96	1.59	-8.7%	20.3%	-29.0%
HPY	1/24/09	8.54	13.47	0.06	83.11	1.59	58.4%	34.5%	23.9%
HLIT	1/31/09	5.15	5.82	-	82.83	1.59	13.0%	35.0%	-22.0%
HGT	1/31/09	13.06	16.78	0.59	82.83	1.59	33.0%	35.0%	-2.0%
CNU	2/8/09	1.96	3.92	-	86.98	1.59	100.0%	28.5%	71.5%
SJT	2/8/09	19.05	17.95	0.49	86.98	1.59	-3.2%	28.5%	-31.7%
SGU	2/8/09	2.55	3.90	0.27	86.98	1.59	63.6%	28.5%	35.1%
TC	2/8/09	4.33	10.59	-	86.98	1.59	144.6%	28.5%	116.0%
bioc	2/14/09	3.72	4.00	-	82.76	1.59	7.5%	35.1%	-27.6%
FORR	2/14/09	17.56	25.30	-	82.76	1.59	44.1%	35.1%	9.0%
ZYXI.OB	2/14/09	1.20	1.13	-	82.76	1.59	-5.8%	35.1%	-40.9%
FRD	2/21/09	4.95	5.45	0.09	77.42	1.59	11.9%	44.4%	-32.5%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	5.69	-	77.42	1.59	34.8%	44.4%	-9.6%
MTXX	2/21/09	17.90	4.00	-	77.42	1.59	-77.7%	44.4%	-122.1%
TYPE	2/21/09	3.02	8.87	-	77.42	1.59	193.7%	44.4%	149.3%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	5.30	-	77.42	1.59	-2.0%	44.4%	-46.4%
PDO	2/21/09	3.19	4.77	-	77.42	1.59	49.5%	44.4%	5.1%
SAPE	2/21/09	3.38	8.25	-	77.42	1.59	144.1%	44.4%	99.7%
VDSI	2/21/09	5.25	6.09	-	77.42	1.59	16.0%	44.4%	-28.4%
IGTE	2/21/09	2.99	9.96	0.11	77.42	1.59	236.8%	44.4%	192.4%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	91.53	-	73.93	1.59	121.8%	51.2%	70.6%
KTII	2/28/09	55.48	104.87	-	73.93	1.59	89.0%	51.2%	37.8%
INT	2/28/09	29.01	51.58	-	73.93	1.59	77.8%	51.2%	26.6%
ICAD	2/28/09	0.90	1.55	-	77.42	1.59	72.2%	44.4%	27.8%
EXBD	3/6/09	12.96	21.95	-	68.92	1.59	69.4%	62.2%	7.2%
DISH	3/6/09	9.27	20.96	-	68.92	1.59	126.1%	62.2%	63.9%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	4.75	-	68.92	1.59	236.9%	62.2%	174.7%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	24.28	-	68.92	1.59	43.9%	62.2%	-18.3%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.29	-	87.08	1.03	7.9%	27.7%	-19.8%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	6.10	-	87.89	1.03	53.3%	26.6%	26.7%
TWX	5/1/09	22.84	29.45	2.72	87.89	1.03	40.8%	26.6%	14.3%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	16.84	-	87.89	1.03	-43.5%	26.6%	-70.1%
ulcm	5/1/09	8.72	10.39	-	87.89	1.03	19.2%	26.6%	-7.4%
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	6.70	-	88.71	1.03	96.5%	25.4%	71.1%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	45.26	-	92.53	1.03	48.7%	20.2%	28.5%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	10.14	-	92.53	1.03	28.4%	20.2%	8.1%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	18.30	0.32	94.55	1.03	28.3%	17.6%	10.7%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	5.50	-	94.55	1.03	20.9%	17.6%	3.2%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	5.18	-	95.08	1.03	99.2%	17.0%	82.2%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	14.83	-	92.04	0.51	-11.4%	20.3%	-31.7%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	22.48	-	92.04	0.51	-2.0%	20.3%	-22.3%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	29.62	-	87.96	0.51	25.0%	25.9%	-0.8%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	52.45	0.31	98.06	0.51	16.2%	12.9%	3.3%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	7.01	-	98.81	0.51	7.2%	12.1%	-4.9%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	19.00	-	98.81	0.51	36.2%	12.1%	24.2%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	30.94	-	98.81	0.51	6.3%	12.1%	-5.8%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	37.74	-	98.81	0.51	-7.9%	12.1%	-20.0%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.09	-	98.81	0.51	-20.6%	12.1%	-32.6%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	7.06	-	98.81	0.51	66.9%	12.1%	54.9%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	12.80	-	98.81	0.51	3.6%	12.1%	-8.4%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.49	-	98.81	0.51	-12.8%	12.1%	-24.8%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	33.72	-	98.81	0.51	37.4%	12.1%	25.3%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	10.12	-	98.81	0.51	-11.6%	12.1%	-23.7%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	8.07	-	100.79	0.51	16.1%	9.8%	6.3%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	9.8%	17.1%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	5.75	-	102.96	0.51	12.7%	7.5%	5.2%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	2.64	-	102.96	0.51	-13.2%	7.5%	-20.7%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	7.31	-	102.96	0.51	60.7%	7.5%	53.1%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.22	-	102.60	0.51	24.0%	7.9%	16.1%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	28.30	-	104.77	0.51	8.8%	5.7%	3.2%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	4.00	-	106.72	0.51	7.5%	3.7%	3.8%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	90.67	-	103.56	-	0.4%	6.4%	-6.1%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	30.56	-	103.56	-	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	58.40	-	107.13	-	4.3%	2.9%	1.4%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	18.91	-	107.13	-	7.4%	2.9%	4.6%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	6.40	-	107.13	-	100.0%	2.9%	97.1%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.11	-	107.13	-	-13.9%	2.9%	-16.7%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	7.53	-	109.62	-	8.3%	0.5%	7.8%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	25.29	-	109.43	-	7.3%	0.7%	6.6%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	6.97	-	109.57	-	5.1%	0.6%	4.5%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	10.52	-	111.01	-	16.1%	-0.7%	16.8%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.64	-	111.01	-	-11.0%	-0.7%	-10.3%
DYAI.PK	12/11/09	1.90	1.80	-	111.11	-	-5.3%	-0.8%	-4.5%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	20.2%	1.0%	19.3%
54.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	7.8%	-10.8%	18.6%
S&P C			110.21			Open	44.4%	23.8%	20.6%

All In?

Interesting news on GIGM today (GigaMedia: Strategic Alliance with European Leader by Sale of 60% of Software Unit). Their software unit is primarily a platform for online poker. It may be time for the courageous to go all in on GIGM (despite the paucity of earnings releases of late). Here is the simplistic way I think about it:

1. they sold the 60% share for $100m plus any gain in value over the next two years.
2. That would imply as a floor the value of the software unit is $165m.
3. I am not sure how the fair value will be calculated, but they'll be rolling the poker platform as part of a already branded gambling name and will have access to additional large markets such as France. I have to think that partnership is worth another 20%.
4. That gets you to a nice round $200m value for the software unit.
5. They have $1.80 (97m) in cash already.
6. They will still have the Asian gaming unit, which contrubuted about 1/3 of their recent EBITDA and is the faster growing component. I gotta figure of their current $4 share price, that has to be worth a $1 at the very least.
7. So you have the software piece, worth $200m or $4 a share, + cash and Asian gaming unit getting you to a conservative $6 a share.

Given they're at $4 right now, it seems a pretty good deal. Anyone from the peanut gallery have anything to add (besides the obvious it would be nice to see their most recent quarterly earnings)?

Top 30 Update

Good news in the M&A space. Exxon is paying $31b for XTO (which I own outside of MFI). Great news for the market and perhaps a pre-cursor to 2010. If M&A stays toasty, our stocks should do well.

My top 30 portfolio is still doing well. Some of the recent additions have really outperformed quickly: ARO, SNTA, CMFO, MHP, CNU and others.

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
MSO	12/27/08	2.80	5.14	-	87.16	1.59	83.6%	30.2%	53.4%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.30	-	87.16	1.59	220.4%	30.2%	190.2%
WFR	12/27/08	13.43	12.52	-	87.16	1.59	-6.8%	30.2%	-36.9%
AHCI	1/3/09	1.15	2.90	-	92.96	1.59	152.2%	22.0%	130.1%
CKSW	1/3/09	1.99	5.61	-	92.96	1.59	181.9%	22.0%	159.9%
COH	2/14/09	13.97	36.85	-	82.76	1.59	163.8%	37.1%	126.7%
DELL	2/21/09	8.41	13.18	-	77.42	1.59	56.7%	46.5%	10.2%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	5.51	-	77.42	1.59	30.6%	46.5%	-16.0%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	100.27	-	73.93	1.59	143.0%	53.5%	89.5%
FWLT	2/28/09	15.04	28.50	-	73.93	1.59	89.5%	53.5%	36.0%
HCKT	2/28/09	2.56	2.75	-	73.93	1.59	7.4%	53.5%	-46.0%
MWW	2/28/09	6.59	17.08	-	73.93	1.59	159.2%	53.5%	105.7%
PTIE	2/28/09	4.53	5.40	-	73.93	1.59	19.2%	53.5%	-34.3%
TRLG	2/28/09	10.22	19.28	-	73.93	1.59	88.6%	53.5%	35.2%
qlti	3/6/09	1.41	4.70	-	68.92	1.59	233.3%	64.6%	168.7%
exbd	3/6/09	12.96	21.70	0.44	68.92	1.59	70.8%	64.6%	6.2%
FIX	3/13/09	9.73	12.41		76.09	1.59	27.5%	49.1%	-21.6%
DBTK	3/13/09	6.65	9.96	-	76.09	1.59	49.8%	49.1%	0.7%
LOOP	3/13/09	5.77	10.31	-	76.09	1.59	78.7%	49.1%	29.6%
PRO	3/27/09	4.29	9.02	-	81.61	1.03	110.3%	38.3%	71.9%
ACN	4/9/09	27.71	41.96	-	85.81	1.03	51.4%	31.6%	19.9%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.16	-	87.08	1.03	5.7%	29.6%	-24.0%
TSRA	5/1/09	14.52	25.82	-	87.89	1.03	77.8%	28.5%	49.4%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	16.77	-	87.89	1.03	-43.8%	28.5%	-72.2%
ulcm	5/1/09	8.72	9.30	-	87.89	1.03	6.7%	28.5%	-21.8%
TYPE	5/1/09	3.80	8.57	-	87.89	1.03	125.5%	28.5%	97.1%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	6.73	-	87.89	1.03	69.1%	28.5%	40.6%
INT	5/8/09	41.90	52.18	-	92.98	1.03	24.5%	21.4%	3.1%
IPHS	5/15/09	15.03	23.28	-	88.71	1.03	54.9%	27.3%	27.6%
GNI	5/29/09	86.75	90.75	1.80	92.53	1.03	6.7%	22.0%	-15.3%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	9.69	-	92.53	1.03	22.7%	22.0%	0.6%
FRX	6/5/09	23.66	31.69	-	94.55	1.03	33.9%	19.4%	14.5%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	5.21	-	95.08	1.03	100.4%	18.7%	81.6%
VM	6/11/09	4.24	5.50	-	95.08	1.03	29.7%	18.7%	11.0%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	17.58	-	92.04	0.51	5.0%	22.1%	-17.1%
MTXX	7/2/09	5.77	4.24	-	91.84	0.51	-26.5%	22.4%	-48.9%
JTX	7/2/09	5.74	5.02	-	91.84	0.51	-12.5%	22.4%	-34.9%
GIGM	7/24/09	4.98	3.67	-	98.06	0.51	-26.3%	14.6%	-40.9%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	18.75	-	98.81	0.51	34.4%	13.7%	20.7%
BR	7/31/09	17.27	22.71	-	98.81	0.51	31.5%	13.7%	17.8%
LO	7/31/09	73.72	78.70	-	98.81	0.51	6.8%	13.7%	-7.0%
ITWO	8/7/09	14.36	18.50	-	101.20	0.51	28.8%	11.0%	17.8%
BKE	8/14/09	26.54	28.79	2.00	100.79	0.51	16.0%	11.5%	4.5%
GTLS	8/14/09	20.73	18.51	-	100.79	0.51	-10.7%	11.5%	-22.2%
PRIM	8/14/09	6.95	8.21	-	100.79	0.51	18.1%	11.5%	6.6%
SEPR	8/14/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%
PVSW	8/14/09	5.00	4.82	-	100.79	0.51	-3.6%	11.5%	-15.1%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	6.15	-	102.96	0.51	20.6%	9.1%	11.4%
cytk	8/28/09	3.04	3.06	-	103.38	0.51	0.7%	8.7%	-8.0%
jcom	8/28/09	22.14	19.81	-	103.38	0.51	-10.5%	8.7%	-19.2%
AMED	9/4/09	35.00	44.43	-	102.06	0.51	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	3.90	-	106.72	0.51	4.8%	5.3%	-0.5%
MHP	9/25/09	23.67	34.57	-	104.45	-	46.0%	7.1%	38.9%
AGX	10/16/09	12.50	12.10	-	108.89	-	-3.2%	2.7%	-5.9%
BBND	10/30/09	3.70	3.54	-	103.56	-	-4.3%	8.0%	-12.3%
FLR	10/30/09	44.42	40.53	-	103.56	-	-8.8%	8.0%	-16.8%
RGR	10/30/09	10.62	10.05	-	103.56	-	-5.4%	8.0%	-13.4%
RTN	10/30/09	45.28	53.44	-	103.56	-	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.99	-	103.56	-	5.7%	8.0%	-2.3%
immu	11/6/09	3.61	3.27	-	107.13	-	-9.4%	4.4%	-13.8%
cbst	11/6/09	17.60	18.76	-	107.13	-	6.6%	4.4%	2.2%
snta	11/6/09	3.20	5.39	-	107.13	-	68.4%	4.4%	64.0%
CNU	11/13/09	3.10	3.85	-	109.62	-	24.2%	2.1%	22.1%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	25.51	-	109.43	-	8.3%	2.2%	6.0%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	7.00	-	109.57	-	5.6%	2.1%	3.5%
ARO	12/4/09	28.95	32.57	-	111.01	-	12.5%	0.8%	11.7%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	10.20	-	111.01	-	12.6%	0.8%	11.8%
						Totals	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%
66.1% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	1.4%	-13.6%	15.1%
S&P C			111.87			Open	42.3%	23.2%	19.0%

Santa Rally?

Wonder if we'll have a Santa Claus rally this next 2+ weeks? Seems like we do more often than not. My portfolio continues to struggle to move higher, seems to be one step forward one step back. Here is my graph:


I am 13% in cash right now. My next planned sale is CKSW, which is due to be sold right at the start of 2010. Here are my current holdings:

QXM	63%
UEPS	51%
KHD	32%
WILC	141%
CMFO	81%
CKSW	178%
BR	38%
CBI	36%
LIWA	19%
CSKI	35%
PFE	32%
HCKT	18%
UTA	15%
ENDP	19%
RTN	16%
FRX	36%
AMED	13%
CEU	12%
QKLS	10%
AIRV	5%
PRIM	12%
BIOC	7%
TSRA	7%
IDCC	7%
BKE	14%
WTW	7%
CBPO	1%
AGX	-1%
PVSW	-3%
ESI	-3%
KSW	-6%
RGR	-4%
GTLS	-6%
JTX	-6%
JCOM	-15%
QCOR	-23%
GIGM	-30%
WH	-19%
CHCG	-52%

There is one new stock to both the top 30 and top 50 mechanical screens this week, a small cap DYAI. I'd be hard pressed to buy them, but some of these small bio techs have done well. It does look like they expect to be losing money, but they did have a positive income stream from recent successful litigation.

		dyai.pk
+	Operating Income After Depreciation	8.78
-	Minority Interest - Income Account	-
=	Income for Calculation	8.78
	Diluted Shares Outstanding	30.119
	Share Price	1.90
+	Market Cap Calc	57.23
+	Preferred Capital	-
+	Debt in Current Liabilities	1.43
+	Long-Term Debt	-
	Cash and Short-Term Investments	9.59
-	Excess Cash	9.59
=	Enterprise Value	49.06
+	Property Plant and Equipment - Net	0.90
+	Receivables	1.47
+	Inventories	3.19
+	Other Current Assests	0.54
+	Working Cash	-
-	Accounts Payable	2.09
-	Current Liabilities - Other	0.52
=	Invested Capital	3.49
	Earnings Yield	18%
	ROIC	251%

One more week of blogging and I'll be going dark until the new year as we head off to NH (where we intentionally have no internet) for the Holidays.

My "Mechanical" Stocks

I thought it would be interesting to see how my mechanical stocks have fared. For each stock, I show the date I bought it, the percentage change, and how the benchmark Russell 3000 has fared in the same time period. The top part of the table are stocks I still own and the bottom shows stocks that I sold early.

Overall I am beating the benchmark by about 9 points.

		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Price	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AGX	10/22/2009	$12.31	$12.20	-0.9%	1.2%	-2.1%
AMED	9/8/2009	$35.86	$40.62	13.3%	7.6%	5.7%
BIOC	7/30/2009	$3.70	$3.95	6.8%	12.8%	-6.0%
BKE	8/17/2009	$26.66	$28.30	13.7%	12.8%	0.9%
BR	7/30/2009	$16.53	$22.69	38.1%	12.8%	25.3%
CBI	7/30/2009	$13.62	$18.52	36.0%	12.8%	23.2%
CBPO	12/4/2009	$9.15	$9.20	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%
CEU	8/26/2009	$5.40	$6.05	12.0%	7.4%	4.6%
CKSW	1/5/2009	$1.99	$5.53	177.9%	23.2%	154.7%
CMFO	10/30/2009	$4.30	$7.80	81.4%	7.2%	74.2%
ESI	11/3/2009	$93.61	$90.94	-2.9%	6.2%	-9.0%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$31.31	35.5%	18.4%	17.1%
GIGM	7/27/2009	$5.02	$3.53	-29.7%	13.2%	-42.9%
GTLS	8/27/2009	$19.50	$18.39	-5.7%	7.3%	-13.0%
HCKT	5/7/2009	$2.30	$2.72	18.3%	23.9%	-5.6%
IDCC	11/17/2009	$23.62	$25.22	6.8%	-0.2%	6.9%
JCOM	9/30/2009	$23.00	$19.49	-15.3%	4.4%	-19.7%
JTX	6/29/2009	$5.55	$5.16	-7.0%	20.5%	-27.5%
	6/30/2009	$5.41	$5.16	-4.6%	21.3%	-25.8%
PFE	6/9/2009	$14.13	$18.30	31.8%	18.4%	13.4%
PRIM	9/30/2009	$7.30	$8.16	11.8%	4.4%	7.4%
PVSW	8/18/2009	$4.96	$4.81	-3.0%	11.7%	-14.7%
QKLS	11/20/2009	$5.75	$6.35	10.4%	1.7%	8.7%
RGR	10/30/2009	$10.59	$10.05	-4.2%	7.2%	-11.4%
RTN	7/27/2009	$45.61	$52.74	16.3%	13.2%	3.1%
UTA	5/29/2009	$7.90	$9.07	14.8%	21.4%	-6.6%
WTW	9/21/2009	$26.00	$27.71	7.3%	3.2%	4.1%
Average				17.0%	10.9%	6.1%
Still Own	0
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Sold	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AHCI	1/5/2009	$1.11	$1.73	55.9%	0.2%	55.7%
DBTK	3/16/2009	$6.70	$7.05	5.2%	14.7%	-9.5%
DELL	2/23/2009	$8.55	$9.52	11.3%	6.5%	4.9%
	2/27/2009	$8.66	$9.52	10.0%	7.4%	2.5%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$29.08	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%
GME	6/22/2009	$22.64	$25.76	13.8%	24.5%	-10.7%
	6/23/2009	$20.63	$22.65	9.8%	16.5%	-6.7%
PFE	6/5/2009	$14.46	$16.27	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%
RST	5/7/2009	$58.50	$54.00	-15.3%	0.4%	-15.7%
SEPR	8/17/2009	$17.86	$23.09	29.3%	1.4%	27.9%
SOLR	2/23/2009	$4.70	$8.09	72.1%	6.5%	65.7%
UTA	6/23/2009	$8.37	$10.90	30.2%	2.7%	27.5%
VM	6/5/2009	$4.38	$5.18	18.3%	4.5%	13.8%
	6/23/2009	$3.11	$4.33	39.2%	2.7%	36.5%
	6/6/2009	$4.23	$5.18	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%
Average				22.8%	7.6%	15.1%
Open and Closed				19.1%	9.7%	9.3%

JTX Soars

Well, so far JTX has been one of my laggards. They reported earnings this morning (Jackson Hewitt Reports Fiscal 2010 Second Quarter Results). Now typically a September quarter for a tax preparation company is as exciting as wathcing the proverbial paint dry. But not so this time and the stock jumped a snappy 18%. It shows how far down I was as I am still in the red, but hopefully this will lead to bigger and better things.

My other big gainer was LIWA, which shot up another 12% on extremely high volume. The 30% spike last week was prodded by an article in IBD. I have no idea what caused 4x normal volume.

Some one asked me about GIGM. I obviously liked them as they are a holding. I haven't seen any report or earnings since I bought the stock and it has moved down quite a bit (5.02 to 3.60). They should have reported in early September and pretty soon here in December, so they're almost two reports in arrears. I can't say that fills me with confidence... usually a company at least gives an excuse "we're working on a revenue problem with our auditors" or somethng. I suspect that much longer and they could be at a risk of de-listing.

New Mechanical Stocks - December 4th

Relatively busy weekend for new mechanical stocks

CBPO was added to both top 30 and top 50 screens. This is a Chinese company that is new to the Nasdaq. Companies like this have generally had sharp run-ups of late. I did buy-in yesterday.

XOMA is a small bio-tech added to the top 50. I won't be buying thought some of these bio-techs have done well.

ARO - teen retailer, hits the top 30 list. I will consider buying. Here are my stats for the 3 companies.

		aro	cbpo	xoma
+	Operating Income After Depreciation	337.00	45.31	26.02
-	Minority Interest - Income Account	-	11.72	-
=	Income for Calculation	337.00	33.59	26.02
	Diluted Shares Outstanding	67.991	21.633	172.762
	Share Price	28.95	9.06	0.72
+	Market Cap Calc	1,968.34	195.99	124.30
+	Preferred Capital	-	-	0.00
+	Debt in Current Liabilities	-	18.58	-
+	Long-Term Debt	-	0.05	13.13
	Cash and Short-Term Investments	285.63	50.35	27.73
-	Excess Cash	283.76	50.35	7.17
=	Enterprise Value	1,684.58	164.27	130.26
+	Property Plant and Equipment - Net	262.33	27.85	21.79
+	Receivables	-	2.44	3.20
+	Inventories	221.52	33.22	-
+	Other Current Assests	43.24	1.58	1.33
+	Working Cash	1.86	-	20.56
-	Accounts Payable	144.56	3.61	2.66
-	Current Liabilities - Other	122.05	33.56	22.43
=	Invested Capital	262.33	27.93	21.79
	Earnings Yield	20%	20%	20%
	ROIC	128%	120%	119%

Here is an update on my top 50 list:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
DDMX	12/13/08	11.13	18.35	-	88.99	2.31	64.9%	27.3%	37.5%
PSOF	12/13/08	2.74	5.11	-	88.99	2.31	86.5%	27.3%	59.2%
ITWO	12/27/08	5.61	18.74	-	87.16	1.59	234.0%	29.2%	204.9%
JOYG	12/27/08	21.95	53.00	-	87.16	1.59	141.5%	29.2%	112.3%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.31	-	87.16	1.59	221.4%	29.2%	192.2%
CTGX	1/3/09	3.18	6.94	-	92.96	1.59	118.2%	21.1%	97.1%
PMD	1/3/09	6.44	5.65	-	92.96	1.59	-12.3%	21.1%	-33.4%
HPY	1/24/09	8.54	11.54	-	83.11	1.59	35.1%	35.5%	-0.3%
HLIT	1/31/09	5.15	5.55	-	82.83	1.59	7.8%	35.9%	-28.2%
HGT	1/31/09	13.06	16.04	0.36	82.83	1.59	25.6%	35.9%	-10.4%
CNU	2/8/09	1.96	3.40	-	86.98	1.59	73.5%	29.4%	44.0%
SJT	2/8/09	19.05	17.12	0.29	86.98	1.59	-8.6%	29.4%	-38.1%
SGU	2/8/09	2.55	3.83	0.07	86.98	1.59	52.9%	29.4%	23.4%
TC	2/8/09	4.33	11.63	-	86.98	1.59	168.6%	29.4%	139.1%
bioc	2/14/09	3.72	3.99	-	82.76	1.59	7.3%	36.1%	-28.8%
FORR	2/14/09	17.56	25.09	-	82.76	1.59	42.9%	36.1%	6.8%
ZYXI.OB	2/14/09	1.20	1.25	-	82.76	1.59	4.2%	36.1%	-31.9%
FRD	2/21/09	4.95	5.79	-	77.42	1.59	17.0%	45.4%	-28.5%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	5.01	-	77.42	1.59	18.7%	45.4%	-26.7%
MTXX	2/21/09	17.90	4.16	-	77.42	1.59	-76.8%	45.4%	-122.2%
TYPE	2/21/09	3.02	8.00	-	77.42	1.59	164.9%	45.4%	119.5%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	5.27	-	77.42	1.59	-2.6%	45.4%	-48.0%
PDO	2/21/09	3.19	4.61	-	77.42	1.59	44.5%	45.4%	-0.9%
SAPE	2/21/09	3.38	7.52	-	77.42	1.59	122.5%	45.4%	77.1%
VDSI	2/21/09	5.25	6.71	-	77.42	1.59	27.8%	45.4%	-17.6%
IGTE	2/21/09	2.99	9.45	-	77.42	1.59	216.1%	45.4%	170.6%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	97.81	-	73.93	1.59	137.0%	52.3%	84.7%
KTII	2/28/09	55.48	102.10	-	73.93	1.59	84.0%	52.3%	31.7%
INT	2/28/09	29.01	52.59	-	73.93	1.59	81.3%	52.3%	29.0%
ICAD	2/28/09	0.90	1.55	-	77.42	1.59	72.2%	45.4%	26.8%
EXBD	3/6/09	12.96	21.58	-	68.92	1.59	66.5%	63.4%	3.1%
DISH	3/6/09	9.27	21.20	-	68.92	1.59	128.7%	63.4%	65.3%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	4.73	-	68.92	1.59	235.5%	63.4%	172.1%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	23.09	-	68.92	1.59	36.9%	63.4%	-26.5%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.08	-	87.08	1.03	4.3%	28.7%	-24.4%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	6.99	-	87.89	1.03	75.6%	27.5%	48.2%
TWX	5/1/09	22.84	31.42	-	87.89	1.03	37.6%	27.5%	10.1%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	18.05	-	87.89	1.03	-39.5%	27.5%	-67.0%
ulcm	5/1/09	8.72	8.60	-	87.89	1.03	-1.4%	27.5%	-28.8%
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	5.61	-	88.71	1.03	64.5%	26.3%	38.2%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	38.30	-	92.53	1.03	25.9%	21.1%	4.8%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	10.50	-	92.53	1.03	32.9%	21.1%	11.8%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	18.49	-	94.55	1.03	27.4%	18.5%	8.9%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	5.50	-	94.55	1.03	20.9%	18.5%	2.4%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	4.85	-	95.08	1.03	86.5%	17.8%	68.7%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	14.49	-	92.04	0.51	-13.4%	21.2%	-34.6%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	21.33	-	92.04	0.51	-7.1%	21.2%	-28.2%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	28.88	-	87.96	0.51	21.9%	26.8%	-4.9%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	52.65	-	98.06	0.51	16.0%	13.7%	2.3%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	7.21	-	98.81	0.51	10.2%	12.9%	-2.6%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	17.79	-	98.81	0.51	27.5%	12.9%	14.7%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	28.12	-	98.81	0.51	-3.4%	12.9%	-16.3%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	34.94	-	98.81	0.51	-14.7%	12.9%	-27.6%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.48	-	98.81	0.51	-10.5%	12.9%	-23.4%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	6.92	-	98.81	0.51	63.6%	12.9%	50.7%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	12.83	-	98.81	0.51	3.9%	12.9%	-9.0%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.43	-	98.81	0.51	-14.3%	12.9%	-27.1%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	31.59	-	98.81	0.51	28.7%	12.9%	15.8%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	10.64	-	98.81	0.51	-7.1%	12.9%	-19.9%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	7.91	-	100.79	0.51	13.8%	10.6%	3.2%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	10.6%	16.3%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	6.00	-	102.96	0.51	17.6%	8.3%	9.3%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	3.25	-	102.96	0.51	6.9%	8.3%	-1.4%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	7.14	-	102.96	0.51	56.9%	8.3%	48.6%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.18	-	102.60	0.51	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	28.01	-	104.77	0.51	7.7%	6.4%	1.3%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	3.82	-	106.72	0.51	2.7%	4.5%	-1.8%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	85.88	-	103.56	-	-4.9%	7.2%	-12.1%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.43	-	103.56	-	3.6%	7.2%	-3.5%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	54.76	-	107.13	-	-2.2%	3.6%	-5.8%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	18.18	-	107.13	-	3.3%	3.6%	-0.3%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	4.46	-	107.13	-	39.4%	3.6%	35.8%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.41	-	107.13	-	-5.5%	3.6%	-9.2%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	7.16	-	109.62	-	3.0%	1.3%	1.8%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	25.29	-	109.43	-	7.3%	1.4%	5.9%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	6.37	-	109.57	-	-3.9%	1.3%	-5.2%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	9.06	-	111.01	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.72	-	111.01	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	19.0%	1.3%	17.6%
51.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	6.9%	-11.2%	18.1%
S&P C			111.01			Open	41.9%	25.1%	16.8%

Stuck in Neutral

Lots of action/jackson for individual stocks, but my MFI portfolio has gone absolutely nowhere since 9/23. In the meantime, the benchmarks have moved upwards. Has MFI lost its mojo? I have mentioned before that MFI is streaky, extremely streaky. I had said many times before that one thing to watch for MFI was the M&A space. I don't know if it is because we're approaching the holidays or whether the market is a bit extended, but M&A activity seems to me to be slowing down a bit.

During the week, LIWA (+34%) was my big gainer, then software companies CKSW and PVSW were up about 9% along with KHD, GTLS and HCKT were up well also.

Here is my overall portfolio

QXM	78%
WILC	160%
KHD	33%
UEPS	48%
CKSW	183%
LIWA	31%
CMFO	66%
BR	40%
UTA	33%
HCKT	27%
CBI	31%
PFE	33%
CSKI	34%
ENDP	25%
RTN	16%
FRX	35%
AIRV	6%
CEU	11%
TSRA	9%
QKLS	10%
BIOC	8%
IDCC	7%
WTW	8%
PRIM	8%
AMED	7%
AGX	4%
PVSW	6%
RGR	0%
BKE	8%
CBPO	-1%
KSW	-7%
GTLS	-6%
ESI	-8%
JCOM	-9%
QCOR	-17%
GIGM	-22%
WH	-17%
JTX	-25%
CHCG	-55%

Yee-Hah! Li-Wa!

I have been investing for more years than I care to state. But today I set a record. I had my best ever single day gain with a stock.

LIWA shot up 33%. I already had a chunk in my MFI portfolio, and I had added a second position (outside my MFI portfolio) after they mysteriously dipped post their 3q earnings. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

With LIWA flying high, QXM up about 9% (I think due to their becoming independent from XING) and CMFO up 8% is was a huge day for my MFI portfolio, up about 2.2% in a flattish kind of day.

I did add a new stock Monday, TSRA. I like the space that they're in, even if they weren't new per my mechanical portfolio list (they were new May 1st and are up 70% since then). I also sold my GME last week (prematurely). I had been spooked by the Barron's article which insinuated that Video game stores would eventually go the way of CD stores and video rental stores as people get more and more directly online. Turned out to be a savvy move for the wrong reason as GME dropped 8% today as WalMart signaled a video game price war.

Here is my current portfolio, note I haven't added the TSRA position yet:

QXM	93%
WILC	164%
UEPS	52%
LIWA	33%
KHD	27%
CKSW	170%
CMFO	56%
UTA	34%
BR	38%
CBI	31%
PFE	35%
ENDP	34%
CSKI	33%
HCKT	21%
FRX	37%
RTN	14%
AIRV	7%
CEU	13%
QKLS	11%
BIOC	7%
IDCC	6%
WTW	7%
PRIM	7%
AMED	6%
RGR	5%
BKE	12%
AGX	2%
PVSW	2%
KSW	-3%
ESI	-6%
JCOM	-12%
GTLS	-12%
QCOR	-20%
GIGM	-20%
WH	-20%
JTX	-22%
CHCG	-53%

Newest Mechanical Stock

The newest stock this week has shown up on both screens: PDLI. It os another of those biopharms that isn't making any money, but is on the list for a one time payment. While these don't feel like MFI stocks, many of them have done well of late such as QLTI, SNTA and ONTY.

Ironically, this is not the first I have ever heard of PDLI. They popped up on a watchlist I had about a year ago when I was tracking Seth Klarman's portfolio. I am too lazy to look up the details right now, but I think he bought PDLI which then spun off FACT. FACT recently then got bought out and Mr Klarman netted a 135% gain on his $28m investment (which was in under a year). Now you know why I watch what he does. Sadly, I did not follow him on that investment, but I did on LINE earlier this year and made a lot of money.

In case you're interested, his most recent purchases are VSAT and ENZN (Unique Strategy Generates Big Returns for Baupost).

Weekend Update 11/28/09

First, I will note that the November 26th, 2008 portfolio has come of age. It is officially the best portfolio ever, rising by almost 51% in total. It trounced the benchmark which was up a snappy 28%. Here are the 50 stocks (over 100m) in descending order:

CTCM $4.04 $14.68 263.4%

BARE $4.50 $13.0 188.9%

TRA $14.65 $38.97 166.0%

TKTM $4.0 $10.58 164.5%

MLNX $7.20 $18.17 152.4%

HLF $18.10 $42.41 134.3%

IBAS $1.38 $2.99 116.7%

MRX $11.39 $23.61 107.3%

TWLL $5.60 $11.27 101.3%

COH $17.80 $35.29 98.3%

GTLS $8.81 $16.83 91.0%

NTRI $13.10 $24.56 87.5%

BVF $7.60 $14.14 86.1%

UEPS $10.15 $18.71 84.3%

KNXA $6.32 $11.26 78.2%

CF $52.89 $83.94 58.7%

LOOP $6.20 $9.77 57.6%

EME $15.35 $23.96 56.1%

CSKI $10.43 $16.20 55.3%

MSB $8.28 $12.33 48.9%

ELOS $6.77 $10.05 48.4%

DAR $5.07 $7.38 45.6%

TRLG $12.81 $18.59 45.1%

MTW $7.11 $9.90 39.2%

KBR $13.56 $18.83 38.9%

HSII $20.79 $28.50 37.1%

FIX $8.29 $11.35 36.9%

FWLT $22.50 $30.35 34.9%

FRX $23.07 $30.56 32.5%

MSO $3.42 $4.52 32.2%

KFY $12.49 $16.32 30.7%

MWW $11.47 $14.92 30.1%

ELNK $6.39 $8.10 26.8%

KG $9.43 $11.95 26.7%

KHD $9.65 $11.61 20.3%

AYI $27.12 $32.31 19.1%

USMO $8.86 $10.22 15.3%

VRGY $9.0 $10.25 13.9%

MLHR $14.38 $15.17 5.5%

SWIR $8.44 $8.62 2.1%

PPD $40.11 $39.02 -2.7%

PRGX $4.79 $4.61 -3.8%

HCKT $2.84 $2.71 -4.6%

TTWO $12.05 $11.24 -6.7%

GIGM $4.79 $4.07 -15.0%

WFR $15.50 $12.06 -22.2%

VPHM $11.47 $7.51 -34.5%

SCMP $5.50 $3.47 -36.9%

EGY $6.54 $4.11 -37.2%

PACR $9.86 $2.91 -70.5%

wow, some real bargains a year ago. Many still on the lists even with the appreciation.
This was the 7th straight portfolio to beat the benchmark. I list all the portfolios and their performances below. You'll note that the most recent ones are underperforming (again).

Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-31.1%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-29.5%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-22.1%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-11.5%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%
12/26/2008	43.1%	28.7%
1/23/2009	50.2%	34.6%
2/27/2009	76.1%	51.4%
3/27/2009	55.3%	36.2%
4/24/2009	33.1%	27.3%
5/29/2009	21.8%	19.2%
6/29/2009	17.2%	18.3%
7/29/2009	11.5%	11.9%
8/28/2009	4.6%	5.8%
9/25/2009	0.4%	3.7%
10/30/2009	2.4%	5.3%
Grand Total	1.9%	0.9%

Even with the higher average performance (a single percentage point), in actual dollars both portfolios are down about 6% as if you go down by 20% and then up by 25% you are at the same spot in the end. Interestingly, the 6% down almost exactly matches my real life portfolio. As I have often said, if you stay in this long enough, you should begin to approach the broader averages... which sadly are down.

Now here is a quick peek at the mechanical top 50 portfolio, which continues to soundly beat the benchmarks.

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
AIRT	11/29/08	6.08	9.42	-	90.09	2.31	54.9%	24.2%	30.8%
BSQR	11/29/08	2.48	2.22	-	90.09	2.31	-10.5%	24.2%	-34.7%
CKSW	11/29/08	2.20	5.20	-	90.09	2.31	136.4%	24.2%	112.2%
IILG	11/29/08	5.30	11.24	-	90.09	2.31	112.1%	24.2%	87.9%
PBSO.PK	11/29/08	0.39	0.50	-	90.09	2.31	28.2%	24.2%	4.0%
DIVX	12/8/08	4.37	5.02	-	87.93	2.31	14.9%	27.2%	-12.4%
GSIT	12/8/08	2.94	3.40	-	87.93	2.31	15.6%	27.2%	-11.6%
HGRD	12/8/08	1.35	4.24	-	87.93	2.31	214.1%	27.2%	186.8%
ISIL	12/8/08	7.92	12.92	0.12	87.93	2.31	64.6%	27.2%	37.4%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.58	-	87.93	2.31	-3.8%	27.2%	-31.0%
PVSW	12/8/08	3.80	4.87	-	87.93	2.31	28.2%	27.2%	0.9%
DDMX	12/13/08	11.13	17.70	-	88.99	2.31	59.0%	25.7%	33.3%
PSOF	12/13/08	2.74	5.88	-	88.99	2.31	114.6%	25.7%	88.9%
ITWO	12/27/08	5.61	18.27	-	87.16	1.59	225.7%	27.5%	198.1%
JOYG	12/27/08	21.95	53.52	-	87.16	1.59	143.8%	27.5%	116.3%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.32	-	87.16	1.59	222.3%	27.5%	194.8%
CTGX	1/3/09	3.18	6.28	-	92.96	1.59	97.5%	19.6%	77.9%
PMD	1/3/09	6.44	6.00	-	92.96	1.59	-6.8%	19.6%	-26.4%
HPY	1/24/09	8.54	10.93	-	83.11	1.59	28.0%	33.7%	-5.8%
HLIT	1/31/09	5.15	5.24	-	82.83	1.59	1.7%	34.2%	-32.4%
HGT	1/31/09	13.06	16.10	0.36	82.83	1.59	26.0%	34.2%	-8.2%
CNU	2/8/09	1.96	3.06	-	86.98	1.59	56.1%	27.8%	28.3%
SJT	2/8/09	19.05	17.56	0.29	86.98	1.59	-6.3%	27.8%	-34.1%
SGU	2/8/09	2.55	3.85	0.07	86.98	1.59	53.6%	27.8%	25.9%
TC	2/8/09	4.33	11.82	-	86.98	1.59	173.0%	27.8%	145.2%
bioc	2/14/09	3.72	3.93	-	82.76	1.59	5.6%	34.3%	-28.7%
FORR	2/14/09	17.56	24.76	-	82.76	1.59	41.0%	34.3%	6.7%
ZYXI.OB	2/14/09	1.20	1.33	-	82.76	1.59	10.8%	34.3%	-23.5%
FRD	2/21/09	4.95	5.75	-	77.42	1.59	16.2%	43.6%	-27.4%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	4.83	-	77.42	1.59	14.5%	43.6%	-29.1%
MTXX	2/21/09	17.90	3.98	-	77.42	1.59	-77.8%	43.6%	-121.3%
TYPE	2/21/09	3.02	7.66	-	77.42	1.59	153.6%	43.6%	110.1%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	4.94	-	77.42	1.59	-8.7%	43.6%	-52.3%
PDO	2/21/09	3.19	4.46	-	77.42	1.59	39.8%	43.6%	-3.8%
SAPE	2/21/09	3.38	7.38	-	77.42	1.59	118.3%	43.6%	74.8%
VDSI	2/21/09	5.25	6.63	-	77.42	1.59	26.3%	43.6%	-17.3%
IGTE	2/21/09	2.99	9.32	-	77.42	1.59	211.7%	43.6%	168.1%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	93.86	-	73.93	1.59	127.4%	50.4%	77.1%
KTII	2/28/09	55.48	94.16	-	73.93	1.59	69.7%	50.4%	19.4%
INT	2/28/09	29.01	53.36	-	73.93	1.59	83.9%	50.4%	33.6%
ICAD	2/28/09	0.90	1.51	-	77.42	1.59	67.8%	43.6%	24.2%
EXBD	3/6/09	12.96	21.25	-	68.92	1.59	64.0%	61.3%	2.7%
DISH	3/6/09	9.27	20.65	-	68.92	1.59	122.8%	61.3%	61.5%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	4.82	-	68.92	1.59	241.8%	61.3%	180.6%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	22.53	-	68.92	1.59	33.6%	61.3%	-27.7%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	5.62	-	87.08	1.03	-3.6%	27.0%	-30.6%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	6.90	-	87.89	1.03	73.4%	25.8%	47.5%
TWX	5/1/09	22.84	30.85	-	87.89	1.03	35.1%	25.8%	9.2%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	17.46	-	87.89	1.03	-41.5%	25.8%	-67.3%
ulcm	5/1/09	8.72	9.00	-	87.89	1.03	3.2%	25.8%	-22.6%
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	5.69	-	88.71	1.03	66.9%	24.7%	42.2%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	38.19	-	92.53	1.03	25.5%	19.5%	6.0%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	10.29	-	92.53	1.03	30.3%	19.5%	10.7%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	18.25	-	94.55	1.03	25.8%	17.0%	8.8%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	5.50	-	94.55	1.03	20.9%	17.0%	3.9%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	4.60	-	95.08	1.03	76.9%	16.3%	60.6%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	16.33	-	92.04	0.51	-2.4%	19.6%	-22.0%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	25.32	-	92.04	0.51	10.3%	19.6%	-9.3%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	28.60	-	87.96	0.51	20.7%	25.1%	-4.4%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	51.63	-	98.06	0.51	13.7%	12.3%	1.5%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	6.87	-	98.81	0.51	5.0%	11.4%	-6.4%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	17.97	-	98.81	0.51	28.8%	11.4%	17.4%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	28.46	-	98.81	0.51	-2.2%	11.4%	-13.6%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	35.58	-	98.81	0.51	-13.2%	11.4%	-24.6%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.09	-	98.81	0.51	-20.6%	11.4%	-32.0%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	5.97	-	98.81	0.51	41.1%	11.4%	29.7%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	12.28	-	98.81	0.51	-0.6%	11.4%	-12.0%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.65	-	98.81	0.51	-8.8%	11.4%	-20.2%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	30.81	-	98.81	0.51	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	11.10	-	98.81	0.51	-3.1%	11.4%	-14.5%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	7.46	-	100.79	0.51	7.3%	9.2%	-1.9%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	9.2%	17.7%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	6.01	-	102.96	0.51	17.8%	6.9%	10.9%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	3.25	-	102.96	0.51	6.9%	6.9%	0.0%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	6.24	-	102.96	0.51	37.1%	6.9%	30.2%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.22	-	102.60	0.51	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	27.46	-	104.77	0.51	5.6%	5.1%	0.6%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	3.81	-	106.72	0.51	2.4%	3.1%	-0.7%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	92.10	-	103.56	-	1.9%	5.8%	-3.9%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	26.99	-	103.56	-	-1.6%	5.8%	-7.4%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	55.76	-	107.13	-	-0.4%	2.3%	-2.7%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	16.61	-	107.13	-	-5.6%	2.3%	-7.9%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	3.88	-	107.13	-	21.3%	2.3%	19.0%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.40	-	107.13	-	-5.8%	2.3%	-8.1%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	6.81	-	109.62	-	-2.0%	0.0%	-2.0%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	23.69	-	109.43	-	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	18.0%	0.7%	17.4%
51.% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	2.0%	-14.4%	16.3%
S&P C			109.57			Open	43.6%	24.6%	19.0%

Sometimes I Hate it When I am Right

Wow, was I ever right in my post yesterday about WH and the risk of the Chinese/US trade war. I could have saved myself more money than I care to mention publicly if I had sold on Monday. Oh well. Maybe they'll bounce back. I had felt that some of the bad news potential was built in as the stock had dropped from $6.50 to $4.40 in the past quarter while the market had generally headed north. But the bad report (WSP Holdings Announces Third Quarter 2009 Results) drove WH down about 22%.

Luckily I have many other distractions and a long term view so I didn't jump out of my 3rd story window.

One Day Too Short for my IBAS

Pretty funny, in my top 30 Mechanical portfolio I took IBAS out this weekend as it hit its one year anniversary. It was a good year, the stock went from $1.21 to $2.26, which is a 87% gain versus 40.5% for the S&P 500. Today though, KPN announced they were upping their bid (I think it was originally $1.75) to $3.00 (UPDATE - KPN and iBasis agree on final, higher offer). So could have been +147% instead of 87%.

CSKI had another great day, up 7.5%. I think those shorts I mentioned last week are wishing they had sold. I have noticed that CSKI follows a pattern, they always seem to explode post-earnings and then slowly drop back down. If I wasn't in MFI (or a taxable account) I'd be thinking about selling, even though it is an extremely cheap stock. I just have that unexplainable fear that the stock is too good to be true.

WH and GTLS were also both up about 8%. I was amazed this morning to see that GTLS was under $16. They seem like such a great play as the USA will inevitably build out their natural gas infrastructure and GTLS (by my reading) will be right in the middle of that build out. I do worry about WH having a meltdown, I have been scouring the news to check out more about them, but I fear they were negatively impacted by the trade war Obama kicked off a couple months ago with China (US/China trade war heats up with duties slapped on steel pipe imports). But I will find out tomorrow morning (WSP Holdings Announces Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter 2009 Results).

November 20 Charts Etc

Just a quickie update. First my weekly graph as it continues to meander about 5 percentage points under breakeven. Then an update on mechanical portfolios, the newest stock is IDCC which hit both lists as a newbie during the week. I did buy them mid week. QLYS fell off with their 6% jump on Friday I suppose. I did buy them as well, but they will not be an "official" mechanical stock as I only update on weekends.

Mechanical Portfolio Update Nov 21st

My mechanical portfolios continue to outperform, though they are givinng a bit of their lead back. However, one has to admit that the fact that overall the mechanical top 50 stocks are up 18% overall versus basically flat for the S&P 500 and that open stocks are up 44% is very impressive.

ABAT	11/22/08	1.34	3.41	-	79.52	2.31	154.5%	40.5%	114.0%
ADSK	11/22/08	14.37	23.81	-	79.52	2.31	65.7%	40.5%	25.2%
GIGM	11/22/08	3.79	4.09	-	79.52	2.31	7.9%	40.5%	-32.6%
OPTV	11/22/08	0.94	1.50	-	79.52	2.31	59.6%	40.5%	19.1%
PRO	11/22/08	4.14	7.99	-	79.52	2.31	93.0%	40.5%	52.5%
WTSLA	11/22/08	2.20	3.02	-	79.52	2.31	37.3%	40.5%	-3.2%
Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
AIRT	11/29/08	6.08	9.67	-	90.09	2.31	59.0%	24.0%	35.0%
BSQR	11/29/08	2.48	2.23	-	90.09	2.31	-10.1%	24.0%	-34.1%
CKSW	11/29/08	2.20	5.41	-	90.09	2.31	145.9%	24.0%	121.9%
IILG	11/29/08	5.30	11.50	-	90.09	2.31	117.0%	24.0%	93.0%
PBSO.PK	11/29/08	0.39	0.60	-	90.09	2.31	53.8%	24.0%	29.8%
DIVX	12/8/08	4.37	5.21	-	87.93	2.31	19.2%	27.1%	-7.9%
GSIT	12/8/08	2.94	3.57	-	87.93	2.31	21.4%	27.1%	-5.6%
HGRD	12/8/08	1.35	4.57	-	87.93	2.31	238.5%	27.1%	211.4%
ISIL	12/8/08	7.92	12.68	0.12	87.93	2.31	61.6%	27.1%	34.5%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.62	-	87.93	2.31	-3.1%	27.1%	-30.2%
PVSW	12/8/08	3.80	5.00	-	87.93	2.31	31.6%	27.1%	4.5%
DDMX	12/13/08	11.13	18.50	-	88.99	2.31	66.2%	25.6%	40.7%
PSOF	12/13/08	2.74	6.45	-	88.99	2.31	135.4%	25.6%	109.8%
ITWO	12/27/08	5.61	18.31	-	87.16	1.59	226.4%	27.4%	199.0%
JOYG	12/27/08	21.95	54.03	-	87.16	1.59	146.2%	27.4%	118.8%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.28	-	87.16	1.59	218.4%	27.4%	191.1%
CTGX	1/3/09	3.18	6.79	-	92.96	1.59	113.5%	19.4%	94.1%
PMD	1/3/09	6.44	5.75	-	92.96	1.59	-10.7%	19.4%	-30.1%
HPY	1/24/09	8.54	11.21	-	83.11	1.59	31.3%	33.6%	-2.3%
HLIT	1/31/09	5.15	5.22	-	82.83	1.59	1.4%	34.0%	-32.7%
HGT	1/31/09	13.06	16.36	0.36	82.83	1.59	28.0%	34.0%	-6.0%
CNU	2/8/09	1.96	3.08	-	86.98	1.59	57.1%	27.6%	29.5%
SJT	2/8/09	19.05	17.83	0.29	86.98	1.59	-4.9%	27.6%	-32.5%
SGU	2/8/09	2.55	3.87	0.07	86.98	1.59	54.4%	27.6%	26.8%
TC	2/8/09	4.33	11.52	-	86.98	1.59	166.1%	27.6%	138.4%
bioc	2/14/09	3.72	4.11	-	82.76	1.59	10.5%	34.1%	-23.6%
FORR	2/14/09	17.56	25.02	-	82.76	1.59	42.5%	34.1%	8.3%
ZYXI.OB	2/14/09	1.20	1.37	-	82.76	1.59	14.2%	34.1%	-20.0%
FRD	2/21/09	4.95	5.80	-	77.42	1.59	17.2%	43.4%	-26.2%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	4.74	-	77.42	1.59	12.3%	43.4%	-31.1%
MTXX	2/21/09	17.90	4.22	-	77.42	1.59	-76.4%	43.4%	-119.8%
TYPE	2/21/09	3.02	7.66	-	77.42	1.59	153.6%	43.4%	110.2%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	4.75	-	77.42	1.59	-12.2%	43.4%	-55.6%
PDO	2/21/09	3.19	4.72	-	77.42	1.59	48.0%	43.4%	4.6%
SAPE	2/21/09	3.38	7.25	-	77.42	1.59	114.5%	43.4%	71.1%
VDSI	2/21/09	5.25	6.53	-	77.42	1.59	24.4%	43.4%	-19.0%
IGTE	2/21/09	2.99	9.72	-	77.42	1.59	225.1%	43.4%	181.7%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	95.72	-	73.93	1.59	131.9%	50.2%	81.8%
KTII	2/28/09	55.48	98.64	-	73.93	1.59	77.8%	50.2%	27.6%
INT	2/28/09	29.01	53.75	-	73.93	1.59	85.3%	50.2%	35.1%
ICAD	2/28/09	0.90	1.46	-	77.42	1.59	62.2%	43.4%	18.8%
EXBD	3/6/09	12.96	22.36	-	68.92	1.59	72.5%	61.1%	11.5%
DISH	3/6/09	9.27	19.99	-	68.92	1.59	115.6%	61.1%	54.6%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	3.69	-	68.92	1.59	161.7%	61.1%	100.6%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	22.92	-	68.92	1.59	35.9%	61.1%	-25.2%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	5.95	-	87.08	1.03	2.1%	26.8%	-24.8%
CRAY	5/1/09	3.98	7.03	-	87.89	1.03	76.6%	25.7%	51.0%
TWX	5/1/09	22.84	31.64	-	87.89	1.03	38.5%	25.7%	12.9%
RST	5/1/09	29.83	17.68	-	87.89	1.03	-40.7%	25.7%	-66.4%
ULCM.PK	5/1/09	2.18	-	-	87.89	1.03	-100.0%	25.7%	-125.7%
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	5.68	-	88.71	1.03	66.6%	24.5%	42.1%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	37.69	-	92.53	1.03	23.9%	19.4%	4.5%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	10.78	-	92.53	1.03	36.5%	19.4%	17.1%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	18.36	-	94.55	1.03	26.5%	16.8%	9.7%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	5.13	-	94.55	1.03	12.7%	16.8%	-4.1%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	4.70	-	95.08	1.03	80.8%	16.2%	64.6%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	16.33	-	92.04	0.51	-2.4%	19.4%	-21.9%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	25.49	-	92.04	0.51	11.1%	19.4%	-8.4%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	27.69	-	87.96	0.51	16.9%	25.0%	-8.1%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	50.59	-	98.06	0.51	11.5%	12.1%	-0.7%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	7.04	-	98.81	0.51	7.6%	11.3%	-3.6%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	19.65	-	98.81	0.51	40.9%	11.3%	29.6%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	28.98	-	98.81	0.51	-0.4%	11.3%	-11.7%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	36.59	-	98.81	0.51	-10.7%	11.3%	-22.0%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.08	-	98.81	0.51	-20.8%	11.3%	-32.1%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	6.24	-	98.81	0.51	47.5%	11.3%	36.3%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	12.35	-	98.81	0.51	0.0%	11.3%	-11.3%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.66	-	98.81	0.51	-8.5%	11.3%	-19.8%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	31.25	-	98.81	0.51	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	11.01	-	98.81	0.51	-3.8%	11.3%	-15.1%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	8.03	-	100.79	0.51	15.5%	9.1%	6.5%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	9.1%	17.9%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	5.69	-	102.96	0.51	11.6%	6.8%	4.8%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	3.40	-	102.96	0.51	11.8%	6.8%	5.1%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	6.25	-	102.96	0.51	37.3%	6.8%	30.5%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.32	-	102.60	0.51	29.6%	7.2%	22.5%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	27.06	-	104.77	0.51	4.1%	4.9%	-0.9%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	3.88	-	106.72	0.51	4.3%	3.0%	1.3%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	92.29	-	103.56	-	2.1%	5.7%	-3.5%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.55	-	103.56	-	4.1%	5.7%	-1.6%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	55.10	-	107.13	-	-1.6%	2.1%	-3.7%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	16.95	-	107.13	-	-3.7%	2.1%	-5.8%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	3.82	-	107.13	-	19.4%	2.1%	17.2%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.55	-	107.13	-	-1.7%	2.1%	-3.8%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	7.04	-	109.62	-	1.3%	-0.2%	1.5%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	18.2%	0.6%	17.7%
51.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	2.0%	-14.4%	16.4%
S&P C			109.43			Open	44.5%	24.7%	19.7%

Steady State

A lot of news for my portfolio with the rash of Chinese companies reporting, but after the smoke cleared, I was pretty much on par with the market. Without either the CMED or CHCG fiascos, it would have been a solid week.

As mentioned, I did sell my CMED position and I sold 1/2 of my WILC position, which had hit its anniversary date at a very nice 289% return. Then today at the start I bought QKLS, which is a new stock on the screen and will likely hit the mechanical portfolio this weekend (I sometimes front run).

I now have 38 stocks. My movement towards following the quasi mechanical approach is leading towards more stocks. I don't mind the additional transactional costs and I like the broader portfolio. So here are my current holdings and how they have fared (I'll note that my average open stock is up 20% and since the beginning of time, well at least Febraury 2006 I am beating the benchmark IWV by 10 points but still 5 points underwrater):

QXM	80%
WILC	187%
UEPS	51%
CKSW	172%
KHD	23%
CBI	44%
UTA	36%
HCKT	30%
BR	36%
CMFO	45%
ENDP	33%
PFE	32%
GME	13%
FRX	28%
CSKI	15%
BIOC	11%
RTN	12%
LIWA	5%
AIRV	5%
PRIM	10%
BKE	13%
CEU	5%
AMED	5%
QKLS	4%
WTW	5%
RGR	4%
PVSW	1%
AGX	0%
IDCC	0%
ESI	-1%
KSW	-3%
WH	4%
JCOM	-11%
QCOR	-23%
GIGM	-19%
GTLS	-19%
JTX	-24%
CHCG	-44%

Of the 38, 26 are now of the mechanical variety, meaning I bought them shortly after they appearded on a list for the first time in 52 weeks. With my stock sales, I am still 15% in cash, which at the average amount I place in a stock would equate to room for about 8 new names. CHCG is my next scheduled sale and I will be glad to say good bye.

So Long, Farewell

Every now and then a stock gets taken to the woodshed. That is what happened today to CMED, a stock I had added as a "quasi" MFI stock. I knew the headlines were not good when I woke up this morning (InPlay: China Medical Tech misses by $0.49, misses on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus). I should have known to sell them in the summer when they made a lame excuse about the 2nd quarter being poor. No 2nd chances, I sold them today, the first time in a long time I have sold prematurely.

Obviously the crushing of CMED made for a poor day. But I did get good news with one of my newest stocks, CMFO. They gave some most excellent guidance for 2010 (China Marine Food Group Ltd. Announces 2010 Guidance). They went up 13% on the news on this horrible day. They expect revenues "greater than $80m" and 18m of income. I took a look to see what that means, the past 4 quarters they have $58.1m of revenues and income of 12.7m. So that is huge, almost 50% growth in revenues and income. Giddy-up.

Two other stocks of mine reported earnings: GME and BKE. GME was pretty good (GameStop Profit Rises 12% On Solid Sales of Videogames) and went up on the day. I thought BKE was solid, but they were down (Higher online sales boost Buckle's 3Q profit). Their revenues were up 10% and they made 73 cents per share. I find it ironic that their stock is going up while they're successful, because they're successful.

Chinese Update

Well, I was right. CHCG earnings were a goose egg and the stock was down 13% yesterday. CSKI was good and they went up about 5%, I thought CEU was good, and they started up about 6% but over the day trickled back to flat. Finally, KHD had a good follow-through day as I predicted and were up another 60 cents.

I did buy a new Mechanical portfolio stock: IDCC. They had just entered the top 30 screen and I liked their story. Here are their stats:

		idcc
+	Operating Income After Depreciation	107.55
-	Minority Interest - Income Account	-
=	Income for Calculation	107.55
	Diluted Shares Outstanding	43.819
	Share Price	23.43
+	Market Cap Calc	1,026.68
+	Preferred Capital	-
+	Debt in Current Liabilities	0.59
+	Long-Term Debt	0.54
	Cash and Short-Term Investments	429.72
-	Excess Cash	429.72
=	Enterprise Value	598.08
+	Property Plant and Equipment - Net	10.02
+	Receivables	204.67
+	Inventories	-
+	Other Current Assests	83.86
+	Working Cash	-
-	Accounts Payable	4.50
-	Current Liabilities - Other	206.00
=	Invested Capital	88.04
	Earnings Yield	18%
	ROIC	122%

Of course, about 4 hours after I bought them, they lowered revenue guidance for q4 (sigh) as shown here (InterDigital sees Q4 revenue below market expectations). If there is any sort of additional sell off, I will be looking to add to LIWA and UTA, as I thought they sold off too much this week. That will not be a MFI purchase.

Finally, I will shortly be selling my WILC... probably on the next decent volume day as I am up over 200% on them and my year is virtually up - they are in IRA, so taxes are not an issue (yet).

跑在中國股票

For those of you not fluent in Chinese, today (as my headline states clearly) was a run on my Chinese stocks. They were virtually all in the news today. Here is what I saw, in order of the news:

UTA: I knew the minute I started to read their 10Q (oddly, most of these companies sent out their Qs before their press releases, many US companies have the 10Q follow the earnings release by a couple days) that it wasn't going to be a good day. UTA had run up pretty well (about 35%) pre-earnings and their numbers didn't knock the cover off the ball (Universal Travel Group 3Q profit edges up 2 pct). They ended up down 15% on the day. Probably a bit extreme (IMHO). If you step back,

1. they will make $1.20 per share in 2009 (about a 10 p/e).
2. they have $23m in cash against their 161m market cap and
3. They grew YoY revenues by 45% and expect 2009 to be 20% above 2008 despite selling off their air freight operations.

KHD: They had the most excellent of earnings (KHD Humboldt Wedag International Ltd. Reports 2009 Third Quarter and Nine-Month Results). Analysts expected a nickel and 100m of revenues. It was more like $141m of revenues and 25 cents of earnings. They appear to be putting the hard times and cancelled contracts in the rear view mirror and gave a reasonably bullish outlook on the future:

"It has also been a year since we began to see the impact of the dramatic slowdown in our main cement market and started to develop our restructuring plans. We are making good progress with the implementation of our new operating structure and now have a clear direction for KHD to create a business that is sustainable over the longer term."

CEO Jouni Salo continued, "We are also pleased to note that cement order intake was more than three times the level of the second quarter of 2009 and 19 percent higher than the cement order intake in the third quarter of 2008."

Based upon this plethora of good news, KHD jumped about 20% today, and I respectfully think they have substantial more upside. I also knew their earnings were good right away.

LIWA: This was a strange one. I thought their quarter was spectacular (Lihua International Reports Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results). Oddly, the stock was down 4.5% and is a great buy (IMHO) at $8.70. I suspect they'll soon be joining the MFI lists. Look at the numbers:

1. sales up YoY 186%
2. gross profit was 9.8m versus 5.2m a year ago.
3. their cash is up to $38m from 28m in past quarter.
4. they will increase their capacity to make copper wire from 18,000 tons to 25,000 ton by june 2010.
5. their operating income for 3 quarters 2009 is 21m with 8m this quarter.
   

If you assume the 4th quarter will equal the 3rd quarter, you get $29m of operating income for the year. With a 230m market cap, I estimated an earnings yield around 14%. Then ROIC is over 100%.

CHCG - Argh! They announced after the bell this evening and I frankly thought the numbers (CHINA 3C GROUP Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report) sucked. They actually lost $1m in the 3rd quarter, which is NOT a good trend line (they made $8 last year). Perhaps it is already baked in the 60 cent share price, but I am looking forward to placing them in my rear view mirror. I will hold them through my date, but I am quickly losing interest. Probably down another 10% tomorrow, I should have sold them at 84 cents a couple weeks ago.

CSKI - good news here (CHINA SKY ONE MEDICAL, INC. Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report). Here are some quickies that I picked up:

1. cash is up from 40m to 56m since 12/31
2. revenues are up YoY 29.7m to 43.2m for the quarter
   
3. revenues are up 65.8m to 100m for 9 months (note the 3rd quarter is much more than a third)
4. they made 74 cents a share and now have $1.76 for 3/4 of year.
5. Stock is at $14.68.
6. market cap is $244m

wow, is there a cheaper stock out there? Unless you believe the numbers are fictitious, they are stunning. I just wish I had bought more a week ago when they were a mere $12.39. I think they go up at least 10% tomorrow, at least until the short selling hedge funds publish more scare articles. 17% of shares are short, or 1.8m shares. I don't think I'd want to be short tomorrow.

Late news alert, one more stock reported earnings this evening:

CEU: I don't know, it is getting past my bedtime, and sometimes it is difficult to judge, but the earnings look pretty darned good to me (China Education Alliance, Inc. Announces Strong Third Quarter 2009 Financial Results).

1. revenues up 43%
2. eps was 16 cents vs one lonely analyst at 11 cents
3. $39m in cash versus under $24m 12/31/08
4. fast growing business

They're up 4% in late night trading, I see CSKI is up about 5%. Except for the CHCG fiasco, might be a decent day tomorrow. I did not buy anything today, though I see to my chagrin that SNTA is already up 20% since hitting my mechanical portfolio. Here is the MP (top 30) right now:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
BIDZ	11/22/08	2.39	2.56	-	79.52	2.31	7.1%	42.8%	-35.6%
KBR	11/22/08	10.45	20.82	0.10	79.52	2.31	100.2%	42.8%	57.4%
OPTV	11/22/08	0.94	1.55	-	79.52	2.31	64.9%	42.8%	22.1%
IBAS	11/22/08	1.21	2.31	-	79.52	2.31	90.9%	42.8%	48.2%
Vclk	11/29/08	6.17	10.30	-	90.09	2.31	66.9%	26.0%	40.9%
DIVX	12/8/08	4.37	5.40	-	87.93	2.31	23.6%	29.1%	-5.5%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.71	-	87.93	2.31	-1.6%	29.1%	-30.6%
ESIC	12/13/08	1.13	1.54	-	88.99	2.31	36.3%	27.6%	8.7%
MSO	12/27/08	2.80	5.28	-	87.16	1.59	88.6%	29.4%	59.2%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	2.96	-	87.16	1.59	187.4%	29.4%	158.0%
WFR	12/27/08	13.43	13.37	-	87.16	1.59	-0.4%	29.4%	-29.9%
AHCI	1/3/09	1.15	2.80	-	92.96	1.59	143.5%	21.3%	122.1%
CKSW	1/3/09	1.99	5.76	-	92.96	1.59	189.4%	21.3%	168.1%
COH	2/14/09	13.97	35.99	-	82.76	1.59	157.6%	36.3%	121.3%
DELL	2/21/09	8.41	15.96	-	77.42	1.59	89.8%	45.7%	44.1%
SOLR	2/21/09	4.22	4.74	-	77.42	1.59	12.3%	45.7%	-33.4%
DECK	2/28/09	41.27	98.95	-	73.93	1.59	139.8%	52.6%	87.2%
FWLT	2/28/09	15.04	33.73	-	73.93	1.59	124.3%	52.6%	71.7%