Been a busy holiday weekend. I finally have some time to update my investments and also wrap up the 6/26/15 monthly tracking portfolio.
Funny, funny week last week. Josh Brown summed it up well - "increased volatility in stocks, caused a two day flight to quality, which dropped yield rates, which caused people to go into stocks." Maybe not exactly what he said. At the end of the day, cash is so "cheap" right now and so plentiful and yields are so low, that investors are stretching for yield/gains of any sort. I do not know how all of this ends well, but I am also not sure what causes it to end. I am in my largest cash position of my life - y'know, I am 56 and I am no longer trying to get rich. I just don't want to lose what I have.
Overall, I am now up 5.5% at the 1/2 way point of 2016. My MFI select is down 4.4%, MFI formula is up a surprising 5.5%. My dividend approach is up 8.5%. Maybe I should not be hasty about throwing in towel on Formula approach. I was scheduled to buy 5 new stocks on Friday. It was a travel day (and I am uncertain about the markets), so I have waited.
MFI Select
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $16.23 | $0.00 | -13.0% | 1.1% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.78 | $0.00 | -16.7% | 1.1% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $28.80 | $0.68 | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $23.29 | $0.56 | -5.7% | 1.1% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $17.05 | $0.26 | -14.1% | 1.1% |
| Totals | -9.5% | 1.1% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.94 | $ - | -26.7% | 3.4% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $46.06 | $ - | 33.6% | 3.4% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $24.94 | $ 2.75 | 45.9% | 3.4% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $29.20 | $ - | 23.7% | 3.4% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.17 | $ - | 29.6% | 3.4% |
| Totals | 21.2% | 3.4% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $29.20 | $ - | 48.7% | 10.0% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $53.00 | $ 1.01 | 19.6% | 10.0% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.15 | $ - | -53.1% | 10.0% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $19.83 | $ - | 29.3% | 10.0% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $25.25 | $ - | 5.1% | 10.0% |
| Totals | 9.9% | 10.0% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $9.25 | $ 0.06 | 16.8% | 3.1% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $35.40 | $ - | -6.4% | 3.1% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $17.05 | $ - | -7.9% | 3.1% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $38.08 | $ 0.22 | -0.5% | 3.1% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $108.89 | $ - | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| Totals | 0.6% | 3.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -9.5% | 21.2% | 9.9% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 54.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 62.2% | 237.2% | 82.1% | 18.2% | 99.9% |
| Current Balance | 40,560 | 84,294 | 45,533 | 29,561 | 199,948 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 1.1% | 3.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 60.4% | 63.1% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 50.8% |
| R3K Balance | 40,109 | 40,784 | 36,643 | 33,238 | 150,774 |
| Annualized IRR | 13.2% | 39.7% | 19.1% | 5.4% | 21.1% |
My November tranche (which thankfully is my largest tranche) is outperforming. All the others are trailing. That being said, my open tranches are winning as the November lead is sizable.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| Current | 49.17% | 199,948 | 150,774 |
Still a solid lead since I started in August of 2012.
MFI Formula
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $25.51 | $1.96 | -40.9% | -0.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $31.53 | $1.01 | 10.9% | -0.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $49.29 | $1.39 | 14.1% | -0.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $53.45 | $1.97 | -12.0% | -0.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $40.81 | $1.60 | -34.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | -12.5% | -0.3% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $25.95 | $1.73 | -24.8% | 9.2% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $20.02 | $0.45 | -6.8% | 9.2% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $53.00 | $1.49 | 2.0% | 9.2% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $28.80 | $0.68 | 11.8% | 9.2% |
| CA | $27.30 | $32.78 | $0.76 | 22.8% | 9.2% |
| Totals | 1.0% | 9.2% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $31.36 | $1.01 | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| GME | $28.34 | $27.06 | $0.74 | -1.9% | 3.3% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $16.43 | $0.24 | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $24.94 | $2.75 | 24.6% | 3.3% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $41.53 | $0.80 | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Totals | 7.6% | 3.3% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $44.59 | $0.44 | -12.2% | 3.0% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $12.73 | $0.13 | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $16.28 | $0.19 | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $16.43 | $0.12 | 19.5% | 3.0% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $30.66 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| Totals | 4.4% | 3.0% |
You can see the 7/1/15 tranche is closed down (I use grey shading when I finalize).
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 1.0% | 7.6% | 4.4% | -12.5% | 0.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 1.5% | 19.4% | 4.1% | -12.5% | 3.1% |
| Current Balance | 253,453 | 298,483 | 260,447 | 218,586 | 1,030,970 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 9.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -0.3% | 3.8% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 8.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | -0.3% | 3.3% |
| R3K Balance | 271,171 | 257,611 | 254,954 | 249,047 | 1,032,783 |
| Annualized IRR | 0.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | -12.3% | 2.3% |
You can see my open tranches in aggregate (including 7/15) are trailing (+0.1% to +3.8%).
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| Current | -0.18% | 103,097 | 103,278 |
This table shows that overall it is a push, although my Jan 1 and April 1 tranches are winning.
Dividends/Warrants
I did sell my Hartford warrants this week as I turn towards cash.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.31 | $0.00 | -32.4% | -30.0% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.33 | $1.42 | 14.5% | 13.6% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.10 | $0.35 | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.05 | $9.99 | $1.83 | 30.7% | 28.8% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.41 | $18.59 | $0.15 | 1.8% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.05 | $1.52 | 13.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 67.1% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.44 | $69.64 | $18.66 | 276.7% | 259.3% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.84 | $2.22 | 59.5% | 57.4% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $7.26 | $0.19 | -14.9% | -15.6% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.69 | $10.87 | $0.12 | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 6.2% | 5.4% | 9.0% |
Do not need to look far to see my BAC warrants are the issue. Consider I bought at same time as HIG warrants. Up 74% versus down 32%. I will continue to hold, but feeling like wasted money.
Overall Dividend Income
With 2nd quarter in the books, I wanted to publish my quarterly dividend income chart (with a hiding factor). You can see how my dividend income has steadily been ratcheting up.
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