Monday, December 31, 2007

Another Year

2007 is in the books. I know my portfolio would rather forget about it. I haven't posted in a while, there is a lot to be said.

Monthly Tracking Portfolio

My December 28th 2006 portfolio came of age over the weekend. That means that we now have 13 portfolios "in the books". This represents almost 650 stock years. How has the magic formula fared? Nothing great. +13.9% on average versus +12.9% for the benchmark Russell 3000.

Of my 11 portfolios that are open (versus the 13 that have closed) they are trailing the benchmark on average by 8 points. Still some time remains to close that gap.

The December 2006 portfolio was the worst to-date. Down 6.9% while the the benchmark was up 3.4%. So MFI was routed by more than 10%. Here are the 50 stocks and how they fared:

bbsi $23.14 $17.78 -23.2%
brl $50.58 $53.31 5.4%
bvf $19.76 $13.30 -32.7%
caw $11.31 $9.50 -16.0%
CRYP $22.77 $17.51 -23.1%
cvco $35.73 $30.44 -14.8%
debs $26.93 $27.26 1.2%
dlx $24.45 $33.10 35.4%
eglt $14.68 $12.75 -13.1%
EGY $6.78 $4.71 -30.5%
elnk $7.13 $7.06 -1.0%
epiq $11.26 $17.67 56.9%
fdg $19.81 $38.49 94.3%
fto $28.94 $40.76 40.8%
hnr $10.71 $12.46 16.3%
hoc $52.0 $50.82 -2.3%
kfy $23.33 $18.61 -20.2%
kg $16.10 $10.21 -36.6%
ksws $31.81 $18.26 -42.6%
lms $24.71 $27.30 10.5%
lrcx $51.22 $43.79 -14.5%
lrw $18.64 $15.37 -17.5%
mot $20.38 $16.11 -21.0%
mtex $14.60 $6.29 -56.9%
nath $14.35 $17.48 21.8%
noof $8.71 $5.55 -36.3%
nue $53.64 $59.97 11.8%
opmr $9.23 $3.87 -58.1%
ovti $13.67 $15.67 14.6%
pacr $29.67 $14.52 -51.1%
palm $7.51 $6.23 -17.0%
PNCL $16.96 $14.99 -11.6%
ppd $40.21 $54.89 36.5%
pwei $35.01 $33.50 -4.3%
rail $56.61 $35.66 -37.0%
trlg $15.76 $21.48 36.3%
uic $50.93 $80.96 59.0%
untd $12.75 $11.75 -7.8%
valu $44.53 $40.40 -9.3%
vci $14.51 $11.59 -20.1%
VPHM $14.67 $8.20 -44.1%
wnr $25.81 $24.10 -6.6%
xjt $8.18 $2.50 -69.4%

Here is how all the portfolios have done in total. Note this list includes open portfolios as well:

Average of Percent Change

Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 17.3%
5/31/2006 29.2% 22.0%
6/30/2006 22.4% 18.7%
7/31/2006 19.7% 15.9%
8/31/2006 13.0% 12.0%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -0.8% 3.3%
2/27/2007 -2.1% 4.6%
3/26/2007 -8.1% 2.2%
4/27/2007 -8.9% -1.8%
5/29/2007 -12.1% -3.4%
7/3/2007 -20.3% -3.6%
7/30/2007 -12.9% 0.1%
8/30/2007 -7.9% 1.2%
9/27/2007 -8.2% -4.0%
11/2/2007 -8.3% -2.9%
11/28/2007 -0.4% -0.1%
Grand Total 3.3% 7.1%
Open -8.2% -0.4%
Closed 13.9% 12.9%

Want some more statistics? The table below shows how the stocks have done by market cap (at time of purchase) decile:

Size Decile Gain Max MC
1 18% 207
2 4% 327
3 1% 415
4 0% 573
5 11% 846
6 9% 1,038
7 22% 1,701
8 30% 3,191
9 14% 5,350
10 30% 117,016
Overall 14%

What does this show? The 65 closed stock years 207m and smaller are up 18%. But then stocks between 207m and 573m (over 180) have barely moved. Then the larger cap stocks are generally up double digits. As I have said before, thus far in MFI it has been all about market cap. I would wager that anyone doing well has been buying larger market cap stocks.

My Portfolio

My portfolio is trailing the benchmark by about 9 points. As I am doing worse than the average tracking portfolios shown above (trailing by about 4 points) I have wondered if I have been a poor stock picker. To test this, I grouped my stock purchases by month/year and then weighted them with the monthly tracking portfolios... guess what? That would be trailing the benchmark by 9 points. So that tells me I am picking stocks "average" rather my problem has been I have tended to invest in months that have performed poorly. Now is that because I am unlucky or do I tend to buy stocks when stocks are on the rise? Not sure. But it should balance out as I am not putting new $ into MFI.


Well, while it was an up-and-down year (I am 16% below my peak worth in 2007) at least things finished on an upswing. My low point was in late November when I trailed the benchmark by about 86K and was about 40K underwater. I end the year at almost exactly break-even and trail the benchmark by 53K. So I have shaved 33K off my low point in a bit more than a month. You only have to look at my graphs to see that things can move quickly.

Stock Contest

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but we're also struggling in the stock contest which began on July 1st. Almost exactly in lock step with my numbers. The 44 players are down on average by about 14.5% (similar to my 16% drop from my high of 2007 and the 20% drop from the tracking portfolio of 7/3/07). The benchmark is about flat.

I guess that is about all I have to say. Off to watch my Hoosiers in the Insight bowl... first bowl in 11 years. I have low expectations. Have a Happy & Safe New Year.

Saturday, December 22, 2007

Christmas Rally?

Decent close of the week. While I am still underwater, I have gained 6.6% since Thanksgiving. I still have a shot at finishing 2007 in the black. Watching the MFI stocks is never dull. Sometimes it is all about when you bought your stock. I am down about 50% on GVHR. But GVHR is up 78% in the past couple weeks. So is GVHR a good stock or a bad stock? Depends.

I did buy IAR yesterday. It is a stock I have been watching of late. Barron's seems to think it is worth considering (A Risky But Rewarding Dividend Play) and that was at about $1 higher. They are a dull company, but money can be made with plodders as well as streakers so long as the price is right.

We're off on holiday starting tomorrow. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season.

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
TGB 3/27/2007 $2.64 $4.75 79.9%
VSNT 7/27/2007 $19.54 $28.25 44.6%
MSTR 9/14/2007 $69.55 $94.92 36.5%
KFY 9/28/2007 $16.74 $19.47 16.3%
LCAV 11/9/2007 $17.59 $19.51 11.9%
ACN 11/28/2007 $34.28 $38.00 10.9%
HOC 11/29/2007 $47.64 $52.19 9.8%
TGIS 12/7/2007 $6.42 $7.03 9.5%
JTX 4/9/2007 $28.70 $30.99 9.2%
UNTD 12/8/2007 $11.31 $11.98 5.9%
KG 11/19/2007 $10.10 $10.57 4.7%
HGG 8/3/2007 $13.48 $13.93 3.3%
THO 12/6/2007 $38.61 $38.09 2.4%
DGX 3/17/2007 $52.11 $52.94 2.2%
CHKE 7/17/2007 $36.70 $35.74 1.5%
IAR 12/21/2007 $17.80 $17.87 0.4%
TCK 8/16/2007 $36.50 $35.63 -1.0%
KSW 5/10/2007 $6.54 $6.35 -2.9%
VALU 5/29/2007 $44.01 $41.42 -4.5%
LRCX 7/3/2007 $47.51 $44.42 -6.5%
PNCL 2/9/2007 $17.07 $15.95 -6.6%
TRID 11/28/2007 $6.24 $5.81 -6.9%
UG 6/13/2007 $12.09 $10.80 -8.3%
HSII 10/5/2007 $39.92 $36.31 -8.7%
RAIL 2/16/2007 $45.54 $36.55 -19.3%
BBSI 9/7/2007 $24.13 $18.32 -23.7%
AEO 7/10/2007 $28.42 $21.18 -24.8%
NOOF 4/27/2007 $8.59 $5.57 -30.8%
WSTG 5/15/2007 $14.98 $9.16 -36.1%
PACR 1/3/2007 $25.46 $14.45 -41.4%
WNR 7/27/2007 $46.22 $25.76 -44.2%
CHCG.OB 6/5/2007 $5.93 $3.25 -45.2%
GVHR 10/12/2007 $15.91 $8.05 -48.2%
USHS 6/25/2007 $11.22 $4.97 -55.7%

Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): ($43,354)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): -6.5%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): $39,416
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): 5.6%
Total Gain/Loss ($): ($3,938)
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): $62,022
Annual IRR: -0.6%
Total Gain/Loss (%): -0.7%

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Tax Selling?

My good news/bad news was right on point yesterday. ACN had a very nice day. Hopefully they'll have a solid 2008 as Ryan suggested. I could certainly use a few more winners.

One thing I noticed today that even though it was a decent day in the market, I had a couple stocks down on no news (TGIS USHS). James Stewart had a post discussing how this is a good time to sell your losers for tax purposes (It's Time to Harvest Tax Losses).

That made me wonder if that is what is happening to some of my stocks as we hit the 2 weeks before 2008 stretch. I certainly own a number of stocks that are almost certainly losers for many other people. If the stocks are being sold for harvesting tax losses, then that would suggest the stocks should bounce back up in the 1st month of 2008 as the selling pressure is artificial. Hard to tell if this is actually the case, but it makes me wonder. If you really felt it was the case or could substantiate it, that would be a clear signal to buy... it almost makes one wonder if MFI might work best right at the end of the year as stocks might be oversold for non fundamental reasons.

Hmmm. Of course I know that isn't the case for year end 2006. If you bought the MFI stocks at the end of 2006 you'd be about 10% below the benchmarks according to my tracking portfolios.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Good News/Bad News

Good News: ACN had a very strong quarter

This should help them start to move back towards their 52 week high of $44 (currently about $35).

Bad News: TRID had their CFO resign (Trident Microsystems CFO Resigns). While that is not automatically a negative, I feel it can be a red flag.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

It Could Be Worse

A friend of mine used to say, "things are never so bad that they can't get worse!". Not very upbeat, but he did have a point. So while I am in the red with my portfolio, it could certainly be worse. I have confessed a few times on this blog regarding times I have sold stocks early. Here are stocks I sold early and where I'd be if I had not sold early:

PDS: 21.89 down to 15.33 -30%
CREL 12.73 down to 8.05 -37%
MEOH 25.03 up to 26.53 +6%
AVCI 13.45 down to 9.44 -30%
UNTD 17.32 down to 11.96 -31%
KSWS 18.01 down to 17.28 -4%
SHOO 23.18 down to 20.73 -11%
FTO 46.66 down to 41.38 -11%
FDG no change
HW 15.17 down to 11.56 -24%
WPCS 11.11 down to 9.40 -15%
TRLG 22.61 down to 20.27 -10%

All-in-all down on average 16%. If I had held them and not bought their replacements I'd have over $33,000 less. It could be worse.

I did "reunite" with UNTD this week. I bought it back at $11.30.

Did get some "good" news with CHKE today. They announced they have engaged GS to explore strategic alternatives (Cherokee Inc. Retains Goldman, Sachs & Co. to Explore Strategic Alternatives). The stock was up over 6% on this news, though it is still way off its 52 week high (about 40% down).

LCAV was profiled this week in Barron's (LCA Vision may be eyeing rebound - Barron's). They are up 10% over their close on Friday. The article essentially argues that the drop from $50 to $16 was a mite steep and people with more than a 12 month outlook could do well.

ACN announces earnings tomorrow. I'll be watching closely. One analyst thinks the news will be good (Accenture: Citi Sees FY Q1 Results Wed. Beating Ests).

Finally another analyst downgraded TRID today. It has been a up and down ride (Trident: Roth Cuts Rating, Cites Lack Of Low End TV Chips).

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

TRI(E)D and True

Yesterday I went on a mini tirade about a GS analyst downgrading TRID on their diminished outlook. It seems I was proven right today (for at least a day). On this horrendous day, TRID shot up 12.7% as GNSS (a competitor) was taken over for a 60& premium (Trident Rebounds on Value Prospects). The point is the same point I made yesterday. Even when the near-term outlook is diminished, there is a price at which a stock is a good value.

TGIS was also up 11% and so my day was nowhere close as bad as the broader market. Maybe the clouds are starting to lift.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Above the Green Line

Almost exactly one month after my Below the Green Line post, I can state that I am once again in the black after a very uplifting day. It was a pretty deep dip. On my weekly charts you can see I went about 30K under water. On my daily charts, I show I dropped about 43K in the red. So yes, it has been a wild ride.

But today reminded me of the scene from Return of the King, when the skies were still thick with smoke and grime but the good guys noticed that the wind had changed. I say that because this could easily have been a bad day. Two of my stocks dropped more than 10% (USHS & TRID). But despite that handicap, the portfolio still outperformed the benchmark.

The TRID bloodbath really bothered me (Trident stock drops on analyst comments). GS took them off their highly recommend sheet. Well, if they were so smart, why were they there in the 1st place? The stock is down over 50% since GS said buy. Now that they've dropped 50% and announced that the next year may be a little rough, GS downgrades them?? Kind of like shutting the gate after the proverbial colt has left. But what I really don't understand is why a bunch of lemmings would sell TRID after the analyst opinion. I expect it is a buying opportunity, but I have been wrong before.

The USHS still has me puzzled. It was on 4x usual volume, but still light (115K shares) in the grand scheme. I just have to assume (for the time) that people went a little nuts and they'll bounce back.

UG (great stock symbol) announced a 28 cent dividend as they are having a record year (United-Guardian Announces Semi-Annual Cash Dividend). Got a big ho-hum from the market, but I can live with a 5.6% yield while I wait for the stock price to appreciate.

CHKE announced their earnings today (Cherokee Inc. Reports Record 3rd Quarter Revenues). They reported at 3pm and then promptly went up 5%. You could have made some "Fast Money" had you been ready. This is not exactly a high growth company, but they are saying positive things about their intl prospects (hope they're paid in Euros!).

Howard Siegel, President of Cherokee, stated, We are pleased with our results for the Third Quarter, fueled by the continued growth of our international royalty revenues due to the successful expansion of our business through our Cherokee World Brand strategy.

I keep expecting them to pare back their 75 cent dividend (9% annual) as that is subsidized in part by a one time windfall. Hope that doesn't hurt the stock when it happens.

Hmmm, hot off the wire: Lam Research to Buy SEZ Group for $568M Hope this is good news! Usually the buyer tends to drop after something like this is announced. Says "neutral to slightly accretive" so that is good. They are a Swiss company traded on the Swiss Stock Exchange.

My portfolio of 10 stocks under $10 had a terrific day as well, up 2.4%. Is the wind changing?


Friday, December 07, 2007

Inching Up

It was my best week in a while. The Tuesday after Thanksgiving my portfolio hit rock bottom, about $43,000 below break-even. Today I closed about $3,000 below break-even. Still in the red, but inching up.

I actually created a portfolio of ten stocks at $10 or lower to start tracking. They were up 1.8% today in a totally flat day. So the pendulum may be beginning to swing back a bit. I'll print my graphs and charts a bit later.

I renewed TGIS in my portfolio for another year. It has been a big disappointment, ending up down about 27%. By my approach, I move that into my "closed" bucket and treat it as a new purchase in my tracking (though I obviously did not actually sell and buy it). TGIS is not officially on the list, but that seems to me to be a data glich as they have one iitem marked "n/a" on their financials. I went in and got the actual number and plugged it in.

My next stock to "mature" will be PACR, which has been an absolute disaster (down 41%). It is still on most lists and I may keep it... we'll see, I might go for a tax loss. One stock I am considering is IAR (strange made-up name of Idearac). This is a new company that went public a bit more than a year ago. They have dropped since July from over $35 to about $18. They now pay a 7.7% dividend and Barron's profiled them as a stock worth considering (A Risky But Rewarding Dividend Play).

They are a boring company, publishing yellow pages. Though they also have an online presence with Since they just went public, I expect they are one of these companies taken private by pivate equity, given a make-over (lots of lipstick and eye shadow) and then sold back to the public.

The big issue (that I see) with IAR is that they have a ton of debt. Over $9b for a company with a market cap under $3b. That being said, debt for a company is not entirely bad. It is a cheaper way to raise funds than issuing stock and if you have a steady cash flow you'll be ok. They have had very steady financials for the 5 quarters I looked at. I suppose the yellow page business could go south witha recession or people will spend a greater and greater proportion of advertising $ on Google etc. But I remember DLX last year at about $15 (certainly old time company printing paper checks) and it has doubled since. So there is still $ to be made in the old economy. I don't know. It'll be on my watch list. They do seem cheap, though they spiked about 10% today.

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
TGB 3/27/2007 $2.64 $4.73 79.2%
MSTR 9/14/2007 $69.55 $102.75 47.7%
VSNT 7/27/2007 $19.54 $26.99 38.1%
KFY 9/28/2007 $16.74 $19.78 18.2%
TRID 11/28/2007 $6.24 $6.95 11.4%
JTX 4/9/2007 $28.70 $31.46 10.9%
TCK 8/16/2007 $36.50 $38.93 6.7%
KG 11/19/2007 $10.10 $10.68 5.7%
HGG 8/3/2007 $13.48 $14.16 5.0%
DGX 3/17/2007 $52.11 $54.40 5.0%
ACN 11/28/2007 $34.28 $35.44 3.4%
LCAV 11/9/2007 $17.59 $18.00 3.4%
KSW 5/10/2007 $6.54 $6.73 3.0%
THO 12/6/2007 $38.61 $38.02 2.2%
HOC 11/29/2007 $47.64 $48.21 1.2%
TGIS 12/7/2007 $6.42 $6.47 0.8%
LRCX 7/3/2007 $47.51 $47.20 -0.7%
PNCL 2/9/2007 $17.07 $16.29 -4.6%
VALU 5/29/2007 $44.01 $40.99 -5.5%
HSII 10/5/2007 $39.92 $35.87 -9.8%
CHKE 7/17/2007 $36.70 $31.22 -10.8%
UG 6/13/2007 $12.09 $10.64 -12.0%
RAIL 2/16/2007 $45.54 $37.05 -18.2%
AEO 7/10/2007 $28.42 $22.21 -21.2%
CHCG.OB 6/5/2007 $5.93 $4.27 -27.9%
BBSI 9/7/2007 $24.13 $17.06 -29.0%
WSTG 5/15/2007 $14.98 $10.02 -30.4%
NOOF 4/27/2007 $8.59 $4.98 -39.1%
WNR 7/27/2007 $46.22 $27.84 -39.7%
PACR 1/3/2007 $25.46 $14.77 -40.7%
USHS 6/25/2007 $11.22 $5.90 -47.4%
GVHR 10/12/2007 $15.91 $5.15 -66.4%

Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): ($42,517)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): -6.8%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): $39,416
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): 5.6%
Total Gain/Loss ($): ($3,101)
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): $69,648
Annual IRR: -0.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%): -0.5%

Thursday, December 06, 2007

I Could Get Used to This

Not sure, but this might have been my best day of the year. Up 2.5%. The day started well, even before the bell rang.

KFY - announced very good earnings (Korn/Ferry International Announces a 26% Increase in Fee Revenue in the Second Quarter of Fiscal 2008). This is a stock that before today was trading at $16.73 at the open, down from over $27 earlier this year. They were up $2 today on the news.

Then the stock gods must have been scratching their heads as well over THO. It was up 10% today. That was doubly nice as I had bought additional THO on the side (not that that helped my MFI).

TRID - one blogger thinks TRID may get bought out (Trident Micro's Likely to Be Snapped Up by a Larger Competitor ). They are very cheap, so it seems a reasonable thought.

VSNT was up another 4% after their big 20% move on Wednesday.

Not much else to say. Another day like this and I'll be out of the red and back in the black. That would be very nice.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Cramer Says Buy AEO?

Cramer today said in his "Stop Trading" segment to buy AEO (American Eagle Could Fly). Or did he? I am not part of Cramerica, but I do watch his show occassionally and read some of his posts as he sometimes has an idea that strikes my fancy. Here is what he said beyond the headline:

American Eagle (AEO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) might be ready to take off, Jim Cramer said on CNBC's "Stop Trading!" segment Wednesday.

"I like this stock. It hasn't made us any money, [but] I think it's very cheap," Cramer said. "This kind of stock could have a multiyear turn like Abercrombie (ANF - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). It hasn't had it yet, though."

When push comes to shove, though, Cramer is hesitant: "There's so many other retailers I actually like much more."

Excuse me? Why does he bother to profile a stock, just to tell us at the end that there are many retailers he likes "much more"? Oh well.

Speaking of AEO, they announced their same store sales were flat in November (American Eagle Sales Flat). Hard to be pleased about that, but with the stock over 30% off it's 52 week high, I'd say low expectations are baked in. But even with flat same store sales, their overall sales are up 16%. So it is not exactly a no growth story.

As I profiled yesterday, it was indeed a bullish day for VSNT. I can't tell you how nice it was to have good news for a change. Up 21%, one of the leaders in the overall market today.

THO had some good news as well (Thor Backlog Rises, Sends Stock Higher). Their back log is 19% higher than last year. The stock didn't really "rise" much more than the general market, the headline seemed a little deceiving. This has been a "little" deceiving stock for some time. I suppose the "smart money" is worried about the impact of higher gas prices on RV sales. That being said, you have demographics in their favor and they are selling obviously well as they just had a very solid quarter. Yet the stock has dropped from $50 to $35 in just the past month. That is a real head-scratcher for me. Maybe someone reading this blog can explain why THO has dropped so much in the face of strong sales and strong backlog.

Finally, KFY announces earnings tomorrow. This stock has gone absolutely nowhere since I bought it (which makes it sadly one of my best stocks). I thought HSII had good earnings last month... we'll see what KFY has to say.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Hooray Versant!

Hasn't been much to cheer about lately, thought I'd focus on something positive.

VSNT seems like a classic MFI stock (think Jason's Bubble Gum). Small company, cheap, seems to have a competitve advantage and is growing. Wow.

My records have VSNT first appearing on the lists Aug 31, 2006 with a market cap of 30m. Six months later it had doubled with a market cap of 65m. It closed today at $77m. I don't think they're done. They announced earnings during happy hour this evening (Versant Announces Record Quarterly Net Income of $2.1 Million). In HH trading, they're up about 12%.

Their numbers were very good and they ended FY 07 making $2.06 per share (they had guided between $1.87 and $1.89). In addition they said that 2008 will have 13% growth and eps of $2.50. Given that they seem to "under-promise", the actual numbers could be better. They have decent visibility as the get a lot of revenues from licenses. If you assume they should trade at 13x earnings then that would put their price a year from now around $32. Today they are at $22.

Finally, they also have a bunch of cash, so the credit crunch should not be a factor. Over $19m in cash (a lot for a 77m company) compared to just $8m a year ago. All that cash did make me wonder what they're going to do with it. They did give a little hint:

"The Company currently estimates net income of approximately $9.5 million for fiscal 2008, resulting in estimated diluted net income per share of approximately $2.50 for fiscal 2008, based on the Company's current capitalization."

I think that suggests a stock repurchase or one time dividend.

Not much other news. GVHR dropped 5% after their 20% rise yesterday post the upgrade. I think a decent strategy would be to sell stocks the days of upgrades. They seem to invariably give back some of their one day gains.

Monday, December 03, 2007

United We Fall

I mentioned in my last blog that I sold UNTD pre-maturely as I thought they had gone up too quickly with the hype. I sold them around $17.50. Today they dropped about 15% to $12.72. While I felt a week ago they were overbought, the current price seems way oversold. Not that I'll be buying them back.

GVHR, it is all about when you bought them. Friday would have been a good day for example. Up a snappy 20% today. Sadly I bought them back in March and am still down 70%, even after today's gain.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Portfolio Changes

A lot going on, sorry about not posting for a while. I have made some changes to my portfolio, some planned and some not.
  • I sold IVAC as planned, it goes down as my biggest $ loser MFI stock.
  • I sold AXCA as they got bought (Axcan Pharma Fetches $1.3 Billion).
  • I sold UNTD as I felt they had gotten over-bought with hype of classmates IPO (they dropped $2 since.
  • I sold KSWS for some tax losses for 2007.
  • I bought ACN at $34.25 as they seem really cheap.
  • I bought TRID at $6.25 as they expect to make $1 next year AND they have $3 per share in cash.
  • I bought HOC as refiners have been oversold at $47.
Whew! Did get some good news for CHCG as they bumped up their guidance (China 3C Raises Full Year Profit Guidance for 2007). They have gone up about 30% since then. I saw where someone said to sell them around $3.50 a share (down from $8) because their third quarter grew but not as much as hoped. People need to understand that this is a small Chinese retailer, not Wal Mart and their results will be unpredictable for many years... both ways I suspect.

KG has already gone up a bit since I bought them. I think the recent buyouts of AXCA and ASPV are waking people to the reality that these pharmas (King Pharma options up on takeover talk-analysts) are cheap (VPHM went up nicely last few days as well).

Enough chatter. Here are my current stocks and my current graph. For those who haven't seen the graph, the magenta line shows the cumulative gains/losses of my portfolio. The green line is break even and the blue line is the Russell 3000. I am getting whipped pretty good, but did bounce back a lot the final two days in past week:

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
TGB 3/27/2007 $2.64 $4.69 77.7%
MSTR 9/14/2007 $69.55 $100.85 45.0%
JTX 4/9/2007 $28.70 $32.25 13.6%
VSNT 7/27/2007 $19.54 $21.12 8.1%
DGX 3/17/2007 $52.11 $55.06 6.2%
KG 11/19/2007 $10.10 $10.59 4.9%
TCK 8/16/2007 $36.50 $38.21 4.7%
HGG 8/3/2007 $13.48 $14.05 4.2%
KFY 9/28/2007 $16.74 $17.23 2.9%
KSW 5/10/2007 $6.54 $6.71 2.7%
HOC 11/29/2007 $47.64 $48.45 1.7%
ACN 11/28/2007 $34.28 $34.56 0.8%
TRID 11/28/2007 $6.24 $6.28 0.6%
LRCX 7/3/2007 $47.51 $45.85 -3.5%
VALU 5/29/2007 $44.01 $41.36 -4.7%
PNCL 2/9/2007 $17.07 $16.26 -4.7%
THO 4/2/2007 $40.30 $35.25 -7.4%
LCAV 11/9/2007 $17.59 $16.26 -7.6%
HSII 10/5/2007 $39.92 $36.27 -8.8%
CHKE 7/17/2007 $36.70 $31.51 -10.1%
TGIS 11/30/2006 $9.18 $7.43 -16.9%
UG 6/13/2007 $12.09 $10.01 -17.2%
AEO 7/10/2007 $28.42 $22.89 -18.8%
RAIL 2/16/2007 $45.54 $33.97 -25.0%
WSTG 5/15/2007 $14.98 $10.70 -25.9%
BBSI 9/7/2007 $24.13 $16.38 -31.8%
WNR 7/27/2007 $46.22 $28.90 -37.4%
CHCG.OB 6/5/2007 $5.93 $3.65 -38.4%
NOOF 4/27/2007 $8.59 $4.85 -40.6%
PACR 1/3/2007 $25.46 $13.76 -44.7%
USHS 6/25/2007 $11.22 $6.00 -46.5%
GVHR 10/12/2007 $15.91 $4.25 -72.0%

Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): ($67,387)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): -11.0%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): $44,992
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): 6.6%
Total Gain/Loss ($): ($22,395)
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): $58,522
Annual IRR: -3.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%): -3.9%