Sunday, July 08, 2018

New MFI Formula Tranche, July 2nd 2018

New MFI Formula Tranche, July 2nd 2018

I started a new MFI Formula tranche last Monday.  Generally, I have always started my MFI Formula tranches right at the start of a new quarter.  The one exception to this was last year, when I was traveling and didn't start the tranche until July 10th.

So I decided to go back to original date, which means I will have one week where I had two tranches running at the same time.  I will close the July 10th tranche at the close of day tomorrow and sell winning stocks Wednesday.  I have already sold RGR and I will sell GME tomorrow.  Here is the tranche with one day left:


7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $42.71 $1.24 41.9% 16.3%
 GME  $20.95 $15.15 $1.52 -20.4% 16.3%
 HPQ  $17.60 $23.01 $0.53 33.8% 16.3%
 RGR  $60.70 $56.70 $0.99 -5.0% 16.3%
 SYNT  $16.21 $35.91 $0.00 121.5% 16.3%
 Totals  34.4% 16.3%


I always use this closing to review every closed tranche.  Here are all of the closed tranches in detail:


10/1/2014 Stocks  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BAH  $23.52 $26.21 $0.50 13.5% -0.6%
 BKE  $45.55 $36.97 $3.68 -10.8% -0.6%
 CA  $27.87 $27.30 $1.00 1.5% -0.6%
 GME  $41.70 $41.21 $1.41 2.2% -0.6%
 NUS  $44.56 $41.28 $1.40 -4.2% -0.6%
 Totals  0.5% -0.6%
 12/31/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CA  $30.83 $29.26 $1.00 -1.8% -0.3%
 CSCO  $28.36 $27.70 $0.82 0.6% -0.3%
 RGR  $34.81 $60.08 $1.10 75.7% -0.3%
 GME  $34.21 $28.71 $1.44 -11.9% -0.3%
 IQNT  $19.87 $17.78 $0.60 -7.5% -0.3%
 Totals  11.0% -0.3%
3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $26.33 $0.80 -15.2% -1.1%
 GME  $37.69 $32.12 $1.45 -10.9% -1.1%
 KING  $15.85 $18.00 $0.00 13.6% -1.1%
 NSU  $3.43 $3.24 $0.16 -0.8% -1.1%
 PPC  $22.65 $25.40 $0.00 12.1% -1.1%
 Totals  -0.2% -1.1%
7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $25.51 $1.96 -40.9% -0.3%
 CA  $29.34 $31.53 $1.01 10.9% -0.3%
 MSFT  $44.42 $49.29 $1.39 14.1% -0.3%
 QCOM  $62.95 $53.45 $1.97 -12.0% -0.3%
 VIAB  $64.75 $40.81 $1.60 -34.5% -0.3%
 Totals  -12.5% -0.3%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $24.03 $1.98 -29.4% 13.6%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.14 $0.60 -23.8% 13.6%
 QCOM  $53.45 $68.50 $2.02 31.9% 13.6%
 CSCO  $26.37 $31.72 $0.94 23.9% 13.6%
 CA  $27.30 $33.08 $1.01 24.9% 13.6%
 Totals  5.5% 13.6%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $42.67 $1.57 46.0% 12.1%
 GME  $28.34 $25.45 $1.48 -5.0% 12.1%
 ILG  $15.89 $18.17 $0.48 17.4% 12.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $19.14 $2.75 -1.5% 12.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $35.40 $1.20 -10.6% 12.1%
 Totals  9.3% 12.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $37.55 $0.44 -25.9% 18.0%
 HPQ  $12.10 $17.88 $0.51 51.9% 18.0%
 TIME  $15.24 $19.35 $0.76 31.9% 18.0%
 ILG  $13.85 $20.96 $0.51 55.0% 18.0%
 XPER  $30.79 $33.95 $0.80 12.9% 18.0%
 Totals  25.2% 18.0%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ILG  $16.76 $27.49 $0.54 67.2% 16.8%
 VIAB  $44.00 $33.57 $0.80 -21.9% 16.8%
 CPLA  $53.22 $85.60 $1.62 63.9% 16.8%
 HRB  $23.62 $30.91 $0.90 34.7% 16.8%
 PBI  $17.69 $15.10 $0.75 -10.4% 16.8%
 Totals  26.7% 16.8%
10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $70.15 $1.64 23.5% 18.8%
 LDOS  $43.01 $59.22 $1.28 40.7% 18.8%
 GME  $27.70 $20.66 $1.51 -20.0% 18.8%
 PBI  $18.15 $14.01 $0.75 -18.7% 18.8%
 CSCO  $31.72 $33.63 $1.10 9.5% 18.8%
 Totals  7.0% 18.8%
12/30/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GILD  $71.69 $71.64 $2.08 2.8% 20.7%
 HPQ  $15.00 $21.01 $0.53 43.6% 20.7%
 TGNA  $21.33 $23.69 $0.35 12.7% 20.7%
 CA  $31.99 $33.28 $1.02 7.2% 20.7%
 SYNT  $19.79 $22.99 $0.00 16.2% 20.7%
 Totals  16.5% 20.7%
4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $22.00 $2.75 34.1% 11.0%
 CSCO  $33.76 $41.01 $1.16 24.9% 11.0%
 GILD  $67.50 $73.14 $2.13 11.5% 11.0%
 OMC  $85.53 $71.27 $2.25 -14.0% 11.0%
 SYNT  $16.76 $25.16 $0.00 50.1% 11.0%
 Totals  21.3% 11.0%

So you can look the 11 closed tranches and see why it has been such a horse race with the Russell 3000 benchmark.  I have won 6 and lost 5 (though that will go to 7/5 with July's closing).  The SYNT (if it holds tomorrow) will be my first two bagger at +121%.

The New Tranche

As my readers know, my formula approach is just that - a formula.  So here is a step by step of how I came up with new tranche (done last weekend).

Step one - take top 50 screen 130m+

Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
ACOR                   1,339         29.65                     -   0.00%
AEIS                   2,297         58.21                     -   0.00%
ALSN                   5,566         39.80                0.60 1.51%
MO              107,550         56.22                2.70 4.81%
AMCX                   3,723         62.01                     -   0.00%
ABC                 18,738         84.82                1.50 1.77%
AMAT                 46,562         45.59                0.50 1.10%
AGX                       638         40.15                1.24 3.10%
BIIB                 61,096      292.00                     -   0.00%
HRB                   4,764         22.99                0.98 4.25%
BPT                       640         29.55                4.01 13.56%
CASA                   1,336         16.48                     -   0.00%
CJREF                       780           3.75                0.90 23.87%
DLX                   3,168         66.02                1.20 1.82%
DNB                   4,538      123.41                2.06 1.67%
ESIO                       542         15.69                     -   0.00%
EVC                       449           4.90                0.20 4.06%
ESRX                 43,392         77.31                     -   0.00%
FTSI                   1,556         13.59                     -   0.00%
GILD                 92,588         70.74                2.18 3.08%
HPQ                 36,542         22.58                0.55 2.45%
IMMR                       469         15.22                     -   0.00%
INVA                   1,575         13.95                     -   0.00%
IDCC                   2,811         81.25                1.35 1.66%
IPG                   9,037         22.71                0.77 3.41%
KLAC                 15,982      102.15                2.52 2.47%
LRCX                 30,089      170.89                2.56 1.50%
LEE                       163           2.92                     -   0.00%
MCFT                       541         29.03                     -   0.00%
MSB                       322         24.38                2.43 9.97%
MIK                   3,490         19.17                     -   0.00%
MPAA                       353         18.51                     -   0.00%
MSGN                   1,803         23.65                     -   0.00%
NHTC                       285         25.27                0.50 1.99%
NLS                       474         15.60                     -   0.00%
EGOV                   1,034         15.60                0.32 2.05%
OMC                 17,313         75.15                2.34 3.12%
PTN                       189           0.98                     -   0.00%
SRNE                       597           7.10                     -   0.00%
SP                       831         37.15                     -   0.00%
TVTY                   1,403         35.30                     -   0.00%
TRNC                       610         17.40                     -   0.00%
TUP                   2,108         39.98                2.70 6.75%
UIS                       657         13.00                     -   0.00%
UTHR                   5,178      112.32                     -   0.00%
EGY                       161           2.61                     -   0.00%
VIAB                 12,142         29.68                0.80 2.68%
HCC                   1,469         26.15                0.20 0.75%
WDC                 23,146         76.77                2.01 2.62%
XOMA                       174         21.18                     -   0.00%
Step 2 - filter out the smallest (by market cap) 17 stocks (that removes everything under 645m).

Step 3 - filter so just using stocks with a 2.4% yield (or greater).  Here are remaining stocks after those two filters:

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 MO            107,550         56.79              2.72 4.79%
2 HRB                 4,764         22.78              0.97 4.26%
3 CJREF                    780           3.75              0.90 23.87%
4 GILD              92,588         70.84              2.18 3.08%
5 HPQ              36,542         22.69              0.55 2.42%
6 IPG                 9,037         23.44              0.78 3.33%
7 KLAC              15,982      102.53              2.52 2.46%
8 OMC              17,313         76.27              2.35 3.08%
9 TUP                 2,108         41.24              2.72 6.60%
10 VIAB              12,142         30.16              0.80 2.65%
11 WDC              23,146         77.41              2.00 2.58%

Step 4 - I can, at my discretion, throw out one stock.  I did not throw anything out.

Step 5 - run a random number generator for 5 stocks from these 11 names.  Here is what I got:


Random # Stock
3 CJREF
4 GILD
6 IPG
7 KLAC
9 TUP

CJREF and IPG are new to me.  GILD, KLAC and TUP are in other tranches, that is pretty normal.  CJREF had just reduced their dividend and switched from monthly dividends to quarterly, so they had really sold off - I am hopeful that is good timing for me.  Here is table showing the prices I got the five stocks at and how I fared versus benchmark in first week:


7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $3.66 $0.00 -6.2% 2.0%
 GILD  $70.80 $75.21 $0.00 6.2% 2.0%
 IPG  $22.80 $22.86 $0.00 0.3% 2.0%
 KLAC  $102.03 $104.87 $0.00 2.8% 2.0%
 TUP  $40.09 $41.90 $0.00 4.5% 2.0%
 Totals  1.5% 2.0%

IPG was also in the news last week, they bought a big chunk of ACXM.  That would have been the stock to have bought on Monday (up from $30 last Friday to over $39 this Friday).

Have a great week everyone, super weather here in New England.

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