Don't Look!

It wasn't a bad week for my portfolio. Sadly, it came on the heels of 3 dreadful weeks. But it is time to start printing my charts and tables again. I am coming up on my 2-year anniversary... with a thud. Looking back, I think a couple of things happened.

1. When the credit crisis hit in July, Private Equity buyouts ended. I think many MFI stocks had been bid up as buyout candidates. That premium went away quickly.
2. When the credit crisis hit, there was a flight to quality. People didn't want to own smaller, unknown stocks or larger stocks with some sort of overhang (debt or litigation).

Does this mean MFI doesn't work? I don't think so. I think when we start seeing buyouts or acquisitions again, then you'll see the MFI stocks start to outperform again. Right now there is still a lot fear out there.

I posted results from my stock contest. The average person is down more than 20% since July 1st. It is widespread pain. Below I list my most recent tracking portfolio that just hit a year old (plus how the other 13 closed portfolios fared). It was down more than 10% and down more than Russell 3000 benchmark:

ASPV $19.89 $26.0 30.7%

bbsi $22.24 $18.0 -19.1%

BVF $19.23 $12.62 -34.4%

CREL $13.51 $7.97 -41.0%

CRYP $24.40 $16.11 -34.0%

CVCO $31.92 $31.48 -1.4%

DEBS $26.94 $27.28 1.2%

EGY $6.39 $4.51 -29.4%

ELNK $7.28 $6.40 -12.1%

EPIQ $12.02 $15.47 28.7%

FCX $57.87 $84.22 45.5%

FDG $20.08 $44.21 120.2%

FTO $26.59 $32.94 23.9%

HLF $32.70 $39.35 20.3%

HNR $9.85 $10.54 7.0%

HOC $53.21 $46.60 -12.4%

KFY $23.07 $15.13 -34.4%

KG $17.74 $9.98 -43.7%

KSWS $31.14 $17.14 -45.0%

LMS $26.0 $27.30 5.0%

lrw $18.50 $13.17 -28.8%

MOT $18.17 $10.73 -40.9%

MTEX $14.72 $5.50 -62.6%

NOOF $8.97 $4.90 -45.4%

NUE $59.07 $54.97 -6.9%

ODSY $13.34 $8.76 -34.3%

OPMR $8.38 $4.24 -49.4%

OVTI $11.71 $14.44 23.3%

PACR $28.60 $15.60 -45.5%

PALM $7.57 $4.86 -35.8%

PCU $55.60 $87.28 57.0%

PNCL $17.31 $12.65 -26.9%

PPD $38.63 $54.47 41.0%

PTEN $22.76 $19.14 -15.9%

RAIL $54.89 $35.63 -35.1%

SHOO $30.93 $15.70 -49.2%

TCK $35.56 $32.51 -8.6%

TGB $2.58 $3.82 48.1%

TGIS $13.34 $6.11 -54.2%

TRLG $17.35 $17.81 2.7%

UIC $49.88 $80.96 62.3%

UNTD $13.14 $10.71 -18.5%

USMO $16.84 $11.82 -29.8%

VALU $45.42 $39.60 -12.8%

VCI $14.62 $9.55 -34.7%

VPHM $16.07 $8.83 -45.1%

VRGY $19.0 $19.98 5.2%

WNR $26.70 $20.18 -24.4%

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%	1/6/2006
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%	2/17/2006
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%	3/29/2006
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%	4/7/2006
5/12/2006	20.4%	17.3%	5/12/2006
5/31/2006	29.2%	22.0%	5/31/2006
6/30/2006	22.4%	18.7%	6/30/2006
7/31/2006	19.7%	15.9%	7/31/2006
8/31/2006	13.0%	12.0%	8/31/2006
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%	9/28/2006
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%	10/27/2006
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%	11/29/2006
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%	12/28/2006
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%	1/26/2007

Now for my graph. I haven't posted it recently as it is so ugly. It shows how my portfolio has fared against breakeven and against the Russell 3000. You'll see how bad the 1st three weeks of January were. Yikes!


Finally here are my current holdings:

Current Portfolio
Stock	Purchase Date	Cost	Current	Gain
TGB	3/27/2007	$2.64	$3.82	44.7%
VSNT	7/27/2007	$19.54	$25.57	30.9%
MSTR	9/14/2007	$69.55	$71.36	2.6%
KSW	5/10/2007	$6.54	$6.55	0.2%
KG	11/19/2007	$10.10	$9.98	-1.2%
ACN	11/28/2007	$34.28	$33.86	-1.2%
HOC	11/29/2007	$47.64	$46.60	-1.9%
TGIS	12/7/2007	$6.42	$6.11	-3.3%
DGX	3/17/2007	$52.11	$49.02	-5.2%
UNTD	12/8/2007	$11.31	$10.71	-5.3%
CHCG.OB	1/2/2008	$3.42	$3.20	-6.3%
VALU	5/29/2007	$44.01	$39.60	-8.7%
LCAV	11/9/2007	$17.59	$15.88	-8.7%
TCK	8/16/2007	$36.50	$32.51	-9.5%
KFY	9/28/2007	$16.74	$15.13	-9.6%
UG	6/13/2007	$12.09	$10.15	-13.7%
IAR	12/21/2007	$17.80	$15.35	-13.8%
THO	12/6/2007	$38.61	$31.78	-13.9%
JTX	4/9/2007	$28.70	$24.02	-14.4%
LRCX	2/26/2007	$47.51	$39.36	-17.2%
HGG	8/3/2007	$13.48	$11.04	-18.1%
TRID	11/28/2007	$6.24	$4.99	-20.0%
RAIL	5/26/2007	$45.54	$35.63	-21.4%
AEO	5/16/2007	$28.42	$21.46	-23.4%
BBSI	9/7/2007	$24.13	$18.00	-25.1%
PNCL	5/4/2007	$17.07	$12.65	-25.9%
HSII	10/5/2007	$39.92	$26.00	-34.5%
PACR	3/17/2007	$25.46	$15.60	-36.8%
NOOF	4/27/2007	$8.59	$4.90	-38.6%
WSTG	5/15/2007	$14.98	$8.29	-42.0%
USHS	6/25/2007	$11.22	$5.18	-53.8%
WNR	7/27/2007	$46.22	$20.18	-56.1%
GVHR	10/12/2007	$15.91	$6.39	-58.0%
Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):				($106,266)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):				-16.5%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):				$31,238
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):				4.2%
Total Gain/Loss ($):				($75,028)
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):				($7,592)
Annual IRR:				-10.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%):				-12.5%