Saturday, December 23, 2017

Weekend Update - MFI Diary 12/23/17

Weekend Update 12/23/17

Well, since it is December 23rd, I clearly need to wish all my readers, young and old, Happy Festivus!  Feel free to air your grievances in the comments section.  :)

You have found your way to the MFI Diary.  This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market.  I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl Guide To New Readers).  (PS - let me know, in the grievance section, if this link does not work). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Promised Santa From last week
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Any opinions you read are my own unless they end up being really bad.

The Past Week

It was a very solid week for me, up about 1% overall while the benchmark was pretty much flat.  Thus, for me at least, there was a Santa Claus rally!  Hoozah! The table below shows how everything is standing as we head into a well-deserved three day weekend.


 Component   YTD   4th Q 
 Overall  +16.18% +2.35%
 MFI Select  +38.19% +11.25%
 MFI Formula  +19.49% +9.06%
 Miscellaneous  +3.19% -3.56%
 Dividend  +13.22% -0.53%
 R3K  +20.60% +6.13%
 MFI Index  +5.81% +1.47%
 GARIX  +10.31% +5.17%


The keen-eyed reader will note my MFI Select and Miscellaneous (finally!) portfolios had a good week.  Here are how the individual stocks in my two real money MFI portfolios did during the week:


 Portfolio   Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 Formula   SYNT              25.57         24.73                       -   -3.3%
 Formula   HPQ              20.92         21.26                       -   1.6%
 Formula   GILD              75.57         72.71                       -   -3.8%
 Formula   CSCO              38.19         38.55                       -   0.9%
 Formula   OMC              74.41         73.61                       -   -1.1%
 Formula   GME              18.34         18.29                       -   -0.3%
 Formula   CA              33.71         33.52                       -   -0.6%
 Formula   DIN              49.13         49.95                       -   1.7%
 Formula   TGNA              22.71         24.04                       -   5.9%
 Formula   BKE              22.70         23.90                       -   5.3%
 Formula   RGR              52.50         55.20                       -   5.1%

I know this actually looks pretty good (this is my Formula portfolio), but recall the stocks are listed from largest holding to smallest (generally).  So sadly, my three big winners on the week (TGNA, BKE and RGR) are also the three smallest holdings.  And the two worst (SYNT and GILD) are amongst my largest holdings (sniff).  So this is basically breakeven even though the straight average is up 1%.


 Portfolio   Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 Select   SIMO              52.96         52.89                       -   -0.1%
 Select   MSGN              19.80         20.30                       -   2.5%
 Select   YY            108.54       114.60                       -   5.6%
 Select   CELG            109.41       106.33                       -   -2.8%
 Select   EVC                7.50            7.40                       -   -1.3%
 Select   ICHR              25.18         25.07                       -   -0.4%
 Select   AKRX              32.36         32.08                       -   -0.9%
 Select   VIAB              30.24         32.23                       -   6.6%
 Select   RHI              55.26         55.68                       -   0.8%
 Select   MD              51.10         53.52                       -   4.7%
 Select   QCOM              64.76         64.73                       -   0.0%
 Select   KLAC            105.63       109.32                       -   3.5%
 Select   TIME              18.50         18.55                       -   0.3%
 Select   GHC            565.85       558.20                       -   -1.4%
 Select   WNC              19.31         20.92                       -   8.3%
 Select   RGR              52.50         55.20                       -   5.1%
 Select   TGNA              22.71         24.04                       -   5.9%

Here, I had some decent gainers amongst my larger holdings (YY) and this portfolio is not quite as concentrated (recall in my formula portfolio I pick via random # generator and can/will get multiple positions).  So I was up almost 2 points on the week.

MFI Select

As my readers know,  I have two real money MFI portfolios: (1) Select and (2) Formula.  For the Select portfolio, I have 4 tranches of stocks, with each tranche having 5 stocks.  So up to 20 stocks at any time.  I have been running this portfolio since August 2012 after a one year hiatus where I quit MFI investing for a year out of frustration with sub par gains (seeing that again this year - if you look at my MFI Index in blue box above, you'll note my Index, 50 stocks from start of year, is up less than 6%).  Anyway, I regrouped, had a good think and started fresh in August 2012.  As the "Select" name suggests, I can pretty much select any stocks I want.  I even run my own screens, so not just tied to official screen. (I publish top 200 from my internal screen here once a month or so). Here is how the portfolio has done month by month (assuming it started out with $100,000 spread evenly over the four tranches):


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
12/1/2016 45.92%        202,775            156,859
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
2/1/2017 45.20%        212,330            167,146
3/1/2017 48.80%        222,583            173,829
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
5/1/2017 55.80%        231,497            175,712
6/1/2017 53.40%        230,599            177,203
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
8/1/2017 57.76%        239,924            182,163
9/1/2017 68.85%        251,265            182,419
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
11/1/2017 68.17%        259,061            190,888
12/1/2017 84.17%        280,887            196,716
Current 95.89%        294,446            198,560

It has been a skyrocket this year, up from 209,503 to $294,446.  That is 41%.  It now lead the benchmark (Russell 3000) by almost 96 percentage points... which is about a $100,000 lead.  So the reboot has been a success.  Is it just lucky? Or is it working?  You always wonder.

Here are the current open tranches:


2/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AKRX  $19.10 $32.08 $0.00 68.0% 18.5%
 YY  $41.08 $114.60 $0.00 179.0% 18.5%
 KLAC  $85.11 $109.32 $2.26 31.1% 18.5%
 WNC  $17.65 $20.92 $0.18 19.5% 18.5%
 RGR  $52.75 $55.20 $1.36 7.2% 18.5%
 Totals  61.0% 18.5%
5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.50 $0.00 -2.7% 12.4%
 TGNA  $25.75 $24.04 $0.21 -5.8% 12.4%
 TIME  $15.05 $18.55 $0.08 23.8% 12.4%
 MSGN  $23.55 $20.30 $0.00 -13.8% 12.4%
 QCOM  $54.93 $64.73 $1.71 21.0% 12.4%
 Totals  4.5% 12.4%
8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $558.20 $1.27 -5.4% 9.4%
 ICHR  $19.80 $25.07 $0.00 26.6% 9.4%
 MD  $43.00 $53.52 $0.00 24.5% 9.4%
 SIMO  $43.05 $52.89 $0.30 23.6% 9.4%
 RHI  $44.15 $55.68 $0.48 27.2% 9.4%
 Totals  19.3% 9.4%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $20.30 $0.00 21.8% 4.3%
 CELG  $100.60 $106.33 $0.00 5.7% 4.3%
 EVC  $5.78 $7.40 $0.05 28.9% 4.3%
 SIMO  $46.88 $52.89 $0.00 12.8% 4.3%
 VIAB  $24.41 $32.23 $0.20 32.9% 4.3%
 Totals  20.4% 4.3%

Three of the four are solid beats.  And even May has made a great comeback.  You will see I have doubled down on a few stocks like MSGN and SIMO.  The key (in my view) has been to avoid stinker stocks, which I define as losing 30% or more.  These are often stocks that do not have sustainable earnings (as seen through my backtesting), so my number 1 criteria is looking to see whether earnings are driven by one or two unsustainable blips.

Here is a table that shows aggregate results of all my tranches as well as annualized IRR:


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  19.3% 20.4% 61.0% 4.5% 24.7%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 10.7% 19.1% 23.6%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% -14.3% -25.2% -7.2%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 26.8%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  119.9% 416.2% 195.4% 46.4% 194.4%
 Current Balance         54,971           129,038           73,841        36,596         294,446
 R3K Current Tranche  9.4% 4.3% 18.5% 12.4% 11.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  109.5% 113.8% 91.6% 79.3% 98.6%
 R3K Balance         52,382             53,442           47,908        44,828         198,560
 Annualized IRR  15.8% 37.9% 24.8% 8.6% 21.8%

So you can see my four current tranches are up an aggregate 24.7% versus R3K 11.1%.  A very satisfactory margin.

MFI Formula

This is my second portfolio of real money.  As the name suggests, this approach is formulaic.  I lay it out and give an example in my post earlier this week (Final week for 12/31/16 tranche in sidebar on left).  Same tables.


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
12/1/2016 1.62%        110,705            109,088
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
2/1/2017 1.32%        114,809            113,486
3/1/2017 -5.09%        112,930            118,024
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
5/1/2017 1.11%        120,403            119,296
6/1/2017 -2.65%        117,824            120,472
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
8/1/2017 -1.96%        121,873            123,828
9/1/2017 -6.09%        117,879            123,973
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
11/1/2017 -3.85%        125,890            129,739
12/1/2017 -0.97%        132,616            133,585
Current -0.66%        134,173            134,837

You'll note I started this approach in October 2014.  So far it is a dead heat with the Russell benchmark.  It is way out performing MFI in general. I still have faith in it (actually both approaches).  I have increased my $ to MFI by about 35% in 2017 and will do the same in 2018.  So I am truly eating my own cooking.

Here are the four open tranches (just 4 trading days left on first one):


 
12/30/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GILD  $71.69 $72.71 $2.08 4.3% 20.5%
 HPQ  $15.00 $21.26 $0.53 45.3% 20.5%
 TGNA  $21.33 $24.04 $0.35 14.4% 20.5%
 CA  $31.99 $33.52 $1.02 8.0% 20.5%
 SYNT  $19.79 $24.73 $0.00 25.0% 20.5%
 Totals  19.4% 20.5%
4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $23.90 $0.75 33.6% 14.2%
 CSCO  $33.76 $38.55 $0.87 16.8% 14.2%
 GILD  $67.50 $72.71 $1.56 10.0% 14.2%
 OMC  $85.53 $73.61 $1.65 -12.0% 14.2%
 SYNT  $16.76 $24.73 $0.00 47.5% 14.2%
 Totals  19.2% 14.2%
7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $38.55 $0.29 25.4% 10.9%
 GME  $20.95 $18.29 $0.76 -9.1% 10.9%
 HPQ  $17.60 $21.26 $0.27 22.3% 10.9%
 RGR  $60.70 $55.20 $0.44 -8.3% 10.9%
 SYNT  $16.21 $24.73 $0.00 52.6% 10.9%
 Totals  16.6% 10.9%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $49.95 $0.97 18.0% 6.2%
 GILD  $82.85 $72.71 $0.52 -11.6% 6.2%
 GME  $20.50 $18.29 $0.38 -8.9% 6.2%
 HPQ  $20.22 $21.26 $0.13 5.8% 6.2%
 OMC  $74.80 $73.61 $0.55 -0.9% 6.2%
 Totals  0.5% 6.2%


Looking at stock names here, you will see more multiple stocks than "Select".  I think I have SYNT 3 times.  This happens as typically the filter only leaves 9 to 14 stocks and then I randomly pick five.  Many quarters have duplicate stocks (like CSCO is almost always on list).

Then here is table showing aggregate results:


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  0.5% 19.4% 19.2% 16.6% 14.0%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 16.5%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 1.0%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
 MFI Overall Gain  14.0% 44.8% 48.8% 29.3% 34.2%
 Current Balance      284,680        361,916     372,301      322,835      1,341,732
 R3K Current Tranche  6.2% 20.5% 14.2% 10.9% 12.9%
 R3K Overall Gain  42.4% 34.6% 33.3% 29.1% 34.9%
 R3K Balance      355,865        336,530     333,463      322,506      1,348,364
 Annualized IRR  4.1% 13.2% 15.7% 10.9% 11.0%

I am ok with 11% annualized IRR and encouraged that current tranches are beating the benchmark 14.0% to 12.9%.  As I said, next week my new tranche will get 35% bump in investment dollars (I will actually start new tranche on January 2nd).

Dividend Portfolio

If you are here to read about my Magic Formula thoughts, I am done.  I will now talk about my other two portfolios, Dividends and Miscellaneous.  My Dividend is actually my largest portfolio.  I am retired and it has the purpose of spinning off income for my retirement.

So I am not as focused on capital gains as income.  I will also be the first to admit that I do stretch a bit for yield - so this is not a widows and orphans dividend portfolio (note I keep right now a 40% cash hoard, as market is extended... though that may drop to 30% by end of 2018 when I increase MFI allotment).  Here is how my portfolio shapes up, I did make one change this week - selling GLDI and buying AMID.


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   9/30/17 Price   Yield 
 OIBAX      5.91         5.94      0.17 3.3% 0.3%           5.95 4.0%
 KCLI    48.89       45.10      0.33 -7.1% -1.1%        49.75 2.4%
 KNOP    21.30       20.30           -   -4.7% 0.2%        21.44 10.2%
 TK      6.20         9.18      0.08 49.5% 0.4%           8.93 2.4%
 CPLP      3.54         3.39      0.08 -1.9% 0.9%           3.50 9.4%
 JQC      8.18         8.20      0.62 7.9% 0.5%           8.49 7.0%
 ISBC    13.25       14.02      0.15 7.0% -0.8%        13.64 2.6%
 EVG    14.46       14.25      0.33 0.8% 1.8%        14.24 6.4%
 LADR    13.01       13.60      0.62 9.3% -0.9%        13.78 9.3%
 FDEU    18.40       18.95      0.82 7.4% 1.0%        19.42 7.7%
 NS    37.98       29.65      0.82 -19.8% -2.9%        40.59 14.8%
 TGP    17.89       20.05           -   12.1% 3.9%        17.85 2.8%
 RLJ-PA    28.45       27.50      0.49 -1.6% 0.4%        27.82 7.1%
 PSXP    47.39       52.04      1.03 12.0% 4.4%        52.56 5.0%
 NRZ    16.56       18.28      0.67 14.4% -0.1%        16.73 10.9%
 SBRA    22.28       18.71      0.91 -11.9% -6.0%        21.94 9.6%
 RILY    15.58       18.55      0.21 20.4% -3.4%        17.05 0.9%
 DSL    19.47       20.15      1.80 12.8% 0.1%        21.25 8.9%
 OCSI      8.68         8.60      0.38 3.5% 1.1%           8.80 8.8%
 TGONF    11.04       13.65      1.79 39.9% 3.6%        12.80 5.1%
 AMID    13.25       13.35           -   0.8% 0.8%        13.25 12.4%
 DHF      3.34         3.33      0.19 5.2% 0.6%           3.53 8.5%
 MAC    65.01       65.20           -   0.3% -0.4%        65.01 4.5%
 O    25.61       55.85    20.93 199.8% -2.7%        57.19 4.6%
 Totals  5.9% 0.2% 6.6%

So up 20 basis points.  My new dividend index was down 50 basis points, so can't be unhappy with that.  I moved to AMID as GLDI is a gold play and I now have a gold portfolio under Misc.  Also, I note MLPs have really been beaten down in 2017 and tax loss selling seems to have  exacerbated that down the stretch.  With AMID (and NS) I expect them to start bouncing back after that abates.


Miscellaneous

It probably is not an uplifting thing to do, but I track (often) how stocks do after I sell them.  And while my Misc approach has struggled, stocks that I have sold from my Miscellaneous portfolio have spiked post my selling.  Here are some examples of the best ones:

BAC Warrants:    +28%
SN:                      +18%
LPG:                   +14%
GNRT:                 +30%
SBLK                   +17%
URA:                   +8%
OSTK:                  +29%
BLDR:                  +24%
FIX:                      +22%
KR:                       +37%
ITEK:                    +180%  (can't believe that one)

Obviously some of gone down... but in aggregate this "sold" portfolio would be close to my best portfolio.

So that suggests I am better at picking stocks than deciding when to sell.  It made me think about my recent posting from Deep Value book about Contrarian approach (do the opposite - link in left sidebar).

So I took a big breathe this week and actually added significantly (usually more than doubling) my five positions I am always thinking about selling: EXXI, AUPH, OMER, SGYP and SELB.  Please note that these are all highly speculative positions.  I generally don't list my speculative holdings as I would feel terrible if readers lost money by following me.  I am taking the risk with eyes wide open.  I did get a good start as EXXI popped about 10% on Friday.

Finally, I do have two "baskets" in my Misc holdings: (1) small banks and (2) gold/mining companies.  The bank are smallish and generally trading at 1.40 or less of book value.  So my play is they are good acquisition targets and should do very well with tax reform.  The miners are my hedge against inflation, which I think is a risk.

 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          17.45                 -   2.7% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          26.00                 -   1.2% 2.3%
 FBIZ          23.69          22.51                 -   -5.0% 2.4%
 FULT          18.81          18.30                 -   -2.7% 3.4%
 FNB          14.47          14.23                 -   -1.7% 2.5%
 MSBI          32.96          32.10                 -   -2.6% 2.5%
 NRIM          37.47          35.00            0.21 -6.0% 4.1%
 PACW          48.30          50.44                 -   4.4% 2.0%
 SONA          17.13          16.07                 -   -6.2% 1.1%
 WNEB          10.88          10.85                 -   -0.3% 8.3%
 Total  -1.6% 2.9%

 Miner   Start   Current   Change 
 TORXF            9.90             9.42 -4.9%
 SAND            4.48             5.04 12.5%
 NSU            2.38             2.28 -4.2%
 KLDX            2.41             2.52 4.6%
 KL          14.49          14.73 1.7%
 GSS            0.87             0.85 -1.4%
 FSM            4.24             5.24 23.6%
 EXK            2.14             2.47 15.4%
 BTG            2.61             2.94 12.6%
 EGO            1.18             1.34 13.6%
 Total  7.3%

So that is it.  I will post a pretty extensive write up about 2017 next week.  I am very happy with where my overall holdings are.  I do plan to add to MFI in 2018, but I also plan to really, really stand pat next year. My New Year's resolution is no trades in January except for the kickoff of MFI tranche on the 2nd.

Have a great holiday season everybody!

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