Saturday, February 08, 2014

MFI Index, Mini Contest & Current Holdings

Schloss Rules
Just got done raking my roof.  Not sure if that is done everywhere, but after a heavy snow (we had a foot on Wednesday), it is recommended that you rake some snow off your roof.  Not the most fun thing to do when it is 15 degrees outside and a Saturday.

I thought I would include several lists that I maintain as an update.

MFI Index YTD and February

Here is how the 50 stocks greater than $100m have fared since the start of the year.  As I have commented  elsewhere, the MFI approach has been stalling a bit of late and you can see it on this table:

Index Stock Start Last Month Current YTD Change       Monthly          Change     Shares
1   ATVI      17.83         17.13         19.64 10.2% 14.7%         13.07
2   MO      38.39         35.22         35.30 -8.0% 0.2%           6.07
3   APOL      27.32         32.29         33.18 21.4% 2.8%           8.53
4   AAPL    561.02      500.60       522.73 -6.8% 4.4%           0.42
5   AGX      27.56         28.41         27.56 0.0% -3.0%           8.46
6   BAH      19.15         18.28         18.44 -3.7% 0.9%         12.17
7   BKE      52.56         44.54         44.25 -15.8% -0.7%           4.44
8   CA      33.65         32.09         32.17 -4.4% 0.2%           6.93
9   CACI      73.22         74.02         71.96 -1.7% -2.8%           3.18
10   CHE      76.62         78.92         79.70 4.0% 1.0%           3.04
11   CRUS      20.43         17.51         18.02 -11.8% 2.9%         11.41
12   CSCO      22.43         22.08         22.84 1.8% 3.4%         10.39
13   COH      56.13         47.89         47.56 -15.3% -0.7%           4.15
14   CRTX         9.49           9.48            9.49 0.0% 0.1%         24.56
15   DLX      52.19         48.55         47.19 -9.6% -2.8%           4.47
16   DHX         7.25           7.00            6.71 -7.4% -4.1%         32.15
17   EBIX      14.71         13.58         14.12 -4.0% 4.0%         15.85
18   EGL      33.40         38.31         39.30 17.7% 2.6%           6.98
19   GME      49.26         35.07         35.50 -27.9% 1.2%           4.73
20   GTIV      12.41         11.36         10.71 -13.7% -5.7%         18.78
21   GNI      68.10         21.82         21.24 -68.8% -2.7%           3.42
22   HLF      78.70         64.37         67.37 -14.4% 4.7%           2.96
23   IQNT      11.41         11.60         11.03 -3.3% -4.9%         20.43
24   ESI      33.58         29.40         29.39 -12.5% 0.0%           6.94
25   LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%           6.24
26   LQDT      22.66         23.77         24.61 8.6% 3.5%         10.29
27   LO      50.68         49.22         49.52 -2.3% 0.6%           4.60
28   MSFT      37.41         37.84         36.56 -2.3% -3.4%           6.23
29   MYGN      20.98         27.63         32.23 53.6% 16.6%         11.11
30   NATR      17.32         16.27         15.16 -12.5% -6.8%         13.46
31   NOC    114.61      115.55       114.97 0.3% -0.5%           2.03
32   PDLI         8.44           9.10            8.39 -0.6% 0.0%         27.62
33   PFMT      10.30           8.53            7.76 -24.7% -9.0%         22.63
34   PETS      16.63         13.23         13.30 -20.0% 0.5%         14.02
35   PRSC      25.72         26.39         25.52 -0.8% -3.3%           9.06
36   QCOR      54.45         67.31         65.31 19.9% -3.0%           4.28
37   RTN      90.70         95.07         94.27 3.9% -0.8%           2.57
38   RAI      49.99         48.50         48.76 -2.5% 0.5%           4.66
39   RPXC      16.90         16.22         15.49 -8.3% -4.5%         13.79
40   SAIC      33.07         37.29         36.80 11.3% -1.3%           7.05
41   SWHC      13.49         13.09         12.52 -7.2% -4.4%         17.28
42   STRA      34.47         34.96         36.11 4.8% 3.3%           6.76
43   RGR      73.09         76.17         73.96 1.2% -2.9%           3.19
44   UIS      33.57         34.27         32.10 -4.4% -6.3%           6.94
45   UNTD      13.76         12.11            9.61 -30.2% -20.6%         16.94
46   USMO      14.28         14.26         13.88 -2.8% -2.7%         16.32
47   USNA      75.58         59.87         66.03 -12.6% 10.3%           3.08
48   VCI      34.25         34.00         34.02 -0.7% 0.1%           6.81
49   VGR      16.37         17.86         18.15 10.9% 1.6%         14.24
50   WTW      32.93         27.03         29.08 -11.7% 7.6%           7.08
Total    17,682      17,004       16,963 -4.1% -0.2%

So down 4.1% so far this year (R3K is off 2.5% and my MFI is down 3.2%).

Friendly Contests

Recall in mid December I made my own top ten list and then pulled in top ten lists from Barron's and a few others.  I also brought in Eric's list:

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
MFI Diary GNW          15.53            15.50                      -   -0.2%
GTAT             8.72            10.74                      -   23.2%
SBS          11.34               9.38                      -   -17.3%
HIMX          14.72            14.42                      -   -2.0%
HIG-WT          27.53            25.55                      -   -7.2%
KLIC          13.30            11.49                      -   -13.6%
CF        233.04          234.06                      -   0.4%
BAC-WTA             6.47               7.10                      -   9.7%
RPXC          16.90            15.49                      -   -8.3%
ATVI          17.83            19.64                      -   10.2%
Total -0.5%

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Barron's ABX          17.63            18.89                      -   7.1%
CNQ          33.10            34.27                      -   3.5%
DE          91.33            86.56                      -   -5.2%
GM          40.87            36.11                      -   -11.6%
INTC          25.96            24.21                      -   -6.8%
MET          53.92            49.11                      -   -8.9%
NSRGY          73.59            75.68                      -   2.8%
SPG        152.16          156.97                      -   3.2%
LCC          22.35            22.55                      -   0.9%
C          52.11            49.34                      -   -5.3%
Total -2.0%

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
ML/BAC ADM          43.40            39.89                      -   -8.1%
CAT          90.81            94.87                      -   4.5%
CTL          31.85            28.79                      -   -9.6%
C          52.11            49.34                      -   -5.3%
CSCO          22.43            22.67                  0.17 1.8%
DVA          63.37            63.62                      -   0.4%
XOM        101.20            90.58                      -   -10.5%
GM          40.87            36.11                      -   -11.6%
NEE          85.62            90.61                      -   5.8%
NUE          53.38            48.45                      -   -9.2%
Total -4.2%

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Cantor/Fitz AAPL        561.02          519.68                      -   -7.4%
JNPR          22.57            27.25                      -   20.7%
DLR          49.12            51.86                      -   5.6%
FB          54.65            64.32                      -   17.7%
GOOG    1,120.71      1,177.44                      -   5.1%
DATA          68.93            89.97                      -   30.5%
SPLK          68.67            79.88                      -   16.3%
SVU             7.29               5.80                      -   -20.4%
TMO        111.35          117.77                      -   5.8%
VSTM          11.40            13.69                      -   20.1%
Total 9.4%

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Eric Y CA          33.65            32.17                      -   -4.4%
CLCT          17.15            20.48                      -   19.4%
CSCO          22.43            22.67                  0.17 1.8%
LO          50.68            49.52                      -   -2.3%
MANT          29.93            28.43                      -   -5.0%
MSFT          37.41            36.56                      -   -2.3%
PETS          16.63            13.30                      -   -20.0%
RGR          73.09            73.96                      -   1.2%
USMO          14.28            13.88                      -   -2.8%
VCI          34.25            34.02                      -   -0.7%
Total -1.5%

So after a month+ I am holding my own against pretty much everybody.

Current Holdings

In case people care, here are my current holdings.

Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain Pct of Portfolio
GTAT          5.23         10.74                 -                5.51 105.2% 10.3%
GNW          7.10         15.50                 -                8.40 118.2% 6.4%
KLIC       11.41         11.49                 -                0.08 0.7% 4.8%
CSCO       17.38         22.67             1.12              6.41 36.9% 4.6%
BBEP       16.16         20.64             1.05              5.54 34.3% 4.4%
INTC       22.25         24.21             1.42              3.37 15.1% 4.1%
RPXC       16.36         15.49                 -              (0.87) -5.3% 4.0%
AOD          7.93            8.14             0.52              0.73 9.2% 4.0%
NTC       12.00         11.96                 -              (0.04) -0.4% 3.6%
ATVI       17.39         19.64                 -                2.25 12.9% 3.6%
C       51.52         49.34                 -              (2.18) -4.2% 3.4%
TGONF       10.27         10.37             0.19              0.29 2.8% 3.3%
CSQ          8.60         10.71             1.64              3.75 43.6% 3.3%
MBUU       17.50         17.54                 -                0.04 0.2% 3.2%
SBS          9.54            9.38                 -              (0.16) -1.7% 2.7%
TC-PT       15.39         14.55             1.42              0.59 3.8% 2.6%
CS       28.75         30.43                 -                1.68 5.9% 2.5%
CF     185.70       234.06             1.38            49.74 26.8% 2.4%
SIRI          3.73            3.49                 -              (0.24) -6.5% 2.4%
BAC-WTA          5.35            7.10                 -                1.75 32.7% 1.9%
HIG-WT       21.24         25.55                 -                4.31 20.3% 1.9%
AGX       15.60         27.56             0.75            12.71 81.5% 1.9%
SNDK       70.20         71.61                 -                1.41 2.0% 1.9%
KLAC       61.35         62.24                 -                0.89 1.4% 1.8%
GA          8.96         11.13             0.23              2.40 26.7% 1.8%
WNR       39.80         37.54                 -              (2.26) -5.7% 1.7%
RDA          9.74         18.21             0.10              8.58 88.1% 1.7%
SYNA       48.01         58.13                 -              10.12 21.1% 1.6%
RIOM          2.26            2.23                 -              (0.03) -1.3% 1.5%
AVG       17.22         16.40                 -              (0.82) -4.8% 1.3%
FLR       66.06         77.21             0.32            11.47 17.4% 1.2%
OIBAX          4.99            6.02             1.93              2.96 59.3% 1.1%
O       20.46         40.56          15.05            35.16 171.9% 1.1%
NVDA       13.85         15.87             0.24              2.26 16.3% 1.0%
CYOU       29.24         29.95                 -                0.71 2.4% 0.9%

Eye balling the list, it is admittedly a lot of holdings. But that is a fallout of having three discrete approaches. Then it is also apparent that GTAT position is out-sized. Frankly, that is a problem I can live with. I think as more and more rumors go out to general investing public of GTAT's role in new iphones that there is still large upside there.

Invest By Portfolio Type

I still have a large cash position.  As people know, this probably tends to flucuate between 15 and 30% of the total.

Portfolio Proportion
Dividend 22.7%
Mfi 26.3%
Discretionary 23.7%
Cash 27.2%

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