Saturday, November 09, 2013

Weekend Update - November 9 2013

Weekend Update

It is officially late fall here in New England.  Got some frost out there, starting to need to wear gloves.  I have started some ham and bean soup this morning, that is my late fall favorite.  I let it simmer all day, even the kids like it.

I finally got around to watching The Social Network last night.  I watched Silver Linings Playbook last week.  As the yard work winds down on the weekends and it gets dark earlier, might as well watch some movies.

Bit of an up and down week last week.  I have been making some poor decisions lately.  I sold RIG way too early, shook out by a GS downgrade.  Then I missed a 5% pop.  And thinking about front running a couple MFI stocks was also a poor decision.  I need to have more discipline.  Thankfully, stocks like GTAT,  NUS, and GNW have been so strong for me in 2013, that I can have a few bad decisions and still have upwards momentum.  So on the week I was up 70 basis points versus the R3K being up 40.  On the year, I am now up over 35%.  With my factor, that amounts to $492,000. GTAT alone is $96,000 of that total.  NUS is $34,000 and GNW is over $70,000.

Dividend Portfolio

Slowly shrinking with the sale of RIG, this is not a high flier, but rather steady eddy.  That being said, I am not really satisfied with how it is doing.  Not sure that I will revamp it, but also not sure about new money going in this direction.  SBSTC-PT and TGONF have all been struggling recently.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AAPL             115        461.49        520.56        1,012.05 14.7% 20.3% -5.6%
ABR       12,000            6.72             6.52                     -   -3.0% 3.1% -6.1%
AOD       21,068            3.96             4.13        3,519.27 8.5% 14.8% -6.4%
BBEP         3,584          15.44           19.37        3,422.22 31.6% 8.8% 22.8%
CSCO         4,389          17.34           23.51        4,219.92 41.1% 33.4% 7.7%
CSQ         6,587            8.57           10.50        9,602.93 39.6% 44.0% -4.4%
INTC         3,718          22.24           24.09        4,490.84 13.7% 27.7% -13.9%
IP         1,172          46.55           43.96                     -   -5.6% 4.6% -10.1%
O             577          20.20           40.06        8,491.76 171.2% 102.9% 68.3%
OIBAX         4,070            4.98             6.08        7,670.03 59.9% 106.3% -46.4%
SBS         6,211            9.54           10.39                     -   8.9% 4.9% 4.0%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           16.71        4,061.80 15.2% 12.0% 3.2%
TCRD         4,200          14.73           16.11        1,764.00 12.2% 9.2% 3.1%
TGONF         7,000          10.27             9.72            337.50 -4.9% 8.0% -12.8%
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            48,592 17.2% 19.5% -2.2%
Closed 13.1% 10.2% 2.9%
Combined 13.9% 12.0% 1.9%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.7%
2013 Gain 17.1%

MFI Portfolio

I will likely write a short round up of the 5 stocks in my November 15th 2012 tranche as they have their victory lap this week.  What a tremendous tranche, up 44%.

11/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $537.62 $520.56 $8.75 -1.5% 34.8%
ABC $40.21 $68.00 $0.63 70.7% 34.8%
LPS $23.89 $34.08 $0.40 44.3% 34.8%
VIAB $49.12 $82.29 $1.15 69.9% 34.8%
WU $12.77 $17.21 $0.50 38.7% 34.8%
Totals 44.4% 34.8%
2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $520.56 $8.75 17.5% 19.4%
GA $6.10 $8.24 $0.42 42.0% 19.4%
STRZA $16.06 $28.53 $0.00 77.6% 19.4%
CA $25.07 $31.93 $0.75 30.4% 19.4%
NUS $41.94 $112.87 $0.90 171.3% 19.4%
Totals 67.7% 19.4%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $11.96 $0.00 4.9% 11.4%
CYOU $29.24 $27.42 $0.00 -6.2% 11.4%
RDA $9.74 $17.53 $0.10 81.1% 11.4%
NVDA $13.85 $15.56 $0.15 13.4% 11.4%
CF $183.97 $219.36 $0.80 19.7% 11.4%
Totals 22.6% 11.4%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $219.36 $0.00 17.1% 7.2%
FLR $66.06 $77.92 $0.16 18.2% 7.2%
AGX $15.60 $23.11 $0.75 52.9% 7.2%
KLIC $11.29 $11.96 $0.00 5.9% 7.2%
RPXC $15.92 $16.75 $0.00 5.2% 7.2%
Totals 19.9% 7.2%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 19.9% 44.4% 67.7% 22.6% 38.0%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 36.7% 44.4% 67.7% 22.6% 42.9%
Current Balance   34,185       36,108     41,937      30,644    142,874
R3K Current Tranche 7.2% 34.8% 19.4% 11.4% 18.2%
R3K Overall Gain 31.0% 34.8% 19.4% 11.4% 24.1%
R3K Balance   32,746       33,689     29,839      27,848    124,122
Annualized IRR 28.8% 45.3% 95.7% 48.7% 54.6%


Discretionary Portfolio

Tough week for KLIC   But HIG-WT is really starting to accelerate.  It is interest rate sensitive, so should go higher as rates melt up (same is true for GNW to lesser extent).

Stock Gain Cost Price
GTAT 179.4%           3.39           9.47
GNW 101.7%           7.10         14.33
HIMX -2.1%           8.94           8.75
HIG-WT 19.8%         21.24         25.45
KLIC 7.3%         11.15         11.96
BAC-WTA 7.5%           5.35           5.75
CALL -3.4%         12.81         12.38
CS 0.9%         28.82         29.07
Grand Total 45.5%           7.59         11.04
 
You will see that HIMX is becoming a major stock for me.  It is now my 6th largest holding, so it definitely matters.

Distribution By Portfolio

Here is where I stand by portfolio type.  You can see I have a pretty decent cash position. Unfortunately, my largest portfolio is also my worst performing.  Obviously, if I do not put more cash there and the under-performance continues, that will eventually reverse.

Portfolio Proportion
Dividend 34.2%
Mfi 21.2%
Discretionary 18.9%
Cash 25.7%





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