Sunday, July 24, 2016

Weekend Update 7/24/16

Weekend Update

Just got back from a quick trip to New Hampshire.  I really like spending time in the White Mountains. But I came back... this time.

Markets continue to move higher, I am now up 8.5% on the year, despite some hedging positions that have cost me some performance.  My MFI positions are actually starting to look pretty decent.  My Formula approach is up over 11% and my select is up over 4%.  The Index is up 5.2%.

MFI Select

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
Current 54.21%        208,619            154,407


This table certainly show how strong the post Brexit/July move has been.  From 201,092 to 208,619 (assuming a hypothetical $100,000 start).  QCOM had a blow out week.  SAVE did struggle.

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $17.42 $0.00 -6.7% 4.2%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.21 $0.00 -12.1% 4.2%
 CSCO  $28.95 $30.71 $0.94 9.3% 4.2%
 TGNA  $25.30 $24.85 $0.56 0.4% 4.2%
 HSII  $20.14 $17.67 $0.26 -11.0% 4.2%
 Totals  -4.0% 4.2%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $30.67 $0.00 -9.8% 6.6%
 SAVE  $34.48 $43.76 $0.00 26.9% 6.6%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.19 $2.75 47.2% 6.6%
 VEC  $23.60 $30.63 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.18 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 Totals  24.8% 6.6%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $30.63 $0.00 56.0% 13.4%
 QCOM  $45.18 $61.15 $1.01 37.6% 13.4%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.23 $0.00 -49.8% 13.4%
 DEPO  $15.34 $19.00 $0.00 23.9% 13.4%
 TDC  $24.02 $28.21 $0.00 17.4% 13.4%
 Totals  17.0% 13.4%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.12 $0.06 15.1% 6.4%
 CBI  $37.82 $35.96 $0.00 -4.9% 6.4%
 HSII  $18.51 $17.67 $0.00 -4.5% 6.4%
 RHI  $38.51 $40.98 $0.22 7.0% 6.4%
 UTHR  $107.99 $111.41 $0.00 3.2% 6.4%
 Totals  3.2% 6.4%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -4.0% 24.8% 17.0% 3.2% 12.2%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 8.4%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  72.2% 247.1% 93.9% 21.3% 108.6%
 Current Balance         43,046          86,770       48,474        30,329      208,619
 R3K Current Tranche  4.2% 6.6% 13.4% 6.4% 7.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  65.4% 68.2% 51.1% 33.0% 54.4%
 R3K Balance         41,343          42,044       37,783        33,238      154,407
 Annualized IRR  14.8% 40.1% 21.0% 6.2% 22.2%

While I have two open tranches trailing and two open tranches leading, all four tranches in total are up a solid 12.2% versus 7.7% for the benchmark.  This is helped by the fact that my November tranche has become dis-proportionately large (up 247%). and it is the one doing well again.  In fact, look at my four November tranches:

 11/15/12 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AAPL  $537.62 $527.28 $8.75 -0.3% 36.7%
 ABC  $40.21 $69.23 $0.86 74.3% 36.7%
 LPS  $23.89 $34.26 $0.40 45.1% 36.7%
 VIAB  $49.12 $80.94 $1.15 67.1% 36.7%
 WU  $12.77 $16.40 $0.50 32.3% 36.7%
 Totals  43.7% 36.7%
Up 43.7%!

 11/15/13 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AVG  $17.22 $19.21 $0.00 11.6% 14.5%
 ATVI  $17.71 $20.10 $0.20 14.6% 14.5%
 GA  $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 14.5%
 RPXC  $17.04 $13.91 $0.00 -18.4% 14.5%
 SYNA  $48.01 $61.90 $0.00 28.9% 14.5%
 Totals  14.2% 14.5%
The slacker of the group.

 11/15/2014   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 FLR  $64.80 $47.46 $0.84 -25.5% 0.8%
 IPCM  $38.45 $80.03 $0.00 108.1% 0.8%
 VIAB  $72.29 $50.69 $1.46 -27.9% 0.8%
 NHTC  $12.19 $51.46 $0.06 322.6% 0.8%
 AWRE  $4.40 $3.07 $0.00 -30.2% 0.8%
 Totals  69.4% 0.8%
Up 69%! IPCM and NHTC two of best picks ever.

11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $30.67 $0.00 -9.8% 6.6%
 SAVE  $34.48 $43.76 $0.00 26.9% 6.6%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.19 $2.75 47.2% 6.6%
 VEC  $23.60 $30.63 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.18 $0.00 29.8% 6.6%
 Totals  24.8% 6.6%
No shame here either. Four great picks out of the five so far.

MFI Formula

Wow,  all of a sudden the formula started to work very well.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
Current 2.46%        108,576            106,118

I have gone from $93,797 on 2/1/16 to $108,576 now. And I have gone from trailing the benchmark to almost a 2.5% lead.

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.99 $1.98 -24.1% 13.1%
 IQNT  $21.96 $20.82 $0.45 -3.1% 13.1%
 QCOM  $53.45 $61.15 $1.49 17.2% 13.1%
 CSCO  $26.37 $30.71 $0.94 20.0% 13.1%
 CA  $27.30 $34.40 $0.76 28.8% 13.1%
 Totals  7.8% 13.1%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $32.14 $1.01 9.4% 7.1%
 GME  $28.34 $30.81 $0.74 11.3% 7.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.65 $0.24 12.6% 7.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.19 $2.75 25.8% 7.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $45.57 $0.80 13.3% 7.1%
 Totals  14.5% 7.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $40.58 $0.44 -20.0% 6.8%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.11 $0.13 17.6% 6.8%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.46 $0.19 9.2% 6.8%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.65 $0.12 28.3% 6.8%
 TSRA  $30.79 $31.80 $0.20 3.9% 6.8%
 Totals  7.8% 6.8%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.65 $0.00 5.3% 2.6%
 VIAB  $44.00 $45.57 $0.00 3.6% 2.6%
 CPLA  $53.22 $56.73 $0.00 6.6% 2.6%
 HRB  $23.62 $23.91 $0.00 1.2% 2.6%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.80 $0.00 6.3% 2.6%
 Totals  4.6% 2.6%

So while 10/1 is still a struggle, my other three open tranches are leading.

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  7.8% 14.5% 7.8% 4.6% 8.7%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 0.0%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  8.3% 27.1% 7.5% -8.4% 8.6%
 Current Balance      270,440        317,617     269,068      228,631      1,085,756
 R3K Current Tranche  13.1% 7.1% 6.8% -0.3% 6.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  12.5% 6.8% 5.6% -0.3% 6.2%
 R3K Balance      280,945        266,953     264,243      249,047      1,061,188
 Annualized IRR  4.5% 16.5% 5.7% -7.9% 6.0%

In total, my open tranches are up 8.7% versus 6.7% for benchmark.  Not declaring victory, not thumping chest... but am quietly smiling to  myself.


Dividends & Warrants

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.83 $0.00 -21.8% -31.2% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.53 $1.48 17.9% 17.3% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.34 $0.40 11.8% 9.9% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.06 $10.50 $1.90 36.9% 34.8% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $19.09 $0.30 5.3% 2.3% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.10 $1.52 13.5% 12.5% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.57 $70.41 $18.60 277.6% 275.2% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.87 $2.23 60.3% 60.1% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.61 $0.19 -22.3% -19.6% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.69 $10.53 $0.29 1.3% 1.6% 0.0%
 Totals  9.8% 7.1% 9.0%

Very nice bounce this week.  The BAC warrants dropped to $3.04 on 7/5. Now three weeks later at $3.83.  The war is not yet won, but going to right direction.

Have a great  week everyone.

2 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

You Should be smiling. Congradulations are staying the course. You have 15 MFI Formula stocks beating the index now. I would be up 10.2% or +4.2 over the index and that does not count any dividends for the month of July.

I would consider it a big win. Also you are getting a couple of larger gains that help with the dogs.

I may sail again but for now I am overweight stocks and wanted to reduce risk in this crazy world. I also worried about only having 13 stocks to pick from now as I just don't want to do doubles or tribles.

John Carney said...

Also you 10% in Viab and 15% in IILG has worked in your favor.