Saturday, November 02, 2013

Weekend Update - Into November

Hard to believe it is November 2nd.  Yesterday was a very weird day here, it was 62 degrees when I woke up.  That is unusual for November 1st in New England, we are not Miami!  Today is a bit more normal, 42 degrees.

Month of October for MFI Index

To me it felt like earnings have been a bit on the disappointing side and I have seen several stocks I follow go to the woodshed.  That being said, I was up 3.7% for the month.  Here are how the individual stocks in the MFI index fared for the month (note these exclude Friday):

Index Stock Start Last Month Current YTD Change Monthly Change Shares
1   APOL      20.92         20.81         26.71 27.7% 28.4%         11.14
2   AGX      18.00         21.97         23.00 27.8% 4.7%         12.95
3   BAH      13.92         19.61         20.09 44.3% 2.4%         16.75
4   CA      21.98         30.42         32.51 47.9% 6.9%         10.61
5   CPLA      28.23         56.56         60.92 115.8% 7.7%           8.26
6   CF    203.16      211.43       216.20 6.4% 2.3%           1.15
7   CSCO      19.65         23.77         23.07 17.4% -2.9%         11.86
8   DELL      10.14         13.91         14.02 38.3% 0.8%         22.99
9   DLX      32.24         42.41         47.84 48.4% 12.8%           7.23
10   DMRC      20.70         20.53         21.39 3.3% 4.2%         11.26
11   DLB      29.33         34.51         35.74 21.9% 3.6%           7.95
12   GME      25.09         50.48         55.65 121.8% 10.2%           9.29
13   GNI      67.20         74.25         75.40 12.2% 1.5%           3.47
14   GTAT         3.03           8.51            7.50 147.4% -11.9%         76.93
15   HLF      32.94         70.67         65.72 99.5% -7.0%           7.08
16   HFC      46.55         43.71         47.66 2.4% 9.0%           5.01
17   IDCC      41.09         37.64         39.03 -5.0% 3.7%           5.67
18   INTX         9.48           9.37            9.17 -3.3% -2.1%         24.59
19   ESI      17.31         31.00         40.12 131.8% 29.4%         13.47
20   JCOM      30.60         50.23         55.69 82.0% 10.9%           7.62
21   KLIC      11.99         11.55         12.90 7.6% 11.7%         19.44
22   LPS      24.62         33.57         34.82 41.4% 3.7%           9.47
23   MANT      25.94         29.39         28.57 10.1% -2.8%           8.99
24   MSFT      26.71         33.97         36.10 35.1% 6.3%           8.73
25   NATR      14.48         20.81         20.69 42.9% -0.6%         16.10
26   NSU         4.28           3.24            3.72 -13.1% 14.8%         54.47
27   NTI      25.44         22.90         26.44 3.9% 15.5%           9.16
28   NUS      37.05         96.64       117.83 218.0% 21.9%           6.29
29   PDLI         7.04           8.27            8.39 19.2% 1.5%         33.11
30   PETS      11.10         16.75         15.31 37.9% -8.6%         21.00
31   PBI      10.64         18.94         22.09 107.6% 16.6%         21.91
32   POOSF         1.42                -                  -   -100.0% 0.0%      164.63
33   POZN         5.01           5.73            6.29 25.4% 9.7%         46.53
34   QCOR      26.72         58.75         62.42 133.6% 6.2%           8.72
35   RTN      57.56         78.17         84.02 46.0% 7.5%           4.05
36   RPXC         9.04         17.54         17.86 97.5% 1.8%         25.79
37   SAI      11.32         17.27         18.37 62.3% 6.4%         20.59
38   STX      30.42         44.52         49.45 62.6% 11.1%           7.66
39   SVLC         2.52           1.77            1.74 -31.0% -1.7%         92.51
40   SAVE      17.73         34.27         43.15 143.4% 25.9%         13.15
41   STRA      56.17         41.52         39.42 -29.8% -5.1%           4.15
42   TNAV         7.99           5.84            7.24 -9.4% 24.0%         29.18
43   TZOO      18.99         26.52         21.53 13.4% -18.8%         12.28
44   UIS      17.30         25.19         26.35 52.3% 4.6%         13.47
45   USMO      11.68         14.54         15.30 31.0% 5.2%         19.96
46   USNA      32.93         86.79         68.23 107.2% -21.4%           7.08
47   EGY         8.65           5.58            5.27 -39.1% -5.6%         26.95
48   VCI      25.78         29.50         27.98 8.5% -5.2%           9.04
49   VG         2.37           3.14            3.73 57.4% 18.8%         98.36
50   WCRX      12.04         23.18         23.18 92.5% 0.0%         19.36
Total    11,656      16,055       16,836 44.1% 4.9%

Up 4.9% for the month and 44% for the year!   But looking down the monthly column, you can see stocks that got torched by earnings (USNA) and those that had great earnings (APOL).

Dividend Portfolio

This continues to generally lag.  I am ok with that.  In part this is about income, and it is thrashing any sort of bond portfolio.  I did a little projection of expected dividends for 2014 as I get more fully invested and I can see that I am starting to realistically approach an income stream that could support retirement (note I have some mutual funds I do not show here. Also remember all values I show in tables are illustrative and have a multiplier).

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AAPL             115        461.49        520.03            817.31 14.2% 19.8% -5.6%
ABR       12,000            6.72             6.58                     -   -2.1% 2.6% -4.8%
AOD       21,068            3.96             4.18        3,519.27 9.7% 14.4% -4.6%
BBEP         3,584          15.44           19.43        1,675.20 28.9% 8.4% 20.5%
CSCO         4,389          17.34           22.57        4,219.92 35.7% 32.8% 2.8%
CSQ         6,587            8.57           10.52        9,144.46 39.0% 43.4% -4.4%
INTC         3,718          22.24           24.33        3,654.19 13.8% 27.2% -13.4%
IP         1,172          46.55           44.96                     -   -3.4% 4.1% -7.5%
O             577          20.20           41.95        8,491.76 180.5% 102.1% 78.4%
OIBAX         4,059            4.98             6.17        7,670.03 61.9% 105.8% -43.9%
RIG         1,898          49.94           47.56        1,491.28 -3.2% 10.8% -14.0%
SBS         6,211            9.54           10.60                     -   11.1% 4.4% 6.7%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           16.88        4,061.80 16.3% 11.6% 4.8%
TCRD         4,200          14.73           16.18        1,764.00 12.7% 8.7% 4.0%
TGONF         7,000          10.27             9.93            337.50 -2.9% 7.5% -10.4%
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            46,847 15.3% 18.1% -2.8%
Closed 13.5% 10.1% 3.4%
Combined 13.9% 11.9% 2.0%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 18.0%
2013 Gain 17.6%

Stock Shares Ann Dividend / Share Yield Projected Dividend Sector Worth
AAPL             115  $      12.20 2.3%              1,405 Consumer         59,875
ABR       12,000  $        0.48 7.3%              5,760 Real Estate         78,960
AOD       21,068  $        0.32 7.8%              6,826 Hybrid         88,063
BBEP         3,584  $        1.95 10.0%              6,988 Resources         69,630
CSCO         4,389  $        0.68 3.0%              2,984 Tech         99,028
CSQ         6,587  $        0.84 8.0%              5,533 Hybrid         69,292
INTC         3,718  $        0.90 3.7%              3,347 Tech         90,450
IP         1,172  $        1.40 3.1%              1,641 Bond         52,693
O             577  $        2.17 5.2%              1,252 Services         24,208
OIBAX         4,059  $        0.29 4.7%              1,177 Bond         25,045
RIG         1,898  $        2.24 4.7%              4,252 Services         90,276
SBS         6,211  $        0.38 3.6%              2,360 Utility         65,837
TC-PT         4,000  $        1.60 9.5%              6,400 Resources         67,520
TCRD         4,200  $        1.36 8.4%              5,712 Hybrid         67,956
TGONF         7,000  $        0.56 5.6%              3,920 Finance         69,510
           
           
           
           
           
Total 5.8%            59,556   1,018,342

MFI Portfolio

This was the first month in a while where my MFI portfolio was just steady state with the Russell 3000:

Date Differential
12/1/2012 -2.20%
1/1/2013 -1.78%
2/1/2013 -2.26%
3/1/2013 -2.23%
4/1/2013 -0.43%
5/1/2013 2.00%
6/1/2013 4.75%
7/1/2013 4.29%
8/1/2013 6.91%
9/1/2013 10.46%
10/1/2013 19.67%
11/1/2013 19.75%
Current 19.89%

11/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $537.62 $520.03 $8.75 -1.6% 34.2%
ABC $40.21 $66.38 $0.63 66.7% 34.2%
LPS $23.89 $34.47 $0.40 46.0% 34.2%
VIAB $49.12 $83.55 $1.15 72.4% 34.2%
WU $12.77 $17.48 $0.50 40.8% 34.2%
Totals 44.9% 34.2%
2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $520.03 $8.75 17.4% 18.9%
GA $6.10 $8.92 $0.42 53.1% 18.9%
STRZA $16.06 $30.03 $0.00 87.0% 18.9%
CA $25.07 $31.73 $0.75 29.5% 18.9%
NUS $41.94 $117.38 $0.90 182.0% 18.9%
Totals 73.8% 18.9%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $12.70 $0.00 11.4% 10.9%
CYOU $29.24 $28.27 $0.00 -3.3% 10.9%
RDA $9.74 $15.01 $0.10 55.2% 10.9%
NVDA $13.85 $15.26 $0.15 11.2% 10.9%
CF $183.97 $214.94 $0.80 17.3% 10.9%
Totals 18.4% 10.9%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $214.94 $0.00 14.8% 6.8%
FLR $66.06 $74.90 $0.16 13.6% 6.8%
AGX $15.60 $22.64 $0.75 49.9% 6.8%
KLIC $11.29 $12.70 $0.00 12.5% 6.8%
RPXC $15.92 $17.49 $0.00 9.9% 6.8%
Totals 20.1% 6.8%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 20.1% 44.9% 73.8% 18.4% 38.7%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 37.0% 44.9% 73.8% 18.4% 43.5%
Current Balance   34,257       36,216     43,452      29,590    143,514
R3K Current Tranche 6.8% 34.2% 18.9% 10.9% 17.7%
R3K Overall Gain 30.5% 34.2% 18.9% 10.9% 23.6%
R3K Balance   32,614       33,555     29,719      27,736    123,624
Annualized IRR 29.5% 46.8% 108.7% 40.7% 434.3%

Transactions

I have been a little more active than I had intended to be in the past week.  I think I have been trading a bit more on emotion, which probably isn't a good idea. I added a bit to AWRE before their earnings last week.  Their earnings were just ok, so that has dropped a bit.  Then I bought CALL as well prior to their earnings. They have proceeded to drop 6.5% post my purchase. They are a hated stock with a high short ratio.

My intent is for CALL and AWRE to be part of my November MFI tranche, and I was undisciplined and bought them early (as their earnings were upcoming).  They will go into the Nov 15th tranche at price as of Nov 15th.

Then I sold my ACAS for a 11% profit.  I can not really give a good reason for selling them except that I was feeling a bit guilty for my stock purchases and they were always a discretionary buy.

I bought SCAI post IPO at $26.80.  I actually like their story and think they will be growing.  I increased my ABR holdings by 50% as they continue to trickle down and seem like a strong income play.  Finally, I bought HIMX.   This is a stock I have been following for many months (Stocks Starting to Run Away?) , it is a reasonably valued (in my opinion) play on Google Glass.

Now you might be saying, wow!  What is he doing???  The CALL and AWRE purchases will be offset on November 15th when I sell my 5 MFI stocks.  In addition, I did recently get more funds to invest and even with these net additions (the ACAS position was large and I also sold STO last week), I am 21% cash.

Portfolio Proportion
Dividend 37.9%
Mfi 21.3%
Discretionary 19.8%
Cash 21.0%

Discretionary Portfolio

Never a dull moment with GTAT, which I think reports earnings next week.

Stock Gain Cost Price
GNW 103.6%           7.10         14.47
GTAT 138.3%           3.39           8.08
SCAI -2.1%         26.80         26.24
KLIC 14.8%         11.15         12.80
HIG-WT 16.7%         21.24         24.79
BAC-WTA 10.5%           5.35           5.91
AWRE -3.2%           5.41           5.24
HIMX 0.0%           9.54           9.54
CALL -7.3%         12.81         11.87
SFXE -33.5%         13.00           8.64
Grand Total 36.3%
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