Sunday, January 31, 2010

New Mechanical Stock - Jan 28 2010

Kind of weird, the MFI website wasn't updated this weekend. They seem to be a little less on the ball of late. Hope that isn't a trend. My "Cruncher" really isn't ready to go live. So I ended up using Thursday's run and closing pricing for my Mechanical portfolio. With that approach, there was one new stock added (and it probably will drop off this week): NATH. While I love their hot dogs and am a fan of the stock (I owned it in the past once), it is a very low volume stock and even buying a relatively small amount is difficult. So I'll take a pass.

I don't think I commented on the most excellent earnings last week by RTN (Raytheon Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2009 Results; Reaffirms Outlook for Continued Growth in 2010). I really like having some of these big cap stocks in my mix. Sure they're up "just" 17%, but it is (in my mind) a 17% that I am not likely to have to give back. They are super solid earnings, cash flows and dividends. A classic stock that MFI identified as the market going "nuts" on 10/30 when they hit the top 30 list at 45.28. Another one is Pfizer, which hit the top 50 list at 6/5/09 at 14.51 and is up about 30%.

I think that is why my mechanical portfolios are working better than other approaches as it identifies some really quality stocks when they bottom out... so you get them cheap. Here is the top 30 inforce list right now:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
COH 2/14/09 13.97 35.27 - 82.76 2.18 152.5% 34.4% 118.1%
DELL 2/21/09 8.41 13.22 - 77.42 2.18 57.2% 43.7% 13.5%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.78 - 77.42 2.18 37.0% 43.7% -6.7%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 99.50 - 73.93 2.18 141.1% 50.5% 90.6%
FWLT 2/28/09 15.04 28.89 - 73.93 2.18 92.1% 50.5% 41.6%
HCKT 2/28/09 2.56 2.65 - 73.93 2.18 3.5% 50.5% -46.9%
MWW 2/28/09 6.59 15.59 - 73.93 2.18 136.6% 50.5% 86.1%
PTIE 2/28/09 4.53 5.34 - 73.93 2.18 17.9% 50.5% -32.6%
TRLG 2/28/09 10.22 19.36 - 73.93 2.18 89.4% 50.5% 39.0%
qlti 3/6/09 1.41 4.64 - 68.92 2.18 229.1% 61.4% 167.7%
exbd 3/6/09 12.96 23.64 0.74 68.92 2.18 88.1% 61.4% 26.7%
FIX 3/13/09 9.73 11.86
76.09 2.18 21.9% 46.2% -24.3%
DBTK 3/13/09 6.65 10.39 - 76.09 2.18 56.2% 46.2% 10.1%
LOOP 3/13/09 5.77 9.41 - 76.09 2.18 63.1% 46.2% 16.9%
PRO 3/27/09 4.29 8.19 - 81.61 1.62 90.9% 35.6% 55.3%
ACN 4/9/09 27.71 41.19 - 85.81 1.62 48.6% 29.0% 19.7%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.12 - 87.08 1.62 5.0% 27.1% -22.1%
TSRA 5/1/09 14.52 17.25 - 87.89 1.62 18.8% 25.9% -7.1%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 18.09 - 87.89 1.62 -39.4% 25.9% -65.3%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 10.00 - 87.89 1.62 14.7% 25.9% -11.2%
TYPE 5/1/09 3.80 9.12 - 87.89 1.62 140.0% 25.9% 114.1%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 4.71 - 87.89 1.62 18.3% 25.9% -7.6%
INT 5/8/09 41.90 48.78 - 92.98 1.62 16.4% 19.0% -2.6%
IPHS 5/15/09 15.03 20.18 - 88.71 1.62 34.3% 24.8% 9.5%
GNI 5/29/09 86.75 90.40 3.60 92.53 1.62 8.4% 19.6% -11.3%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 9.27 - 92.53 1.62 17.3% 19.6% -2.3%
FRX 6/5/09 23.66 29.47 - 94.55 1.62 24.6% 17.1% 7.5%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 4.84 - 95.08 1.62 86.2% 16.4% 69.7%
VM 6/11/09 4.24 5.50 - 95.08 1.62 29.7% 16.4% 13.3%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 14.65 - 92.04 0.51 -12.5% 19.0% -31.5%
MTXX 7/2/09 5.77 4.70 - 91.84 0.51 -18.5% 19.3% -37.8%
JTX 7/2/09 5.74 2.79 - 91.84 0.51 -51.4% 19.3% -70.7%
GIGM 7/24/09 4.98 2.76 - 98.06 0.51 -44.6% 11.7% -56.3%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 20.72 - 98.81 0.51 48.5% 10.9% 37.6%
BR 7/31/09 17.27 21.86 0.28 98.81 0.51 28.2% 10.9% 17.3%
LO 7/31/09 73.72 76.73 - 98.81 0.51 4.1% 10.9% -6.8%
ITWO 8/7/09 14.36 19.73 - 101.20 0.51 37.4% 8.3% 29.1%
BKE 8/14/09 26.54 31.50 2.00 100.79 0.51 26.2% 8.7% 17.5%
GTLS 8/14/09 20.73 16.46 - 100.79 0.51 -20.6% 8.7% -29.3%
PRIM 8/14/09 6.95 8.11 0.05 100.79 0.51 17.4% 8.7% 8.7%
SEPR 8/14/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 8.7% 18.2%
PVSW 8/14/09 5.00 5.15 - 100.79 0.51 3.0% 8.7% -5.7%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 5.88 - 102.96 0.51 15.3% 6.4% 8.9%
cytk 8/28/09 3.04 3.04 - 103.38 0.51 0.0% 6.0% -6.0%
jcom 8/28/09 22.14 20.87 - 103.38 0.51 -5.7% 6.0% -11.7%
AMED 9/4/09 35.00 57.07 - 102.06 0.51 63.1% 7.4% 55.7%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 3.88 - 106.72 0.51 4.3% 2.7% 1.6%
MHP 9/25/09 23.67 35.44 0.23 104.45 0.59 50.7% 5.0% 45.7%
AGX 10/16/09 12.50 14.50 - 108.89 0.59 16.0% 0.7% 15.3%
BBND 10/30/09 3.70 3.04 - 103.56 0.59 -17.8% 5.9% -23.7%
FLR 10/30/09 44.42 45.96 - 103.56 0.59 3.5% 5.9% -2.4%
RGR 10/30/09 10.62 10.70 - 103.56 0.59 0.8% 5.9% -5.1%
RTN 10/30/09 45.28 52.96 0.31 103.56 0.59 17.6% 5.9% 11.8%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 28.41 - 103.56 0.59 3.6% 5.9% -2.3%
immu 11/6/09 3.61 3.28 - 107.13 0.59 -9.1% 2.4% -11.5%
cbst 11/6/09 17.60 20.61 - 107.13 0.59 17.1% 2.4% 14.7%
snta 11/6/09 3.20 4.34 - 107.13 0.59 35.6% 2.4% 33.3%
CNU 11/13/09 3.10 4.06 - 109.62 0.59 31.0% 0.0% 30.9%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 25.17 - 109.43 0.59 6.8% 0.2% 6.6%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.59 - 109.57 0.59 -0.6% 0.1% -0.7%
ARO 12/4/09 28.95 33.99 - 111.01 0.59 17.4% -1.2% 18.6%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 9.82 - 111.01 0.59 8.4% -1.2% 9.6%
SHE 12/31/09 5.15 6.80 - 111.44 - 32.0% -2.1% 34.2%
















Totals 22.2% 4.9% 17.3%
63.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 11.8% -10.8% 22.5%
S&P C

109.06

Open 32.3% 20.0% 12.3%

Friday, January 29, 2010

Where I am At After Almost 4 Years

I started my MFI portfolio 2/28/06, coming up on 4 years. Take a peek at my chart... sadly back underwater again.


Obviously a little tough skiing recently. At 1/8/10 I was actually up 5.4%, now I am down 3.8%. That is pushing 10% and I avoided a bit of additional pain by selling QXM around $3.70 a week ago and now they're down to $2.45 (whew).

I did buy a new stock yesterday, GXDX, which seems like a mini Quest Diagnostics (which I owned a couple years ago). They are a blowing and going company, it was surprising to see them on the list. You can see they had a temporary (I hope) fall from grace:

PRICES

DateOpenHighLowCloseVolumeAdj Close*
28-Jan-1030.2931.0530.2630.95374,40030.95
27-Jan-1030.1830.6129.8630.18379,60030.18
26-Jan-1030.7530.8929.1030.411,801,70030.41
25-Jan-1033.6434.0132.4132.60399,10032.60
22-Jan-1034.0734.5133.5033.56170,10033.56
21-Jan-1034.8135.0433.6634.16217,50034.16
20-Jan-1035.0035.2634.1234.90199,90034.90
19-Jan-1035.3935.7234.9735.06169,30035.06

But look at their guidance:

Performance Outlook

Recognizing the strength of our collection efforts and financial results in the third quarter, Genoptix expects revenues for the full-year 2009 of approximately $180 million with full-year gross margins of approximately 60%.

Operating margins for 2009 are expected to be in the mid- to high-twentieth percentile, with net income of approximately $29 million, up from prior estimates of approximately $25 million. Diluted EPS for the full-year 2009 is now expected to be approximately $1.60, increasing from a prior range of $1.40 to $1.45, on about 18.0 million shares. This assumes a tax rate of approximately 44%, down from initial estimations of 45%.

Based on continued infrastructure expansion and implementation of its strategic plan, the Company projects capital expenditures of $8.5 million for the full-year 2009, which includes approximately $4.5 million in maintenance capital. A planned laboratory expansion beginning this quarter is now expected to cost approximately $9.5 million, with approximately $4 million to be spent in 2009 and the remainder in the first half of 2010.

For 2010, revenues are expected to grow to approximately $235 million. The Company intends to provide more detailed guidance in February when reporting results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2009.

I mean look at the growth, 180m to 235m. They have an impeccable balance sheet. Here are their stats a couple of days ago when they came on the list:



gxdx
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 48.64
- Minority Interest - Income Account -
= Income for Calculation 48.64

Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.965

Share Price 30.18
+ Market Cap Calc 542.18
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities -
+ Long-Term Debt -

Cash and Short-Term Investments 137.79
- Excess Cash 137.79
= Enterprise Value 404.40






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 12.76
+ Receivables 23.53
+ Inventories -
+ Other Current Assests 7.49
+ Working Cash -
- Accounts Payable 9.51
- Current Liabilities - Other 8.98
= Invested Capital 25.29
Earnings Yield 12%
ROIC 192%

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

State of the Union

I rarely get on a soapbox here, but I was watching a bit of the Geithner show today and it just stunned me how Congress doesn't get it. It is almost scary. And with Obama giving his State of the Union address, I felt it was as good a time as any to toss in my two cents. So much so, that I actually just sent an email to all my elected officials.

The whole meltdown of last year has become a giant finger-pointing exercise and now people like Obama are trying to make political hay of Financial Institutions. Not two days after Brown won MA, and Obama is up there with Volcker with his bold bank tax, which screws the banks that were doing the right thing. In fact, in many cases it wasn't non investment banks screwing up, it was AIG, Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Freddie and Fannie Mae.

What really needs to happen is that we let free markets work. Insolvencies can happen and not bring markets to their knees so long as they are done in an organized fashion (think Washington Mutual or Merrill Lynch). The bailouts actually helped other Financial Institutions. I am sure that the day before Bear Stearns had to shut their doors, you could have bought their bonds for 20 cents on the dollar... guess what? They got 100 cents! Now if you buy bonds in a risky company, why should you get 100 cents on the dollar backed by taxpayers? Stunning. Same can be said for Citi, Wells Fargo etc... the bondholders were unscathed. They should have been forced to make concessions BEFORE the Fed and the Treasury stepped in. That only makes sense, but you never hear anything about that. Don't you think if Warren Buffett bailed out a company he'd force concessions from everyone? Bondholders, Stockholders may be even creditors and Unions? Think about what he got when he put 5 or 10b in GE and GS. Not only did he get a high interest rate (about 10%) but he got options to buy their stock in the next 10 years at a low price. Why shouldn't our govt demand onerous terms like that as well? And as voters, if our govt hands over our tax dollars that easily, do we have the right people in office?

Ok, I have vented and feel better. Here is a great link to read: A Blueprint for Financial Reform

Then, I was also a bit angry at JTX today, which is now down about 40% for me. They seem to keep getting hit for the same thing (
Jackson Hewitt plunge on lack of funds for loans). I have to think that under $3, if you believe they will survive, they are a steal. And finally CBPO shot up 15% today, recovering a chunk of the previous days 25% drop. I did add shares (not in my MFI portfolio) at the start of the day as they seemed way oversold.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Rumor Mill CBPO

Wow, CBPO got taken to the cleaners today... by a rumor. Checkout the chart for the day:

Basic ChartGet Basic Chart(s) for:


China Biologic Products, Inc. (NGM) Edit
Range:1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y Type:Bar | Line | CandleScale:Linear | LogSize:M | L
Compare:CBPO vs S&P Nasdaq Dow
Want more control over the chart? Try our Interactive Chart.
Chart for China Biologic Products, Inc. (CBPO)

Splits:none
Last Trade:8.71
Trade Time:4:00PM ET
Change:Down 3.05 (25.94%)
Prev Close:11.76
Open:11.56
Bid:8.61 x 500
Ask:8.85 x 100
1y Target Est:17.50
Day's Range:8.44 - 11.70
52wk Range:1.67 - 13.70
Volume:1,004,190
Avg Vol (3m):106,718
Market Cap:N/A
P/E (ttm):N/A
EPS (ttm):N/A
Div & Yield:N/A (N/A)
10x normal volume and an incredible 25% plunge. What caused it? A blog. China Biologic: There Will Be Blood

The author, who openly admitted he is short CBPO, essentially says that the people who seeded the company are felons and insinuated not all is as it seems with the company. I have seen this play out several times with these Chinese companies, LIWA and CSKI also had "scare" short articles. They have not yet born out to be correct and I'd suggest there is no reason to believe there is truth behind this one as well. It is troubling that people try to start these stampedes, I suspect it may be illegal, though if there are some facts behind the post it may be impossible to press charges. Good chance for the brave to buy CBPO. Here are my stats for them (if you believe the Compustat filings):



cbpo
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 45.31
- Minority Interest - Income Account 11.72
= Income for Calculation 33.59

Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.633

Share Price 8.71
+ Market Cap Calc 188.42
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities 18.58
+ Long-Term Debt 0.05

Cash and Short-Term Investments 50.35
- Excess Cash 50.35
= Enterprise Value 156.70






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 27.85
+ Receivables 2.44
+ Inventories 33.22
+ Other Current Assests 1.58
+ Working Cash -
- Accounts Payable 3.61
- Current Liabilities - Other 33.56
= Invested Capital 27.93
Earnings Yield 21%
ROIC 120%

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Chinese Stocks Crunched

I thought I would use my new Cruncher spreadsheet to rank Chinese Stocks. Many of them for various reasons don't make the MFI screen. Some interesting choices here:

Row Labels EY ROC Total Mkt Cap
CMM 59% 147% 21 83
SNDA 15% 403% 30 3,439
CHOP 21% 116% 32 265
ltus 24% 99% 35 83
UTA 18% 111% 35 158
LTON 651% 62% 36 71
CCME 13% 321% 37 341
STV 16% 132% 39 373
CEU 13% 207% 40 158
QXM 3795% 54% 40 152
GA 12% 470% 42 1,743
CSKI 18% 81% 42 314
chcg 676% 50% 44 26
SOHU 11% 237% 49 2,189
CPC 29% 48% 52 241
CYOU 10% 1430% 53 1,749
GAME 10% 1129% 56 2,682
CBEH 15% 60% 57 260
SHE 10% 199% 58 225
ZSTN 14% 56% 62 90
LIWA 12% 67% 63 210
CHBT 12% 71% 63 268
AOB 17% 46% 66 380
YONG 12% 67% 67 256
FUQI 18% 37% 69 467
SIHI 16% 43% 72 94
CMFO 12% 51% 73 143
NTES 8% 357% 74 4,369
SKBI 21% 35% 74 39
YUII 10% 63% 78 172
QKLS 9% 105% 78 191
NEP 15% 36% 78 210
GFRE 12% 47% 81 352
TPI 11% 53% 83 107
ONP 14% 35% 85 121
PWRD 8% 106% 88 1,971
CPHI 15% 34% 90 156
CMED 7% 178% 90 362
CISG 7% 192% 95 871
CNTF 49% 19% 99 148
SDTH 14% 29% 100 298
ALN 19% 20% 102 81
GRO 350% 16% 102 159
CFSG 9% 47% 103 364
CHNG 17% 21% 104 170
AUTC 7% 74% 106 307
PUDA 16% 20% 109 96
SPU 10% 35% 109 129
LFC 4% 163% 110 126,607
YZC 9% 37% 111 10,279
CPBY 11% 31% 112 272
ASIA 3% 1022% 113 1,159
JST 10% 31% 115 311
NTE 30% 8% 121 224
VISN 6% 55% 122 689
SINA 3% 137% 122 2,283
CRIC 4% 136% 122 1,221
HRBN 10% 27% 123 500
KONG 4% 104% 124 430
NIV 11% 21% 124 142
TBV 13% 16% 125 212
CTFO 7% 36% 128 181
XING 343% 2% 128 149
SSRX 8% 35% 129 251
DGW 5% 55% 130 641
TSTC 8% 33% 132 176
BIDU 2% 153% 132 14,529
CAGC 9% 28% 133 218
CTRP 2% 130% 134 4,537
CGA 7% 43% 134 320
HEAT 6% 47% 135 338
RINO 7% 36% 135 595
TRIT 6% 48% 135 81
CNGL 8% 28% 137 145
HPJ 6% 38% 138 97
FSIN 12% 15% 139 257
CSR 11% 16% 139 413
YTEC 9% 21% 143 130
WUHN 12% 11% 143 82
HOGS 10% 19% 144 412
EDU 3% 63% 145 2,891
FEED 8% 22% 146 201
SVA 7% 34% 146 314
NPD 3% 54% 149 700
CRTP 8% 20% 149 100
APWR 7% 28% 149 430
JOBS 4% 45% 149 452
EJ 7% 30% 150 1,295
CWS 7% 24% 155 126
MR 3% 47% 156 4,087
WATG 8% 20% 158 293
NED 10% 9% 160 169
WH 10% 9% 162 317
ADY 8% 17% 163 490
PTR 9% 14% 163 209,266
CXDC 5% 30% 165 323
DEER 3% 35% 169 266
CO 3% 34% 171 430
WWIN 7% 14% 173 158
SUTR 9% 7% 173 117
NKBP 5% 24% 173 157
CCM 4% 27% 178 498
SCR 6% 19% 179 482
COGO 7% 13% 180 246
CALI 7% 16% 181 88
WX 4% 21% 186 1,130
GSH 7% 7% 188 2,957
VIT 3% 27% 188 775
TSL 6% 14% 190 1,360
SORL 6% 12% 194 210
CAAS 4% 17% 199 575
DL 1% 24% 201 214
CEDU 4% 11% 204 138
CHLN 5% 8% 207 134
GRRF 4% 5% 214 85
CIIC 4% 5% 219 163
SEED 2% 11% 223 249
HMIN 2% 9% 227 1,358
YGE 2% 4% 234 1,941
KNDI 1% 5% 238 102
STP 1% 3% 241 2,371
CVVT 1% 4% 243 321
SVN 1% 3% 244 597
HNP 1% 1% 245 6,778
GSI 0% 1% 250 191
LONG 0% -1% 255 271
TCM -1% -1% 257 119
ATAI 0% -2% 257 87
XSEL -1% -5% 260 57
CBAK -2% -3% 261 154
ACH -3% -5% 265 14,796
HOLI -2% -12% 268 575
ZNH -6% -5% 271 2,270
JASO -5% -10% 271 779
AMCN -4% -12% 273 560
SOLF -11% -12% 276 383
CEA -13% -14% 279 1,767
JRJC -3% -28% 280 164
XIN -16% -18% 282 331
GU -55% -9% 283 108
LDK -18% -19% 284 711
FMCN -5% -50% 285 2,074
SMI -20% -19% 286 1,888
CSUN -21% -24% 289 180
SOL -27% -28% 291 326
SPRD -14% -149% 292 310
CAEI -32% -41% 294 58
ATV -511% -24% 295 151
SHI -36% -57% 297 2,700
VIMC -63% -167% 302 178
ACTS -586% -88% 303 183
HRAY -67% -2214% 305 81
NCTY -2306% -306% 307 188