Sunday, October 27, 2013

October 24th 2012 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

October 24th 2012 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  This month-end extended the winning streak to 5! It went up an excellent 48.3 %,stomping the R3K, which was up a less excellent 23.9%!  I had to go all the way back to April 2009 to find a portfolio that won by a greater amount. Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  52 week low   Mkt Cap 
NUS              41.11         113.98 177.3%                32.36         2,525
QCOR              25.31           68.56 170.9%                17.25         1,530
SAVE              17.03           42.03 146.8%                15.64         1,235
GME              22.23           54.80 146.5%                18.90         2,864
TW              52.72         114.34 116.9%                49.74         3,811
EXPR              11.15           23.28 108.8%                10.47           967
WCRX              11.36           22.93 101.8%                10.85         2,946
JCOM              28.54           55.31 93.8%                28.08         1,324
CPLA              31.74           61.10 92.5%                26.38           406
ESI              21.49           39.18 82.3%                11.69           501
STX              26.74           48.56 81.6%                24.90       10,836
RPXC                9.78           17.42 78.1%                 8.55           509
USNA              44.25           76.19 72.2%                30.51           626
SAI                9.80           16.87 72.1%  N/A          3,694
GTAT                5.12             8.65 68.9%                 2.61           608
HRB              17.17           28.70 67.2%                16.44         4,812
VG                2.24             3.58 59.8%                 2.05           507
BAH              12.25           19.51 59.3%                11.85         1,674
MRVL                7.59           11.87 56.4%                 6.98         4,326
DELL                9.01           13.85 53.7%                 8.69       15,994
RTN              53.88           78.08 44.9%                52.24       18,384
APOL              19.72           28.25 43.3%                15.98         2,213
CACI              49.45           70.32 42.2%                48.56         1,218
PETS              10.26           14.58 42.1%                 9.63           215
CA              21.86           30.39 39.0%                21.48       10,410
USMO              10.73           14.75 37.5%                10.34           247
AGX              16.69           22.51 34.9%                13.90           238
MANT              21.61           28.96 34.0%                21.58           825
CSCO              16.78           22.37 33.3%                16.68       91,602
KLIC                9.89           13.16 33.1%                 9.41           733
DLB              27.26           35.11 28.8%                28.66         3,235
MNTA              13.14           16.69 27.0%                10.05           679
NATR              15.33           19.18 25.1%                12.91           266
LPS              26.94           33.68 25.0%                21.23         2,312
MSFT              27.36           33.72 23.2%                26.26     237,585
TZOO              17.96           21.81 21.4%                16.56           285
HFC              36.87           43.76 18.7%                36.22         8,141
DMRC              19.14           22.09 15.4%                17.68           132
PDLI                7.46             8.36 12.1%                 6.50         1,531
GNI              63.10           70.33 11.5%                61.50           112
VCI              25.10           27.51 9.6%                23.69         1,024
INTX                8.20             8.72 6.3%                 7.83           169
CF            203.18         210.13 3.4%              169.33       12,831
POZN                6.31             6.44 2.1%                 4.26           190
AFAM              18.90           19.23 1.7%                17.66           196
TNAV                7.15             7.15 0.0%                 4.91           294
STRA              56.57           48.74 -13.8%                40.03           686
NSU                4.55             3.60 -20.9%                 2.65           942
EGY                7.95             5.66 -28.8%                 5.16           454
BODY                9.98             5.38 -46.1%                 6.06           162


This is the first tracking portfolio in decades (ok maybe not that long) where the For profit Education Stocks were NOT a drag.  The 4 of them were up on average by a whopping 51%.  Read my

Anatomy of A MFI Stock


post. And there were seven stocks up 100% or more.  I can not remember more than that.  I do think things are continuing to change.  You can see that in the next table!

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:

Average of Percent Change  
Date Total
1/6/2006 16.0%
2/17/2006 21.2%
3/29/2006 13.0%
4/7/2006 10.3%
5/12/2006 20.4%
5/31/2006 29.2%
6/30/2006 22.4%
7/31/2006 19.7%
8/31/2006 13.0%
9/28/2006 12.7%
10/27/2006 10.3%
11/29/2006 -0.3%
12/28/2006 -6.9%
1/26/2007 -10.2%
2/27/2007 -3.7%
3/26/2007 -9.8%
4/27/2007 -10.9%
5/29/2007 -11.5%
7/3/2007 -30.0%
7/30/2007 -19.9%
8/30/2007 -12.5%
9/27/2007 -19.0%
11/2/2007 -40.4%
11/28/2007 -40.1%
12/28/2007 -36.3%
1/25/2008 -36.4%
2/26/2008 -51.7%
3/24/2008 -40.9%
4/25/2008 -25.6%
5/28/2008 -22.2%
7/2/2008 -11.7%
7/29/2008 -10.5%
8/29/2008 -13.8%
9/26/2008 -4.3%
10/31/2008 18.7%
11/26/2008 50.9%
12/26/2008 48.9%
1/23/2009 59.3%
2/27/2009 92.8%
3/27/2009 85.8%
4/24/2009 69.7%
5/29/2009 31.8%
6/29/2009 21.3%
7/29/2009 19.5%
8/28/2009 7.4%
9/25/2009 12.6%
10/30/2009 22.7%
11/27/2009 24.3%
12/31/2009 23.7%
1/22/2010 19.0%
2/26/2010 18.6%
3/25/2010 10.0%
4/23/2010 7.1%
5/28/2010 19.3%
6/29/2010 16.7%
7/29/2010 5.4%
9/2/2010 7.3%
9/24/2010 -4.3%
10/29/2010 -2.9%
11/26/2010 -8.5%
1/3/2011 -11.4%
1/28/2011 -7.6%
2/25/2011 -5.5%
3/24/2011 -4.4%
4/21/2011 -16.0%
5/27/2011 -12.0%
6/24/2011 -9.5%
7/29/2011 -4.3%
8/26/2011 12.0%
9/30/2011 23.5%
10/28/2011 0.4%
11/25/2011 13.9%
12/29/2011 9.9%
1/27/2012 7.4%
2/24/2012 7.8%
3/23/2012 9.1%
4/27/2012 10.5%
5/25/2012 26.5%
6/22/2012 26.1%
7/27/2012 30.4%
8/24/2012 26.0%
9/28/2012 39.3%
10/26/2012 48.3%
11/23/2012 43.4%
12/31/2012 46.0%
1/25/2013 38.5%
2/22/2013 35.8%
3/28/2013 33.8%
4/26/2013 27.4%
5/24/2013 16.7%
6/28/2013 18.1%
7/29/2013 9.7%
8/30/2013 9.4%
9/27/2013 4.5%
Grand Total 9.6%


As noted, this is the fifth straight portfolio to win after 29 straight losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random).  However ALL 11 open portfolios are leading the Russell 3000 (by an average of almost 12 points.

Subsets

I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months.  The dividend portfolio was most excellent, up about 37.5%.  The new portfolio was solid okay, up 35.9%.  Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.

Category Value
Total   163,229
Total New   160,085
Total Dividend   367,845
Total Russell 3K   160,745

I am sure my eagle eyed readers have noted that the "Total" is now beating the Russell 3000 total.  It has been a long and arduous road, but MFI (by my measure) is officially  beating the benchmark!

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