Sunday, June 25, 2017

Top 200 List & Random Thoughts

Top 200 List & Random Thoughts

Beautiful Sunday morning here in Southern New England.  Sometimes I think when I retire I would move to a less expensive area, but mornings like this (59 degrees with a perfect sunrise through the tall trees off my back deck) make me want to stay.

I have one week to go on my June 30th monthly tracking portfolio (this is the 50 stocks from the official screen over 100m) and it is looking like a nice winner.  It is up 23% and is leading benchmark by 6 points.  Value stocks seem to be coming back in vogue.  It has 15 stocks that are up by 50% or more - I have enjoyed a few of those: CPLA, ILG, HPQ and WNC.  Then just three stocks down by 40% or more (DHX, FIT and WILN).

I was thinking the other day about how to know if the market is nearing a downturn/crash/correction.  I do read Decision Moose, but he has been just so-so lately in his results.  I have a trial subscription to Yardeni Research.  He has a very good track record.  Here is a link to recent publication (High Frequency Indicators - Yardeni Research).

Even further - what to do to protect?  I already have a large cash component, is that enough?  Should I put a chunk of it in treasuries as they will spike in a crash?  Should I buy a levered S&P bear fund (like SDS)?  Or I saw a way to use S&P puts to essentially buy insurance against a 30% crash. I really do not what is the best option. I may have to call a friend or use a mobile shout out.

As I mentioned, I have one week left of my July 1st tranche.  I will be buying my 5 new stocks (with a 40% bump in cash) a week from Monday.  Here are the choices if I were buying today:

HRB
BKE
CSCO
DIN
GILD
GME
HPQ
OMC
PBI
SYNT

I know, the list really does not change much quarter to quarter. I already own all of these but DIN.  I do retain the right to throw one name out before random number generator - but I will likely just keep them all in (despite being bearish on retail).  GILD would actually be the best candidate to toss as it has become out-sized position for me.  VIAB is very close to returning to the list - despite their 50% dividend reduction last summer.

Top 200 List

As my readers may know, I regularly create my own top 200 list.  I worked with some smart people on the Yahoo Groups MFI board and created a spreadsheet that does a very good job matching the metrics of the book and the official website (which in the early days posted calculated earnings yield and ROIC).

My list is ranked and shows dividend yield (per the unreliable Yahoo Finance).  It also has more stocks as I do not necessarily throw out other countries and I have some financial-type stocks (such as Humana) that the official list excludes.

But keep in mind that I am just a single person with a spreadsheet - so please do your own analysis before making investment decisions.

Hmm, Yahoo Finance is being more finicky than usual.  This list may be a bit incomplete.  I have about 3000 stocks in my universe and it crashed at 2400.  I do not have the patience (on this beautiful Sunday) to fix right now.  It also refuse to give me dividend yields (probably I hurt Yahoo Finances' feeling).  But eyeballing the list, HRB is the only stock that really seems to be MIA.


Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC
NHTC 1  28.92   325  27% 4747%
RCM 2  3.75   379  66% 967%
VVUS 3  1.22   129  60% 943%
AVDL 4  10.69   458  20% 1948%
AGX 5  60.70   957  17% 825%
NTIP 6  3.95   104  29% 335%
IDCC 7  81.25   2,943  18% 461%
GILD 8  70.52   93,086  16% 598%
YRD 9  24.55   1,483  18% 417%
AGTC 10  5.45   99  132% 264%
MNKD 11  1.51   145  26% 233%
CALL 12  6.90   111  14% 381%
PDLI 13  2.54   417  11% 3237%
UTHR 14  131.59   6,040  19% 195%
AMAG 15  18.35   631  12% 616%
RILY 16  17.50   343  17% 187%
TRNC 17  13.38   486  17% 182%
AVID 18  5.05   206  14% 202%
BPT 19  20.75   444  10% 21810%
ANTM 20  190.17   51,422  11% 295%
NSR 21  33.35   1,902  14% 199%
VEC 22  30.19   334  13% 200%
DHX 23  2.95   142  14% 166%
TGNA 24  14.55   3,166  13% 171%
LFVN 25  4.22   60  19% 126%
MSGN 26  22.00   1,664  11% 232%
SCMP 27  10.85   674  12% 168%
CHKE 28  7.50   87  9% 906%
HWAY 29  23.70   961  9% 1275%
CSCO 30  32.09   161,894  10% 380%
SYNT 31  16.51   1,384  14% 124%
ESRX 32  65.22   39,465  9% 405%
DLX 33  69.07   3,364  9% 454%
BEVFF 34  1.97   209  9% 2836%
TDC 35  29.76   3,881  10% 242%
GME 36  20.65   2,094  21% 88%
MPAA 37  28.32   551  10% 162%
AOBC 38  23.70   1,354  15% 94%
SQBG 39  3.88   242  9% 267%
HPQ 40  17.80   30,420  10% 214%
UIS 41  12.60   633  17% 88%
WU 42  19.17   9,267  9% 516%
TARO 43  116.06   4,708  16% 88%
VIAB 44  34.11   13,627  10% 140%
PBI 45  15.08   2,818  11% 122%
MEET 46  4.78   316  9% 276%
HPE 47  16.85   27,937  16% 85%
JMEI 48  2.39   359  749% 71%
FRAN 49  10.50   390  18% 73%
WCG 50  183.28   8,216  9% 226%
VIA 51  39.15   15,640  10% 140%
AMCX 52  53.93   3,708  12% 89%
USNA 53  64.55   1,612  10% 137%
MCFT 54  18.67   348  9% 255%
GHC 55  598.50   3,333  10% 117%
DISCK 56  25.06   14,735  9% 159%
DIN 57  43.46   771  10% 105%
PRSC 58  50.47   695  9% 146%
UEPS 59  9.75   525  29% 63%
CXRX 60  1.30   66  8% 1220%
MIK 61  18.00   3,427  12% 85%
DISCA 62  25.79   15,165  9% 159%
CBI 63  14.00   1,419  11% 87%
BKE 64  16.80   812  26% 63%
FOX 65  26.93   49,901  10% 114%
LEE 66  1.90   105  14% 74%
FOXA 67  27.19   50,383  10% 114%
FUJHY 68  16.33   25,050  20% 62%
TNH 69  86.31   1,597  14% 70%
NLS 70  18.35   571  9% 159%
HLF 71  74.03   6,418  9% 165%
HUM 72  238.42   35,494  9% 177%
WNC 73  21.65   1,372  13% 70%
BBY 74  55.18   17,382  12% 78%
RHI 75  47.46   6,000  10% 105%
GNTX 76  18.40   5,363  11% 80%
PCO 77  6.71   177  22% 57%
NCMI 78  7.47   451  8% 176%
MDP 79  57.00   2,597  9% 119%
RGR 80  66.60   1,225  11% 78%
MED 81  41.48   498  8% 171%
PNLYY 82  4.59   2,028  14% 63%
OMC 83  82.37   19,481  8% 284%
ETM 84  10.25   399  11% 80%
PMD 85  22.95   127  10% 85%
CVS 86  77.41   80,119  10% 88%
LEA 87  138.02   9,707  14% 61%
CJREF 88  9.91   1,984  9% 150%
DNB 89  102.24   3,793  7% 945%
GPP 90  18.30   582  9% 118%
MBUU 91  25.00   449  8% 176%
TIME 92  13.60   1,355  10% 83%
FL 93  48.03   6,369  18% 53%
QCOM 94  56.91   84,739  8% 226%
TZOO 95  10.60   141  8% 174%
CPLA 96  85.90   1,025  8% 202%
AMGN 97  172.50   127,823  8% 160%
SGU 98  10.59   592  10% 81%
KLAC 99  97.95   15,451  8% 151%
AMN 100  37.50   1,857  9% 90%
KORS 101  35.34   5,719  12% 61%
CKHUY 102  12.71   49,053  14% 56%
BIIB 103  280.32   60,521  8% 128%
CSRA 104  31.91   5,261  9% 113%
NATH 105  64.80   273  8% 287%
WSTC 106  23.21   1,978  9% 96%
SIMO 107  50.24   1,807  9% 90%
MAN 108  106.58   7,290  10% 69%
HSII 109  22.30   429  10% 68%
FFIV 110  129.99   8,453  7% 456%
BOJA 111  15.85   612  8% 123%
IPG 112  24.25   9,683  8% 150%
WIT 113  5.09   12,307  14% 52%
ALOT 114  13.35   102  7% 3021%
MCK 115  166.96   35,729  8% 147%
SNI 116  67.40   8,812  9% 80%
SP 117  29.30   658  8% 219%
ODP 118  5.60   2,979  14% 51%
AWRE 119  5.15   115  8% 119%
HMTV 120  11.90   485  8% 103%
NCIT 121  20.40   271  8% 102%
SPLS 122  9.29   6,104  14% 49%
MLHR 123  29.40   1,775  10% 62%
CSGS 124  41.10   1,340  9% 92%
ACIA 125  44.62   1,859  8% 106%
BAH 126  32.22   4,853  8% 158%
PFNX 127  4.44   104  9% 76%
GPS 128  21.97   8,788  16% 46%
RECN 129  13.60   416  10% 62%
SBH 130  19.13   2,704  11% 54%
CA 131  34.98   14,517  7% 487%
GIB 132  51.22   15,551  7% 248%
JNPR 133  28.29   10,977  9% 88%
DL 134  9.47   311  8% 166%
MGLN 135  72.65   1,746  10% 68%
EGRX 136  81.68   1,320  8% 154%
LB 137  53.46   15,450  10% 66%
CSVI 138  46.75   654  8% 111%
CLCT 139  26.26   225  7% 510%
DST 140  62.21   1,991  11% 55%
CNC 141  84.15   14,797  7% 171%
SHI 142  51.44   5,560  20% 42%
ICON 143  6.62   377  12% 50%
BGSF 144  18.07   161  9% 84%
HCKT 145  15.10   488  8% 144%
APEI 146  23.25   379  16% 44%
AAPL 147  146.28   769,680  7% 218%
DFIN 148  22.56   740  10% 64%
TJX 149  69.27   45,358  9% 80%
EBF 150  17.55   447  11% 51%
ROST 151  56.29   21,938  9% 79%
KLIC 152  20.31   1,468  11% 50%
TPX 153  49.86   2,722  9% 73%
TWX 154  99.70   78,693  8% 115%
MD 155  59.97   5,586  7% 153%
HLT 156  65.40   21,647  7% 550%
TSQ 157  9.77   180  11% 51%
SCS 158  13.65   1,611  13% 46%
SPOK 159  17.40   358  8% 141%
ABBV 160  72.64   116,442  7% 288%
AEO 161  11.53   2,095  18% 40%
SBGI 162  33.40   3,129  10% 62%
INFY 163  14.85   33,957  9% 72%
JEC 164  52.81   6,428  9% 72%
VVV 165  23.90   4,900  8% 82%
EME 166  65.62   3,945  8% 83%
THO 167  107.94   5,696  9% 69%
AMWD 168  95.05   1,558  8% 91%
PBT 169  8.74   407  6% 13114%
LCI 170  19.95   753  14% 42%
CRUS 171  66.01   4,427  8% 93%
SCLN 172  10.95   580  9% 70%
KBAL 173  16.35   615  9% 61%
AVP 174  3.48   1,526  11% 48%
CECE 175  9.34   323  9% 58%
ABC 176  95.82   21,197  8% 114%
TUP 177  70.94   3,618  8% 93%
SERV 178  39.94   5,432  7% 258%
ENR 179  49.77   3,126  8% 84%
HSNI 180  31.85   1,682  10% 47%
BBBY 181  29.65   4,328  21% 36%
SAIC 182  70.82   3,208  7% 176%
EGOV 183  20.00   1,321  7% 403%
PLPM 184  3.33   171  6% 635%
ROIAK 185  2.55   122  8% 86%
CYOU 186  39.07   2,088  10% 48%
TPB 187  16.30   320  8% 68%
ROIA 188  2.75   132  8% 86%
BBSI 189  57.47   417  7% 116%
PLUS 190  74.35   1,040  9% 57%
CBS 191  63.61   26,462  8% 83%
GTN 192  13.35   968  9% 55%
KNL 193  19.80   978  10% 45%
ATTO 194  10.90   806  10% 46%
DG 195  69.75   19,196  9% 52%
BAK 196  19.36   3,328  28% 33%
MMS 197  63.15   4,165  8% 90%
GURE 198  1.61   75  3170% 32%
NCR 199  38.64   4,745  8% 86%
RPXC 200  13.73   677  6% 615%