I think I know the stocks I want to buy for the next MFI tranche.
The Quandry is that several of them report earnings between now and November 15th. I am unsure whether I should buy them in advance of earnings, or whether I should just wait until November 15th and then perhaps change my picks. I will definitely be kicking myself if I do not buy and several of them run up post earnings. Of course I will kick myself (this is getting old) if I do buy and they flop due to earnings. My gut is that I should move the date up to November 1st so I am not right in the midst of earnings season. But the more I think about it, the more I think I just need to play by the rules.
Hmmm, I will decide by Thursday. It may depend on what the broader market does. I suppose a middle ground is that I buy them now, but only start tracking them for MFI as of November 15th.
Thoughts?
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2 comments:
I try to buy my picks after they have announced earnings. At the end of the day I think it is a toss up though if you follow a strict 1-year +/- 1 day holding period. To eliminate the quandary you could always try to slowly roll your tranche purchase/sell date to in between earnings seasons...
j
I like that the rules govern when to close a position. Arbitrary rules are probably better than constant emotional trading that most people do.
I am less sure how the rules would inform my buying decision. Maybe the mindset of tranches simplifies tracking rather than buying stocks throughout the year and tracking them individual. It might also prevent me from overbuying when the market has been on a roll.
I guess if I was confident in the picks, or did not have any other ideas, I would buy early. Otherwise, I would wait for earnings.
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