Tuesday, January 29, 2008

(Re)Fine Day

Wow, actually had a big day. It was really helped by the refining section as HOC was up 7% and WNR was up 14%. It goes to what I have been saying for some time... these refiners are extremely seasonal. Margins go down in the fall/winter as driving slows down and increases in the spring/summer. And every year the stock markets acts like this is news. I bought a bunch of estra of both stocks in my IRA to sell in July/August. The trigger today was VLO (Analyst says Valero's earnings a 'clear beat'), which showed that even with slimmed down margins that refiners are making some dough. Even with the bumps, the sector is still cheap in my opinion.

One item that has really caught my eye of late is how much cash some MFI stocks have. They say "cash is king" and it certainly seems like something you'd want to have in a recession, but the stocks have been pounded nonetheless and seem like good values.

IVAC (11.22) - Cash per share = $6.16
SIMG (4.48) - Cash per share = $2.68
PRLS (2.39) - Cash per share = $1.24
TRID (5.02) - Cash per share = $3.41
HLYS (6.35) - Cash per share = $3.32
KSWS (17.69) - Cash per share = $8.13
KSW (6.60) - cash per share = $2.90
KFY (15.13) - Cash per Share = $5.19
HSII (26.82) - cash per share = $12.37

This is in no way a complete list, just some stocks off the top of my head. Look at those numbers again, on many of those stocks, about 1/2 their stock price is backed by cash. Stunning stuff. Gosh, I may run out and buy more of some of these stocks.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Financial Stock Update

I would have done well to have fully taken my own advice from last week:

GNW: 21.86 to 21.77 0%
ACAS: 28.70 to 31.79 +11%
BCS: 34.85 to 38.32 +10%
MBI: 8.55 to 14.20 +66%
C: 24.45 to 26.64 +9%
PMI: 6.47 to 9.12 +41%
FMD: 14.30 to 17.30 +21%

All Stocks Average: 22%.

Disclosure - I own the 1st three. I added some more GNW during the week.

24 of my current holdings are in the current top 100. Here are ones not on the list:

TGB
DGX
TCK
LRCX
UG
PNCL
USHS
WNR
GVHR

Here is the top 50 over 100m list that I'll use to replace the tracking portfolio that just matured:

Top 50 companies with a minimum market cap. of $101 million
Companies are listed in alphabetical order
Name (in alphabetical order) Ticker Market Cap
($ Millions)
Pre Tax
Earnings Yield
Pre Tax
Return on Capital
Price
From
Most Recent
Quarter Data
Accenture Ltd ACN 20,251.02 13% > 100% 01/25 11/30
AmSurg Corp AMSG 807.97 16% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Ambassadors Group Inc EPAX 337.80 16% > 100% 01/25 09/30
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO 4,597.80 16% 75 - 100% 01/25 10/31
Barrett Business Services Inc BBSI 203.11 17% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Biovail Corp BVF 2,032.12 23% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Broadvision Inc BVSN 179.88 13% > 100% 01/25 09/30
COMSYS IT Partners Inc CITP 227.89 14% > 100% 01/25 09/30
CSG Systems International Inc. CSGS 472.74 16% > 100% 01/25 09/30
China 3C Group CHCG 168.54 24% > 100% 01/25 09/30
ChinaCast Education Corp CAST 158.30 11% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Cutera Inc CUTR 168.41 22% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Diamond Management & Technology Consultants Inc DTPI 145.93 23% > 100% 01/25 09/30
FTD Group Inc FTD 293.49 13% > 100% 01/25 09/30
FreightCar America Inc RAIL 420.90 46% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Frontier Oil Corp. FTO 3,488.28 24% 75 - 100% 01/25 09/30
HealthTronics Inc HTRN 138.87 25% 50 - 75% 01/25 09/30
Heelys Inc HLYS 171.37 72% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Heidrick & Struggles International Inc HSII 457.76 24% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Holly Corp HOC 2,535.83 20% 75 - 100% 01/25 09/30
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBMFF 2,249.38 27% 50 - 75% 01/25 09/30
ICF International Inc ICFI 349.57 20% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Idearc Inc IAR 2,253.92 13% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Intevac Inc IVAC 229.99 56% > 100% 01/25 09/30
King Pharmaceuticals Inc. KG 2,439.26 37% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Korn/Ferry International KFY 705.28 21% > 100% 01/25 10/31
LCA Vision Inc LCAV 302.70 20% > 100% 01/25 09/30
LoJack Corp LOJN 203.84 20% 75 - 100% 01/25 09/30
Logility Inc LGTY 126.22 12% > 100% 01/25 10/31
MicroStrategy Inc MSTR 867.74 11% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Pacer International Inc PACR 541.26 15% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Palomar Medical Technologies Inc PMTI 257.77 25% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Perini Corp PCR 885.50 22% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Premier Exhibitions Inc PRXI 168.50 15% > 100% 01/25 11/30
Robert Half International Inc. RHI 3,754.75 14% > 100% 01/25 09/30
SAIC Inc SAI 2,855.10 21% 75 - 100% 01/25 10/31
Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd SLXP 316.38 17% 75 - 100% 01/25 09/30
Select Comfort Corp SCSS 310.78 18% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Silicon Image Inc SIMG 344.38 33% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Supertex Inc SUPX 247.64 19% 50 - 75% 01/25 12/31
Travelzoo Inc TZOO 220.16 13% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Trident Microsystems Inc TRID 296.64 41% > 100% 01/25 09/30
USA Mobility Inc USMO 322.77 29% > 100% 01/25 09/30
United Online Inc UNTD 724.41 15% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Vaalco Energy Inc EGY 267.21 30% 75 - 100% 01/25 09/30
Value Line Inc VALU 395.29 11% > 100% 01/25 10/31
Verigy Ltd VRGY 1,192.91 13% > 100% 01/25 10/31
ViroPharma Inc VPHM 617.09 39% > 100% 01/25 09/30
Westwood One Inc. WON 146.94 16% > 100% 01/25 09/30
j2 Global Communications Inc JCOM 935.83 11% > 100% 01/25 09/30

Don't Look!

It wasn't a bad week for my portfolio. Sadly, it came on the heels of 3 dreadful weeks. But it is time to start printing my charts and tables again. I am coming up on my 2-year anniversary... with a thud. Looking back, I think a couple of things happened.
  1. When the credit crisis hit in July, Private Equity buyouts ended. I think many MFI stocks had been bid up as buyout candidates. That premium went away quickly.
  2. When the credit crisis hit, there was a flight to quality. People didn't want to own smaller, unknown stocks or larger stocks with some sort of overhang (debt or litigation).
Does this mean MFI doesn't work? I don't think so. I think when we start seeing buyouts or acquisitions again, then you'll see the MFI stocks start to outperform again. Right now there is still a lot fear out there.

I posted results from my stock contest. The average person is down more than 20% since July 1st. It is widespread pain. Below I list my most recent tracking portfolio that just hit a year old (plus how the other 13 closed portfolios fared). It was down more than 10% and down more than Russell 3000 benchmark:

ASPV $19.89 $26.0 30.7%

bbsi $22.24 $18.0 -19.1%

BVF $19.23 $12.62 -34.4%

CREL $13.51 $7.97 -41.0%

CRYP $24.40 $16.11 -34.0%

CVCO $31.92 $31.48 -1.4%

DEBS $26.94 $27.28 1.2%

EGY $6.39 $4.51 -29.4%

ELNK $7.28 $6.40 -12.1%

EPIQ $12.02 $15.47 28.7%

FCX $57.87 $84.22 45.5%

FDG $20.08 $44.21 120.2%

FTO $26.59 $32.94 23.9%

HLF $32.70 $39.35 20.3%

HNR $9.85 $10.54 7.0%

HOC $53.21 $46.60 -12.4%

KFY $23.07 $15.13 -34.4%

KG $17.74 $9.98 -43.7%

KSWS $31.14 $17.14 -45.0%

LMS $26.0 $27.30 5.0%

lrw $18.50 $13.17 -28.8%

MOT $18.17 $10.73 -40.9%

MTEX $14.72 $5.50 -62.6%

NOOF $8.97 $4.90 -45.4%

NUE $59.07 $54.97 -6.9%

ODSY $13.34 $8.76 -34.3%

OPMR $8.38 $4.24 -49.4%

OVTI $11.71 $14.44 23.3%

PACR $28.60 $15.60 -45.5%

PALM $7.57 $4.86 -35.8%

PCU $55.60 $87.28 57.0%

PNCL $17.31 $12.65 -26.9%

PPD $38.63 $54.47 41.0%

PTEN $22.76 $19.14 -15.9%

RAIL $54.89 $35.63 -35.1%

SHOO $30.93 $15.70 -49.2%

TCK $35.56 $32.51 -8.6%

TGB $2.58 $3.82 48.1%

TGIS $13.34 $6.11 -54.2%

TRLG $17.35 $17.81 2.7%

UIC $49.88 $80.96 62.3%

UNTD $13.14 $10.71 -18.5%

USMO $16.84 $11.82 -29.8%

VALU $45.42 $39.60 -12.8%

VCI $14.62 $9.55 -34.7%

VPHM $16.07 $8.83 -45.1%

VRGY $19.0 $19.98 5.2%

WNR $26.70 $20.18 -24.4%

Average of Percent Change




Date

Total

IWV


1/6/2006

16.0%

10.9%

1/6/2006

2/17/2006

21.2%

14.6%

2/17/2006

3/29/2006

13.0%

9.6%

3/29/2006

4/7/2006

10.3%

12.1%

4/7/2006

5/12/2006

20.4%

17.3%

5/12/2006

5/31/2006

29.2%

22.0%

5/31/2006

6/30/2006

22.4%

18.7%

6/30/2006

7/31/2006

19.7%

15.9%

7/31/2006

8/31/2006

13.0%

12.0%

8/31/2006

9/28/2006

12.7%

14.6%

9/28/2006

10/27/2006

10.3%

12.0%

10/27/2006

11/29/2006

-0.3%

4.8%

11/29/2006

12/28/2006

-6.9%

3.4%

12/28/2006

1/26/2007

-10.2%

-6.6%

1/26/2007


Now for my graph. I haven't posted it recently as it is so ugly. It shows how my portfolio has fared against breakeven and against the Russell 3000. You'll see how bad the 1st three weeks of January were. Yikes!


Finally here are my current holdings:

Current Portfolio

Stock

Purchase Date

Cost

Current

Gain

TGB

3/27/2007

$2.64

$3.82

44.7%

VSNT

7/27/2007

$19.54

$25.57

30.9%

MSTR

9/14/2007

$69.55

$71.36

2.6%

KSW

5/10/2007

$6.54

$6.55

0.2%

KG

11/19/2007

$10.10

$9.98

-1.2%

ACN

11/28/2007

$34.28

$33.86

-1.2%

HOC

11/29/2007

$47.64

$46.60

-1.9%

TGIS

12/7/2007

$6.42

$6.11

-3.3%

DGX

3/17/2007

$52.11

$49.02

-5.2%

UNTD

12/8/2007

$11.31

$10.71

-5.3%

CHCG.OB

1/2/2008

$3.42

$3.20

-6.3%

VALU

5/29/2007

$44.01

$39.60

-8.7%

LCAV

11/9/2007

$17.59

$15.88

-8.7%

TCK

8/16/2007

$36.50

$32.51

-9.5%

KFY

9/28/2007

$16.74

$15.13

-9.6%

UG

6/13/2007

$12.09

$10.15

-13.7%

IAR

12/21/2007

$17.80

$15.35

-13.8%

THO

12/6/2007

$38.61

$31.78

-13.9%

JTX

4/9/2007

$28.70

$24.02

-14.4%

LRCX

2/26/2007

$47.51

$39.36

-17.2%

HGG

8/3/2007

$13.48

$11.04

-18.1%

TRID

11/28/2007

$6.24

$4.99

-20.0%

RAIL

5/26/2007

$45.54

$35.63

-21.4%

AEO

5/16/2007

$28.42

$21.46

-23.4%

BBSI

9/7/2007

$24.13

$18.00

-25.1%

PNCL

5/4/2007

$17.07

$12.65

-25.9%

HSII

10/5/2007

$39.92

$26.00

-34.5%

PACR

3/17/2007

$25.46

$15.60

-36.8%

NOOF

4/27/2007

$8.59

$4.90

-38.6%

WSTG

5/15/2007

$14.98

$8.29

-42.0%

USHS

6/25/2007

$11.22

$5.18

-53.8%

WNR

7/27/2007

$46.22

$20.18

-56.1%

GVHR

10/12/2007

$15.91

$6.39

-58.0%











Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):

($106,266)

Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):

-16.5%

Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):

$31,238

Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):

4.2%

Total Gain/Loss ($):

($75,028)

Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):

($7,592)

Annual IRR:

-10.8%

Total Gain/Loss (%):

-12.5%