Saturday, August 01, 2015

Weekend Update From Big D

Weekend Update

Good morning.  I am coming to you from Dallas this morning as we begin our summer vacation. After a brief stop here to see family, we're heading to California.  It was a week heavy in earnings.  Yesterday it was FLR & NSU.  They were both disappointing and took a pretty hard hit, off 8 and 7%.

Earlier in the week it was NHTC (very strong, witnessed big short squeeze),  DEPO (I thought they were quite promising), BAH (quite good), IPCM (very good), MNDO (not the disaster the stock price had suggested), PPC (I thought they were quite good) and RGR (very good),.

So net net, I went from being up 5.3% to up 8.3% for the year as it was certainly more good news than bad news.

MFI Select

Great week here, up about 5% on the strong earnings (NHTC really helped).

8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.42 $0.80 19.8% 9.5%
AGX $36.71 $38.88 $0.70 7.8% 9.5%
ITRN $21.32 $25.65 $0.87 24.4% 9.5%
BRCD $9.34 $10.26 $0.15 11.5% 9.5%
CBI $58.25 $53.14 $0.21 -8.4% 9.5%
Totals 11.0% 9.5%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $46.75 $0.63 -26.9% 5.0%
IPCM $38.45 $55.45 $0.00 44.2% 5.0%
VIAB $72.29 $57.00 $1.06 -19.7% 5.0%
NHTC $12.19 $30.30 $0.06 149.1% 5.0%
AWRE $4.40 $3.32 $0.00 -24.5% 5.0%
Totals 24.4% 5.0%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $23.20 $0.00 -17.1% 6.5%
QCOM $62.73 $64.39 $0.90 4.1% 6.5%
VIAB $63.91 $57.00 $0.73 -9.7% 6.5%
UIS $22.03 $15.87 $0.00 -28.0% 6.5%
NHTC $12.44 $30.30 $0.05 144.0% 6.5%
Totals 18.7% 6.5%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $53.14 $0.07 5.6% 1.2%
PSDV $4.12 $4.06 $0.00 -1.6% 1.2%
TSRA $38.94 $34.66 $0.20 -10.5% 1.2%
KORS $62.24 $41.99 $0.00 -32.5% 1.2%
DEPO $23.50 $31.50 $0.00 34.0% 1.2%
Totals -1.0% 1.2%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 11.0% 24.4% 18.7% -1.0% 13.4%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 19.1%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 79.1% 104.3% 129.4% 55.8% 92.1%
Current Balance      44,767       51,063     57,346      38,942    192,117
R3K Current Tranche 9.5% 5.0% 6.5% 1.2% 5.6%
R3K Overall Gain 59.7% 64.3% 45.6% 35.8% 51.4%
R3K Balance      39,921       41,075     36,412      33,961    151,369
Annualized IRR 21.7% 30.1% 39.4% 21.9% 28.5%

I think my May portfolio is making a good comeback, now just down 1%. It was down over 10% a month ago.

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%      186,655         149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%      202,897         151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%      211,437         148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%      192,117         151,369
Current 40.75%      192,117         151,369

MFI Select

Not quite as an exciting week here, the NSU drop yesterday hurt.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $27.73 $0.37 19.5% 9.0%
BKE $45.55 $44.23 $3.68 5.2% 9.0%
CA $27.87 $29.14 $0.75 7.2% 9.0%
GME $41.70 $45.85 $1.05 12.5% 9.0%
NUS $44.56 $39.65 $1.05 -8.7% 9.0%
Totals 7.1% 9.0%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.14 $0.50 -3.9% 2.4%
CSCO $28.36 $28.42 $0.61 2.4% 2.4%
RGR $34.81 $60.02 $0.49 73.8% 2.4%
GME $34.21 $45.85 $0.72 36.1% 2.4%
IQNT $19.87 $18.20 $0.30 -6.9% 2.4%
Totals 20.3% 2.4%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $33.29 $0.20 4.7% 1.2%
GME $37.69 $45.85 $0.36 22.6% 1.2%
KING $15.85 $15.53 $0.00 -2.0% 1.2%
NSU $3.43 $3.20 $0.04 -5.5% 1.2%
PPC $22.65 $21.64 $0.00 -4.5% 1.2%
Totals 3.1% 1.2%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $44.23 $0.23 -4.3% 1.2%
CA $29.34 $29.14 $0.00 -0.7% 1.2%
MSFT $44.42 $46.70 $0.00 5.1% 1.2%
QCOM $62.95 $64.39 $0.00 2.3% 1.2%
VIAB $64.75 $57.00 $0.00 -12.0% 1.2%
Totals -1.9% 1.2%

Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment    249,820     249,939   250,180    249,728      999,667
Current Tranche 7.1% 20.3% 3.1% -1.9% 7.1%
Previous Tranche 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tranche -2 0.0%              -              -               -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 7.1% 20.3% 3.1% -1.9% 7.1%
Current Balance    267,630     300,696   257,824    244,967   1,071,117
R3K Current Tranche 9.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 3.4%
R3K Overall Gain 9.0% 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 3.4%
R3K Balance    272,245     256,006   253,076    252,720   1,034,047
Annualized IRR 8.6% 37.2% 9.3% -19.6% 16.0%
You can see the June 30th tranche is struggling.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000         100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288         100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375         101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664         100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281           99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073         102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781         101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%      107,859         102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%      108,213         103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%      106,423         101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%      107,112         103,404
Current 3.71%      107,112         103,404

That is it for now.