Friday, July 29, 2016

Upcoming Tranche

August 17th Tranche

Whoa, it is almost the end of July!  I only have 14 trading days left before I need to replace my 8/17/2015 MFI Select tranche.  Currently, the tranche has VDSI, SALE, CSCO, TGNA and HSII. It has frankly struggled, down 3.6% as CSCO is my big "winner" at a mere +8.7%. The benchmark is up 4%, so it is probable this will be my third straight tranche to lose to the benchmark in my select portfolio.  No huge shame in that, that is certainly on par with where MFI tracking portfolios started first six months of 2015.

I do also track alternative portfolios. If I had rolled over my August 2014 tranche (which was officially up 11%), it has been down 4.5% - so very close to my five picks.  I also tracked the stocks I rejected a year ago,  they are down 17%! So it could have been much worse.

Looking forward, I still have a few weeks to noodle it over, but here are five stocks I am spitballing about:

AMAG - up 35% since I didn't pick in May, but they still look cheapish.
AVID - seems like a hated stock, but seems cheap too.
MPAA and WNC - a couple names associated with providing parts for auto industry. I know Ford pooh poohed 2nd half of year, but MPAA is replacement parts - seems like. Solid pick.
KFY - HSII had a great quarter, perhaps KFY will as well in early September?
WDC - not on list right now, but may do my own calculation as seems it should be on list. I actually own right now.
SVU - grocery store, cheap but with a lot of debt. I'll need to be convinced.
BLBD - sells school buses! Up 35% since I started following, is there still gas in the tank? (Sorry)
RPXC - this patent insurance company always looks so cheap. I have to at least kick the tires (another bus pun).
PINC - this just came up on radar. Looks interesting, in the HC space, which isn't that common in MFI.

That is it, ten names to start with.

1 comment:

Corpraider said...

Hey Marsh,

Have you noticed MDLZ pop up on your screen? I see QVAL and Gotham both picked up so far this year. I thought it was screening cheap on an EV/EBIT trailing basis based on a one time gain from their coffee disposition/combination but wonder if you've looked at it at all. Also sort of relevant to the formula and how well these guys are screening junk inputs. I think Gotham goes over all the data so I wonder if I'm off base throwing it out.