Thoughts From the Hard rock Hotel

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. We are at the Hard Rock Hotel at Universal Studios. It is Saturday morning and I only have my IPad, so I have not been following the markets that closely. I would generally say I outperformed on Wednesday and Friday.  One big reason was HIMX, a smaller stock that I took a large position in post their earnings. My average basis is 8.94 and on Wednesday they spiked 10% to 10.38. One Friday they pulled back to $10.00, but I am sitting on a very nice short term gain already. HIMX is in my discretionary portfolio, so I can sell when I feel like it. But I think HIMX still has at least 20% upside.

AAPL has gone up a lot the past few days, it does look like an iPad Christmas. I still own some shares, but am having some remorse and selling the majority of my shares at the $500 to $510 range as they closed yesterday at $556.

CS, which thus far has been a very quiet stock in my discretionary portfolio, moved up about 3% on the week.  Any least the direction was right. This is my play on a European recovery. It is a tepid play, buying a Swiss bank instead of a bank in a more troubled spot like Ireland or Spain.

NUS really had a solid week and is now at $127. Recall just two weeks ago I was thinking about capping my upside at $120 via some covered calls.  I have signed up to do options now, but am hesitant.

TCPT had another bad week. I was really tempted to bail on this stock as it felt like they wanted to go to zero. But stepping back, it actually feels to me that a lot of the basic material stocks are currently way oversold. It is not the time to be selling. So I will be patient. My initial plan was to hold through 2015, and I should not let fear guide that position.

It has been a quiet two weeks for me on the transaction front.  I have done nothing except allow a few dividends to reinvest.  I suppose I am still a believer that the market is extended and my preference is to be holding my 27% cash as opposed to putting more in right now.  I do expect that when tapering is made official, thre will likely be a sell off and at that point I may do some buying.

I will try and post my weekly update and my view of the November 30th 2012 tracking portfolio tomorrow evening when I land back in Dear Connecticut.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have a great Thanksgiving!  We are off to Orlando to get away from the New England chill for a few days.  My portfolio pretty much reflected the fact that few people are trading or making news today, up 4 basis points. But that made it my 5th straight up day, nothing wrong with that.

As well as generally relaxing, this looks to be second straight week with no transactions.  I have no doubt that I tend to over trade, so it feels good to step back for a bit.

My Six MFI Tranches Versus FNSAX

Someone asked how using the MFI approach (individual stock selection) compares against the Mutual Fund FNSAX, which uses the same approach to a large extent.  All else being equal, I think you would expect individual stock picking to be better as the expenses should be lower.  But all else is rarely equal.  We often bring biases into our stock selections.  In addition, 6 tranches is really too short a stretch to make a judgement. It is like trying to know if you have won the poker hand before all the cards in the river are shown.

I am pleased to say I am ahead by about 10 points (versus the 22 I am beating the R3K).  My first two tranches under-performed, but the 4 active ones are all winning.

8/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
DLB	$34.43	$33.04	$4.00	7.6%	26.6%
KFY	$13.98	$18.95	$0.00	35.6%	26.6%
MSFT	$30.19	$31.92	$0.92	8.8%	26.6%
NSU	$3.62	$3.33	$0.12	-4.6%	26.6%
UIS	$19.96	$24.52	$0.00	22.8%	26.6%
Totals				14.1%	26.6%
11/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
AAPL	$537.62	$527.28	$8.75	-0.3%	48.7%
ABC	$40.21	$69.23	$0.86	74.3%	48.7%
LPS	$23.89	$34.26	$0.40	45.1%	48.7%
VIAB	$49.12	$80.94	$1.15	67.1%	48.7%
WU	$12.77	$16.40	$0.50	32.3%	48.7%
Totals				43.7%	48.7%
2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
AAPL	$450.60	$523.74	$8.75	18.2%	35.8%
GA	$6.10	$11.41	$0.42	94.0%	35.8%
STRZA	$16.06	$27.37	$0.00	70.4%	35.8%
CA	$25.07	$32.86	$1.00	35.1%	35.8%
NUS	$41.94	$123.78	$1.20	198.0%	35.8%
Totals				83.1%	35.8%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
KLIC	$11.40	$12.45	$0.00	9.2%	24.2%
CYOU	$29.24	$28.07	$0.00	-4.0%	24.2%
RDA	$9.74	$17.98	$0.10	85.7%	24.2%
NVDA	$13.85	$15.51	$0.24	13.7%	24.2%
CF	$183.97	$213.64	$1.80	17.1%	24.2%
Totals				24.3%	24.2%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
CF	$187.26	$213.64	$1.00	14.6%	13.0%
FLR	$66.06	$78.29	$0.16	18.8%	13.0%
AGX	$15.60	$22.50	$0.75	49.0%	13.0%
KLIC	$11.29	$12.45	$0.00	10.3%	13.0%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.76	$0.00	5.3%	13.0%
Totals				19.6%	13.0%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	FNSAX
AVG	$17.22	$17.22	-	0.0%	0.1%
ATVI	$17.71	$17.41	-	-1.7%	0.1%
GA	$9.04	$11.41	-	26.3%	0.1%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.76	-	-1.6%	0.1%
SYNA	$48.01	$49.16	-	2.4%	0.1%
Totals				5.1%	0.1%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	19.6%	5.1%	83.1%	24.3%	32.6%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	0.0%	0.0%	12.2%
MFI Overall Gain	36.4%	51.0%	83.1%	24.3%	48.7%
Current Balance	34,101	37,756	45,782	31,086	148,725
FNSAX Current Tranche	13.0%	48.7%	35.8%	24.2%	30.4%
FNSAX Overall Gain	43.1%	48.7%	35.8%	24.2%	38.0%
FNSAX Balance	35,775	37,175	33,940	31,062	137,951
Annualized IRR	27.4%	49.2%	109.6%	47.6%	58.4%