Saturday, February 08, 2014

Weekend Update 2/8/14

Weekend Update

As I mentioned yesterday, it was a pretty good week in the market for me, up about 1.3%.  Also, in the dividend portfolio, INTCBBEP and CSQ all went x-dividend. Cha-ching.

I have placed Jimmy Fallon in the pix today to give him congrats for taking over the Tonight Show.  When he first started the Late Night Show, I did not think he had it to do that job. But I have really become a fan.

MFI Portfolio


First, apologies to my readers.  I thought I had been clear on my picks for my new tranche.  But I have gotten two comments asking what I picked, so clearly I wasn't clear. Is that clear now? I bought ATVIKLACRPXCWNR and SNDK.

Obviously ATVI had nice earning last week. RPXC will be on deck this upcoming week. My MFI portfolio has given up a little ground so far in 2014. I have it down by 3.2%.

So here are the current 4 tranches:

5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $11.49 $0.00 0.8% 13.8%
CYOU $29.24 $29.95 $0.00 2.4% 13.8%
RDA $9.74 $18.21 $0.10 88.1% 13.8%
NVDA $13.85 $15.87 $0.24 16.3% 13.8%
CF $183.97 $234.06 $1.80 28.2% 13.8%
Totals 27.2% 13.8%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $234.06 $1.00 25.5% 9.6%
FLR $66.06 $77.21 $0.32 17.4% 9.6%
AGX $15.60 $27.56 $0.75 81.5% 9.6%
KLIC $11.29 $11.49 $0.00 1.8% 9.6%
RPXC $15.92 $15.49 $0.00 -2.7% 9.6%
Totals 24.7% 9.6%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.40 $0.00 -4.8% 0.7%
ATVI $17.71 $19.64 $0.00 10.9% 0.7%
GA $9.04 $11.13 $0.23 25.7% 0.7%
RPXC $17.04 $15.49 $0.00 -9.1% 0.7%
SYNA $48.01 $58.13 $0.00 21.1% 0.7%
Totals 8.8% 0.7%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $19.64 $0.00 14.7% 0.7%
KLAC $61.47 $62.24 $0.00 1.3% 0.7%
RPXC $16.22 $15.49 $0.00 -4.5% 0.7%
SNDK $69.55 $71.61 $0.00 3.0% 0.7%
WNR $39.11 $37.54 $0.00 -4.0% 0.7%
Totals 2.1% 0.7%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 24.7% 8.8% 2.1% 27.2% 16.0%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 31.0%
MFI Overall Gain 42.2% 56.3% 81.9% 27.2% 51.9%
Current Balance      35,554       39,086     45,486      31,789    151,915
R3K Current Tranche 9.6% 37.6% 0.7% 13.8% 15.4%
R3K Overall Gain 33.9% 37.6% 22.8% 13.8% 27.0%
R3K Balance      33,465       34,411     30,705      28,457    127,040
Annualized IRR 26.8% 43.7% 80.0% 37.1% 50.4%

So you can see from the final table that assuming I started with $100,000 (25,000 spread over the 4 tranches), that I am up to 151,915.  If I had just put the $ into R3K I would be at 127,040..  This is more for score keeping. I did actually bump up my dollars in the recent February tranche by  about 15%. But that starts getting messy.

Discretionary Portfolio

This component of my portfolio continues to be exceedingly successful.  It has really been helped by the twin engines of GNW and GTAT, both of which are out-sized investments that I have held for a long time and have been successful.

Some of the other picks have not been super successful. But a fact about investing is that they are not all going to be flowers.  You will get a few weeds in your garden from time to time.  The corollary to that is to have conviction in your picks and to be patient.  I try not to sell a stock unless the story has changed or I think it is beyond fully valued.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         6,000               5.35                 7.10                     -   32.7% 14.4% 18.3%
C         1,500             51.52               49.34                     -   -4.2% -1.7% -2.5%
CS         1,800             28.75               30.43                     -   5.9% 1.3% 4.6%
GNW         7,000               6.82               15.50                     -   127.3% 37.8% 89.5%
GTAT       21,000               5.23               10.74                     -   105.2% 6.6% 98.5%
HIG-WT         1,650             21.24               25.55                     -   20.3% 9.9% 10.4%
KLIC         5,500             11.46               11.49                     -   0.2% 8.2% -7.9%
MBUU         4,000             17.50               17.54                     -   0.2% 0.7% -0.5%
RIOM       15,000               2.26                 2.23                     -   -1.3% -2.3% 1.0%
SIRI       15,000               3.73                 3.49                     -   -6.5% -1.1% -5.4%
           
Total Open                     -   32.9% 6.4% 26.5%
Closed 5.0% 2.3% 2.7%
Combined 13.5% 3.5% 9.9%

Looking at the stocks above.  There is not a single one I regret.  I may even add to RIOMSIRI has been a little frustrating. But I do believe a higher bid for them will materialize.  C is off to a slow start, but that is a stock I will be very patient with and add on weakness.  KLIC has floundered in price a bit, despite having decent earnings a couple of quarters. I believe the cream will eventually rise.

Dividend Portfolio

This portfolio has actually been trudging along like a soldier.  On this portfolio I do not just think about the metric of how I am doing against the benchmark.  I also think about my income stream, I think about stocks that have increased their dividends, I think about how my reinvested dividends have done (gotta love that compounding!).

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD       10,745            7.93             8.14        5,581.79 9.2% 16.5% -7.2%
BBEP         4,713          16.16           20.64        4,962.84 34.3% 8.0% 26.3%
CSCO         4,421          17.38           22.67        4,965.98 36.9% 35.3% 1.6%
CSQ         6,718            8.60           10.71      10,996.89 43.5% 45.4% -1.9%
INTC         3,754          22.25           24.21        5,335.45 15.1% 29.6% -14.4%
NTC         6,629          12.00           11.96                     -   -0.4% -2.6% 2.2%
O             585          20.46           40.56        8,810.32 171.9% 103.6% 68.3%
OIBAX         4,093            4.99             6.02        7,881.68 59.3% 109.1% -49.8%
SBS         6,211            9.54             9.38                     -   -1.7% 6.7% -8.4%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           14.55        5,686.40 3.8% 13.9% -10.1%
TGONF         7,000          10.27           10.37        1,317.50 2.8% 9.8% -7.0%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            55,539 19.8% 22.0% -2.1%
Closed 12.9% 10.3% 2.6%
Combined 14.0% 12.2% 1.8%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.2%
2014 Gain -0.6%

Here is a table showing the yields and expected annual dividends:

Stock Shares Ann Dividend / Share Yield Projected Dividend Worth
AOD       10,745  $                      0.68 8.3%            7,285            87,466
BBEP         4,713  $                      1.97 9.5%            9,276            97,281
CSCO         4,421  $                      0.68 3.0%            3,007          100,232
CSQ         6,718  $                      0.84 7.8%            5,643            71,954
INTC         3,754  $                      0.90 3.7%            3,378            90,861
NTC         6,629  $                      0.68 5.7%            4,534            79,283
O             585  $                      2.17 5.4%            1,270            23,740
OIBAX         4,093  $                      0.29 4.8%            1,187            24,639
SBS         6,211  $                      0.38 4.1%            2,360            58,259
TC-PT         4,000  $                      1.60 11.0%            6,400            58,200
TGONF         7,000  $                      0.56 5.4%            3,920            72,590
Total 6.3%          48,261          764,506

Here is a table showing reinvested dividends:

Stock Cost Value Dividends Gain Shares
CSQ              10,190               11,087                          1,021               1,918                   1,035
OIBAX                8,329                 8,253                          1,547               1,471                   1,371
AOD                5,573                 5,586                              178                  191                       686
INTC                4,877                 5,200                              245                  568                       215
O                4,297                 5,179                              591               1,473                       128
CSCO                4,220                 4,661                              130                  570                       206
BBEP                4,190                 4,607                              113                  530                       223
GA                1,347                 1,968                                41                  661                       177
CF                      43                       54                                  0                     11                           0
Grand Total              43,065               46,594                          3,865               7,394                   4,041


So this means on CSQ, my reinvested dividends have been $10,190 (with my factor).  Today they are worth $11,087. And in addition to that they have paid 1,021 of dividends on those dividends!  As the Richest Man in Babylon said, "Gold laboreth diligently and contentedly for the wise owner who finds for it profitable employment, multiplying even as the flocks of the field". 

That is exactly what you see in this table, my "gold" working diligently making me more gold.

With that, I will end with one more Schloss quote:







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