Saturday, January 26, 2008

Don't Look!

It wasn't a bad week for my portfolio. Sadly, it came on the heels of 3 dreadful weeks. But it is time to start printing my charts and tables again. I am coming up on my 2-year anniversary... with a thud. Looking back, I think a couple of things happened.
  1. When the credit crisis hit in July, Private Equity buyouts ended. I think many MFI stocks had been bid up as buyout candidates. That premium went away quickly.
  2. When the credit crisis hit, there was a flight to quality. People didn't want to own smaller, unknown stocks or larger stocks with some sort of overhang (debt or litigation).
Does this mean MFI doesn't work? I don't think so. I think when we start seeing buyouts or acquisitions again, then you'll see the MFI stocks start to outperform again. Right now there is still a lot fear out there.

I posted results from my stock contest. The average person is down more than 20% since July 1st. It is widespread pain. Below I list my most recent tracking portfolio that just hit a year old (plus how the other 13 closed portfolios fared). It was down more than 10% and down more than Russell 3000 benchmark:

ASPV $19.89 $26.0 30.7%

bbsi $22.24 $18.0 -19.1%

BVF $19.23 $12.62 -34.4%

CREL $13.51 $7.97 -41.0%

CRYP $24.40 $16.11 -34.0%

CVCO $31.92 $31.48 -1.4%

DEBS $26.94 $27.28 1.2%

EGY $6.39 $4.51 -29.4%

ELNK $7.28 $6.40 -12.1%

EPIQ $12.02 $15.47 28.7%

FCX $57.87 $84.22 45.5%

FDG $20.08 $44.21 120.2%

FTO $26.59 $32.94 23.9%

HLF $32.70 $39.35 20.3%

HNR $9.85 $10.54 7.0%

HOC $53.21 $46.60 -12.4%

KFY $23.07 $15.13 -34.4%

KG $17.74 $9.98 -43.7%

KSWS $31.14 $17.14 -45.0%

LMS $26.0 $27.30 5.0%

lrw $18.50 $13.17 -28.8%

MOT $18.17 $10.73 -40.9%

MTEX $14.72 $5.50 -62.6%

NOOF $8.97 $4.90 -45.4%

NUE $59.07 $54.97 -6.9%

ODSY $13.34 $8.76 -34.3%

OPMR $8.38 $4.24 -49.4%

OVTI $11.71 $14.44 23.3%

PACR $28.60 $15.60 -45.5%

PALM $7.57 $4.86 -35.8%

PCU $55.60 $87.28 57.0%

PNCL $17.31 $12.65 -26.9%

PPD $38.63 $54.47 41.0%

PTEN $22.76 $19.14 -15.9%

RAIL $54.89 $35.63 -35.1%

SHOO $30.93 $15.70 -49.2%

TCK $35.56 $32.51 -8.6%

TGB $2.58 $3.82 48.1%

TGIS $13.34 $6.11 -54.2%

TRLG $17.35 $17.81 2.7%

UIC $49.88 $80.96 62.3%

UNTD $13.14 $10.71 -18.5%

USMO $16.84 $11.82 -29.8%

VALU $45.42 $39.60 -12.8%

VCI $14.62 $9.55 -34.7%

VPHM $16.07 $8.83 -45.1%

VRGY $19.0 $19.98 5.2%

WNR $26.70 $20.18 -24.4%

Average of Percent Change




Date

Total

IWV


1/6/2006

16.0%

10.9%

1/6/2006

2/17/2006

21.2%

14.6%

2/17/2006

3/29/2006

13.0%

9.6%

3/29/2006

4/7/2006

10.3%

12.1%

4/7/2006

5/12/2006

20.4%

17.3%

5/12/2006

5/31/2006

29.2%

22.0%

5/31/2006

6/30/2006

22.4%

18.7%

6/30/2006

7/31/2006

19.7%

15.9%

7/31/2006

8/31/2006

13.0%

12.0%

8/31/2006

9/28/2006

12.7%

14.6%

9/28/2006

10/27/2006

10.3%

12.0%

10/27/2006

11/29/2006

-0.3%

4.8%

11/29/2006

12/28/2006

-6.9%

3.4%

12/28/2006

1/26/2007

-10.2%

-6.6%

1/26/2007


Now for my graph. I haven't posted it recently as it is so ugly. It shows how my portfolio has fared against breakeven and against the Russell 3000. You'll see how bad the 1st three weeks of January were. Yikes!


Finally here are my current holdings:

Current Portfolio

Stock

Purchase Date

Cost

Current

Gain

TGB

3/27/2007

$2.64

$3.82

44.7%

VSNT

7/27/2007

$19.54

$25.57

30.9%

MSTR

9/14/2007

$69.55

$71.36

2.6%

KSW

5/10/2007

$6.54

$6.55

0.2%

KG

11/19/2007

$10.10

$9.98

-1.2%

ACN

11/28/2007

$34.28

$33.86

-1.2%

HOC

11/29/2007

$47.64

$46.60

-1.9%

TGIS

12/7/2007

$6.42

$6.11

-3.3%

DGX

3/17/2007

$52.11

$49.02

-5.2%

UNTD

12/8/2007

$11.31

$10.71

-5.3%

CHCG.OB

1/2/2008

$3.42

$3.20

-6.3%

VALU

5/29/2007

$44.01

$39.60

-8.7%

LCAV

11/9/2007

$17.59

$15.88

-8.7%

TCK

8/16/2007

$36.50

$32.51

-9.5%

KFY

9/28/2007

$16.74

$15.13

-9.6%

UG

6/13/2007

$12.09

$10.15

-13.7%

IAR

12/21/2007

$17.80

$15.35

-13.8%

THO

12/6/2007

$38.61

$31.78

-13.9%

JTX

4/9/2007

$28.70

$24.02

-14.4%

LRCX

2/26/2007

$47.51

$39.36

-17.2%

HGG

8/3/2007

$13.48

$11.04

-18.1%

TRID

11/28/2007

$6.24

$4.99

-20.0%

RAIL

5/26/2007

$45.54

$35.63

-21.4%

AEO

5/16/2007

$28.42

$21.46

-23.4%

BBSI

9/7/2007

$24.13

$18.00

-25.1%

PNCL

5/4/2007

$17.07

$12.65

-25.9%

HSII

10/5/2007

$39.92

$26.00

-34.5%

PACR

3/17/2007

$25.46

$15.60

-36.8%

NOOF

4/27/2007

$8.59

$4.90

-38.6%

WSTG

5/15/2007

$14.98

$8.29

-42.0%

USHS

6/25/2007

$11.22

$5.18

-53.8%

WNR

7/27/2007

$46.22

$20.18

-56.1%

GVHR

10/12/2007

$15.91

$6.39

-58.0%











Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):

($106,266)

Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):

-16.5%

Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):

$31,238

Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):

4.2%

Total Gain/Loss ($):

($75,028)

Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):

($7,592)

Annual IRR:

-10.8%

Total Gain/Loss (%):

-12.5%


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