Friday, December 18, 2009

Feliz Navidad

Last post until end of December as I go off line tomorrow. Did get some good news today (unexpectedly) with AIRV. They are being bought out, which caused them to pop 20% today (SAC Capital, Blackstone lead $530M deal for Airvana). In the grand scheme of buyouts, the premium wasn't that high. There is already a lawyer prowling to build a class action suit (Law Office of Brodsky & Smith, LLC Announces Investigation of Airvana, Inc.).

I'll certainly hold my shares into the new year to put off capital gain taxes until early 2011. I also think there is a chance for the amount to increase. So two of my stocks (GIGM and AIRV) went through M&A activity near the end of December. I think that bodes well for the MFI portfolio as they are often very good value stocks.

I did buy CF today and I sold CSKI (I know the sale of CSKI was premature, but I get so antsy with them as one day they're $19 and the next day $12.). As mentioned earlier, I'll sell CKSW in a couple weeks as it ironically makes sense for me to sell them before the one year anniversary (I bought them 1/3/09) as loyal readers may recall, I briefly sold my shares in July, so I already have a capital gain. They are down since then (and I don't blame shyster), so I have a loss which I'd like to realize in 2009.

Not much else to add. It was a very good year (I think my MFI is up about 70% right now for the year and I did briefly touch break-even). Hopefully in 2010 I'll hit the green and more of my stocks will be bought out.

Feliz Navidad!

Here is my top 50 mechanical portfolio, note the 100% increase already in SNTA:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
ITWO 12/27/08 5.61 19.01 - 87.16 1.59 238.9% 28.3% 210.6%
JOYG 12/27/08 21.95 51.82 - 87.16 1.59 136.1% 28.3% 107.8%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 3.30 - 87.16 1.59 220.4% 28.3% 192.1%
CTGX 1/3/09 3.18 7.22 - 92.96 1.59 127.0% 20.3% 106.8%
PMD 1/3/09 6.44 5.30 0.58 92.96 1.59 -8.7% 20.3% -29.0%
HPY 1/24/09 8.54 13.47 0.06 83.11 1.59 58.4% 34.5% 23.9%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 5.82 - 82.83 1.59 13.0% 35.0% -22.0%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 16.78 0.59 82.83 1.59 33.0% 35.0% -2.0%
CNU 2/8/09 1.96 3.92 - 86.98 1.59 100.0% 28.5% 71.5%
SJT 2/8/09 19.05 17.95 0.49 86.98 1.59 -3.2% 28.5% -31.7%
SGU 2/8/09 2.55 3.90 0.27 86.98 1.59 63.6% 28.5% 35.1%
TC 2/8/09 4.33 10.59 - 86.98 1.59 144.6% 28.5% 116.0%
bioc 2/14/09 3.72 4.00 - 82.76 1.59 7.5% 35.1% -27.6%
FORR 2/14/09 17.56 25.30 - 82.76 1.59 44.1% 35.1% 9.0%
ZYXI.OB 2/14/09 1.20 1.13 - 82.76 1.59 -5.8% 35.1% -40.9%
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 5.45 0.09 77.42 1.59 11.9% 44.4% -32.5%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.69 - 77.42 1.59 34.8% 44.4% -9.6%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 4.00 - 77.42 1.59 -77.7% 44.4% -122.1%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 8.87 - 77.42 1.59 193.7% 44.4% 149.3%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 5.30 - 77.42 1.59 -2.0% 44.4% -46.4%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 4.77 - 77.42 1.59 49.5% 44.4% 5.1%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 8.25 - 77.42 1.59 144.1% 44.4% 99.7%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 6.09 - 77.42 1.59 16.0% 44.4% -28.4%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 9.96 0.11 77.42 1.59 236.8% 44.4% 192.4%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 91.53 - 73.93 1.59 121.8% 51.2% 70.6%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 104.87 - 73.93 1.59 89.0% 51.2% 37.8%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 51.58 - 73.93 1.59 77.8% 51.2% 26.6%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.55 - 77.42 1.59 72.2% 44.4% 27.8%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 21.95 - 68.92 1.59 69.4% 62.2% 7.2%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 20.96 - 68.92 1.59 126.1% 62.2% 63.9%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.75 - 68.92 1.59 236.9% 62.2% 174.7%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 24.28 - 68.92 1.59 43.9% 62.2% -18.3%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.29 - 87.08 1.03 7.9% 27.7% -19.8%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 6.10 - 87.89 1.03 53.3% 26.6% 26.7%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 29.45 2.72 87.89 1.03 40.8% 26.6% 14.3%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 16.84 - 87.89 1.03 -43.5% 26.6% -70.1%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 10.39 - 87.89 1.03 19.2% 26.6% -7.4%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 6.70 - 88.71 1.03 96.5% 25.4% 71.1%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 45.26 - 92.53 1.03 48.7% 20.2% 28.5%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 10.14 - 92.53 1.03 28.4% 20.2% 8.1%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 18.30 0.32 94.55 1.03 28.3% 17.6% 10.7%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 5.50 - 94.55 1.03 20.9% 17.6% 3.2%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 5.18 - 95.08 1.03 99.2% 17.0% 82.2%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 14.83 - 92.04 0.51 -11.4% 20.3% -31.7%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 22.48 - 92.04 0.51 -2.0% 20.3% -22.3%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 29.62 - 87.96 0.51 25.0% 25.9% -0.8%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 52.45 0.31 98.06 0.51 16.2% 12.9% 3.3%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 7.01 - 98.81 0.51 7.2% 12.1% -4.9%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 19.00 - 98.81 0.51 36.2% 12.1% 24.2%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 30.94 - 98.81 0.51 6.3% 12.1% -5.8%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 37.74 - 98.81 0.51 -7.9% 12.1% -20.0%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.09 - 98.81 0.51 -20.6% 12.1% -32.6%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 7.06 - 98.81 0.51 66.9% 12.1% 54.9%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 12.80 - 98.81 0.51 3.6% 12.1% -8.4%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 3.49 - 98.81 0.51 -12.8% 12.1% -24.8%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 33.72 - 98.81 0.51 37.4% 12.1% 25.3%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 10.12 - 98.81 0.51 -11.6% 12.1% -23.7%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 8.07 - 100.79 0.51 16.1% 9.8% 6.3%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 9.8% 17.1%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 5.75 - 102.96 0.51 12.7% 7.5% 5.2%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 2.64 - 102.96 0.51 -13.2% 7.5% -20.7%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 7.31 - 102.96 0.51 60.7% 7.5% 53.1%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 2.22 - 102.60 0.51 24.0% 7.9% 16.1%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 28.30 - 104.77 0.51 8.8% 5.7% 3.2%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 4.00 - 106.72 0.51 7.5% 3.7% 3.8%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 90.67 - 103.56 - 0.4% 6.4% -6.1%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 30.56 - 103.56 - 11.4% 6.4% 5.0%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 58.40 - 107.13 - 4.3% 2.9% 1.4%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 18.91 - 107.13 - 7.4% 2.9% 4.6%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 6.40 - 107.13 - 100.0% 2.9% 97.1%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.11 - 107.13 - -13.9% 2.9% -16.7%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 7.53 - 109.62 - 8.3% 0.5% 7.8%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 25.29 - 109.43 - 7.3% 0.7% 6.6%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.97 - 109.57 - 5.1% 0.6% 4.5%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 10.52 - 111.01 - 16.1% -0.7% 16.8%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.64 - 111.01 - -11.0% -0.7% -10.3%
DYAI.PK 12/11/09 1.90 1.80 - 111.11 - -5.3% -0.8% -4.5%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 20.2% 1.0% 19.3%
54.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 7.8% -10.8% 18.6%
S&P C

110.21

Open 44.4% 23.8% 20.6%

4 comments:

MagicDiligence said...

SNTA is a perfect example of how it sometimes pays to be dumb with MFI. I wouldn't buy that stock with my worst enemy's money.

Homer315 said...

Merry Christmas Marsh.

Thanks for your hard work in keeping this blog up during the year.

Marsh_Gerda said...

Steve - these small bio techs on the list are extremely strange. I also have never bought one, they to me are classic examples of stocks I would short if I shorted stocks. However, I get the feeling that as a portfolio they have done pretty well. Is it just luck? At some point I will take my 4 years of tracking and see how they have done compared to the broader MFI.

MagicDiligence said...

I agree. It's all speculation on those dev stage biopharms. It takes a venture capitalist mind to invest in those.

Tough luck on that CSKI sale. They are up over 30% in the past few weeks!