Let me tell you, this has been a great tranche so far. It is up 42% since I bought it 10.5 months ago. The R3K is just up 29%. It is funny, because when I bought the portfolio I was trying toe be defensive, worried about the upcoming fiscal cliff. It turned out that was a great day to be a stock picker. It was just after the Obama victory and the markets had sold off a bit, even though it had been clear for more than a month that Romney would not win.
The tranche consists of AAPL, ABC, LPS, VIAB and WU. Poor Apple is down 7%, but the other four did VERY well. Viacom is the big winner, up 70% as I type.
When I start thinking about stocks that I want to consider I do struggle a bit. I mean the market is up over 20% this year! Washington is dysfunctional. But here are stocks I am currently considering:
1. AAPL - I could just roll them over. Bill Miller just called them a no-brainer. It is very tempting.
2. CSCO - as long as we're talking big/old tech. CSCO looks very cheap on many metrics.
3. KLIC - I own them in my current May and August tranches. I am yet to own a stock in three tranches, but the reasons I bought them twice are unchanged.
4. COH - sometimes I think I would like some retail in my portfolio. COH seems pretty reasonable in the space.
5. EBIX - this is a much hated company. Under SEC scrutiny, pushed by short sellers. But those have been some of the outsized winners in the past. Should I hold my nose?
6. GTIV - this is a LTC play. Demographics say nursing homes are a growth industry. I do not think Obamacare comes into play here. But state reimbursements like Medicare or Medicaid may be needed.
7. NOC or XLS - defense companies have done pretty well in 2013, but they still look reasonable by many metrics.
8. WTW - there is a lot of chatter that weight watchers will be replaced by cheaper online alternatives. I don't know, it seems like to be successful it would help to be part of a group.
9. MO - if you think the economy will struggle, big tobacco is always a decent hiding place.
10. CALL, NDZ, RFILand MNDO are all smaller stocks on my watch list that are not on the official list. I have done pretty well with unofficial stocks of late: GA is up 58%, CYOU up 23%, RDA up 58%. KLIC has been my one laggard, pretty flat in both tranches.
S obviously a number of stocks to research and consider. I also will think about short ratios, I did note that stocks that have not seen their short ratio change much in past month have typically done better.
3rd Quarter MFI Results
I thought my readers would like to see how the Index did (by stock) for the 3rd quarter and YTD.
| Index | Stock | Start | Last Quarter | Current | YTD Change | Quarterly Change | Shares |
| 1 | APOL | 20.92 | 17.72 | 20.81 | -0.5% | 17.4% | 11.14 |
| 2 | AGX | 18.00 | 15.60 | 21.97 | 22.1% | 40.8% | 12.95 |
| 3 | BAH | 13.92 | 17.57 | 19.61 | 40.9% | 11.6% | 16.75 |
| 4 | CA | 21.98 | 29.12 | 30.42 | 38.4% | 4.5% | 10.61 |
| 5 | CPLA | 28.23 | 41.65 | 56.56 | 100.4% | 35.8% | 8.26 |
| 6 | CF | 203.16 | 171.90 | 211.43 | 4.1% | 23.0% | 1.15 |
| 7 | CSCO | 19.65 | 24.51 | 23.77 | 21.0% | -3.0% | 11.86 |
| 8 | DELL | 10.14 | 13.41 | 13.91 | 37.2% | 3.8% | 22.99 |
| 9 | DLX | 32.24 | 35.15 | 42.41 | 31.5% | 20.7% | 7.23 |
| 10 | DMRC | 20.70 | 20.99 | 20.53 | -0.8% | -2.2% | 11.26 |
| 11 | DLB | 29.33 | 33.45 | 34.51 | 17.7% | 3.2% | 7.95 |
| 12 | GME | 25.09 | 42.63 | 50.48 | 101.2% | 18.4% | 9.29 |
| 13 | GNI | 67.20 | 71.15 | 74.25 | 10.5% | 4.4% | 3.47 |
| 14 | GTAT | 3.03 | 4.15 | 8.51 | 180.9% | 105.1% | 76.93 |
| 15 | HLF | 32.94 | 45.74 | 70.67 | 114.5% | 54.5% | 7.08 |
| 16 | HFC | 46.55 | 44.38 | 43.71 | -6.1% | -1.5% | 5.01 |
| 17 | IDCC | 41.09 | 44.85 | 37.64 | -8.4% | -16.1% | 5.67 |
| 18 | INTX | 9.48 | 9.17 | 9.37 | -1.2% | 2.2% | 24.59 |
| 19 | ESI | 17.31 | 24.40 | 31.00 | 79.1% | 27.0% | 13.47 |
| 20 | JCOM | 30.60 | 42.98 | 50.23 | 64.2% | 16.9% | 7.62 |
| 21 | KLIC | 11.99 | 11.06 | 11.55 | -3.7% | 4.4% | 19.44 |
| 22 | LPS | 24.62 | 32.55 | 33.57 | 36.4% | 3.1% | 9.47 |
| 23 | MANT | 25.94 | 26.54 | 29.39 | 13.3% | 10.7% | 8.99 |
| 24 | MSFT | 26.71 | 35.01 | 33.97 | 27.2% | -3.0% | 8.73 |
| 25 | NATR | 14.48 | 16.55 | 20.81 | 43.7% | 25.7% | 16.10 |
| 26 | NSU | 4.28 | 2.95 | 3.24 | -24.3% | 9.8% | 54.47 |
| 27 | NTI | 25.44 | 26.52 | 22.90 | -10.0% | -13.7% | 9.16 |
| 28 | NUS | 37.05 | 61.72 | 96.64 | 160.8% | 56.6% | 6.29 |
| 29 | PDLI | 7.04 | 8.02 | 8.27 | 17.5% | 3.1% | 33.11 |
| 30 | PETS | 11.10 | 12.90 | 16.75 | 50.9% | 29.8% | 21.00 |
| 31 | PBI | 10.64 | 15.24 | 18.94 | 78.0% | 24.3% | 21.91 |
| 32 | POOSF | 1.42 | - | - | -100.0% | #DIV/0! | 164.63 |
| 33 | POZN | 5.01 | 5.01 | 5.73 | 14.4% | 14.4% | 46.53 |
| 34 | QCOR | 26.72 | 45.94 | 58.75 | 119.9% | 27.9% | 8.72 |
| 35 | RTN | 57.56 | 66.67 | 78.17 | 35.8% | 17.2% | 4.05 |
| 36 | RPXC | 9.04 | 16.80 | 17.54 | 94.0% | 4.4% | 25.79 |
| 37 | SAI | 11.32 | 15.05 | 17.27 | 52.6% | 14.8% | 20.59 |
| 38 | STX | 30.42 | 45.21 | 44.52 | 46.4% | -1.5% | 7.66 |
| 39 | SVLC | 2.52 | 1.39 | 1.77 | -29.8% | 27.3% | 92.51 |
| 40 | SAVE | 17.73 | 31.72 | 34.27 | 93.3% | 8.0% | 13.15 |
| 41 | STRA | 56.17 | 48.83 | 41.52 | -26.1% | -15.0% | 4.15 |
| 42 | TNAV | 7.99 | 5.23 | 5.84 | -26.9% | 11.7% | 29.18 |
| 43 | TZOO | 18.99 | 27.26 | 26.52 | 39.7% | -2.7% | 12.28 |
| 44 | UIS | 17.30 | 22.07 | 25.19 | 45.6% | 14.1% | 13.47 |
| 45 | USMO | 11.68 | 13.82 | 14.54 | 24.4% | 5.2% | 19.96 |
| 46 | USNA | 32.93 | 72.38 | 86.79 | 163.6% | 19.9% | 7.08 |
| 47 | EGY | 8.65 | 5.72 | 5.58 | -35.5% | -2.4% | 26.95 |
| 48 | VCI | 25.78 | 24.90 | 29.50 | 14.4% | 18.5% | 9.04 |
| 49 | VG | 2.37 | 2.83 | 3.14 | 32.5% | 11.0% | 98.36 |
| 50 | WCRX | 12.04 | 20.16 | 23.18 | 92.5% | 15.0% | 19.36 |
| Total | 11,656 | 13,902 | 16,055 | 39.5% | 15.5% |
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