Wednesday, February 19, 2014

CF and FLR Report Earnings

Earnings Reports For CF and FLR

I admit it.  I actually enjoy investing and studying stocks.  And I enjoy reading earnings reports of securities I own.  It is kind of an intellectual puzzle, that has positive financial rewards if you do it well.

So two of my stocks reported earnings last night, CF and FLR. Regular readers will recall that I have bought CF in both my May and August MFI tranches.  I felt that we are still in agricultural boom times and that they really benefit from cheap natural gas (key to producing fertilizer).  Then I bought FLR (along with AGX) in my August tranche as a statement of faith in the rebounding of Construction.

CF appears to have had very good earnings (CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings).  the stock is trading up 4% or so after hours. If you read through the report, earnings were definitely down year over year. They comment on how they did relatively well in difficult market conditions. But they do say that things have improved significantly since November in pricing power.  Of course, natural gas prices have been much higher this first quarter due to polar vortex and such.  They also appear to be doing quite a bit of financial engineering. They sold a plant to Mosaic, they are borrowing $1.5b, they have increased the dividend and are actively buying back stock. They do plan to spend $2 billion in 2014 to expand capacity.  Wait, natural gas costs will not be as high as they have hedged 75% of need.  Good job! All-in-all, I am happy with CF. Both my tranches are up over 20% since I bought them, pretty hard to be disappointed with that.

FLR seems to have pretty much met expectations (Fluor Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Results).  They are only in one of my tranches, so this is a relatively small position for me. Their revenue was flat in 2013 over 2012.  It is interesting that they are growing energy and Oil & Gas segments, those are strong areas in US economy, so it is great that Fluor is a recognized expert.   The backlog to me is a little troubling, it stands at $34.9 billion, but was over $38 billion a year ago.  I guess if construction is making a rebound, I'd really like to see that number increasing. That being said, guidance for 2014 is $4.10 to $4.60 a share, versus $4.06 in 2013. So they do expect growth.  I like FLR, they are up a very nice 22% for me since August (almost exactly equal CF).  I do wonder if upside is limited, unless they get some big project wins.

A Look At Pharmaceuticals

I noticed yesterday that ACT made a bid for FRX (making Carl Icahn very happy).  FRX used to be an MFI stock.  While I have never really focused on MFI results by industry (outside of some commentary on for profit education and home healthcare providers); I thought I might look at some traditional Pharmas that have been on the lists over the years.  My recollection is that they have done pretty darn tooting well.

Looking at the stocks, they are up on average 24%, which is very good.  So that would suggest any pharmas on the list are worthy of a look.  That being said, I excluded pharmas on the list that I felt were there due to a one time royalty check opposed to a steady income stream.  Also, I only picked stocks I recognized as pharmas, so I could have been mistaken and missed some.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
6/28/2013 ABT              34.40           38.93 13.2%
5/24/2013 ABT              37.24           38.93 4.5%

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
12/28/2007 ASPV              25.98           26.00 0%
11/28/2007 ASPV              25.75           26.00 1%
9/27/2007 ASPV              20.80           26.00 25%
8/30/2007 ASPV              18.97           26.00 37%
7/30/2007 ASPV              17.59           26.00 48%
7/3/2007 ASPV              17.58           26.00 48%
4/27/2007 ASPV              22.71           26.00 14%
3/26/2007 ASPV              21.47           26.00 21%
1/26/2007 ASPV              19.89           26.00 31%
11/29/2006 ASPV              19.70           25.76 31%
10/27/2006 ASPV              18.99           25.55 35%
9/28/2006 ASPV              27.72           20.80 -25%
8/31/2006 ASPV              24.95           19.02 -24%
7/31/2006 ASPV              24.09           17.59 -27%
Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
12/28/2006 BRL              50.58           53.31 5%
11/29/2006 BRL              50.21           54.65 9%
I did own them.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
12/26/2008 BVF                8.31           13.96 68%
11/26/2008 BVF                7.60           14.14 86%
10/31/2008 BVF                7.84           13.46 72%
9/26/2008 BVF                9.44           14.77 56%
8/29/2008 BVF                9.83           12.77 30%
7/29/2008 BVF                9.18           13.81 50%
7/2/2008 BVF                8.88           13.45 51%
4/25/2008 BVF                9.66           11.50 19%
2/26/2008 BVF              12.14           10.79 -11%
1/25/2008 BVF              10.97           10.69 -3%
12/28/2007 BVF              12.12             8.73 -28%
11/28/2007 BVF              13.51             8.33 -38%
11/2/2007 BVF              17.03             8.60 -50%
9/27/2007 BVF              15.32           10.35 -32%
8/30/2007 BVF              15.86           10.70 -33%
7/30/2007 BVF              17.14           10.37 -39%
7/3/2007 BVF              22.78           10.03 -56%
2/27/2007 BVF              18.67           13.97 -25%
1/26/2007 BVF              19.23           12.62 -34%
12/28/2006 BVF              19.76           13.30 -33%
10/27/2006 BVF              14.88           19.53 31%
9/28/2006 BVF              14.84           17.26 16%
8/31/2006 BVF              15.35           17.44 14%
7/31/2006 BVF              21.17           19.06 -10%
6/30/2006 BVF              22.33           24.97 12%
5/31/2006 BVF              23.43           24.21 3%
5/12/2006 BVF              26.22           24.67 -6%
This stock exploded later and is part of VRX now.

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
7/29/2013 ENDP              37.91           75.82 100%
5/24/2013 ENDP              33.88           75.82 124%
3/28/2013 ENDP              30.76           75.82 146%
7/29/2010 ENDP              23.92           36.59 53%
6/29/2010 ENDP              22.10           38.63 75%
5/28/2010 ENDP              20.94           41.52 98%
4/23/2010 ENDP              22.96           38.88 69%
3/25/2010 ENDP              23.38           35.34 51%
1/22/2010 ENDP              20.22           33.53 66%
12/31/2009 ENDP              20.52           36.04 76%
11/27/2009 ENDP              22.60           35.35 56%
9/25/2009 ENDP              22.14           30.53 38%
8/28/2009 ENDP              22.74           28.69 26%
6/29/2009 ENDP              18.38           22.37 22%
5/29/2009 ENDP              15.93           20.94 31%
4/24/2009 ENDP              17.83           22.96 29%
3/27/2009 ENDP              17.34           23.39 35%
4/25/2008 ENDP              24.80           17.83 -28%
3/24/2008 ENDP              23.46           17.90 -24%
4/27/2007 ENDP              31.40           24.80 -21%
3/29/2006 ENDP              32.40           29.24 -10%
2/17/2006 ENDP              29.80           30.71 3%
I owned for a stretch.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
8/24/2012 FRX              34.68           42.53 23%
6/22/2012 FRX              34.09           41.00 20%
3/23/2012 FRX              34.16           38.04 11%
2/24/2012 FRX              32.29           36.67 14%
12/29/2011 FRX              30.28           35.32 17%
11/25/2011 FRX              28.63           33.32 16%
9/30/2011 FRX              30.79           35.61 16%
8/26/2011 FRX              33.31           34.68 4%
6/24/2011 FRX              39.33           33.41 -15%
3/24/2011 FRX              31.31           34.16 9%
2/25/2011 FRX              31.88           32.29 1%
1/3/2011 FRX              31.85           30.28 -5%
11/26/2010 FRX              31.85           29.15 -8%
9/24/2010 FRX              31.35           30.79 -2%
9/2/2010 FRX              29.19           33.31 14%
6/29/2010 FRX              27.68           39.33 42%
5/28/2010 FRX              25.88           35.78 38%
3/25/2010 FRX              31.22           31.31 0%
2/26/2010 FRX              29.88           31.88 7%
12/31/2009 FRX              32.11           31.85 -1%
11/27/2009 FRX              30.56           31.85 4%
9/25/2009 FRX              28.51           31.35 10%
8/28/2009 FRX              29.11           29.56 2%
6/29/2009 FRX              25.15           27.91 11%
3/27/2009 FRX              21.75           31.08 43%
2/27/2009 FRX              21.44           29.88 39%
12/26/2008 FRX              24.62           32.11 30%
11/26/2008 FRX              23.07           30.56 32%
9/26/2008 FRX              28.44           28.51 0%
8/29/2008 FRX              35.69           29.11 -18%
12/28/2007 FRX              37.16           24.62 -34%
11/28/2007 FRX              37.88           23.07 -39%
9/27/2007 FRX              37.46           28.44 -24%
8/30/2007 FRX              37.59           35.71 -5%
I owned for a bit. Now at $96.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
1/23/2009 KG                8.91           12.33 38%
12/26/2008 KG              10.06           12.27 22%
11/26/2008 KG                9.43           11.95 27%
10/31/2008 KG                8.79           10.13 15%
9/26/2008 KG                9.76           10.45 7%
8/29/2008 KG              11.44           10.41 -9%
7/29/2008 KG              11.25             9.33 -17%
7/2/2008 KG              10.71             9.63 -10%
5/28/2008 KG              10.21             9.46 -7%
4/25/2008 KG                9.17             8.14 -11%
3/24/2008 KG                9.09             7.05 -22%
2/26/2008 KG              11.03             6.13 -44%
1/25/2008 KG                9.98             8.91 -11%
12/28/2007 KG              10.28           10.06 -2%
1/6/2006 KG              17.95           16.20 -10%
11/28/2007 KG              10.01             9.43 -6%
11/2/2007 KG              10.24             8.79 -14%
9/27/2007 KG              11.81             9.76 -17%
8/30/2007 KG              14.97           11.46 -23%
7/30/2007 KG              17.02           11.25 -34%
7/3/2007 KG              20.82           10.71 -49%
5/29/2007 KG              21.49           10.21 -52%
4/27/2007 KG              20.80             9.17 -56%
3/26/2007 KG              19.67             8.91 -55%
2/27/2007 KG              17.91           11.03 -38%
1/26/2007 KG              17.74             9.98 -44%
12/28/2006 KG              16.10           10.21 -37%
11/29/2006 KG              16.40             9.96 -39%
10/27/2006 KG              16.66           10.13 -39%
9/28/2006 KG              16.86           11.81 -30%
8/31/2006 KG              16.22           15.61 -4%
7/31/2006 KG              17.02           17.02 0%
6/30/2006 KG              17.00           20.50 21%
5/31/2006 KG              17.78           21.44 21%
5/12/2006 KG              18.15           20.30 12%
4/7/2006 KG              17.58           19.99 14%
2/17/2006 KG              19.22           18.65 -3%
I owned King, they were up and down, "King" of one time (many times) expenses.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
1/31/2014 PDLI                9.10             8.63 -5%
12/31/2013 PDLI                8.44             8.63 2%
11/29/2013 PDLI                9.62             8.63 -10%
10/25/2013 PDLI                8.29             8.63 4%
9/27/2013 PDLI                8.12             8.63 6%
8/30/2013 PDLI                7.67             8.63 13%
7/29/2013 PDLI                7.88             8.63 10%
6/28/2013 PDLI                7.46             8.63 16%
5/24/2013 PDLI                7.94             8.63 9%
4/26/2013 PDLI                7.31             8.63 18%
3/28/2013 PDLI                6.93             8.63 25%
2/22/2013 PDLI                6.53             8.63 32%
1/25/2013 PDLI                6.23             9.10 46%
12/31/2012 PDLI                6.54             8.44 29%
11/23/2012 PDLI                7.03             9.77 39%
10/26/2012 PDLI                7.46             8.36 12%
9/28/2012 PDLI                7.12             8.24 16%
8/24/2012 PDLI                6.74             7.94 18%
7/27/2012 PDLI                6.29             8.15 30%
6/22/2012 PDLI                5.99             7.72 29%
5/25/2012 PDLI                5.95             8.37 41%
4/27/2012 PDLI                5.72             7.70 35%
3/23/2012 PDLI                5.82             7.30 25%
2/24/2012 PDLI                5.91             7.03 19%
1/27/2012 PDLI                5.87             6.71 14%
12/29/2011 PDLI                5.65             7.04 25%
11/25/2011 PDLI                5.51             7.60 38%
10/28/2011 PDLI                5.61             8.07 44%
9/30/2011 PDLI                5.07             7.70 52%
8/26/2011 PDLI                5.22             7.30 40%
6/24/2011 PDLI                5.22             6.47 24%
5/27/2011 PDLI                5.97             6.48 9%
4/21/2011 PDLI                5.70             6.40 12%
3/24/2011 PDLI                5.11             6.34 24%
2/25/2011 PDLI                4.40             6.45 47%
1/28/2011 PDLI                4.46             6.40 43%
1/3/2011 PDLI                5.76             6.16 7%
11/26/2010 PDLI                5.35             6.19 16%
10/29/2010 PDLI                4.84             6.15 27%
9/24/2010 PDLI                4.76             5.55 17%
9/2/2010 PDLI                4.52             5.75 27%
6/29/2010 PDLI                4.51             5.75 27%
5/28/2010 PDLI                4.28             6.58 54%
4/23/2010 PDLI                5.71             6.28 10%
3/25/2010 PDLI                5.70             5.63 -1%
2/26/2010 PDLI                5.95             4.86 -18%
1/22/2010 PDLI                5.10             4.93 -3%
12/31/2009 PDLI                5.33             6.36 19%
11/27/2009 PDLI                5.14             5.77 12%
I owned for a short stretch. Read something negative and sold way too early.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
9/25/2009 PFE              15.75           17.40 10%
8/28/2009 PFE              16.14           16.46 2%
6/29/2009 PFE              14.67           14.47 -1%
5/29/2009 PFE              14.60           15.23 4%
4/24/2009 PFE              12.65           16.91 34%
Hard to believe you could have bought Pfizer under $13 in 2009. Now $32 plus a buck of dividends each year.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
1/31/2014 QCOR              67.01           75.83 13%
12/31/2013 QCOR              54.15           75.83 40%
11/29/2013 QCOR              57.69           75.83 31%
9/27/2013 QCOR              56.33           75.83 35%
7/29/2013 QCOR              50.51           75.83 50%
6/28/2013 QCOR              44.75           75.83 69%
5/24/2013 QCOR              34.33           75.83 121%
4/26/2013 QCOR              28.84           75.83 163%
3/28/2013 QCOR              31.76           75.83 139%
2/22/2013 QCOR              30.16           75.83 151%
1/25/2013 QCOR              25.34           67.01 164%
12/31/2012 QCOR              26.23           54.45 108%
11/23/2012 QCOR              25.72           58.01 126%
10/26/2012 QCOR              25.31           68.56 171%
9/28/2012 QCOR              17.94           56.90 217%
2/26/2010 QCOR                4.68           12.61 169%
1/22/2010 QCOR                5.01           15.64 212%
12/31/2009 QCOR                4.75           14.66 209%
11/27/2009 QCOR                4.28           14.73 244%
10/30/2009 QCOR                4.54           12.28 170%
9/25/2009 QCOR                5.36           10.11 89%
8/28/2009 QCOR                5.69             9.84 73%
6/29/2009 QCOR                4.96           10.55 113%
5/29/2009 QCOR                4.26             9.47 122%
4/24/2009 QCOR                4.55             8.21 80%
3/27/2009 QCOR                4.70             7.85 67%
2/27/2009 QCOR                4.86             4.68 -4%
8/29/2008 QCOR                5.46             5.69 4%
7/29/2008 QCOR                5.01             5.92 18%
5/28/2008 QCOR                5.22             4.26 -18%
One of my worst sells ever. I bought them when they had huge sell off in September 2012. I got them under $20, and it was a large share count.  I sold around $23, happy with a quick profit and a little worried about SEC. I left A LOT of money on table.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
9/27/2013 UTHR              78.72         102.91 31%
8/30/2013 UTHR              70.91         102.91 45%
7/29/2013 UTHR              72.63         102.91 42%
6/28/2013 UTHR              65.82         102.91 56%
5/25/2012 UTHR              44.05           66.35 51%
4/27/2012 UTHR              44.96           62.20 38%
I must have looked at this stock 20 times. Never pulled trigger.

Date Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
7/27/2012 VPHM              23.49           34.96 49%
6/22/2012 VPHM              23.16           28.65 24%
5/25/2012 VPHM              20.12           27.04 34%
3/23/2012 VPHM              30.00           25.16 -16%
2/24/2012 VPHM              31.74           25.25 -20%
1/27/2012 VPHM              29.85           27.28 -9%
12/29/2011 VPHM              27.93           22.76 -19%
11/25/2011 VPHM              21.95           23.86 9%
10/28/2011 VPHM              20.60           26.05 26%
9/30/2011 VPHM              18.07           30.19 67%
8/26/2011 VPHM              18.66           26.85 44%
7/29/2011 VPHM              18.08           23.49 30%
6/24/2011 VPHM              17.71           23.06 30%
5/27/2011 VPHM              18.86           20.12 7%
4/21/2011 VPHM              19.72           20.27 3%
3/24/2011 VPHM              19.27           30.00 56%
1/28/2011 VPHM              16.50           29.85 81%
1/3/2011 VPHM              17.81           27.93 57%
11/26/2010 VPHM              16.40           23.00 40%
10/29/2010 VPHM              16.36           20.60 26%
9/24/2010 VPHM              15.13           18.07 19%
9/2/2010 VPHM              13.09           18.66 43%
6/29/2010 VPHM              11.11           17.71 59%
5/28/2010 VPHM              12.17           18.86 55%
4/24/2009 VPHM                4.95           14.00 183%
3/27/2009 VPHM                4.84           14.11 192%
1/23/2009 VPHM              12.37           10.32 -17%
12/26/2008 VPHM              13.00             8.39 -35%
11/26/2008 VPHM              11.47             7.51 -35%
9/26/2008 VPHM              13.72             8.95 -35%
8/29/2008 VPHM              14.65             8.12 -45%
7/29/2008 VPHM              11.05             6.90 -38%
7/2/2008 VPHM              11.43             5.93 -48%
5/28/2008 VPHM                9.10             6.95 -24%
4/25/2008 VPHM                9.46             4.95 -48%
2/26/2008 VPHM                9.23             4.08 -56%
1/25/2008 VPHM                8.83           12.37 40%
12/28/2007 VPHM                8.38           13.00 55%
11/28/2007 VPHM                8.36           11.47 37%
11/2/2007 VPHM                7.94           12.54 58%
9/27/2007 VPHM                9.06           13.72 51%
8/30/2007 VPHM                9.74           14.65 50%
7/30/2007 VPHM              12.76           11.05 -13%
7/3/2007 VPHM              14.37           11.43 -20%
4/27/2007 VPHM              15.41             9.46 -39%
3/26/2007 VPHM              14.06             9.03 -36%
2/27/2007 VPHM              16.47             9.23 -44%
1/26/2007 VPHM              16.07             8.83 -45%
12/28/2006 VPHM              14.67             8.20 -44%
11/29/2006 VPHM              14.60             8.35 -43%
10/27/2006 VPHM              13.15             9.43 -28%
9/28/2006 VPHM              12.41             9.06 -27%
8/31/2006 VPHM              12.51             9.94 -21%
7/31/2006 VPHM                7.78           12.76 64%
6/30/2006 VPHM                8.62           13.85 61%
5/31/2006 VPHM                9.73           14.74 51%
5/12/2006 VPHM                9.54           15.85 66%
4/7/2006 VPHM              11.83           14.40 22%
On the lists forever.  Had some very good times and some not so good times.  I did own and did pretty well once.   They were recently bought out at $50.

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
4/26/2013 WCRX 13.58 22.93 69%
3/28/2013 WCRX 13.38 22.93 71%
2/22/2013 WCRX 13.78 22.93 66%
1/25/2013 WCRX 13.55 22.93 69%
12/31/2012 WCRX 11.89 22.93 93%
11/23/2012 WCRX 11.55 22.93 99%
10/26/2012 WCRX 11.36 22.93 102%
9/28/2012 WCRX 13.04 23.11 77%
I have no idea why I never bought them. So so cheap. Made my dividend screens. Obvious buy in hindsight.
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