Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Off to the Races?

My actual MFI portfolio is morphing into a Mechanical Portfolio. Right now my portfolio is about 50% mechanical, meaning they are stocks that I picked when they entered my mechanical screen. Then I am at about 16% cash, so obviously the remaining 34% would be non-mechanical.

It is becoming clearer and clearer that mechanical is where it is at. In just the 1st three trading days of the year, my mechanical component is up almost 10%! Obviously cash is flat and the rest is down, overall I am up a bit more than 3%.

Today, the Mechanical increase was driven by three stocks, each up about 10%: CEU, CMFO and JTX. CMFO was the only with news, as they announced the closing of their acquisition (China Marine Food Group Ltd. Completes Acquisition of Shishi Xianghe Food Science and Technology Co., Ltd.) and they gave guidance for 2010:

Revised 2010 Guidance

Based on the revenue and net income projections from Xianghe for 2010, China Marine will increase its previously stated guidance of $80.0 million in revenues and $18.0 million in net income to $100.0 million in revenues and $21.5 million in net income for the year ending December 31, 2010.

So they shot up nicely, if you think about 21.5m against a 150m enterprise value I'd say they are now pretty fairly valued, up almost 95% for me.

KHD was up about 4% on big news (KHD Humboldt Wedag International Ltd. to Increase Shareholders' Value by Dividing the Company Into Two Entities). I am not sure what the ramifications of a split of the company will be to my MFI holding. One of the new companies will be listing in Frankfort. I will likely end up selling early as I am unsure how to deal with that part. It is scheduled to occur in March.

Did have some not-so-good news after the bell, TSRA gave some lukewarm guidance (Tessera Tech sees Q4 revs of ~$56 mln vs $61.30 mln First Call consensus; sees Q1 revs of $59-61 mln vs $64.52 mln First Call consensus). So I expect they'll be down 5 to 10% tomorrow.

Finally, did anyone notice that CDII was up another 25% today?

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