Wednesday, January 01, 2020

2019 In Review

2019 In Review

Happy New Year to any followers still out there.  As you may have guessed, for the time being I have pretty much tossed in the towel on MFI.  I mean it just isn't working very well.

At some point I may start again.  I am old enough to remember 20 years ago when we had the dot com boom and everyone and their brother/sister was buying the "new" economy stocks and everyone was selling/bashing the "old"economy stocks.  Then we had the dot com bust and value/old economy stocks were suddenly back in vogue.

It feels to me very similar today ("It's Different This Time" can be a very dangerous phrase) with the "disruptors" and social media stocks, many not having business models that make a dime being bid to the moon.  So I have moved a large chunk of cash to the sidelines.  If I see a crash in the "disruptors", I will start nibbling at value stocks again.  But I at least owe my gentle readers a little tidy up on 2019.

2019 MFI Portfolios

While I largely sold my positions in May, I can certainly tell you how they would have done if I had held.  As readers may recall, I had two components, MFI Select and MFI Formula.  I'll show them in two ways: (1) assume I sold the stocks at the anniversary date and (2) assume I held stocks for all of 2019.

MFI Select

First, as a reminder,I had closed two MFI select tranches in 2019:

2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $42.29 $1.00 -0.6% -2.4%
 CASA  $18.81 $11.64 $0.00 -38.1% -2.4%
 KLAC  $109.80 $106.57 $2.84 -0.4% -2.4%
 THO  $136.33 $65.11 $1.52 -51.1% -2.4%
 WDC  $87.74 $44.99 $2.00 -46.4% -2.4%
 Totals  -27.3% -2.4%
5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $7.61 $0.00 -37.6% 12.1%
 TGNA  $10.51 $15.83 $0.28 53.3% 12.1%
 DISCA  $23.85 $30.89 $0.00 29.5% 12.1%
 FTSI  $19.39 $10.25 $0.00 -47.1% 12.1%
 ICHR  $21.96 $25.04 $0.00 14.0% 12.1%
 Totals  2.4% 12.1%

Neither one was all that great.

Here are the open 4 tranches assuming I held them all year:

8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $40.14 $1.25 4.9% 12.9%
 AMCX  $60.97 $39.50 $0.00 -35.2% 12.9%
 CJREF  $3.08 $4.09 $0.12 36.8% 12.9%
 GME  $15.50 $6.08 $1.14 -53.4% 12.9%
 SGH  $31.12 $37.94 $0.00 21.9% 12.9%
 Totals  -5.0% 12.9%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $40.14 $1.00 -4.7% 19.8%
 DXC  $62.00 $37.59 $0.38 -38.8% 19.8%
 MU  $38.49 $53.78 $8.25 61.2% 19.8%
 SGH  $29.67 $37.94 $0.00 27.9% 19.8%
 WDC  $44.92 $63.47 $2.00 45.7% 19.8%
 Totals  18.3% 19.8%
2/1/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $42.18 $40.14 $0.75 -3.1% 18.7%
 BBY  $58.84 $87.80 $0.50 50.1% 18.7%
 HPQ  $22.07 $20.55 $0.16 -6.1% 18.7%
 MU  $38.22 $53.78 $0.00 40.7% 18.7%
 RTN  $166.65 $181.41 $0.94 9.4% 18.7%
 VIAB  $29.40 $24.22 $0.40 -16.3% 18.7%
 WDC  $44.99 $63.47 $1.00 43.3% 18.7%
 Totals  16.9% 18.7%
5/2/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 FTSI  $10.25 $1.04 $0.00 -89.9% 10.2%
 DXC  $64.74 $37.59 $0.38 -41.4% 10.2%
 KHC  $31.84 $32.13 $0.80 3.4% 10.2%
 MO  $53.26 $49.91 $1.68 -3.1% 10.2%
 EAF  $11.34 $11.62 $0.13 3.6% 10.2%
 TGNA  $15.83 $14.77 $0.14 -5.8% 10.2%
 Totals  -22.2% 10.2%


Two absolute train wrecks with May and August.  I've been a bit lazy on the dividends,so these aren't exactly right, but you get the gist.  Then here are the two tranches assuming I had closed the first two in August and November:

8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $39.33 $1.25 2.9% -5.7%
 AMCX  $60.97 $49.58 $0.00 -18.7% -5.7%
 CJREF  $3.08 $3.73 $0.12 25.1% -5.7%
 GME  $15.50 $3.21 $1.14 -71.9% -5.7%
 SGH  $31.12 $27.77 $0.00 -10.8% -5.7%
 Totals  -14.7% -5.7%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $40.14 $1.00 -4.7% 15.1%
 DXC  $62.00 $37.59 $0.38 -38.8% 15.1%
 MU  $38.49 $53.78 $8.25 61.2% 15.1%
 SGH  $29.67 $37.94 $0.00 27.9% 15.1%
 WDC  $44.92 $63.47 $2.00 45.7% 15.1%
 Totals  18.3% 15.1%


Pretty much same story,one small win and a ten point loss.

MFI Formula

Same steps with MFI Formula tranches.First a reminder of how the two most recently closed tranches before I stopped blogging:

1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $192.47 $5.28 11.7% -7.2%
 GME  $18.06 $12.56 $1.52 -22.0% -7.2%
 GILD  $71.64 $62.01 $2.28 -10.3% -7.2%
 HRB  $26.34 $25.05 $0.99 -1.1% -7.2%
 OMC  $72.81 $72.74 $1.80 2.4% -7.2%
 Totals  -3.9% -7.2%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $189.90 $5.28 17.3% 10.6%
 VIAB  $29.20 $28.07 $0.80 -1.1% 10.6%
 GILD  $72.71 $65.01 $2.34 -7.4% 10.6%
 TUP  $47.32 $25.58 $2.31 -41.1% 10.6%
 EGOV  $13.29 $17.09 $0.32 31.0% 10.6%
 Totals  -0.3% 10.6%


Then here are the 4 open tranches at that time assuming I held all through 2019:


7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $4.09 $0.31 12.8% 18.2%
 GILD  $70.80 $64.98 $1.77 -5.7% 18.2%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.10 $0.66 4.2% 18.2%
 KLAC  $102.03 $178.17 $3.00 77.6% 18.2%
 TUP  $40.09 $8.58 $2.17 -73.2% 18.2%
 Totals  3.1% 18.2%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $4.09 $0.12 25.3% 10.3%
 GILD  $78.13 $64.98 $1.20 -15.3% 10.3%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.10 $0.45 3.3% 10.3%
 PETS  $31.56 $23.52 $1.35 -21.2% 10.3%
 VIAB  $32.21 $24.22 $0.40 -23.6% 10.3%
 Totals  -6.3% 10.3%
1/2/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 EGOV  $12.54 $22.35 $0.08 78.9% 30.3%
 GILD  $62.01 $64.98 $0.63 5.8% 30.3%
 IPG  $20.50 $23.10 $0.24 13.8% 30.3%
 KLAC  $90.04 $178.17 $1.50 99.5% 30.3%
 OMC  $72.74 $81.02 $0.65 12.3% 30.3%
 Totals  42.1% 30.3%
4/1/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VIAB  $28.90 $24.22 $0.20 -15.5% 11.9%
 DLX  $44.50 $49.92 $0.60 13.5% 11.9%
 HRB  $24.31 $23.48 $0.00 -3.4% 11.9%
 GILD  $66.00 $64.98 $0.00 -1.5% 11.9%
 KLAC  $122.10 $178.17 $0.75 46.5% 11.9%
 Totals  7.9% 11.9%


Again, I'm lazy with dividends (both for Russell 3000 and my stocks), but directionally it makes little difference.  Three of the four tranches were losers.  Overall lost by an average of 6 points.

Then here are tranches if I had closed them on schedule (again only show first two as newest two would still be open):

7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $4.70 $0.31 28.5% 7.7%
 GILD  $70.80 $68.84 $1.77 -0.3% 7.7%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.20 $0.66 4.6% 7.7%
 KLAC  $102.03 $119.63 $3.00 20.2% 7.7%
 TUP  $40.09 $18.42 $2.17 -48.6% 7.7%
 Totals  0.9% 7.7%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $3.97 $0.12 21.7% -2.1%
 GILD  $78.13 $61.62 $1.20 -19.6% -2.1%
 IPG  $22.80 $20.52 $0.45 -8.0% -2.1%
 PETS  $31.56 $18.09 $1.35 -38.4% -2.1%
 VIAB  $32.21 $23.01 $0.40 -27.3% -2.1%
 Totals  -14.3% -2.1%

Yeah, I know.  Doesn't change much.  Too many stinkers (stocks down by 30% or more... what MFI Formula was trying to weed out).

Baker's Dirty Dozen

To continue my tidy-up, I did post last December a listing of 13 stocks that (many MFI) that I felt were super cheap.  Here is how they did for a year (I closed them December 17th as I was going on vacation):

 Stock   Start   Current   Dividend   Gain/Loss 
 AMAT          30.31          61.61               0.84 106.0%
 AMCX          52.23          38.89                    -   -25.5%
 DLX          37.11          50.09               1.20 38.2%
 DXC          50.48          37.50               0.76 -24.2%
 ECA            5.38             4.43               0.08 -16.2%
 GLNG          21.72          13.54               0.30 -36.3%
 KLAC          85.67        176.07               3.05 109.1%
 LRCX       127.16        295.58               2.20 134.2%
 MU          30.32          55.27                    -   82.3%
 SGH          28.75          35.88                    -   24.8%
 T          28.31          38.99               2.04 44.9%
 TGP          11.82          15.79               0.66 39.2%
 WDC          35.90          59.87               2.00 72.3%
 Total  42.2%
So they were great, up by 42% on average.  When I closed it,  I did start a new Baker's Dirty Dozen.  It is off to a good start:


 Ticker  12/17/2019  Current   YTD Change   Dividend 
 MO           50.88             49.72 -0.6%           0.84
 AXS           60.52             59.44 -1.1%           0.44
 MPLX           25.48             25.41 -0.3%                -  
 CPLP           12.03             13.46 11.9%                -  
 MAC           25.91             26.92 3.9%                -  
 CHL           39.89             42.28 6.0%                -  
 CSCO           46.40             47.83 3.1%                -  
 OXY           38.34             40.82 6.5%                -  
 HT           14.19             14.63 3.1%                -  
 HI           33.25             33.51 0.8%                -  
 NTR           48.53             47.82 -0.5%           0.45
 AROC              9.38               9.94 5.9%                -  
 ECA              4.45               4.69 5.4%                -  
3.4%

12/31/19 MFI Tracking Portfolio

My readers may recall I also have had MFI tracking portfolios (50 stocks over $$100m) that I have been tracking since 2006.  Here is how the December 31st 2019 portfolio fared:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap 
VEC              21.58           51.26 137.5%            243
LRCX            133.31         292.40 119.3%       21,848
KLAC              87.34         178.17 104.0%       13,699
AMAT              32.15           61.04 89.9%       31,594
EGOV              12.27           22.35 82.2%            818
WDC              35.83           63.47 77.1%       10,684
CELG              64.09         110.02 71.7%       44,793
AEIS              42.93           71.20 65.9%         1,662
STX              36.70           59.50 62.1%       11,042
CECO              11.42           18.39 61.0%            797
AKG                0.64             0.95 48.4%            144
SP              29.54           42.43 43.6%            662
DLX              37.45           49.92 33.3%         1,780
STRL              10.89           14.08 29.3%            295
CJREF                3.32             4.09 23.0%            742
IPG              19.75           23.10 17.0%         7,929
IDT                6.19             7.21 16.5%            147
OMC              70.84           81.02 14.4%       16,464
MSB              20.95           23.54 12.3%            311
ALSN              43.34           48.32 11.5%         5,692
AGX              36.96           40.14 8.6%            589
GILD              60.23           64.98 7.9%       81,065
PETS              22.08           23.52 6.5%            481
HSII              30.62           32.50 6.1%            591
EAF              11.13           11.62 4.4%         3,324
HPQ              19.78           20.55 3.9%       31,836
UIS              11.63           11.86 2.0%            593
ESIO              29.96           30.00 0.1%         1,040
HRB              24.34           23.48 -3.5%         5,214
VIAB              25.15           24.22 -3.7%       10,360
MCFT              18.70           15.75 -15.8%            350
IDCC              64.95           54.49 -16.1%         2,302
IMMR                8.96             7.43 -17.1%            276
TVTY              24.81           20.35 -18.0%            994
INVA              17.45           14.16 -18.9%         1,979
UTHR            108.90           88.08 -19.1%         5,122
MSGN              23.56           17.40 -26.1%         1,763
DXC              52.14           37.59 -27.9%       14,956
HEAR              14.27             9.45 -33.8%            203
NKTR              32.87           21.59 -34.3%         5,688
SIGA                7.90             4.77 -39.6%            635
GME              12.21             6.08 -50.2%         1,290
LTRPA              15.89             7.35 -53.7%         1,193
LGORF                2.07             0.77 -62.8%         1,084
BPT              19.01             6.88 -63.8%            463
NHTC              17.15             5.38 -68.6%            210
TUP              30.31             8.58 -71.7%         1,534
FTSI                7.11             1.04 -85.4%            777
ACOR              15.58             2.04 -86.9%            735
TUSK              17.73             2.20 -87.6%            805


I always preached how you have to minimize the number of stinkers (stocks dropping 30% or more).  Historically it is about 14% of all MFI stocks.  Here it is a putrid 24%... in a year where the Russell 3000 was up over 30%!  So MFI tracking was trounced 5% to 31%.

The three other portfolios I started for tracking in 2019 are also trailing by 15 points plus.  It is like MFI is working in reverse, which is why I commented this feels like 1999-2000 when money was flowing away from old economy stocks into sexy dot coms.

Large Caps

I also did some modest tracking of large cap (over $3b) MFI stocks in 2019.  Pretty similar story.

TickerShares Basis Current PricePct Change
AAPL11.93 167.67 293.65 75.1%
ALSN41.17 48.58 48.32 -0.5%
AMAT50.57 39.55 61.04 54.3%
AMCX32.60 61.35 39.50 -35.6%
AMGN10.71 186.69 241.07 29.1%
AYI16.48 121.34 138.00 13.7%
BBY34.31 58.30 87.80 50.6%
CAH41.15 48.60 50.58 4.1%
CBS40.51 49.37 41.97-15.0%
CC55.43 36.08 18.09 -49.9%
CDK40.97 48.82 54.68 12.0%
CPRI47.03 42.53 38.15 -10.3%
CVS30.92 64.68 74.29 14.9%
DNB13.82 144.77 144.95 0.1%
DXC30.78 64.98 37.59 -42.2%
EAF149.59 13.37 11.62 -13.1%
EME30.60 65.35 86.30 32.1%
FFIV12.42 161.09 139.65 -13.3%
GILD28.65 69.81 64.98 -6.9%
GNTX95.10 21.03 28.98 37.8%
HPQ90.87 22.01 20.55 -6.6%
HRB84.85 23.57 23.48 -0.4%
IPG88.26 22.66 23.10 1.9%
JAZZ15.86 126.11 149.28 18.4%
JEC30.85 64.84 85.84 32.4%
KLAC18.69 107.03 178.17 66.5%
LB72.23 27.69 18.12 -34.6%
LEA12.98 154.04 137.20 -10.9%
LPX81.53 24.53 29.67 21.0%
LRCX11.66 171.46 292.40 70.5%
MAN25.53 78.33 97.10 24.0%
MAS60.28 33.18 47.99 44.6%
MCK16.03 124.79 138.32 10.8%
MD55.36 36.13 27.79 -23.1%
MKSI24.03 83.23 110.01 32.2%
MO40.50 49.38 49.91 1.1%
MU51.24 39.03 53.78 37.8%
NKTR47.03 42.53 21.59 -49.2%
OMC25.66 77.94 81.02 4.0%
PM26.34 75.92 85.09 12.1%
RTN11.86 168.67 219.74 30.3%
STLD54.54 36.67 34.04 -7.2%
STX44.55 44.89 59.50 32.5%
SWKS27.21 73.49 120.88 64.5%
TER54.69 36.57 68.19 86.5%
TNET42.77 46.76 56.61 21.1%
UTHR17.39 115.03 88.08 -23.4%
VIAB68.49 29.20 24.22 -17.1%
WDC43.99 45.46 63.47 39.6%
XRX70.37 28.42 36.87 29.7%


So on average up 11%, but benchmark up over 20%.  Let's look at one more.

March 1st:

TickerShares Basis Current PriceGain/LossPct G/L
AAPL11.43 174.97 293.65 1,357 67.8%
ABC24.10 82.98 85.02 49 2.5%
ALSN40.87 48.94 48.32 (25)-1.3%
AMAT51.87 38.56 61.04 1,166 58.3%
AMGN10.46 191.16 241.07 522 26.1%
AYI15.12 132.28 138.00 86 4.3%
BBY29.49 67.81 87.80 590 29.5%
BIIB5.99 334.10 296.73 (224)-11.2%
CBS39.38 50.79 41.97 (347)-17.4%
CDK34.03 58.78 54.68 (140)-7.0%
CELG23.27 85.96 108.24 518 25.9%
CLF183.65 10.89 8.40 (457)-22.9%
CPRI42.73 46.81 38.15 (370)-18.5%
CTSH27.73 72.13 62.02 (280)-14.0%
DXC29.73 67.27 37.59 (882)-44.1%
EAF140.55 14.23 11.62 (367)-18.3%
EME27.58 72.51 86.30 380 19.0%
FFIV12.01 166.53 139.65 (323)-16.1%
GILD30.30 66.01 64.98 (31)-1.6%
GNTX97.56 20.50 28.98 827 41.4%
HPQ102.04 19.60 20.55 97 4.8%
HRB82.85 24.14 23.48 (55)-2.7%
IPG86.47 23.13 23.10 (3)-0.1%
JAZZ14.39 138.98 149.28 148 7.4%
KHC61.73 32.40 32.13 (17)-0.8%
KLAC17.27 115.78 178.17 1,078 53.9%
LEA13.10 152.68 137.20 (203)-10.1%
LPX78.52 25.47 29.67 330 16.5%
LRCX11.32 176.75 292.40 1,309 65.4%
MAN23.67 84.51 97.10 298 14.9%
MAS50.00 40.00 47.99 400 20.0%
MCK16.06 124.53 138.32 221 11.1%
MKSI23.85 83.85 110.01 624 31.2%
MO37.91 52.75 49.91 (108)-5.4%
MU48.10 41.58 53.78 587 29.3%
NCR70.03 28.56 35.16 462 23.1%
NKTR52.45 38.13 21.59 (868)-43.4%
NTAP30.20 66.22 62.25 (120)-6.0%
NUS33.75 59.26 40.98 (617)-30.8%
OMC26.07 76.72 81.02 112 5.6%
RHI29.33 68.20 63.15 (148)-7.4%
RTN10.74 186.19 219.74 360 18.0%
STX43.15 46.35 59.50 567 28.4%
SWKS24.40 81.98 120.88 949 47.5%
TGNA133.78 14.95 16.69 233 11.6%
TPR56.56 35.36 26.97 (475)-23.7%
UTHR15.77 126.84 88.08 (611)-30.6%
VIAB67.91 29.45 24.22 (355)-17.8%
WDC38.71 51.66 63.47 457 22.9%
XRX63.92 31.29 36.87 357 17.8%
  


So on average +7%.   While the Russell 3000 was up 16%.  I know, frustrating.  I think irregardless of how you slice it 2019 was poor for MFI(GARIX, a MFI mutual fund was up about 12%, again vs an index up 30%).

MFI Diary Motley Fool

I also started in 2019 a CAPS portfolio called MFI Diary on Motley Fool that randomly picks about 7 stocks once a quarter.  You can see the results here, not so hot:




Going Forward

I will set up two tracking portfolios for 2020 and perhaps follow up a few times here.  Have a great year everyone!




4 comments:

jb said...

Same results for me following MFI - trailing the indexes last year. My real money portfolio was up 'only' 23.4%. This trailed both the Russell indexes that I track against. I'm not adding more money, but I haven't given up on the strategy yet due to good long-term results. But the last 4 or 5 years have made it very tough to stick with MFI.

I've been tracking a couple of portfolios based on your screening results you have posted in the past. The all-cap portfolio fared very poorly, up a dismal 4.3%. The portfolio based on the large-cap stocks did well, up 30.6%.

Best wishes to you for 2020 and beyond.

regards,
j

gfhjk said...

Do you screen yourself, or you use magicformula's website for picking?

jb said...

I've always used the magicformula website for screening stock.
j

gfhjk said...

Awesome. Many people don't understand the difference. Any update in 2020 or 2021 for MFI Formula? Also couldn't find info on mfi formula criteria. Thanks, my friend