Sunday, July 10, 2016

Return of MFI?

Return of MFI?

pinch me, but there are greenshoots that suggest MFI is starting to work a bit better.  Of course it has been pretty tough sledding of late.  For the past 12 closed  monthly tracking portfolio, MFI is -7.8%. That is dreadful. In the same stretch, the benchmark is +0.3%.  By definition, very flat markets.

But for the 12 open portfolios, MFI is "winning" 3 - not great, but more hopeful when you note it is 3 of the most recent 4.  Of the open portfolios, MFI is up on average 3.2% (sure beats -7.8%), while the index is up 5.4%.  Certainly too early to declare victory.  But as I mentioned, "greenshoots".

And it should be noted, that these things tend to be streaky. So if past is a good guideline for future, when MFI starts winning -  it could go on for a dozen straight tranches.

Also of note is that the dividend approach seems to be bouncing back. The 12 open dividend tranches are up 7.8% on average - so beating index by a couple points.  And 9 of the 12 dividend portfolios are beating the benchmark. So you can see why I am becoming more hopeful and why I did continue my dividend approach.

Looking at some individual stock, here are 50 of the biggest winners of late:

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
7/30/2015 WTW  $          4.14  $    11.89 187%
7/30/2015 ONE  $          2.29  $      5.13 124%
7/30/2015 GORO  $          2.17  $      4.86 124%
8/28/2015 WTW  $          5.98  $    11.89 99%
3/24/2016 MEET  $          2.96  $      5.84 97%
9/25/2015 WTW  $          6.42  $    11.89 85%
10/30/2015 ONE  $          2.94  $      5.13 74%
8/28/2015 VA  $        32.76  $    56.26 72%
5/27/2016 MEET  $          3.45  $      5.84 69%
11/27/2015 ONE  $          3.07  $      5.13 67%
12/31/2015 ONE  $          3.24  $      5.13 58%
2/26/2016 VEC  $        19.21  $    29.85 55%
10/30/2015 PPC  $        17.00  $    25.79 52%
1/29/2016 VEC  $        19.76  $    29.85 51%
3/24/2016 BBSI  $        27.56  $    41.58 51%
1/29/2016 AGX  $        30.12  $    44.40 47%
9/25/2015 CLCT  $        14.21  $    20.49 44%
1/29/2016 IILG  $        11.58  $    16.60 43%
12/31/2015 VEC  $        20.89  $    29.85 43%
2/26/2016 OUTR  $        30.84  $    43.59 41%
1/29/2016 CLCT  $        14.62  $    20.49 40%
2/26/2016 WILN  $          1.79  $      2.50 40%
3/24/2016 SRDX  $        17.62  $    24.66 40%
9/25/2015 VNCE  $          3.82  $      5.31 39%
10/30/2015 LBMH  $          2.41  $      3.35 39%
2/26/2016 AGX  $        32.02  $    44.40 39%
1/29/2016 NHTC  $        19.89  $    27.56 39%
8/28/2015 PPC  $        18.63  $    25.79 38%
7/30/2015 COH  $        30.09  $    41.56 38%
9/25/2015 WILN  $          1.81  $      2.50 38%
12/31/2015 CLCT  $        14.86  $    20.49 38%
1/29/2016 HPQ  $          9.51  $    13.08 37%
3/24/2016 VEC  $        21.75  $    29.85 37%
2/26/2016 BLBD  $          8.71  $    11.95 37%
11/27/2015 PPC  $        18.81  $    25.79 37%
12/31/2015 AGX  $        32.40  $    44.40 37%
9/25/2015 PPC  $        18.83  $    25.79 37%
8/28/2015 NATH  $        33.65  $    45.90 36%
7/30/2015 ETM  $        10.21  $    13.89 36%
9/25/2015 VEC  $        22.05  $    29.85 35%
4/22/2016 VEC  $        22.07  $    29.85 35%
9/25/2015 KING  $        13.40  $    18.00 34%
2/26/2016 MKSI  $        32.77  $    43.99 34%
3/24/2016 CLCT  $        15.30  $    20.49 34%
8/28/2015 KING  $        13.50  $    18.00 33%
8/28/2015 LBMH  $          2.52  $      3.35 33%
1/29/2016 OUTR  $        33.04  $    43.59 32%
9/25/2015 LBMH  $          2.54  $      3.35 32%
10/30/2015 APEI  $        21.73  $    28.63 32%
4/22/2016 AGX  $        33.75  $    44.40 32%

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