Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006. Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months. It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.
Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak".. This month-end extended the winning streak to 5! It went up an excellent 48.3 %,stomping the R3K, which was up a less excellent 23.9%! I had to go all the way back to April 2009 to find a portfolio that won by a greater amount. Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | 52 week low | Mkt Cap |
| 41.11 | 113.98 | 177.3% | 32.36 | 2,525 | |
| QCOR | 25.31 | 68.56 | 170.9% | 17.25 | 1,530 |
| SAVE | 17.03 | 42.03 | 146.8% | 15.64 | 1,235 |
| 22.23 | 54.80 | 146.5% | 18.90 | 2,864 | |
| TW | 52.72 | 114.34 | 116.9% | 49.74 | 3,811 |
| EXPR | 11.15 | 23.28 | 108.8% | 10.47 | 967 |
| WCRX | 11.36 | 22.93 | 101.8% | 10.85 | 2,946 |
| 28.54 | 55.31 | 93.8% | 28.08 | 1,324 | |
| CPLA | 31.74 | 61.10 | 92.5% | 26.38 | 406 |
| 21.49 | 39.18 | 82.3% | 11.69 | 501 | |
| 26.74 | 48.56 | 81.6% | 24.90 | 10,836 | |
| RPXC | 9.78 | 17.42 | 78.1% | 8.55 | 509 |
| 44.25 | 76.19 | 72.2% | 30.51 | 626 | |
| SAI | 9.80 | 16.87 | 72.1% | N/A | 3,694 |
| GTAT | 5.12 | 8.65 | 68.9% | 2.61 | 608 |
| 17.17 | 28.70 | 67.2% | 16.44 | 4,812 | |
| VG | 2.24 | 3.58 | 59.8% | 2.05 | 507 |
| BAH | 12.25 | 19.51 | 59.3% | 11.85 | 1,674 |
| 7.59 | 11.87 | 56.4% | 6.98 | 4,326 | |
| 9.01 | 13.85 | 53.7% | 8.69 | 15,994 | |
| 53.88 | 78.08 | 44.9% | 52.24 | 18,384 | |
| 19.72 | 28.25 | 43.3% | 15.98 | 2,213 | |
| CACI | 49.45 | 70.32 | 42.2% | 48.56 | 1,218 |
| PETS | 10.26 | 14.58 | 42.1% | 9.63 | 215 |
| CA | 21.86 | 30.39 | 39.0% | 21.48 | 10,410 |
| USMO | 10.73 | 14.75 | 37.5% | 10.34 | 247 |
| AGX | 16.69 | 22.51 | 34.9% | 13.90 | 238 |
| 21.61 | 28.96 | 34.0% | 21.58 | 825 | |
| 16.78 | 22.37 | 33.3% | 16.68 | 91,602 | |
| 9.89 | 13.16 | 33.1% | 9.41 | 733 | |
| DLB | 27.26 | 35.11 | 28.8% | 28.66 | 3,235 |
| MNTA | 13.14 | 16.69 | 27.0% | 10.05 | 679 |
| 15.33 | 19.18 | 25.1% | 12.91 | 266 | |
| LPS | 26.94 | 33.68 | 25.0% | 21.23 | 2,312 |
| 27.36 | 33.72 | 23.2% | 26.26 | 237,585 | |
| TZOO | 17.96 | 21.81 | 21.4% | 16.56 | 285 |
| HFC | 36.87 | 43.76 | 18.7% | 36.22 | 8,141 |
| 19.14 | 22.09 | 15.4% | 17.68 | 132 | |
| 7.46 | 8.36 | 12.1% | 6.50 | 1,531 | |
| 63.10 | 70.33 | 11.5% | 61.50 | 112 | |
| 25.10 | 27.51 | 9.6% | 23.69 | 1,024 | |
| INTX | 8.20 | 8.72 | 6.3% | 7.83 | 169 |
| CF | 203.18 | 210.13 | 3.4% | 169.33 | 12,831 |
| 6.31 | 6.44 | 2.1% | 4.26 | 190 | |
| 18.90 | 19.23 | 1.7% | 17.66 | 196 | |
| TNAV | 7.15 | 7.15 | 0.0% | 4.91 | 294 |
| 56.57 | 48.74 | -13.8% | 40.03 | 686 | |
| NSU | 4.55 | 3.60 | -20.9% | 2.65 | 942 |
| EGY | 7.95 | 5.66 | -28.8% | 5.16 | 454 |
| BODY | 9.98 | 5.38 | -46.1% | 6.06 | 162 |
This is the first tracking portfolio in decades (ok maybe not that long) where the For profit Education Stocks were NOT a drag. The 4 of them were up on average by a whopping 51%. Read my
Anatomy of A MFI Stock
post. And there were seven stocks up 100% or more. I can not remember more than that. I do think things are continuing to change. You can see that in the next table!
Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:
| Average of Percent Change | |
| Date | Total |
| 16.0% | |
| 21.2% | |
| 13.0% | |
| 10.3% | |
| 20.4% | |
| 29.2% | |
| 22.4% | |
| 19.7% | |
| 13.0% | |
| 12.7% | |
| 10.3% | |
| -0.3% | |
| -6.9% | |
| -10.2% | |
| -3.7% | |
| -9.8% | |
| -10.9% | |
| -11.5% | |
| -30.0% | |
| -19.9% | |
| -12.5% | |
| -19.0% | |
| -40.4% | |
| -40.1% | |
| -36.3% | |
| -36.4% | |
| -51.7% | |
| -40.9% | |
| -25.6% | |
| -22.2% | |
| -11.7% | |
| -10.5% | |
| -13.8% | |
| -4.3% | |
| 18.7% | |
| 50.9% | |
| 48.9% | |
| 59.3% | |
| 92.8% | |
| 85.8% | |
| 69.7% | |
| 31.8% | |
| 21.3% | |
| 19.5% | |
| 7.4% | |
| 12.6% | |
| 22.7% | |
| 24.3% | |
| 23.7% | |
| 19.0% | |
| 18.6% | |
| 10.0% | |
| 7.1% | |
| 19.3% | |
| 16.7% | |
| 5.4% | |
| 7.3% | |
| -4.3% | |
| -2.9% | |
| -8.5% | |
| -11.4% | |
| -7.6% | |
| -5.5% | |
| -4.4% | |
| -16.0% | |
| -12.0% | |
| -9.5% | |
| -4.3% | |
| 12.0% | |
| 23.5% | |
| 0.4% | |
| 13.9% | |
| 9.9% | |
| 7.4% | |
| 7.8% | |
| 9.1% | |
| 10.5% | |
| 26.5% | |
| 26.1% | |
| 30.4% | |
| 26.0% | |
| 39.3% | |
| 48.3% | |
| 43.4% | |
| 46.0% | |
| 38.5% | |
| 35.8% | |
| 33.8% | |
| 27.4% | |
| 16.7% | |
| 18.1% | |
| 9.7% | |
| 9.4% | |
| 4.5% | |
| Grand Total | 9.6% |
As noted, this is the fifth straight portfolio to win after 29 straight losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random). However ALL 11 open portfolios are leading the Russell 3000 (by an average of almost 12 points.
Subsets
I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios: (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months. The dividend portfolio was most excellent, up about 37.5%. The new portfolio was solid okay, up 35.9%. Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%. So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.
| Category | Value |
| Total | 163,229 |
| Total New | 160,085 |
| Total Dividend | 367,845 |
| Total Russell 3K | 160,745 |
I am sure my eagle eyed readers have noted that the "Total" is now beating the Russell 3000 total. It has been a long and arduous road, but MFI (by my measure) is officially beating the benchmark!
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