Weekend Update : Après-ski

Weekend Update: Après-ski

Well, I have limped down to my kitchen at home and put on a fresh pot of coffee. It is good to be home.  I had two transactions during the past week.  On Monday I began the re-building of my dividend portfolio with a pretty sizable slug in FSC.  Then yesterday, I sold MUSA based upon reading their earnings report (Murphy USA Inc. Reports Fourth Quarter 2013 and Full Year 2013 Results).  The MUSA results were not "bad", but when I read through everything, more of their income came from discontinued operations than I realized and they were also making money from Renewable Energy Credits, which I believe may be phased out. The underlying gas station business did not look very attractive.  So I basically broke even on MUSA.

On the week, I was up 42 basis points and am now up 3.2% for the year.  Not "fantastic", but decent considering broader market is just barely above break-even.

MFI Update

My stocks in my MFI portfolio continue to out perform.  I really had some excellent earnings reports this week:

1. FLR (Fluor Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Results)
2. CF (Why CF Industries (CF) Is Gaining Today)
3. AVG (Why AVG Technologies NV Shares Popped)

So overall, since I re-booted MFI in August 2012, if you assume I put $25,000 in each of the 4 tranches of 5 stocks, I am sitting north of $157,000! On an annualized IRR basis, that is about 53.4%. Better than a sharp stick in the eye.  The same money placed into 4 tranches of R3K would be worth $130,000.

5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$11.55	$0.00	1.3%	16.9%
CYOU	$29.24	$28.87	$0.00	-1.3%	16.9%
RDA	$9.74	$18.04	$0.10	86.3%	16.9%
NVDA	$13.85	$18.64	$0.24	36.3%	16.9%
CF	$183.97	$242.97	$2.80	33.6%	16.9%
Totals				31.3%	16.9%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$242.97	$2.00	30.8%	12.5%
FLR	$66.06	$79.19	$0.32	20.4%	12.5%
AGX	$15.60	$28.20	$0.75	85.6%	12.5%
KLIC	$11.29	$11.55	$0.00	2.3%	12.5%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.10	$0.00	1.1%	12.5%
Totals				28.0%	12.5%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$18.46	$0.00	7.2%	3.4%
ATVI	$17.71	$19.72	$0.00	11.3%	3.4%
GA	$9.04	$11.38	$0.23	28.5%	3.4%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.10	$0.00	-5.5%	3.4%
SYNA	$48.01	$62.27	$0.00	29.7%	3.4%
Totals				14.2%	3.4%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$19.72	$0.00	15.1%	3.4%
KLAC	$61.47	$64.97	$0.45	6.4%	3.4%
RPXC	$16.22	$16.10	$0.00	-0.7%	3.4%
SNDK	$69.55	$74.80	$0.00	7.5%	3.4%
WNR	$39.11	$38.98	$0.26	0.3%	3.4%
Totals				5.7%	3.4%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	28.0%	14.2%	5.7%	31.3%	20.1%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	31.1%
MFI Overall Gain	46.0%	64.2%	88.5%	31.3%	57.5%
Current Balance	36,509	41,054	47,120	32,813	157,496
R3K Current Tranche	12.5%	41.3%	3.4%	16.9%	18.5%
R3K Overall Gain	37.4%	41.3%	25.2%	16.9%	30.2%
R3K Balance	34,357	35,332	31,312	29,213	130,215
Annualized IRR	28.2%	47.7%	82.0%	40.4%	53.4%

Discretionary Picks

Lately this portfolio has moved as GTAT moves as it is my largest holding and a mite volatile. It started the week at $11.67. Shot to $12.64. But then pulled back to end the week at $12.11. They actually announce earnings on Monday.  Not sure what they will announce as numbers, as I suspect it was a poor quarter.  But it will be interesting if they give additional color on the future.  There is a LOT of speculation out there.

FGL, RIOM and MBUU all had pretty decent weeks as well, to give this portfolio some juice. C has been the laggard.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BAC-WTA	6,000	5.35	7.11	-	32.8%	17.4%	15.4%
C	1,500	51.52	48.26	-	-6.3%	0.9%	-7.3%
CS	1,800	28.75	31.47	-	9.5%	4.0%	5.5%
FGL	2,000	20.08	20.41	-	1.6%	0.6%	1.0%
GNW	9,000	7.10	15.21	-	114.1%	38.0%	76.0%
GTAT	14,000	3.39	12.11	-	257.2%	18.6%	238.7%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	25.47	-	19.9%	12.9%	7.0%
KLIC	5,500	11.46	11.55	-	0.8%	11.1%	-10.3%
MBUU	4,000	17.50	18.35	-	4.9%	3.4%	1.4%
RIOM	15,000	2.26	2.40	-	6.2%	0.3%	5.9%
SIRI	15,000	3.73	3.61	-	-3.2%	1.5%	-4.7%
Total Open				-	38.1%	9.9%	28.2%
Closed					5.0%	2.3%	2.7%
Combined					13.9%	4.3%	9.6%

Dividend Portfolio

While this portfolio continues to "under perform" (which may not be totally fair as it has some bond components and I compare to the R3K), it also continues to do exactly what I want it to do - produce an increasing stream of income.

In addition, this portfolio is up on the year (0.6%), so at least directionally correct.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	10,745	7.93	8.27	6,188.89	11.6%	19.6%	-8.0%
BBEP	4,713	16.16	21.08	4,962.84	37.0%	10.9%	26.1%
CSQ	6,718	8.60	10.99	10,996.89	46.7%	49.3%	-2.5%
FSC	4,646	9.64	9.71	-	0.7%	-0.1%	0.9%
INTC	3,754	22.25	24.42	5,335.45	16.1%	33.1%	-16.9%
NTC	6,629	12.00	12.04	377.85	0.8%	0.1%	0.7%
O	585	20.46	43.41	8,810.32	185.8%	109.0%	76.7%
OIBAX	4,093	4.99	6.05	7,881.68	59.9%	114.7%	-54.8%
SBS	6,211	9.54	9.38	-	-1.7%	9.5%	-11.2%
TC-PT	4,000	15.39	15.82	5,686.40	12.1%	17.0%	-4.9%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	10.61	1,317.50	5.1%	12.8%	-7.7%
Total Open				51,558	19.0%	21.9%	-2.9%
Closed					13.0%	10.8%	2.3%
Combined					13.9%	12.4%	1.5%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.3%
2014 Gain					0.6%

Finally, I will comment that the MFI Index had a pretty decent week. It was up an extremely impressive 2.8%, helped by STRA (up 37% on Friday), UNTD and MYGN.

Index	Stock	Start	Last Week	Current	YTD Change	Weekly Change	Shares
1	ATVI	17.83	19.80	19.72	10.6%	-0.4%	13.07
2	MO	38.39	35.57	35.37	-7.9%	-0.6%	6.07
3	APOL	27.32	32.15	34.31	25.6%	6.7%	8.53
4	AAPL	561.02	547.04	528.30	-5.8%	-3.4%	0.42
5	AGX	27.56	27.94	28.20	2.3%	0.9%	8.46
6	BAH	19.15	19.26	20.62	7.7%	7.1%	12.17
7	BKE	52.56	43.83	43.46	-17.3%	-0.8%	4.44
8	CA	33.65	32.99	32.42	-3.7%	-1.7%	6.93
9	CACI	73.22	72.91	75.40	3.0%	3.4%	3.18
10	CHE	76.62	76.88	82.70	7.9%	7.6%	3.04
11	CRUS	20.43	18.18	18.11	-11.3%	-0.4%	11.41
12	CSCO	22.43	22.73	22.30	-0.6%	-1.9%	10.39
13	COH	56.13	48.08	47.65	-15.1%	-0.9%	4.15
14	CRTX	9.49	9.50	9.50	0.1%	0.0%	24.56
15	DLX	52.19	46.44	48.37	-7.3%	4.2%	4.47
16	DHX	7.25	7.01	7.16	-1.2%	2.1%	32.15
17	EBIX	14.71	14.72	16.10	9.4%	9.4%	15.85
18	EGL	33.40	40.65	40.90	22.5%	0.6%	6.98
19	GME	49.26	35.61	35.56	-27.8%	-0.1%	4.73
20	GTIV	12.41	11.01	10.63	-14.3%	-3.5%	18.78
21	GNI	68.10	20.68	20.95	-69.2%	1.3%	3.42
22	HLF	78.70	66.39	66.72	-15.2%	0.5%	2.96
23	IQNT	11.41	11.46	12.08	5.9%	5.4%	20.43
24	ESI	33.58	31.11	34.31	2.2%	10.3%	6.94
25	LPS	37.38	37.30	37.30	-0.2%	0.0%	6.24
26	LQDT	22.66	24.57	24.95	10.1%	1.5%	10.29
27	LO	50.68	48.00	48.05	-5.2%	0.1%	4.60
28	MSFT	37.41	37.62	37.98	1.5%	1.0%	6.23
29	MYGN	20.98	31.44	37.36	78.1%	18.8%	11.11
30	NATR	17.32	15.33	15.67	-9.5%	2.2%	13.46
31	NOC	114.61	120.28	120.47	5.1%	0.2%	2.03
32	PDLI	8.44	8.43	8.68	2.8%	0.0%	27.62
33	PFMT	10.30	8.02	7.31	-29.0%	-8.9%	22.63
34	PETS	16.63	13.76	13.57	-18.4%	-1.4%	14.02
35	PRSC	25.72	26.72	26.56	3.3%	-0.6%	9.06
36	QCOR	54.45	69.58	76.81	41.1%	10.4%	4.28
37	RTN	90.70	95.93	96.60	6.5%	0.7%	2.57
38	RAI	49.99	48.21	48.62	-2.7%	0.9%	4.66
39	RPXC	16.90	16.44	16.10	-4.7%	-2.1%	13.79
40	SAIC	33.07	37.25	37.60	13.7%	0.9%	7.05
41	SWHC	13.49	12.64	12.52	-7.2%	-0.9%	17.28
42	STRA	34.47	34.40	47.17	36.8%	37.1%	6.76
43	RGR	73.09	73.44	68.32	-6.5%	-7.0%	3.19
44	UIS	33.57	32.36	33.34	-0.7%	3.0%	6.94
45	UNTD	13.76	10.58	12.55	-8.8%	18.6%	16.94
46	USMO	14.28	13.95	14.52	1.7%	4.1%	16.32
47	USNA	75.58	75.59	75.56	0.0%	0.0%	3.08
48	VCI	34.25	34.02	34.02	-0.7%	0.0%	6.81
49	VGR	16.37	18.80	18.95	15.8%	0.8%	14.24
50	WTW	32.93	22.10	21.90	-33.5%	-0.9%	7.08
	Total	17,682	17,158	17,645	-0.2%	2.8%