Saturday, August 23, 2014

August 23rd Addendum - Discretionary Portfolio

When I went back and re-read my blog, I saw the discretionary portfolio was off in a few spots. I had not subtracted GTAT shares and somewhere along the way I had missed 10,000 RIOM shares getting allocated to that portfolio. Finally I fixed the TSL for capping at $13.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AGX             190       36.71               38.34 4.4% 1.7% 2.7%
BAC-WTA       12,000         6.05                 7.13 17.8% 13.3% 4.5%
GNW       13,880       10.08               13.88 37.8% 23.6% 14.1%
GTAT       14,000         9.15               18.55 102.6% 11.3% 91.3%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               27.82 31.0% 21.0% 10.0%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.45 25.9% 16.4% 9.6%
RIOM       35,000         1.97                 2.71 37.4% 6.3% 31.1%
TLM         9,500       10.72               10.76 0.4% 1.1% -0.7%
TSL         4,000       12.58               14.45 14.9% 1.2% 13.8%
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 38.4% 12.2% 26.2%
Closed 2.5% 1.2% 1.3%
Combined 7.0% 2.5% 4.4%

Weekend Update - August 23rd, 2014

Weekend Update

Muggy late summer morning here in New England today.  This week continued one of the best months I think I have ever had in investing (I could go back and look as I have records back to 2002, but am too lazy).  I am up 10.25% in August.  I look at that and wonder if I have made a mistake somehow.

Double Check

I looked stock by stock and it seems good. 10.25% (with my multiplier) is a gain of $215,000.

Index Stock 7/31/2014 Current Monthly Change $ Gain
1 GTAT         13.84         18.15 31.1%          60,340
2 GNW         13.10         13.88 6.0%          10,826
3 BBEP         21.16         22.05 4.2%            5,085
4 AOD           8.68            8.82 1.6%            1,999
5 TLM         10.45         10.76 3.0%            2,945
6 KLIC         13.62         14.45 6.1%            5,810
7 RIOM           2.32            2.71 16.8%          13,650
8 ATVI         22.38         23.13 3.4%            3,017
9 GPS         40.11         45.43 13.3%          10,640
10 BAC-WTA           6.54            7.13 9.0%            7,079
11 NTC         12.42         12.53 0.9%               746
12 CSQ         11.60         12.05 3.9%            3,173
13 FSC           9.67            9.71 0.4%               339
14 TPVG         15.23         15.55 2.1%            1,641
15 TGONF         10.50         11.25 7.1%            5,250
16 TNH      145.00       151.74 4.6%            3,370
17 CSCO         25.23         24.65 -2.3%           (1,713)
18 TCMCF         14.00         14.05 0.4%               245
19 NADL           9.75         10.26 5.2%            3,247
20 RPXC         15.60         15.24 -2.3%           (1,529)
21 AVG         17.00         18.40 8.2%            4,578
22 AGX         33.90         38.34 13.1%            6,572
23 SNDK         91.71         98.00 6.9%            3,579
24 TSL         11.21         13.00 16.0%            7,160
25 SYNA         72.23         80.17 11.0%            4,939
26 KLAC         71.49         74.98 4.9%            2,275
27 TIME         24.10         23.92 -0.7%              (360)
28 WNR         40.96         46.76 14.2%            5,861
29 HIG-WT         25.75         27.82 8.0%            3,419
30 CBI         58.32         63.13 8.2%            3,295
31 BRCD           9.33            9.74 4.4%            1,756
32 ITRN         21.47         21.84 1.7%               695
33 NSR         27.86         29.36 5.4%            1,740
34 CA         28.88         28.24 -2.2%              (648)
35 O         43.05         45.09 4.7%            1,230
36 RCII         23.94         26.26 9.7%            2,415
37 OIBAX           6.14            6.13 -0.2%                (42)
38 EDV      106.29       110.81 4.3%               629
39 Overall 10.3%         185,253

So stock by stock I get $185,000. I know this isn't really right as I am using my current holdings. So GTAT would be almost $20,000 as it doesn't reflect shares I sold this week. It also excludes dividends and stocks that I may have bought and sold during the month. But in overall magnitude, this seems to support the $215,000 monthly figure. Whoa.

MFI Portfolio

Just like everything, this has exploded in August.  If you assume my initial investment in MFI was 4 tranches of $25,000 - implying 100,000 total, I was at $167,000 on August 1st and am now at $176,000. Actually, when I look at that, they look like slackers, just up 5.3% for the month (R3K is up a solid 3.3% for the month).  

For the week, CBI was up 8.4%, BRCD and AGX were both up about 4.3%. Even long time slacker RCII was up 5.9%.

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $18.40 $0.00 6.9% 11.7%
ATVI $17.71 $23.13 $0.20 31.7% 11.7%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 11.7%
RPXC $17.04 $15.24 $0.00 -10.6% 11.7%
SYNA $48.01 $80.17 $0.00 67.0% 11.7%
Totals 25.8% 11.7%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $23.13 $0.20 36.2% 11.7%
KLAC $61.47 $74.98 $1.40 24.3% 11.7%
RPXC $16.22 $15.24 $0.00 -6.0% 11.7%
SNDK $69.55 $98.00 $0.53 41.7% 11.7%
WNR $39.11 $46.76 $0.78 21.6% 11.7%
Totals 23.5% 11.7%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $18.40 $0.00 -6.0% 6.3%
CA $29.54 $28.24 $0.50 -2.7% 6.3%
CSCO $22.79 $24.65 $0.19 9.0% 6.3%
NSR $25.82 $29.36 $0.00 13.7% 6.3%
RCII $28.78 $26.26 $0.23 -8.0% 6.3%
Totals 1.2% 6.3%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $24.65 $0.00 1.0% 1.7%
AGX $36.71 $38.34 $0.00 4.4% 1.7%
ITRN $21.32 $21.84 $0.00 2.4% 1.7%
BRCD $9.34 $9.74 $0.00 4.3% 1.7%
CBI $58.25 $63.13 $0.00 8.4% 1.7%
Totals 4.1% 1.7%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 4.1% 25.8% 23.5% 1.2% 13.4%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 55.2%
Tranche -2 14.1%              -              -               -   3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 68.0% 80.9% 120.2% 34.6% 75.9%
Current Balance      41,989       45,224     55,046      33,659    175,918
R3K Current Tranche 19.4% 52.6% 11.7% 6.3% 22.5%
R3K Overall Gain 45.9% 52.6% 35.3% 26.4% 40.7%
R3K Balance      37,104       38,156     33,827      31,588    140,674
Annualized IRR 29.2% 39.8% 66.0% 25.7% 41.4%

(geek footnote - I did catch an error in R3K balance for the May tranche this week, so it went up by 6%).

You can see the newest tranche is off to a great 4.1% start.  Even my May tranche, which has been trailing pretty much since day 1 has moved back in the black and closed a little ground.

Discretionary Portfolio

This portfolio has really exploded.  The GTAT move has really helped, and everything else is clicking (or should I say KLICking?) as well - my warrants, TSL, RIOM, GNW.  I did make a change to the way I am considering the money I get for selling calls.  Before I had deducted the call premium from my purchase price.  So with TSL I had a $12.58 purchase price and then turned around and sold calls for $1.45.  I lowered my purchase price to $11.13 (12.58-1.45). While this is a common approach, I think it can be a bit deceiving on percentage gains, especially if you are able to do it on the same security multiple times. Theoretically, your purchase price could go below zero. So I am treating it as a dividend. Dollar wise you get to the same place, but by treating as a dividend, I am essentially adding it to the current price as opposed to subtracting from purchase price.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AGX             190       36.71               38.34 4.4% 1.7% 2.7%
BAC-WTA       12,000         6.05                 7.13 17.8% 13.3% 4.5%
GNW       13,880       10.08               13.88 37.8% 23.6% 14.1%
GTAT       18,000       10.80               18.46 70.9% 7.8% 63.1%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               27.82 31.0% 21.0% 10.0%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.45 25.9% 16.4% 9.6%
RIOM       25,000         2.01                 2.71 34.5% 6.4% 28.1%
TLM         9,500       10.72               10.76 0.4% 1.1% -0.7%
TSL         4,000       12.58               14.76 17.4% 1.2% 16.2%
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 35.8% 11.4% 24.4%
Closed 2.3% 1.2% 1.2%
Combined 6.8% 2.5% 4.3%
So as I mentioned, the GTAT price is actually increased by the call premium I received as is TSL.  TSL is still wrong (it needs to be capped at 14.45 as the strike price is $13, but I'll fix that next week). So of my discretionary picks, TLM is right now the only one really trailing the R3K.  And they had some interesting option activity yesterday - that caused me to actually buy some call options on them which I will mention below.

Dividend Stocks

Wow, things are actually worked well here as well.  GPS had a great pop yesterday. TGONF has actually been moving up very nicely recently (recall I have discussed their gap between stock price and NAV). I bought TCMCF this week, which I believe will be a solid contributor as they have been mis-priced.

Then NADL inked a big deal, which in part caused their stock price to go up.  You know, overall one thing helping the portfolio is the fact that treasury yields keep dropping.  That makes dividend stocks more valuable, as many of my stocks kind of act like bonds.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,186         8.03          8.82               11,717.83 20.1% 22.6% -2.5%
BBEP          5,713       16.74        22.05               10,650.92 42.9% 16.2% 26.7%
CSQ          7,001         8.72        12.05               14,277.43 61.7% 57.1% 4.6%
FSC          8,395         9.57          9.71                 3,767.52 6.2% 6.4% -0.2%
GPS          2,000       40.55        45.43                     440.00 12.6% 5.4% 7.2%
NADL          6,366         9.60        10.26                 1,200.00 8.8% 3.8% 5.0%
NTC          6,784       12.02        12.53                 2,671.53 7.6% 7.1% 0.4%
O              600       21.02        45.09                 9,460.47 189.5% 117.9% 71.6%
OIBAX          4,147         5.00          6.13                 8,261.12 62.4% 128.2% -65.8%
TCMCF          4,903       13.89        14.05                              -   1.2% 0.1% 1.1%
TGONF          7,000       10.27        11.25                 3,452.50 14.3% 20.9% -6.5%
TIME          2,000       22.89        23.92                              -   4.5% 1.5% 3.0%
TNH              500    148.10      151.74                 1,555.00 4.6% 3.7% 0.8%
TPVG          5,128       15.54        15.55                 1,958.70 2.5% 4.6% -2.1%
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                     69,413 19.4% 16.6% 2.8%
Closed 12.0% 10.9% 1.1%
Combined 13.3% 11.9% 1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 18.2%
2014 Gain 9.3%
Options

As I mentioned, I did get the ability this week to trade options in my fidelity account. And while I do not mean to go crazy, and I will be using relatively small dollar amounts, I did buy two call options this week (GNW and TLM).  Then I have had for some time call options I sold on GTAT (though I bought hem back) and TSL.  I want to keep good records on the options as they can be "weapons of mass destruction" to a portfolio.  If they are not working for me, I will pull back. My longer term plan is to use call options should the market really crash - though make sure they are longer duration.  Then I may sell some call options if I have a stock that I think doesn't have that much upside (though if I have a stock like that, I am more inclined to sell it).

Open Date Ticker Type Shares  Open Price   Current Price   Strike  Expiration  Gain 
3/28/14 GTAT Sell     3,000            2.40          0.55    22.00 9/20/14        5,550
6/18/14 TSL Sell     4,000            1.45             -      13.00 9/20/14        5,800
8/21/14 GNW Buy   10,000            1.24          1.24    17.00 1/15/16             -  
8/22/14 TLM Buy   10,000            0.55          0.70    11.00 10/18/14        1,500
Total                  12,850
So as I mentioned, the options I sell, I will track as if the amount I get as dividends and they will also be in my normal portfolios (like discretionary). But if I buy a call options, it will only show up here.

Invest by Portfolio

I have mentioned many times here that I do believe cash in your investment portfolio is essential. I try to keep between 15 and 30% of my total investments in cash. I do not want to use margin and I want to have cash in event an extraordinary opportunity comes around.  Here is where I currently stand:

Portfolio Proportion
Dividend 27.1%
Mfi 20.3%
Discretionary 25.1%
Cash 27.5%
I was surprised to see MFI so low, so I will work in the next year to bring that up. Conceptually it seems to me that my main three portfolios should all be relatively the same size. Though I need to think about that and may be something that changes as I age (in retirement perhaps a greater proportion in dividend/income securities).

With the buying of TCMCF, my income is definitely going up, here is projected annual income from dividend portfolio (with my multiple):

 Stock   Shares   Ann Dividend / Share   Yield   Projected Dividend   Worth 
 AOD         14,186         0.68 7.7%                       9,618        125,124
 BBEP           5,713         2.01 9.1%                     11,484        125,976
 CSQ           7,001         1.00 8.3%                       7,001           84,367
 FSC           8,395         1.10 11.3%                       9,235           81,517
 GPS           2,000         0.88 1.9%                       1,760           90,860
 NADL           6,366         0.96 9.4%                       6,111           65,316
 NTC           6,784         0.68 5.5%                       4,640           85,003
 O               600         2.17 4.8%                       1,303           27,074
 OIBAX           4,147         0.29 4.7%                       1,203           25,420
 TCMCF           4,903         1.60 11.4%                       7,845           68,887
 TGONF           7,000         0.62 5.5%                       4,340           78,750
 TIME           2,000         0.80 3.3%                       1,600           47,840
 TNH               500       12.04 7.9%                       6,020           75,870
 TPVG           5,128         1.20 7.7%                       6,154           79,742
              
              
              
              
              
              
 Total  7.4%                     78,314     1,061,746

Ok, I think that is a wrap.  Have a great weekend everyone.