The Winning Streak

Streaking

My MFI tracking portfolios have been on a substantial winning streak.  I have mentioned many times that that seems to be the norm for MFI.  It works well for a stretch and then it doesn't.  Case in point, all 12 open portfolios are beating the R3K.  And the 5 months before won as well.  So that is a 17 portfolio winning streak (realization not all are closed).  That would be great, except that prior to the 17 month winning streak, we had an abysmal 29 month losing streak.

Tables

You know I love tables.  Here is one showing the 17 month winning streak and how the tracking portfolio and my two sub portfolios (MFI Divvy and MFI New) have done in that stretch:

Date	MFI Total	MFI Divvy	MFI New	R3K
6/22/2012	26.1%	39.5%	75.5%	24.6%
7/27/2012	30.4%	37.0%	35.9%	25.7%
8/24/2012	26.0%	36.0%	54.2%	19.8%
9/28/2012	39.3%	37.5%	117.3%	22.1%
10/26/2012	48.3%	53.3%	43.3%	28.9%
11/23/2012	44.4%	50.4%	-1.2%	32.1%
12/31/2012	48.1%	49.6%	74.4%	29.4%
1/25/2013	40.4%	38.6%	45.1%	22.5%
2/22/2013	39.3%	48.4%	23.6%	21.2%
3/28/2013	37.3%	40.6%	28.5%	16.7%
4/26/2013	28.4%	32.3%	-7.5%	16.0%
5/24/2013	20.8%	20.5%	5.3%	11.2%
6/28/2013	20.3%	24.5%	26.8%	13.1%
7/29/2013	12.6%	18.3%	-12.5%	8.0%
8/30/2013	12.1%	15.5%	19.1%	11.0%
9/27/2013	8.3%	8.7%	27.0%	6.5%
10/25/2013	3.4%	5.8%	8.2%	2.3%

Of course I like to translate percentages into dollars (assuming one spread $100,000 over 12 months) as I comment up 5% and then down 5% is not the same as up 25% and then down 25% (do the math).

Tranche	MFI Total	MFI Divvy	MFI New	R3K
June	12,900	14,758	18,912	11,984
July	12,477	13,775	10,110	11,533
August	12,006	13,354	15,615	11,306
September	12,818	12,709	23,464	11,050
October	13,034	13,788	13,188	11,202
November	12,271	12,783	8,397	11,228
December	12,593	12,719	14,825	10,995
January	11,932	11,782	12,337	10,415
February	11,838	12,614	10,508	10,305
March	11,669	11,949	10,924	9,919
April	10,910	11,242	7,865	9,861
May	10,264	10,242	8,955	9,448
Total	144,711	151,716	155,100	129,246

Funny how the math kind of ties into my re boot in August of 2012.  The comparable numbers for my 4 tranches would be me: 146,889 and R3K 126,363.  So interestingly, the R3K is very similar to the table above (difference in starting in August instead of June).  My 146,889 is pretty much on par with the three components of the tracking portfolios.  So while I feel "smart" picking my own stocks etc in my tranches, fact is I am tracking virtually exactly where I should be if I had just picked randomly. Humbling, I know. But at least I was smart enough to re boot MFI at a time a new winning streak started!

My Table for comp:

Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	19.7%	2.6%	79.8%	23.7%	31.1%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	0.0%	0.0%	12.1%
MFI Overall Gain	36.6%	47.5%	79.8%	23.7%	46.9%
Current Balance	34,142	36,870	44,950	30,928	146,889
R3K Current Tranche	9.3%	36.7%	21.7%	13.6%	20.3%
R3K Overall Gain	33.5%	36.7%	21.7%	13.6%	26.4%
R3K Balance	33,386	34,170	30,417	28,390	126,363
Annualized IRR	27.7%	46.2%	106.5%	47.1%	81.0%