Weekend Update 7/24/16

Weekend Update

Just got back from a quick trip to New Hampshire.  I really like spending time in the White Mountains. But I came back... this time.

Markets continue to move higher, I am now up 8.5% on the year, despite some hedging positions that have cost me some performance.  My MFI positions are actually starting to look pretty decent.  My Formula approach is up over 11% and my select is up over 4%.  The Index is up 5.2%.

MFI Select

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936
12/1/2015	73.49%	223,435	149,946
1/1/2016	63.33%	209,514	146,186
2/1/2016	49.49%	187,428	137,934
3/1/2016	56.48%	194,415	137,934
4/1/2016	47.34%	195,770	148,430
5/1/2016	46.38%	194,301	147,923
6/1/2016	51.44%	201,999	150,558
7/1/2016	50.41%	201,092	150,680
Current	54.21%	208,619	154,407

This table certainly show how strong the post Brexit/July move has been.  From 201,092 to 208,619 (assuming a hypothetical $100,000 start).  QCOM had a blow out week.  SAVE did struggle.

8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$17.42	$0.00	-6.7%	4.2%
SALE	$9.34	$8.21	$0.00	-12.1%	4.2%
CSCO	$28.95	$30.71	$0.94	9.3%	4.2%
TGNA	$25.30	$24.85	$0.56	0.4%	4.2%
HSII	$20.14	$17.67	$0.26	-11.0%	4.2%
Totals				-4.0%	4.2%
11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$30.67	$0.00	-9.8%	6.6%
SAVE	$34.48	$43.76	$0.00	26.9%	6.6%
PPC	$18.98	$25.19	$2.75	47.2%	6.6%
VEC	$23.60	$30.63	$0.00	29.8%	6.6%
VNCE	$3.99	$5.18	$0.00	29.8%	6.6%
Totals				24.8%	6.6%
2/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$19.64	$30.63	$0.00	56.0%	13.4%
QCOM	$45.18	$61.15	$1.01	37.6%	13.4%
PERI	$2.45	$1.23	$0.00	-49.8%	13.4%
DEPO	$15.34	$19.00	$0.00	23.9%	13.4%
TDC	$24.02	$28.21	$0.00	17.4%	13.4%
Totals				17.0%	13.4%
5/6/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BRCD	$7.97	$9.12	$0.06	15.1%	6.4%
CBI	$37.82	$35.96	$0.00	-4.9%	6.4%
HSII	$18.51	$17.67	$0.00	-4.5%	6.4%
RHI	$38.51	$40.98	$0.22	7.0%	6.4%
UTHR	$107.99	$111.41	$0.00	3.2%	6.4%
Totals				3.2%	6.4%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-4.0%	24.8%	17.0%	3.2%	12.2%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	69.4%	-14.3%	-25.2%	8.4%
Tranche -2	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	18.3%	20.6%
Tranche -3	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	33.0%	42.3%
MFI Overall Gain	72.2%	247.1%	93.9%	21.3%	108.6%
Current Balance	43,046	86,770	48,474	30,329	208,619
R3K Current Tranche	4.2%	6.6%	13.4%	6.4%	7.7%
R3K Overall Gain	65.4%	68.2%	51.1%	33.0%	54.4%
R3K Balance	41,343	42,044	37,783	33,238	154,407
Annualized IRR	14.8%	40.1%	21.0%	6.2%	22.2%

While I have two open tranches trailing and two open tranches leading, all four tranches in total are up a solid 12.2% versus 7.7% for the benchmark.  This is helped by the fact that my November tranche has become dis-proportionately large (up 247%). and it is the one doing well again.  In fact, look at my four November tranches:

11/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$527.28	$8.75	-0.3%	36.7%
ABC	$40.21	$69.23	$0.86	74.3%	36.7%
LPS	$23.89	$34.26	$0.40	45.1%	36.7%
VIAB	$49.12	$80.94	$1.15	67.1%	36.7%
WU	$12.77	$16.40	$0.50	32.3%	36.7%
Totals				43.7%	36.7%

Up 43.7%!

11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$19.21	$0.00	11.6%	14.5%
ATVI	$17.71	$20.10	$0.20	14.6%	14.5%
GA	$9.04	$11.90	$0.23	34.2%	14.5%
RPXC	$17.04	$13.91	$0.00	-18.4%	14.5%
SYNA	$48.01	$61.90	$0.00	28.9%	14.5%
Totals				14.2%	14.5%

The slacker of the group.

11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$47.46	$0.84	-25.5%	0.8%
IPCM	$38.45	$80.03	$0.00	108.1%	0.8%
VIAB	$72.29	$50.69	$1.46	-27.9%	0.8%
NHTC	$12.19	$51.46	$0.06	322.6%	0.8%
AWRE	$4.40	$3.07	$0.00	-30.2%	0.8%
Totals				69.4%	0.8%

Up 69%! IPCM and NHTC two of best picks ever.

11/15/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$34.01	$30.67	$0.00	-9.8%	6.6%
SAVE	$34.48	$43.76	$0.00	26.9%	6.6%
PPC	$18.98	$25.19	$2.75	47.2%	6.6%
VEC	$23.60	$30.63	$0.00	29.8%	6.6%
VNCE	$3.99	$5.18	$0.00	29.8%	6.6%
Totals				24.8%	6.6%

No shame here either. Four great picks out of the five so far.

MFI Formula

Wow,  all of a sudden the formula started to work very well.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907
12/1/2015	-3.48%	99,443	102,926
1/1/2016	-3.36%	96,830	100,012
2/1/2016	-0.72%	93,797	94,367
3/1/2016	4.07%	98,588	94,367
4/1/2016	0.34%	102,371	101,548
5/1/2016	-1.91%	99,774	101,200
6/1/2016	-0.42%	103,145	103,568
7/1/2016	-0.19%	103,022	103,216
Current	2.46%	108,576	106,118

I have gone from $93,797 on 2/1/16 to $108,576 now. And I have gone from trailing the benchmark to almost a 2.5% lead.

10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$25.99	$1.98	-24.1%	13.1%
IQNT	$21.96	$20.82	$0.45	-3.1%	13.1%
QCOM	$53.45	$61.15	$1.49	17.2%	13.1%
CSCO	$26.37	$30.71	$0.94	20.0%	13.1%
CA	$27.30	$34.40	$0.76	28.8%	13.1%
Totals				7.8%	13.1%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$32.14	$1.01	9.4%	7.1%
GME	$28.34	$30.81	$0.74	11.3%	7.1%
IILG	$15.89	$17.65	$0.24	12.6%	7.1%
PPC	$22.22	$25.19	$2.75	25.8%	7.1%
VIAB	$40.93	$45.57	$0.80	13.3%	7.1%
Totals				14.5%	7.1%
4/1/16 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CALM	$51.27	$40.58	$0.44	-20.0%	6.8%
HPQ	$12.10	$14.11	$0.13	17.6%	6.8%
TIME	$15.24	$16.46	$0.19	9.2%	6.8%
IILG	$13.85	$17.65	$0.12	28.3%	6.8%
TSRA	$30.79	$31.80	$0.20	3.9%	6.8%
Totals				7.8%	6.8%
7/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
IILG	$16.76	$17.65	$0.00	5.3%	2.6%
VIAB	$44.00	$45.57	$0.00	3.6%	2.6%
CPLA	$53.22	$56.73	$0.00	6.6%	2.6%
HRB	$23.62	$23.91	$0.00	1.2%	2.6%
PBI	$17.69	$18.80	$0.00	6.3%	2.6%
Totals				4.6%	2.6%

So while 10/1 is still a struggle, my other three open tranches are leading.

Category/Tranche	October	January	April	July	Total
Initial Investment	249,820	249,939	250,180	249,728	999,667
Current Tranche	7.8%	14.5%	7.8%	4.6%	8.7%
Previous Tranche	0.5%	11.0%	-0.2%	-12.5%	0.0%
Tranche -2	0.0%	-	-	-	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	8.3%	27.1%	7.5%	-8.4%	8.6%
Current Balance	270,440	317,617	269,068	228,631	1,085,756
R3K Current Tranche	13.1%	7.1%	6.8%	-0.3%	6.7%
R3K Overall Gain	12.5%	6.8%	5.6%	-0.3%	6.2%
R3K Balance	280,945	266,953	264,243	249,047	1,061,188
Annualized IRR	4.5%	16.5%	5.7%	-7.9%	6.0%

In total, my open tranches are up 8.7% versus 6.7% for benchmark.  Not declaring victory, not thumping chest... but am quietly smiling to  myself.

Dividends & Warrants

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week	June 1 2016
BAC-WTA	$4.90	$3.83	$0.00	-21.8%	-31.2%	-20.6%
AOD	$7.64	$7.53	$1.48	17.9%	17.3%	17.1%
JQC	$7.82	$8.34	$0.40	11.8%	9.9%	8.4%
CSQ	$9.06	$10.50	$1.90	36.9%	34.8%	30.5%
DSL	$18.41	$19.09	$0.30	5.3%	2.3%	0.0%
TGONF	$10.24	$10.10	$1.52	13.5%	12.5%	12.5%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$36.90	$0.00	73.8%	73.8%	75.7%
O	$23.57	$70.41	$18.60	277.6%	275.2%	249.0%
OIBAX	$5.06	$5.87	$2.23	60.3%	60.1%	58.1%
SJT	$8.75	$6.61	$0.19	-22.3%	-19.6%	-14.4%
GLDI	$10.69	$10.53	$0.29	1.3%	1.6%	0.0%
Totals				9.8%	7.1%	9.0%

Very nice bounce this week.  The BAC warrants dropped to $3.04 on 7/5. Now three weeks later at $3.83.  The war is not yet won, but going to right direction.

Have a great  week everyone.