Thursday, October 17, 2013

Another Day = Another All Time High

It is starting to feel like 1999 and 2000 all over again.  There are a ton of stocks that are just skyrocketing with out the underlying profits.  There are so many it is hard to list. TSLA, NFLX, LNKD, SPLK, P, FB, SCTY... Or pick from dozens of biotech firms. There is probably money to be made, but my track record of shorting stocks is terrible.

Of course everyone either thinks they can either get out before things crash or my stocks are different.  I think that.

While the markets go up, I keep reading earnings reports and they just are not all that impressive.  IBM, GS, XLNX were lukewarm ones today.  But the market just shrugs them off.

Speaking of IBM, I am going to keep an eye on them.  I have so much old-tech already (CSCO, INTL and AAPL); that IBM would feel right at home.  Seriously, they may enter the screen pretty soon if they sell off much more.  I could certainly entertain them for my November (to remember) tranche.

I think I will be making a shift between portfolios starting in November.  My dividend portfolio has been the largest in terms of $ for the past couple years.  I am going to move towards making the three more equal.  So I will increase $ in MFI in November, I am thinking a 50% bump.  Then I will likely sell one of my dividend positions, STO is the most likely option.  The sale of STO, will actually be just about the right amount of $ to increase my 5 MFI stocks by 50%.  As I said, I have been under-sized with MFI portfolio.

I thought the Motley Fool had a great article today about the psychology of investing.  Here is a link (Investing Like a Psychopath).

The MFI Index is now up over 42% for the year.  My MFI is up 41%, but recall I was 50% in cash at start of year.  Here is a table showing MFI Index vs Russell 3000 (a 18 point thrashing. My MFI holdings are over 20 points above the R3K):

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.38% 9.70% 32.52% 16.56%
2013 24.48% 42.57% 64.96% 66.17%

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