Well, just a few trading days left on my MFI Formula tranche from 12/31/16. Always exciting. Reading through Tobias Carlisle's Deep Value book, he comments how many projections are better with just a formula. Even a formula with an expert reviewing the formula typically does not improve things.
Well, this is my formula. As regular readers know, my back testing has shown that if you (1) start with 50 stocks over $100m screen, (2) filter out the 33% smallest stocks and (3) then filter again for a 2.4% or greater dividend will give you very satisfactory results.
Here is the tranche coming up on anniversary:
| 12/30/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GILD | $71.69 | $73.02 | $2.08 | 4.8% | 20.5% |
| HPQ | $15.00 | $21.25 | $0.53 | 45.2% | 20.5% |
| TGNA | $21.33 | $24.11 | $0.35 | 14.7% | 20.5% |
| CA | $31.99 | $33.51 | $1.02 | 7.9% | 20.5% |
| SYNT | $19.79 | $24.92 | $0.00 | 25.9% | 20.5% |
| Totals | 19.7% | 20.5% |
Looks like I will probably get edged out at the wire. But who knows? Then here are the stocks for upcoming pick. I show this just as an example of how the formula works... I will re run it 12/31 for the actual picks.
Here is the 50 over 100m screen:
| Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| AMAG | 495 | 14.15 | - | 0.00% |
| AMCX | 3,521 | 57.17 | - | 0.00% |
| ABC | 20,435 | 92.99 | 1.46 | 1.57% |
| AMGN | 128,688 | 176.68 | 4.59 | 2.60% |
| AGX | 708 | 46.05 | 1.00 | 2.17% |
| BIVV | 5,811 | 53.93 | - | 0.00% |
| HRB | 5,823 | 26.70 | 0.94 | 3.53% |
| BPT | 432 | 20.45 | 3.60 | 17.62% |
| ABCD | 266 | 5.79 | - | 0.00% |
| CSCO | 191,802 | 38.53 | 1.13 | 2.92% |
| CNCE | 671 | 25.70 | - | 0.00% |
| CJREF | 1,846 | 9.04 | 0.88 | 9.73% |
| DLX | 3,651 | 76.11 | 1.19 | 1.56% |
| DHX | 101 | 2.05 | - | 0.00% |
| DIN | 892 | 49.70 | 3.88 | 7.81% |
| DISCA | 12,773 | 23.36 | - | 0.00% |
| EGRX | 857 | 54.78 | - | 0.00% |
| EVC | 678 | 7.40 | 0.16 | 2.19% |
| ESRX | 41,908 | 74.46 | - | 0.00% |
| GME | 1,849 | 18.45 | 1.52 | 8.24% |
| GILD | 96,731 | 73.02 | 2.09 | 2.86% |
| HSII | 468 | 25.05 | 0.52 | 2.09% |
| HPQ | 35,323 | 21.25 | 0.53 | 2.51% |
| INVA | 1,514 | 14.30 | - | 0.00% |
| IDCC | 2,671 | 76.85 | 1.24 | 1.61% |
| IPG | 7,830 | 20.23 | 0.72 | 3.57% |
| KLAC | 17,622 | 108.62 | 2.25 | 2.07% |
| MCFT | 432 | 23.20 | - | 0.00% |
| MPAA | 494 | 24.93 | - | 0.00% |
| MSGN | 1,527 | 20.55 | - | 0.00% |
| NHTC | 186 | 15.51 | 0.42 | 2.72% |
| NLS | 442 | 14.20 | - | 0.00% |
| EGOV | 1,174 | 17.50 | 0.32 | 1.85% |
| OMC | 17,059 | 74.08 | 2.26 | 3.05% |
| OPHT | 105 | 3.12 | - | 0.00% |
| PTN | 154 | 0.86 | - | 0.00% |
| PDLI | 448 | 2.88 | - | 0.00% |
| PCOA | 145 | 590.00 | 12.33 | 2.09% |
| PBI | 2,123 | 11.37 | 0.75 | 6.61% |
| SRNE | 265 | 3.15 | - | 0.00% |
| SP | 864 | 38.65 | - | 0.00% |
| SYNT | 2,118 | 24.92 | - | 0.00% |
| TGNA | 3,090 | 14.12 | 0.35 | 2.48% |
| MEET | 209 | 3.07 | - | 0.00% |
| TWX | 70,562 | 92.95 | 1.63 | 1.75% |
| TVTY | 1,412 | 36.45 | - | 0.00% |
| TRNC | 599 | 17.79 | - | 0.00% |
| UTHR | 6,218 | 134.94 | - | 0.00% |
| VEC | 357 | 32.89 | - | 0.00% |
| VIAB | 12,551 | 31.76 | 0.80 | 2.52% |
I always eyeball the list as dividends are sometimes wrong. I think TGNA should be 28 cents. The 33% percentile market cap is 646m. So with the two filters, we get to these stocks:
| Number | Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| 1 | AMGN | 128,688 | 176.68 | 4.59 | 2.60% |
| 2 | HRB | 5,823 | 26.70 | 0.94 | 3.53% |
| 3 | CSCO | 191,802 | 38.53 | 1.13 | 2.92% |
| 4 | CJREF | 1,846 | 9.04 | 0.88 | 9.73% |
| 5 | DIN | 892 | 49.70 | 3.88 | 7.81% |
| 6 | GME | 1,849 | 18.45 | 1.52 | 8.24% |
| 7 | GILD | 96,731 | 73.02 | 2.09 | 2.86% |
| 8 | HPQ | 35,323 | 21.25 | 0.53 | 2.51% |
| 9 | IPG | 7,830 | 20.23 | 0.72 | 3.57% |
| 10 | OMC | 17,059 | 74.08 | 2.26 | 3.05% |
| 11 | PBI | 2,123 | 11.37 | 0.75 | 6.61% |
| 12 | VIAB | 12,551 | 31.76 | 0.80 | 2.52% |
So 12 of the original 50 still in the running. I do, at this time, allow myself to throw out one "broken leg" stock should I care to do so. I will pass on that. So now I run a random number generator to get my five picks.
| Random # | Stock |
| 1 | AMGN |
| 11 | PBI |
| 10 | OMC |
| 9 | IPG |
| 12 | VIAB |
I could live with those picks.
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