Saturday, July 16, 2016

Weekend Update 7/16/16

Weekend Update

Good morning everybody.  Another week has flown by.  Lots on the news front between Turkey, Nice (France) and Pence. Little of it good.  Despite the news, the markets continue to levitate.  I am now up 7.25%, which is a bit better than the benchmark.  I have a couple of hedges in place the last ten days - that has "hurt" my results. But I am sleeping better knowing I have some downside protection.

Interestingly, MFI seems to be working better of late. My MFI Index is now up almost 4% for 2016. While that still trails the benchmark, the gap has been narrowed.  That is pretty consistent with my twelve open tracking tranches - they are up an average of 5.2% versus 7.1% for the benchmark.

MFI Select

July is turning out to be a banner month for my select approach.

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
Current 54.07%        207,680            153,611


You can see it is up about 3% in the month and the lead has expanded. Looking at individual names for the month:
  • LCI +19.5%
  • CBI +10%
  • IILG +11.6%
  • HSII +6%
  • TDC +8%
  • VIAB +7%
  • VEC +10%
  • HPQ +10%

Some of these are Formula names, not select names. You'll see it has been a good month on that side as well.

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $16.44 $0.00 -11.9% 3.5%
 SALE  $9.34 $8.15 $0.00 -12.7% 3.5%
 CSCO  $28.95 $29.82 $0.94 6.3% 3.5%
 TGNA  $25.30 $24.43 $0.56 -1.2% 3.5%
 HSII  $20.14 $17.88 $0.26 -9.9% 3.5%
 Totals  -5.9% 3.5%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $28.42 $0.00 -16.4% 5.9%
 SAVE  $34.48 $47.46 $0.00 37.7% 5.9%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.17 $2.75 47.1% 5.9%
 VEC  $23.60 $31.25 $0.00 32.4% 5.9%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.34 $0.00 33.8% 5.9%
 Totals  26.9% 5.9%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $31.25 $0.00 59.1% 12.7%
 QCOM  $45.18 $54.75 $1.01 23.4% 12.7%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.15 $0.00 -53.1% 12.7%
 DEPO  $15.34 $18.81 $0.00 22.6% 12.7%
 TDC  $24.02 $27.18 $0.00 13.2% 12.7%
 Totals  13.1% 12.7%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.09 $0.06 14.7% 5.7%
 CBI  $37.82 $38.01 $0.00 0.5% 5.7%
 HSII  $18.51 $17.88 $0.00 -3.4% 5.7%
 RHI  $38.51 $39.36 $0.22 2.8% 5.7%
 UTHR  $107.99 $110.75 $0.00 2.6% 5.7%
 Totals  3.4% 5.7%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -5.9% 26.9% 13.1% 3.4% 11.7%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 8.3%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  68.7% 253.0% 87.3% 21.6% 107.7%
 Current Balance         42,186          88,251       46,834        30,409      207,680
 R3K Current Tranche  3.5% 5.9% 12.7% 5.7% 7.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  64.3% 67.1% 50.1% 33.0% 53.6%
 R3K Balance         41,072          41,768       37,533        33,238      153,611
 Annualized IRR  14.3% 41.0% 19.9% 6.3% 22.2%

You can see from this table that my open tranches are up 11.7%. That is solid. The benchmark R3K is up 7.0% over the four tranches.

MFI Formula

Kind of a breakthrough month here.  I guess Brexit was good.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
Current 1.44%        107,029            105,585

That is a pretty impressive move from 5/1 to current - over 7%.  And I am now ahead by 144 basis points. Not a stomp, but over many years, 144 basis points would compound nicely. Certainly being ahead makes it easier to stay the course.

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.93 $1.73 -24.9% 12.3%
 IQNT  $21.96 $20.52 $0.45 -4.5% 12.3%
 QCOM  $53.45 $54.75 $1.49 5.2% 12.3%
 CSCO  $26.37 $29.82 $0.94 16.6% 12.3%
 CA  $27.30 $34.17 $0.76 27.9% 12.3%
 Totals  4.1% 12.3%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $31.38 $1.01 6.9% 6.4%
 GME  $28.34 $27.99 $0.74 1.4% 6.4%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.74 $0.24 13.2% 6.4%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.17 $2.75 25.7% 6.4%
 VIAB  $40.93 $44.28 $0.80 10.2% 6.4%
 Totals  11.4% 6.4%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $44.15 $0.44 -13.0% 6.1%
 HPQ  $12.10 $13.85 $0.13 15.5% 6.1%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.37 $0.19 8.6% 6.1%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.74 $0.12 28.9% 6.1%
 TSRA  $30.79 $31.95 $0.20 4.4% 6.1%
 Totals  8.9% 6.1%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.74 $0.00 5.8% 2.0%
 VIAB  $44.00 $44.28 $0.00 0.6% 2.0%
 CPLA  $53.22 $56.43 $0.00 6.0% 2.0%
 HRB  $23.62 $24.27 $0.00 2.8% 2.0%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.85 $0.00 6.6% 2.0%
 Totals  4.4% 2.0%

Wow, three of  my four open tranches are winning.

 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  4.1% 11.4% 8.9% 4.4% 7.2%
 Previous Tranche  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.1%
 Tranche -2  0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  4.6% 23.7% 8.6% -8.6% 7.1%
 Current Balance      261,204        309,219     271,744      228,128      1,070,295
 R3K Current Tranche  12.3% 6.4% 6.1% -0.3% 6.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  11.7% 6.1% 4.9% -0.3% 5.6%
 R3K Balance      279,109        265,199     262,498      249,047      1,055,853
 Annualized IRR  2.5% 14.8% 6.6% -8.3% 5.0%

A new hope.

Dividends & Warrants

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.37 $0.00 -31.2% -33.6% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.54 $1.42 17.3% 14.7% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.19 $0.40 9.9% 9.9% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.06 $10.31 $1.90 34.8% 32.9% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $18.68 $0.15 2.3% 3.9% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.00 $1.52 12.5% 11.7% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.57 $69.84 $18.60 275.2% 277.9% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.86 $2.23 60.1% 59.9% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $6.85 $0.19 -19.6% -14.7% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.69 $10.74 $0.12 1.6% 3.0% 0.0%
 Totals  7.1% 6.5% 9.0%

Bank of America will report next week. Hopefully some good news and I can start eroding that -31.2%.  SJT should start benefiting from higher NG prices.  If prices go up and the monthly dividend follows, I could make some gains there as well.  One typically "good" thing about dividend stocks is that I reinvest all the dividends and when the stock price drops, I get more shares with me repurchase.  But that does not work for SJT as their dividend is variable based upon actual results.  So when the stocks is the cheapest, I am also getting the smallest dividend typically.

Recent Buy

I did buy some PN at $7.73 this week. EBIX offered to buy them at $9.50 back in June - so I am hoping EBIX comes back with a higher bid.  These deals have rarely work for me - but in today's challenged markets, I am going to be looking for more of these special situations that may have asymmetrical returns... the REXI deal was eye-opening to me. I mean REXI announced they were going to look to sell themselves. After a short term spike, the markets (which have the attention span of a fruit fly) gave most of it back. So an investor had a chance for great upside with limited downside.

I am going to hunt for more of those...  PN is my first try.

1 comment:

Corpraider said...

Seem to be doing better than QVAL and Gotham, YTD. Maybe your selections are adding some value!