Monday, February 10, 2014

Momentary Lapse of Reason

Schloss 6
Momentary Lapse of Reason

Well, we all are driven by emotions. Today, after saying on my blog this morning that I would just hold all my GTAT, I turned around and sold 1/3 at 11.15. That was a not too shabby gain of 25% on the shares I bought the first week of December at 8.92. BUT, I do have to pay ST capital gain taxes and the stock proceeded to go up another 60 cents (so with my factor, a $4,200 mistake).  After I sold, I read this great article (Apple Wooed by Arizona as Obama Seeks U.S. Jobs) over lunch about the Mesa AZ plant and it's capabilities. Still I did make almost $15,000 on the trade and I still have (factor adjusted) 14,000 shares (and still my largest holding). Selling is done, I promise!

I did make two purchases today, which in aggregate offset my GTAT sale.  I bought IEV based upon Decision Moose saying to switch from IWM to IEV this weekend. I am going to start following the moose 100% in my IRA. Then I bought MUSA, which is a September spin off of gas stations/convenience stores from Murphy gas.  They look very reasonably prices with decent growth ops. And we all know that spin offs have a tendency to out perform.

Another stock (former) of mine in the news today was CALL (magic jack). Faithful readers will recall that I bought them on a discretionary basis in November and came very close to making them part of my November 2013 tranche.  I did make a few dollars on them in that trade and exited at 12.95. Today they spiked to 16.25 (up 18%) as Tilson compared them to netflix.  Who knew?

GTAT being up a buck was great tonic for my portfolio. I am now officially in the black for 2014. And I am beating handily the R3K, which is stilled mired 2.36% below December 31st.

Then finally, I did actually start toying around with my May 6th 2014 tranche. Very early days still, but I did build a small watch list.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Noticed your reference to Decision Moose and wonder if you have shared your thoughts/ideas on Dirlam's work in any earlier posts. Followed his method for awhile then drifted away, too impatient I suppose back then, but would appreciate your thinking. Thanks, Karl

Marsh_Gerda said...

I started following the moose around the time of the Lehman crash. I think it is a useful tool and indicator of where money is going. It has not really worked as well the past few years, but it am guessing that as we move away from the very strange years post the crisis that it will become a better method.