Sunday, December 31, 2017

Flashback

Flashback

Well, it is a very very cold New Year's Eve.  I took a walk at about 11 this morning and it was 12 degrees.  Now at 3 pm it is 8 degrees.  I have a nice fire going, watching some meaningless NFL games and thought I'd do a flashback.

Let us take a look at some of my expired MFI Select Portfolios and see how the stocks have fared since then.  I have outperformed with those picks... but would the outperformance have continued?  I have my doubts... but let's flashback!

First portfolio. August 2012:


 8/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DLB  $34.43 $33.04 $4.00 7.6% 22.1%
 KFY  $13.98 $18.95 $0.00 35.6% 22.1%
 MSFT  $30.19 $31.92 $0.92 8.8% 22.1%
 NSU  $3.62 $3.33 $0.12 -4.6% 22.1%
 UIS  $19.96 $24.52 $0.00 22.8% 22.1%
 Totals  14.1% 22.1%


That was how the portfolio ended in August 2013.  Now let us look from 2013 to current:


 8/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DLB  $33.04 $62.00 $1.66 92.7% 48.8%
 KFY  $18.95 $41.38 $1.20 124.7% 48.8%
 MSFT  $31.92 $85.54 $5.61 185.6% 48.8%
 NSU  $3.33 $2.41 $0.72 -6.0% 48.8%
 UIS  $24.52 $8.15 $0.00 -66.8% 48.8%
 Totals  66.0% 48.8%

Wow, pretty impressive. Still a solid win.

Now November 2013. Here is the Portfolio that started Nov 2012:

 11/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $537.62 $527.28 $8.75 -0.3% 36.7%
 ABC  $40.21 $69.23 $0.86 74.3% 36.7%
 LPS  $23.89 $34.26 $0.40 45.1% 36.7%
 VIAB  $49.12 $80.94 $1.15 67.1% 36.7%
 WU  $12.77 $16.40 $0.50 32.3% 36.7%
 Totals  43.7% 36.7%

Now let's look since 11/13 (I will withhold LPS as they were bought):

 11/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $75.33 $169.23 $7.28 134.3% 52.5%
 ABC  $69.23 $91.82 $4.80 39.6% 52.5%
 LPS           n/a              n/a                n/a              n/a
 VIAB  $80.94 $30.81 $5.00 -55.8% 52.5%
 WU  $16.40 $19.01 $2.55 31.5% 52.5%
 Totals  37.4% 52.5%
The VIAB stinker just too much to overcome.

Now February 2013-14

 2/1/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $450.60 $500.66 $8.75 13.1% 21.1%
 GA  $6.10 $11.01 $0.65 91.2% 21.1%
 STRZA  $16.06 $27.98 $0.00 74.2% 21.1%
 CA  $25.07 $32.08 $1.00 32.0% 21.1%
 NUS  $41.94 $116.59 $1.20 180.8% 21.1%
 Totals  78.3% 21.1%

That was a great tranche.  GA was bought not long thereafter, so I will exclude.


 2/1/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $71.52 $169.23 $8.75 148.8% 52.7%
 STRZA  $27.98 $35.52 $0.00 26.9% 52.7%
 CA  $32.08 $33.28 $3.50 14.7% 52.7%
 NUS  $116.59 $68.23 $4.76 -37.4% 52.7%
 Totals  38.3% 52.7%

Once again, a stinker is enough to drag down results.


Now May 2013-14:

 5/6/2013   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 KLIC  $11.40 $14.44 $0.00 26.7% 18.9%
 CYOU  $29.24 $28.02 $0.00 -4.2% 18.9%
 RDA  $9.74 $16.79 $0.10 73.5% 18.9%
 NVDA  $13.85 $18.43 $0.32 35.4% 18.9%
 CF  $183.97 $243.22 $2.80 33.7% 18.9%
 Totals  33.0% 18.9%

Well, this one will be terrific with NVDA.  I will drop RDA as they were bought.

 5/6/2014  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 KLIC  $14.44 $24.35 $0.00 68.6% 45.4%
 CYOU  $28.02 $36.43 $0.00 30.0% 45.4%
 NVDA  $18.43 $193.50 $1.61 958.7% 45.4%
 CF  $48.64 $42.54 $4.20 -3.9% 45.4%
 Totals  263.3% 45.4%

Well, NVDA did help.  So first year flashback in total:

Good Guys 101.3% Russell 3000: 49.9%.

Now let us look at next 4 (then I'll quit).


 8/15/2013   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CF  $187.26 $247.43 $4.50 34.5% 19.4%
 FLR  $66.06 $73.03 $0.53 11.4% 19.4%
 AGX  $15.60 $36.71 $0.75 140.1% 19.4%
 KLIC  $11.29 $14.26 $0.00 26.3% 19.4%
 RPXC  $15.92 $15.09 $0.00 -5.2% 19.4%
 Totals  41.4% 19.4%
And then running to current:

 8/15/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CF  $49.49 $42.54 $3.90 -6.2% 41.7%
 FLR  $73.03 $51.65 $2.94 -25.2% 41.7%
 AGX  $36.71 $45.00 $3.40 31.8% 41.7%
 KLIC  $14.26 $24.35 $0.00 70.8% 41.7%
 RPXC  $15.09 $13.44 $0.00 -10.9% 41.7%
 Totals  12.1% 41.7%
Hmm, we get stomped. No NVDA to rescue us.

 11/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $17.22 $19.21 $0.00 11.6% 14.5%
 ATVI  $17.71 $20.10 $0.20 14.6% 14.5%
 GA  $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 14.5%
 RPXC  $17.04 $13.91 $0.00 -18.4% 14.5%
 SYNA  $48.01 $61.90 $0.00 28.9% 14.5%
 Totals  14.2% 14.5%
Again, I'll drop GA. Here is going forward


 11/15/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $19.21 $25.05 $0.00 30.4% 35.9%
 ATVI  $20.10 $63.32 $0.79 219.0% 35.9%
 RPXC  $13.91 $13.44 $0.00 -3.4% 35.9%
 SYNA  $61.90 $39.44 $0.00 -36.3% 35.9%
 Totals  52.4% 35.9%

Activision saves the day!

Two to go. February 2014-15

 2/1/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ATVI  $17.13 $20.90 $0.20 23.1% 12.9%
 KLAC  $61.47 $61.47 $18.40 29.9% 12.9%
 RPXC  $16.22 $12.35 $0.00 -23.9% 12.9%
 SNDK  $69.55 $75.91 $0.83 10.3% 12.9%
 WNR  $39.11 $37.13 $3.04 2.7% 12.9%
 Totals  8.5% 12.9%

And rolling it forward:

 2/1/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ATVI  $20.90 $63.32 $0.56 205.7% 32.4%
 KLAC  $61.47 $105.07 $7.28 82.8% 32.4%
 RPXC  $12.35 $13.44 $0.00 8.8% 32.4%
 SNDK  $75.91 $76.18 $2.40 3.5% 32.4%
 WNR  $37.13 $36.18 $4.56 9.7% 32.4%
 Totals  62.1% 32.4%
ATVI again!  One last tranche to go in our flashback.


 5/6/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $19.57 $23.27 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
 CA  $29.54 $31.41 $1.00 9.7% 12.9%
 CSCO  $22.79 $28.89 $0.78 30.2% 12.9%
 NSR  $25.82 $30.69 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
 RCII  $28.78 $31.77 $0.94 13.7% 12.9%
 Totals  18.3% 12.9%
Ooh, this one won't be pretty.


 5/6/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $23.27 $25.05 $0.00 7.6% 32.0%
 CA  $31.41 $33.28 $2.50 13.9% 32.0%
 CSCO  $28.89 $38.30 $3.08 43.2% 32.0%
 NSR  $30.69 $33.50 $0.00 9.2% 32.0%
 RCII  $31.77 $11.10 $1.12 -61.5% 32.0%
 Totals  2.5% 32.0%
Yes, RCII has not fared well.  So in summary for 2nd set.

Good Guys: 32.3%
Russell 3000:  35.5%

Pretty close, but edged out.