Weekend Update + Off To Switzerland

Weekend Update

I hope everyone had a Happy Valentine's Day!  We actually had a great one.  We went and saw Alton Brown in the Edible Invincible Tour.  Our two kids are big fans of his, so for their Christmas present we bought the tickets along with VIP passes that allowed us to meet him and take a picture with him before the show. Seems like a very nice guy and the kids were SO excited! The show was silly, but a lot of fun.

Tonight I am off to Switzerland.  Mostly work, but I will get to have a little fun as well.  Six hour time difference will cause some of my postings to be a bit off. But I am taking my trusty Lenovo laptop (X220).

Past Week

This past week was phenomenal.  My portfolio was up all 5 days, and rose a total of 3%. That gives me a 7 day winning streak and up 7.5% (recall at the end of last week I had best day in 18 months).  I was a bit more active in the transaction front in the past week.

On Monday I bought IEV and MUSA.  Then on Wednesday I bought AGII and sold them for a 2% gain the following day.  On Thursday I sold CSCO and I re-bought FGL. Finally on Friday I increased MUSA position by 33%. Oh, of course I sold 1/3 of my GTAT on Monday as well!

So despite a shaky start to the year, the stocks I have bought so far in 2014 are up $14,000 (with my multiplier). The biggest $ winners have been ATVI and RIOM. SIRI and C have been the laggards. On a percentage basis, this week vaulted me into the green for the year.  I am now up 2.75% (the R3K is essentially flat).

Malibu Barbie

One item that was discussed a bit on Ed's Talking Stock this week was the volatility about some of bio-tech names that people have been trading.  One of them crashed a bunch this week (NNVC) and one poster asked if "Ed had learned his lesson"? People got defensive and commented that overall these trades have made money, and that is certainly an important metric.  But I think the more important point is to always make sure you understand the difference between investing and speculation.  These bio tech stocks (NNVC and PVCT are the recent names) are 100% speculative.  There is nothing wrong with that, but you need to have eyes wide open that there is substantial risk that you could lose money.  I do occasionally speculate a bit myself.  VJET and SCAI were overt speculative plays. MBUU (Malibu Boats) is aso well (albeit to a lesser degree). For something to be an investment (in my mind), it has to have a positive cash flow.  Generating income.  Otherwise you are just speculating, hoping, that either someday the stock (business) will start making money or that you can find someone else willing to speculate in the stock at a higher price point.  Note that you can also lose substantial $ on investments, however if you do your research and create a Margin of Safety you can mitigate that risk substantially.

MFI Investments

Still trucking along very nicely. I am thrilled that my February 1st tranche is off to a strong start (already up 6%).  Here are tables of my 4 open tranches:

5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$11.58	$0.00	1.6%	16.7%
CYOU	$29.24	$27.16	$0.00	-7.1%	16.7%
RDA	$9.74	$18.17	$0.10	87.7%	16.7%
NVDA	$13.85	$17.91	$0.24	31.0%	16.7%
CF	$183.97	$231.65	$2.80	27.4%	16.7%
Totals				28.1%	16.7%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$231.65	$2.00	24.8%	12.3%
FLR	$66.06	$79.67	$0.32	21.1%	12.3%
AGX	$15.60	$27.94	$0.75	83.9%	12.3%
KLIC	$11.29	$11.58	$0.00	2.6%	12.3%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.44	$0.00	3.3%	12.3%
Totals				27.1%	12.3%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$17.09	$0.00	-0.8%	3.3%
ATVI	$17.71	$19.80	$0.00	11.8%	3.3%
GA	$9.04	$11.19	$0.23	26.4%	3.3%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.44	$0.00	-3.5%	3.3%
SYNA	$48.01	$62.30	$0.00	29.8%	3.3%
Totals				12.7%	3.3%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$19.80	$0.00	15.6%	3.3%
KLAC	$61.47	$65.28	$0.45	6.9%	3.3%
RPXC	$16.22	$16.44	$0.00	1.4%	3.3%
SNDK	$69.55	$74.59	$0.00	7.2%	3.3%
WNR	$39.11	$38.34	$0.26	-1.3%	3.3%
Totals				6.0%	3.3%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	27.1%	12.7%	6.0%	28.1%	18.8%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	31.4%
MFI Overall Gain	45.0%	62.0%	88.9%	28.1%	56.0%
Current Balance	36,248	40,511	47,220	32,029	156,009
R3K Current Tranche	12.3%	41.1%	3.3%	16.7%	18.4%
R3K Overall Gain	37.2%	41.1%	25.1%	16.7%	30.0%
R3K Balance	34,308	35,281	31,267	29,171	130,028
Annualized IRR	28.0%	47.0%	84.4%	37.3%	52.9%

Then I have created a new table that shows the progression of my MFI reboot, both on a relative basis to R3K and in dollar terms, assuming $25,000 start in each of 4 tranches:

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	25.75%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
Current	25.98%	156,009

So you can see that MFI is down a bit for me so far in 2014.  Hmm, since R3K is flat, I am not quite sure how I have expanded my lead. I will have to look at that a bit!  The NUS crash definitely hurt my 2014, though I was fortunate to sell at $116!

Dividend Portfolio

Selling CSCO is making this the incredible shrinking portfolio.  I will scour the earth looking for fresh ideas. I did kick around ETR yesterday (a stock I had mentioned on my Round Table write-up), but I am not feeling it right now.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	10,745	7.93	8.32	5,581.79	11.5%	19.4%	-7.9%
BBEP	4,713	16.16	20.79	4,962.84	35.2%	10.7%	24.5%
CSQ	6,718	8.60	11.13	10,996.89	48.4%	49.0%	-0.7%
INTC	3,754	22.25	24.76	5,335.45	17.6%	32.9%	-15.2%
NTC	6,629	12.00	12.02	377.85	0.6%	-0.1%	0.6%
O	585	20.46	41.72	8,810.32	177.5%	108.7%	68.8%
OIBAX	4,093	4.99	6.05	7,881.68	59.9%	114.4%	-54.5%
SBS	6,211	9.54	9.57	-	0.3%	9.4%	-9.1%
TC-PT	4,000	15.39	15.44	5,686.40	9.6%	16.8%	-7.2%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	10.61	1,317.50	5.1%	12.6%	-7.5%
Total Open				50,951	20.2%	23.3%	-3.1%
Closed					13.0%	10.8%	2.3%
Combined					14.0%	12.5%	1.5%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.3%
2014 Gain					0.5%

One stock I really like in here in the rarely mentioned TGONF. It is a good thing I like them as they are so ill liquid I may never be able to sell them!  But they have a yield right now a bit over 5%, they trade at $10.60.  But their book value is north of $16.  I have gone to their website and subscribed to a monthly report of their NAV.  I will show the report at the end of February here.

Discretionary Portfolio

Been relatively active here.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BAC-WTA	6,000	5.35	7.07	-	32.1%	17.3%	14.9%
C	1,500	51.52	49.52	-	-3.9%	0.8%	-4.7%
CS	1,800	28.75	31.45	-	9.4%	3.8%	5.6%
FGL	2,000	20.08	19.98	-	-0.5%	0.5%	-1.0%
GNW	7,000	6.82	15.56	-	128.2%	41.3%	86.9%
GTAT	14,000	3.39	11.67	-	244.2%	18.4%	225.8%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	25.82	-	21.6%	12.7%	8.9%
KLIC	5,500	11.46	11.58	-	1.0%	10.9%	-9.9%
MBUU	4,000	17.50	17.89	-	2.2%	3.3%	-1.0%
MUSA	2,000	39.06	39.74	-	1.7%	1.8%	0.0%
RIOM	15,000	2.26	2.48	-	9.7%	0.2%	9.5%
SIRI	15,000	3.73	3.56	-	-4.6%	1.4%	-6.0%
Total Open				-	31.8%	8.3%	23.4%
Closed					5.6%	2.1%	3.5%
Combined					13.6%	4.0%	9.6%

Hmm,  I will need to dig into this one a bit as well, as I am pretty darned sure I have (with my factor), 9,000 shares of GNW.  Hope everyone appreciates all the tables in my blogs do take some effort!

Have a great weekend everyone.  Looks like another winter storm is hitting New England late this afternoon.  I will surely post some more as I suspect I will be in an airport lounge, a bit bored this evening.