Saturday, December 20, 2014

Weekend Update - 5 Days to Christmas

Weekend Update

Well, I guess this past week was the Santa Rally for 2014.  I was up about 4%, which I have to say was nice after a tough stretch.  Still a bad year, but at least a little bit better. Now down just 9%.

At least I continue to Step Away From the Batter, which frankly was a mistake this week as a lot of stocks I might have bought at the start of the week popped about 10%.  For fun, I went through my top 200 analysis and listed stocks that were beaten down in the Oil & Gas space.  AE, RES, NOV, HGT, CRT, FET, OIS and FTI.  If I had bought that basket at the end of Monday here is what my result would have been:

Stock 15-Dec 19-Dec Change
CRT 18.17 20.27 11.6%
NOV 61.93 67.07 8.3%
AE 38.85 46.75 20.3%
OIS 42.94 48.68 13.4%
FET 17.21 21.27 23.6%
RES 12.11 14.11 16.5%
HGT 7.67 8.08 5.3%
FTI 42.75 48.2 12.7%

MFI Select

Had a good week, frankly up exactly with the averages.  I am still beating the R3K by 27 points:

2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.25 $0.20 19.4% 16.4%
KLAC $61.47 $69.72 $18.40 43.4% 16.4%
RPXC $16.22 $14.16 $0.00 -12.7% 16.4%
SNDK $69.55 $99.99 $0.83 45.0% 16.4%
WNR $39.11 $37.61 $3.04 3.9% 16.4%
Totals 19.8% 16.4%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $20.24 $0.00 3.4% 10.7%
CA $29.54 $30.92 $0.75 7.2% 10.7%
CSCO $22.79 $27.77 $0.38 23.5% 10.7%
NSR $25.82 $26.47 $0.00 2.5% 10.7%
RCII $28.78 $34.18 $0.46 20.4% 10.7%
Totals 11.4% 10.7%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $27.77 $0.19 14.6% 6.0%
AGX $36.71 $32.29 $0.70 -10.1% 6.0%
ITRN $21.32 $22.45 $0.38 7.1% 6.0%
BRCD $9.34 $11.61 $0.04 24.7% 6.0%
CBI $58.25 $41.31 $0.07 -29.0% 6.0%
Totals 1.5% 6.0%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $59.90 $0.21 -7.2% 1.7%
IPCM $38.45 $46.03 $0.00 19.7% 1.7%
VIAB $72.29 $75.92 $0.33 5.5% 1.7%
NHTC $12.19 $11.65 $0.01 -4.3% 1.7%
AWRE $4.40 $4.44 $0.00 0.9% 1.7%
Totals 2.9% 1.7%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 1.5% 2.9% 19.8% 11.4% 8.7%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 39.5%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7%            -               -   14.5%
MFI Overall Gain 63.6% 68.9% 113.5% 48.2% 73.6%
Current Balance      40,912       42,228     53,380      37,048    173,568
R3K Current Tranche 6.0% 1.7% 16.4% 10.7% 8.7%
R3K Overall Gain 54.6% 59.1% 40.9% 31.6% 46.6%
R3K Balance      38,660       39,773     35,235      32,907    146,576
Annualized IRR 23.3% 28.4% 49.6% 27.4% 32.5%

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420
Current 26.99%      173,568

The construction stocks continue to be the big drag, FLR, AGX & CBI.  No huge open winners for me, though SNDK & KLAC are both up about 45%, giving the February 2014 tranche a decent edge.

MFI Formula

Still just have the single tranche here.  Makes it a short list.  Obviously GME is the big laggard causing me to trail the averages.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.02 $0.11 11.1% 5.5%
BKE $45.55 $51.24 $0.22 13.0% 5.5%
CA $27.87 $30.92 $0.25 11.8% 5.5%
GME $41.70 $34.50 $0.33 -16.5% 5.5%
NUS $44.56 $43.55 $0.35 -1.5% 5.5%
Totals 3.6% 5.5%
As a note, the stocks not picked by Mr Random are up 4.7% (before dividends). So better than me, but probably still trailing market a bit.  Anyway, this is a marathon, not a sprint.  So we will judge this new approach in a few years, not a single quarter.

Other Stuff

GNW continues to be my largest holding and continues to struggle (though recall I sold about 25% of my position a couple weeks ago).  Yesterday was a bad news is good news day as the stock went up 7.5% with this headline to start the day:


I have to admit being at a bit of a loss as to why the stock popped 7.5%.  I suggest that means the market was expecting worse than "under review". I frankly would be surprised if AM Best does not downgrade GNW.

Well, I think that is enough for now.  I wish you and yours a happy holiday season.