Saturday, July 14, 2018

July 14th 2018 Top 200 List and 8/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

July 14th 2018 Top 200 List and 8/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

Mid July is here.  I'm off on a vacation soon, so thought I'd crank out a quick top 200 list to start thinking about my next MFI Select tranche.

This is my version of the official magic formula screener from Joel Greenblatt's book.  I believe I come very close to matching the actual calculations.  When I first developed this, the official screen gave more earnings yield and ROIC data - so that is a large reason for confidence.

The formula details can be found in my blog post "The Calculation" if you want to see more.  I had a lot of help developing it from people on the Yahoo MFI board back in the day.  Also Randy Harmelink, of SMF fame, helped me automate workbook once the formulae were all working well.

I do give more info than official site.  I use Fidelity for data source and they use Compustat, so that matches what official website uses.  I do provide earnings yield and ROIC.  I also typically have more names as I do not throw out as many non-US firms and I keep some insurers and investment firms.

Before I go further, here is my MFI Select tranche that is entering final month:


8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $573.90 $3.81 -2.3% 16.3%
 ICHR  $19.80 $20.61 $0.00 4.1% 16.3%
 MD  $43.00 $44.34 $0.00 3.1% 16.3%
 SIMO  $43.05 $52.93 $0.90 25.0% 16.3%
 RHI  $44.15 $67.50 $1.04 55.2% 16.3%
 Totals  17.0% 16.3%

It is a neck and neck to the wire tranche with benchmark.  It does show that sometimes the most boring company (RHI) can be the best investment.  Disclaimer, GHC is super boring as well.  I suspect whether this tranche wins or loses will be a function of semiconductors.  ICHR and SIMO can move quickly in either direction.

For the replacement tranche, I do think we're in a stretch (tightening spreads, trade war rumbles etc) where you probably want to be more defensive.  So that'll be a key theme of my picks.  But thinking out loud, I think a lot of Chinese companies have been oversold and some of my best gains ever (ATHM, YY and GA) were from China.

Here is top 200 List:


Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Dividend Yield
OPHT 1            2.70               98 5202% 30011% 0.00%
FNJN 2            4.47            135 55% 20682% 0.00%
NHTC 3         24.56            277 25% 3857% 2.04%
PTN 4            1.02            201 15% 13988% 0.00%
AGX 5         40.50            634 25% 454% 3.09%
XOMA 6         23.11            192 14% 12121% 0.00%
EVC 7            4.90            443 56% 286% 4.08%
IDCC 8         84.75         3,018 14% 2960% 1.65%
BPT 9         30.70            657 13% 41038% 13.48%
QTRH 10            1.05            125 55% 231% 3.75%
HRB 11         23.93         5,038 14% 324% 4.05%
ICON 12            0.62               37 18% 217% 0.00%
MSB 13         25.45            334 11% 18164% #VALUE!
IMMR 14         15.73            481 11% 1349% 0.00%
UTHR 15       124.74         5,476 24% 170% 0.00%
CJREF 16            3.50            726 16% 190% #VALUE!
GILD 17         77.38    102,142 12% 376% 2.82%
UIS 18         14.40         1,050 18% 160% 0.00%
SJT 19            5.93            276 10% 736% 12.22%
SQBG 20            1.98            125 12% 184% 0.00%
DLX 21         66.32         3,184 10% 482% 1.81%
MSGN 22         23.30         1,771 11% 251% 0.00%
YRD 23         20.68         1,280 37% 110% 1.35%
MPAA 24         19.35            376 12% 183% 0.00%
CERC 25            4.13            129 9% 6466% 0.00%
LEXEA 26         47.10         2,685 14% 118% 0.00%
INVA 27         14.91         1,693 10% 385% 0.00%
ESRX 28         81.48       46,207 9% 1014% 0.00%
FTSI 29         12.74         1,355 21% 93% 0.00%
VIAB 30         30.00       12,087 13% 122% 2.67%
DHX 31            2.15            105 13% 120% 0.00%
AEIS 32         59.14         2,365 11% 153% 0.00%
ESIO 33         17.25            618 18% 92% 0.00%
WU 34         20.36         9,439 9% 515% 3.59%
EGY 35            3.27            192 13% 110% 0.00%
VIA 36         35.05       14,122 12% 122% 2.28%
AVDL 37            7.11            274 9% 773% 0.00%
BPI 38            6.46            178 15% 89% 0.00%
TUP 39         42.13         2,161 12% 106% 6.46%
GTS 40         38.76            907 11% 132% 0.00%
NLS 41         14.65            448 11% 129% 0.00%
HPQ 42         23.71       39,027 9% 204% 2.32%
ACOR 43         29.80         1,387 9% 317% 0.00%
SRNE 44            7.10            603 9% 276% 0.00%
EGOV 45         16.35         1,084 8% 419% 1.96%
CASA 46         15.62         1,462 9% 180% 0.00%
PFMT 47            2.19            117 18% 75% 0.00%
WDC 48         79.52       24,492 12% 91% 2.52%
KLAC 49       104.86       16,484 9% 190% 2.40%
TRNC 50         17.30            602 12% 91% 0.00%
OMC 51         77.51       17,944 9% 284% 3.03%
AMAT 52         46.13       47,975 10% 141% 1.08%
TGS 53         14.05         2,233 15% 78% 1.46%
LRCX 54       171.79       30,884 10% 119% 1.48%
LEE 55            3.20            179 13% 81% 0.00%
HCC 56         25.57         1,359 34% 64% 0.78%
PERI 57            1.10               85 14% 77% 0.00%
QIWI 58         16.23            993 8% 414% 1.29%
FUJHY 59         13.85       21,238 27% 63% 4.67%
ALSN 60         41.82         5,855 9% 139% 1.43%
HUM 61       317.12       44,026 9% 216% 0.57%
AMCX 62         63.38         3,912 12% 86% 0.00%
IPG 63         23.30         8,933 9% 151% 3.35%
SP 64         37.75            852 8% 301% 0.00%
DNB 65       127.45         4,754 8% 1261% 1.61%
COH 66            0.43            143 69% 63% 0.00%
THO 67         99.97         5,284 13% 73% 1.48%
NVMI 68         27.19            781 9% 120% 0.00%
MO 69         58.50    111,092 8% 516% 4.65%
GPP 70         16.70            531 9% 120% 11.11%
AET 71       191.89       63,247 8% 932% 1.04%
MIK 72         19.77         3,611 11% 79% 0.00%
MCFT 73         28.20            528 8% 253% 0.00%
TGNA 74         11.95         2,593 10% 96% 2.34%
DFIN 75         19.05            646 11% 84% 0.00%
BKE 76         23.20         1,126 15% 61% 4.31%
TVTY 77         36.35         1,584 7% 1105% 0.00%
CVS 78         68.63       69,934 11% 77% 2.91%
YUM 79         79.14       26,908 8% 176% 1.67%
ASYS 80            5.80               88 56% 53% 0.00%
ZAGG 81         17.10            491 11% 78% 0.00%
VEC 82         31.31            355 10% 87% 0.00%
GME 83         15.28         1,559 22% 54% 9.95%
CMCM 84            9.61         1,377 7% 469% 0.00%
PBH 85         38.68         2,055 8% 159% 0.00%
UEPS 86            9.39            525 16% 53% 0.00%
BIIB 87       348.40       73,756 8% 130% 0.00%
KLIC 88         28.48         2,034 12% 61% 0.42%
BBY 89         75.88       21,876 9% 82% 2.08%
CRUS 90         40.27         2,600 11% 64% 0.00%
AVP 91            1.45            639 16% 52% 0.00%
JILL 92            8.51            369 13% 56% 0.00%
ANTM 93       250.51       65,834 7% 238% 1.16%
MCK 94       136.59       28,138 8% 117% 1.00%
PBI 95            8.96         1,686 10% 78% 8.37%
PBT 96            9.13            426 7% 14716% 6.94%
WGO 97         41.55         1,319 10% 68% 0.96%
MU 98         56.35       69,592 19% 48% 0.00%
UCTT 99         16.10            604 20% 48% 0.00%
BLBD 100         22.95            577 8% 152% 0.00%
LEA 101       187.94       12,698 13% 54% 1.28%
AMGN 102       195.91    139,292 7% 205% 2.52%
CBS 103         59.01       22,778 9% 83% 0.00%
CRTO 104         34.00         2,294 8% 101% 0.00%
MAN 105         85.95         5,750 14% 51% 2.26%
SBH 106         16.37         2,047 13% 53% 0.00%
CAH 107         50.80       16,002 9% 74% 3.67%
LB 108         31.71         8,929 12% 53% 7.57%
NCR 109         31.40         3,887 9% 72% 0.00%
MD 110         44.34         4,146 8% 121% 0.00%
EME 111         77.35         4,569 9% 87% 0.41%
EBF 112         19.95            506 11% 56% 4.14%
ATLKY 113         28.09       34,174 9% 81% 6.08%
LPX 114         27.62         4,052 17% 45% 0.94%
TARO 115       115.73         4,598 10% 65% 0.00%
ITRN 116         30.40            637 9% 72% 3.16%
CSCO 117         41.78    202,382 7% 410% 2.97%
VVV 118         21.86         4,372 9% 73% 1.25%
SHI 119         61.15         6,610 19% 43% 7.79%
CKHUY 120         10.67       41,161 14% 46% 2.47%
SNE 121         53.31       67,444 8% 90% 0.21%
TSQ 122            6.79            125 11% 53% 2.21%
ORCL 123         48.63    201,766 7% 240% 1.56%
ABC 124         87.91       19,543 8% 101% 1.71%
AYI 125       134.46         5,446 9% 78% 0.39%
MKSI 126         97.15         5,371 9% 69% 0.76%
MTOR 127         21.77         1,985 12% 50% 0.00%
GHC 128       573.90         3,141 8% 90% 0.91%
FL 129         52.67         6,273 14% 45% 2.42%
KBAL 130         16.11            605 9% 62% 1.74%
CSVI 131         49.99            697 8% 105% 2.48%
ODP 132            2.62         1,475 15% 43% 3.82%
NOMD 133         18.53         3,252 8% 102% 0.00%
NTRI 134         38.95         1,174 7% 239% 2.18%
CELG 135         85.69       65,836 7% 413% 0.00%
OMAB 136         45.34         2,230 8% 119% 3.60%
GNTX 137         23.23         6,447 9% 67% 1.81%
CALL 138            8.45            137 7% 324% 0.00%
STRL 139         13.89            376 11% 49% 0.00%
SDXAY 140         21.24       15,990 7% 188% 3.21%
JNPR 141         27.86       10,046 8% 79% 2.01%
ICHR 142         20.61            551 10% 53% 0.00%
PETS 143         38.99            796 7% 137% 2.31%
PPC 144         18.73         4,664 17% 39% 0.00%
TER 145         39.58         8,054 8% 93% 0.81%
SWKS 146         99.60       18,356 8% 87% 1.29%
ANIK 147         35.32            518 11% 47% 0.00%
SYNT 148         38.00         3,168 7% 119% 0.00%
PNR 149         43.52         7,899 9% 63% 3.19%
MMS 150         64.49         4,274 8% 94% 0.28%
PM 151         82.68    128,485 7% 125% 5.26%
VGR 152         19.05         2,533 7% 265% 8.30%
OSB 153         40.88         3,557 16% 37% 4.36%
BOJA 154         14.70            560 7% 105% 0.00%
BGSF 155         23.25            211 8% 88% 4.52%
YY 156         98.43         6,370 7% 183% 0.00%
XCRA 157         14.13            788 11% 45% 0.00%
COHR 158       163.24         4,083 10% 47% 0.00%
GPS 159         29.40       11,554 12% 39% 0.00%
HCKT 160         16.38            521 7% 113% 1.95%
KRO 161         22.50         2,608 15% 36% 2.84%
XRX 162         25.27         6,506 11% 45% 3.96%
CRT 163         14.60               88 8% 78% 8.39%
STX 164         59.02       17,175 7% 84% 0.00%
ABBV 165         96.63    154,221 6% 364% 3.38%
ACCO 166         14.45         1,590 10% 47% 0.83%
NCMI 167            8.42            645 7% 134% 0.00%
NLSN 168         31.08       11,104 7% 141% 4.41%
GIB 169         65.94       19,188 6% 291% 0.00%
SNA 170       165.26         9,546 9% 53% 1.92%
LYB 171       107.38       42,415 12% 36% 3.54%
AAPL 172       191.33    969,755 6% 188% 0.00%
WINA 173       144.70            597 6% 409% 0.33%
LCI 174         13.60            521 14% 33% 0.00%
HI 175         49.25         3,118 7% 106% 1.68%
KORS 176         66.55       10,266 7% 80% 0.00%
USNA 177       108.70         2,638 6% 153% 0.00%
CSGS 178         41.30         1,367 8% 66% 1.97%
WBA 179         65.17       64,864 9% 50% 2.46%
MLHR 180         38.75         2,329 8% 56% 1.86%
CHS 181            8.06         1,010 16% 30% 0.00%
ATTO 182            6.45            477 12% 34% #VALUE!
HLF 183         53.93         8,230 6% 160% 0.00%
KNMCY 184         49.48         6,801 8% 61% 1.23%
GNC 185            3.42            285 13% 33% 0.00%
HOLI 186         21.61         1,325 13% 33% 0.56%
IMBBY 187         37.99       36,166 6% 136% 6.20%
NVO 188         49.88    121,822 7% 131% 2.57%
GENC 189         16.10            237 9% 45% 0.00%
CO 190            8.05         1,149 8% 50% 0.99%
MBUU 191         42.28            873 7% 127% 0.68%
CA 192         44.06       18,241 6% 484% 2.32%
LZB 193         30.10         1,429 10% 37% 1.56%
AMN 194         59.55         2,925 7% 92% 0.00%
PLUS 195         98.65         1,358 8% 63% 0.00%
CC 196         44.88         8,452 11% 34% 0.89%
LFVN 197            9.34            132 7% 113% 0.00%
SAFM 198       102.59         2,309 18% 28% 1.17%
TSN 199         66.30       24,531 10% 38% 1.58%
OSK 200         73.60         5,557 10% 38% 1.26%

People should always do their own due diligence as always possible I make mistakes.  The yields should also always be checked as sometimes they are backwards looking, exclude special dividends etc.

Here is the official top 50 list.  All 50 of the official list are within my top 124.  ABC is often an outlier for some reason.


Ticker Mkt Cap Date My Ranking Price EY ROIC
ACOR 1,391 13-Jul 43        29.80 9% 317%
AEIS 2,338 13-Jul 32        59.14 11% 153%
ALSN 5,749 13-Jul 60        41.82 9% 139%
MO 110,789 13-Jul 69        58.50 8% 516%
AMCX 3,794 13-Jul 62        63.38 12% 86%
ABC 19,318 13-Jul 124        87.91 8% 101%
AMAT 46,501 13-Jul 52        46.13 10% 141%
AGX 631 13-Jul 5        40.50 25% 454%
HRB 5,007 13-Jul 11        23.93 14% 324%
BPT 657 13-Jul 9        30.70 13% 41038%
CASA 1,278 13-Jul 46        15.62 9% 180%
CERC 130 13-Jul 25          4.13 9% 6466%
CJREF 728 13-Jul 16          3.50 16% 190%
DLX 3,173 13-Jul 21        66.32 10% 482%
DNB 4,716 13-Jul 65      127.45 8% 1261%
ESIO 593 13-Jul 33        17.25 18% 92%
EVC 440 13-Jul 7          4.90 56% 286%
ESRX 45,792 13-Jul 28        81.48 9% 1014%
FNJN 124 13-Jul 2          4.47 55% 20682%
FTSI 1,392 13-Jul 29        12.74 21% 93%
GILD 101,136 13-Jul 17        77.38 12% 376%
HPQ 38,185 13-Jul 42        23.71 9% 204%
IMMR 478 13-Jul 14        15.73 11% 1349%
INVA 1,701 13-Jul 27        14.91 10% 385%
IDCC 2,945 13-Jul 8        84.75 14% 2960%
KLAC 16,345 13-Jul 49      104.86 9% 190%
LRCX 29,905 13-Jul 54      171.79 10% 119%
LEE 183 13-Jul 55          3.20 13% 81%
MCFT 527 13-Jul 73        28.20 8% 253%
MSB 334 13-Jul 13        25.45 11% 18164%
MPAA 366 13-Jul 24        19.35 12% 183%
MSGN 1,754 13-Jul 22        23.30 11% 251%
NHTC 279 13-Jul 3        24.56 25% 3857%
NLS 442 13-Jul 41        14.65 11% 129%
EGOV 1,088 13-Jul 45        16.35 8% 419%
OMC 17,595 13-Jul 51        77.51 9% 284%
PTN 199 13-Jul 4          1.02 15% 13988%
QTRH 125 13-Jul 10          1.05 55% 231%
SQBG 126 13-Jul 20          1.98 12% 184%
SRNE 646 13-Jul 44          7.10 9% 276%
SP 843 13-Jul 64        37.75 8% 301%
TVTY 1,448 13-Jul 77        36.35 7% 1105%
TRNC 610 13-Jul 50        17.30 12% 91%
TUP 2,154 13-Jul 39        42.13 12% 106%
UIS 734 13-Jul 18        14.40 18% 160%
UTHR 5,709 13-Jul 15      124.74 24% 170%
EGY 192 13-Jul 35          3.27 13% 110%
VIAB 12,078 13-Jul 30        30.00 13% 122%
WDC 23,776 13-Jul 48        79.52 12% 91%
XOMA 193 13-Jul 6        23.11 14% 12121%


So looking at the lists, here are some initial stock ideas

WDC
EGY
KLAC
FTSI
AGX
AMCX
AEIS
CASA
TGS (yes, I might consider a 2nd Argentinian company)
CVS

I guess no Chinese companies look enticing... YRD makes me nervous.



No comments: