Thursday, January 21, 2010

Earnings Starting to Arrive

Tis the Season... earnings season that is. I am actually two-fer-two so far, but many many to go.

FRX - one of my many pharma plays had solid earnings to start the week (Forest Labs Posts 3Q Results, Ups Guidance). This has been an extremely steady stock for me, up about 32%, even with the sell-off today. I have no idea whether the downfall of Obamacare is a positive or negative for Forest.

ESI - when I picked this for profit educator when they came on the mechanical screen a few months ago I had a choice between them or Apollo. I went with ESI as I liked the fact that they focused more on technical education, which seems like where the jobs will be to me. I was not disappointed as they shot up 6& today on a very nice earnings report (UPDATE - ITT Education Q4 results, 2010 EPS view top Wall St).

So they expect 20% growth next year, I'd argue they are still pretty darned cheap trading about 10x 2010 expected earnings. I guess the threat is that Obama changes the rules regarding govt sponsered student loans.

I did use the sell-off the past two days to start building a bigger position in gold. I already owned a chunk of HBMFF from MFI days of past. Today I bought some GG and CDE. On another 5% drop I'll buy some more.

Here is a quick post of the top 25 mechanical portfolio:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
COH 2/14/09 13.97 34.10 - 82.76 2.18 144.1% 37.6% 106.5%
DELL 2/21/09 8.41 14.39 - 77.42 2.18 71.1% 47.1% 24.0%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 6.31 - 77.42 2.18 49.5% 47.1% 2.4%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 103.51 - 73.93 2.18 150.8% 54.0% 96.8%
FWLT 2/28/09 15.04 32.43 - 73.93 2.18 115.6% 54.0% 61.6%
HCKT 2/28/09 2.56 2.59 - 73.93 2.18 1.2% 54.0% -52.9%
MWW 2/28/09 6.59 16.64 - 73.93 2.18 152.5% 54.0% 98.5%
PTIE 2/28/09 4.53 5.21 - 73.93 2.18 15.0% 54.0% -39.0%
TRLG 2/28/09 10.22 20.62 - 73.93 2.18 101.8% 54.0% 47.7%
qlti 3/6/09 1.41 4.65 - 68.92 2.18 229.8% 65.2% 164.6%
exbd 3/6/09 12.96 23.99 0.74 68.92 2.18 90.8% 65.2% 25.6%
FIX 3/13/09 9.73 12.28
76.09 2.18 26.2% 49.7% -23.5%
DBTK 3/13/09 6.65 10.39 - 76.09 2.18 56.2% 49.7% 6.6%
LOOP 3/13/09 5.77 9.95 - 76.09 2.18 72.4% 49.7% 22.8%
PRO 3/27/09 4.29 8.89 - 81.61 1.62 107.2% 38.8% 68.4%
ACN 4/9/09 27.71 43.09 - 85.81 1.62 55.5% 32.1% 23.5%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.10 - 87.08 1.62 4.6% 30.1% -25.5%
TSRA 5/1/09 14.52 18.88 - 87.89 1.62 30.0% 28.9% 1.1%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 18.33 - 87.89 1.62 -38.6% 28.9% -67.5%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 10.05 - 87.89 1.62 15.3% 28.9% -13.7%
TYPE 5/1/09 3.80 9.44 - 87.89 1.62 148.4% 28.9% 119.5%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 5.15 - 87.89 1.62 29.4% 28.9% 0.5%
INT 5/8/09 41.90 51.90 - 92.98 1.62 23.9% 21.9% 2.0%
IPHS 5/15/09 15.03 20.95 - 88.71 1.62 39.4% 27.7% 11.7%
GNI 5/29/09 86.75 89.00 3.60 92.53 1.62 6.7% 22.5% -15.7%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 10.23 - 92.53 1.62 29.5% 22.5% 7.0%
FRX 6/5/09 23.66 30.62 - 94.55 1.62 29.4% 19.8% 9.6%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 5.26 - 95.08 1.62 102.3% 19.2% 83.1%
VM 6/11/09 4.24 5.50 - 95.08 1.62 29.7% 19.2% 10.5%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 14.75 - 92.04 0.51 -11.9% 21.9% -33.8%
MTXX 7/2/09 5.77 4.50 - 91.84 0.51 -22.0% 22.2% -44.2%
JTX 7/2/09 5.74 3.44 - 91.84 0.51 -40.1% 22.2% -62.2%
GIGM 7/24/09 4.98 3.00 - 98.06 0.51 -39.8% 14.4% -54.2%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 22.24 - 98.81 0.51 59.4% 13.6% 45.9%
BR 7/31/09 17.27 22.23 0.28 98.81 0.51 30.3% 13.6% 16.8%
LO 7/31/09 73.72 75.73 - 98.81 0.51 2.7% 13.6% -10.8%
ITWO 8/7/09 14.36 19.48 - 101.20 0.51 35.7% 10.9% 24.8%
BKE 8/14/09 26.54 30.53 2.00 100.79 0.51 22.6% 11.3% 11.2%
GTLS 8/14/09 20.73 18.48 - 100.79 0.51 -10.9% 11.3% -22.2%
PRIM 8/14/09 6.95 8.05 0.05 100.79 0.51 16.5% 11.3% 5.2%
SEPR 8/14/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 11.3% 15.6%
PVSW 8/14/09 5.00 4.79 - 100.79 0.51 -4.2% 11.3% -15.5%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 6.54 - 102.96 0.51 28.2% 9.0% 19.3%
cytk 8/28/09 3.04 3.06 - 103.38 0.51 0.7% 8.5% -7.9%
jcom 8/28/09 22.14 18.96 - 103.38 0.51 -14.4% 8.5% -22.9%
AMED 9/4/09 35.00 57.97 - 102.06 0.51 65.6% 9.9% 55.7%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 4.17 - 106.72 0.51 12.1% 5.1% 7.0%
MHP 9/25/09 23.67 33.34 0.23 104.45 0.59 41.8% 7.5% 34.3%
AGX 10/16/09 12.50 13.71 - 108.89 0.59 9.7% 3.1% 6.6%
BBND 10/30/09 3.70 3.25 - 103.56 0.59 -12.2% 8.4% -20.6%
FLR 10/30/09 44.42 46.54 - 103.56 0.59 4.8% 8.4% -3.7%
RGR 10/30/09 10.62 10.96 - 103.56 0.59 3.2% 8.4% -5.2%
RTN 10/30/09 45.28 53.64 0.31 103.56 0.59 19.1% 8.4% 10.7%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 28.04 - 103.56 0.59 2.2% 8.4% -6.2%
immu 11/6/09 3.61 4.34 - 107.13 0.59 20.2% 4.8% 15.4%
cbst 11/6/09 17.60 20.57 - 107.13 0.59 16.9% 4.8% 12.1%
snta 11/6/09 3.20 4.63 - 107.13 0.59 44.7% 4.8% 39.9%
CNU 11/13/09 3.10 4.92 - 109.62 0.59 58.7% 2.4% 56.3%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 25.68 - 109.43 0.59 9.0% 2.6% 6.4%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.68 - 109.57 0.59 0.8% 2.5% -1.7%
ARO 12/4/09 28.95 34.42 - 111.01 0.59 18.9% 1.2% 17.7%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 10.99 - 111.01 0.59 21.3% 1.2% 20.1%
SHE 12/31/09 5.15 8.13 - 111.44 - 57.9% 0.2% 57.6%
















Totals 24.9% 6.6% 18.3%
68.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 11.8% -10.3% 22.1%
S&P C

111.70

Open 37.5% 22.9% 14.7%

2 comments:

Jordan Marton said...

Do you share your ranking tool? I'd like to take a look at it if you do.

Marsh_Gerda said...

Are you talking about my tool from my blog "Start Crunching"? If so, I posted it at http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/magicformulainvesting/

In the files section