JASD

Just Another Solid Day

I think I am starting to get slap happy. That is a sure sign of irrational exuberance. As my readers know, I have been watching the IPO space pretty closely since mid July. I have gotten into two through Fidelity, QEPM and SFXE. Frankly the number of shares I got in each one was hardly worth the brokerage I had to pay fidelity.  S today I tried a different tack. I felt the VJET IPO was going to be successful. It opened around $27, but quickly fell to around $22. I bought some shares at 22.09. Not a ton, kind of a half investment for me.  After watching it for an hour, I sold at 24.13 for a quick 9% profit. I felt pretty smart until I saw it move north of $28 this afternoon.  So it could have been a one day gain of 30% if I had had any courage.   Oh well.

Batting .900

But it was a very good week, up 3.2% overall.  And so I am now up over 4% for the month of August. CF, a stock in my mfi portfolio was up nicely on increasing their dividend by 150%. That means of my 20 MFI stock picks, 18 are beating the R3K. That is stunning to be batting .900. I have always felt that if you picked two winners for every loser you'd be doing well.

I did add a new stock to my idea list for the November MFI tranche that is fast approaching.  The symbol is AWRE and it looks very interesting.  Smaller cap stock, so don't all you bid it way up in the next three weeks!

GTAT was up to 8.63 today. I am not sure if I mentioned it, but it officially my all time most profitable stock in pure dollars and on a percentage basis.  I am pleased as often on the more speculative plays like GTAT, I hedge my initial position a bit, but this time I bought a full sized position.  There was a pretty good pro GTAT article today (Why GT Advanced Technologies Shares Could Triple By 2015). It felt a little too much like "she's going to the moon", but it does give a feel for some of the catalysts. I have always said $9 was a good target for the stock. I would not change that unless I saw a real uptick in backlog for them.

Once or twice a year I fund my kid's college funds. Each time I pick two or three stocks and they have to be stocks I am comfortable with for the next five years (at least).  Thus far my results have been very very good.

2009: ACE, CB and VR - up in aggregate by 179%
2010:  same three stocks - up 95%
2011: same three stocks - up 58%
2012: GNW and LNC - up 121%
2012(b): GNW and VR - up 89%
2013: GNW and LNC - up 67%

I am thrilled that the results have been so good.  It will certainly go a long ways towards funding their college 100% and if they have a little left over at the end, it can help them towards 1st car or home.  I am thinking about one final funding here in 2013.  I am wrestling with what stocks to pick.  I am leaning towards RIG and IBM, but I would like to jump in post a correction, so I may change my mind as prices change.

MFI Index

Here is a quick look at how the 50 stocks in my MFI index are doing for 2013 and since September 30th:

Index	Stock	Start	Last Month	Current	YTD Change	Monthly Change	Shares
1	APOL	20.92	20.81	21.12	1.0%	1.5%	11.14
2	AGX	18.00	21.97	21.58	19.9%	-1.8%	12.95
3	BAH	13.92	19.61	19.89	42.9%	1.4%	16.75
4	CA	21.98	30.42	30.85	40.4%	1.4%	10.61
5	CPLA	28.23	56.56	58.16	106.0%	2.8%	8.26
6	CF	203.16	211.43	215.76	6.2%	2.0%	1.15
7	CSCO	19.65	23.77	23.47	19.4%	-1.3%	11.86
8	DELL	10.14	13.91	13.99	38.0%	0.6%	22.99
9	DLX	32.24	42.41	47.14	46.2%	11.2%	7.23
10	DMRC	20.70	20.53	21.06	1.7%	2.6%	11.26
11	DLB	29.33	34.51	35.32	20.4%	2.3%	7.95
12	GME	25.09	50.48	54.71	118.0%	8.4%	9.29
13	GNI	67.20	74.25	74.75	11.2%	0.7%	3.47
14	GTAT	3.03	8.51	8.63	184.8%	1.4%	76.93
15	HLF	32.94	70.67	66.15	100.8%	-6.4%	7.08
16	HFC	46.55	43.71	46.52	-0.1%	6.4%	5.01
17	IDCC	41.09	37.64	36.72	-10.6%	-2.4%	5.67
18	INTX	9.48	9.37	9.41	-0.7%	0.4%	24.59
19	ESI	17.31	31.00	33.52	93.6%	8.1%	13.47
20	JCOM	30.60	50.23	55.26	80.6%	10.0%	7.62
21	KLIC	11.99	11.55	13.02	8.6%	12.7%	19.44
22	LPS	24.62	33.57	33.72	37.0%	0.4%	9.47
23	MANT	25.94	29.39	29.63	14.2%	0.8%	8.99
24	MSFT	26.71	33.97	35.65	33.5%	4.9%	8.73
25	NATR	14.48	20.81	20.76	43.4%	-0.2%	16.10
26	NSU	4.28	3.24	3.50	-18.2%	8.0%	54.47
27	NTI	25.44	22.90	25.78	1.3%	12.6%	9.16
28	NUS	37.05	96.64	102.66	177.1%	6.2%	6.29
29	PDLI	7.04	8.27	8.45	20.0%	2.2%	33.11
30	PETS	11.10	16.75	17.33	56.1%	3.5%	21.00
31	PBI	10.64	18.94	20.65	94.1%	9.0%	21.91
32	POOSF	1.42	-	-	-100.0%	0.0%	164.63
33	POZN	5.01	5.73	6.04	20.6%	5.4%	46.53
34	QCOR	26.72	58.75	66.55	149.1%	13.3%	8.72
35	RTN	57.56	78.17	78.51	36.4%	0.4%	4.05
36	RPXC	9.04	17.54	17.45	93.0%	-0.5%	25.79
37	SAI	11.32	17.27	17.73	56.6%	2.7%	20.59
38	STX	30.42	44.52	50.80	67.0%	14.1%	7.66
39	SVLC	2.52	1.77	1.85	-26.6%	4.5%	92.51
40	SAVE	17.73	34.27	43.05	142.8%	25.6%	13.15
41	STRA	56.17	41.52	41.47	-26.2%	-0.1%	4.15
42	TNAV	7.99	5.84	6.82	-14.6%	16.8%	29.18
43	TZOO	18.99	26.52	21.81	14.8%	-17.8%	12.28
44	UIS	17.30	25.19	25.81	49.2%	2.5%	13.47
45	USMO	11.68	14.54	15.37	31.5%	5.7%	19.96
46	USNA	32.93	86.79	87.96	167.1%	1.3%	7.08
47	EGY	8.65	5.58	5.85	-32.4%	4.8%	26.95
48	VCI	25.78	29.50	31.84	23.5%	7.9%	9.04
49	VG	2.37	3.14	3.64	53.6%	15.9%	98.36
50	WCRX	12.04	23.18	23.18	92.5%	0.0%	19.36
	Total	11,656	16,055	16,749	43.7%	4.3%