Tuesday, May 07, 2013

Keep On Truckin'

What a year so far.  The green arrows just keep pointing up.  Really, you just needed to be invested in 2013 and you'd be doing pretty well.  I just took a look and I am 24% in cash, so while I have done well - if I had had some courage when TC-PT was at a puke price of below $14 I could have made some easy money.

Here is a listing of all my buys in 2013 (not counting reinvestments):


Stock Start price Current Dividend % Gain Status
CIM                  2.61             3.29                0.09 29.6%   Open
GTAT                  3.53             3.68                    -   4.5%   Closed
NUGT                10.14          10.19                    -   0.5%   Closed
GNW                  8.10          10.65                    -   31.5%   Open
SCO                39.46          38.84                    -   -1.6%   Closed
CIM                  2.80             3.29                0.09 20.8%   Open
CDE                23.85          24.42                    -   2.4%   Closed
AOD                  3.90             4.23                0.08 10.6%   Open
VECO                33.27          32.85                    -   -1.3%   Closed
NUGT                  8.09             8.23                    -   1.7%   Closed
NUGT                  7.76             7.87                    -   1.5%   Closed
AAPL             450.60        460.71                2.65 2.8%   Open
GA                  6.10             7.90                    -   29.5%   Open
STRZA                16.06          24.06                    -   49.8%   Open
CA                25.07          27.67                0.25 11.4%   Open
NUS                41.94          54.52                0.30 30.7%   Open
CIM                  3.08             3.29                0.09 9.8%   Open
ABR                  7.18             7.58                0.12 7.2%   Open
SD                  5.74             5.93                    -   3.3%   Closed
FCX                32.12          31.43                0.31 -1.2%   Open
AOD                  3.97             4.23                0.05 7.9%   Open
NUGT                30.69          12.11                    -   -60.5%   Open
NEM                41.18          33.07                0.43 -18.7%   Open
GTAT                  2.73             3.41                    -   25.0%   Closed
RIG                52.65          54.32                    -   3.2%   Open
SD                  5.89             5.30                    -   -10.0%   Open
SD                  5.64             5.30                    -   -6.0%   Open
SD                  5.58             5.30                    -   -5.0%   Open
FSYS                17.90          16.07                    -   -10.2%   Closed
CDE                18.05          15.16                    -   -16.0%   Open
TC-PT                16.02          16.35                0.41 4.6%   Open
SD                  5.02             5.30                    -   5.7%   Open
RIG                49.96          54.32                    -   8.7%   Open
TC-PT                15.90          16.35                0.41 5.4%   Open
NEM                39.36          33.07                    -   -16.0%   Open
TC-PT                15.80          16.35                0.41 6.1%   Open
NEM                36.71          33.07                    -   -9.9%   Open
SD                  4.92             5.30                    -   7.7%   Open
TC-PT                15.15          16.35                0.41 10.6%   Open
AAPL             422.63        460.71                    -   9.0%   Open
GNW                  9.54          10.65                    -   11.6%   Open
GTAT                  3.39             3.79                    -   11.8%   Open
AAPL             407.67        460.71                    -   13.0%   Open
BAC-WTA                  5.10             5.71                    -   12.1%   Open
ABR                  7.25             7.58                    -   4.6%   Open
TC-PT                13.99          16.35                0.41 19.8%   Open
FCX                28.30          31.43                    -   11.1%   Open
STO                23.49          23.71                    -   0.9%   Open
KLIC                11.40          11.40                    -   0.0%   Open
CYOU                29.24          30.05                    -   2.8%   Open
RDA                  9.74             9.88                    -   1.5%   Open
NVDA                13.85          13.83                    -   -0.1%   Open
CF             183.97        186.12                    -   1.2%   Open
























Totals


4.3%
Average Days Held

               42

You can see starting with the SD purchase at $4.92 that I have been on a good streak. The IRR on these transactions is quite high, 56%. Of course, that will be more meaningful over a year.  If I had only stayed away from computer on February 26th, when I bought my two worst picks of the year: NEM and NUGT!  But it doesn't work that way.

Even with the sales of long term dividend portfolio winners like HFC, MPC, SAI, BHK, JQC and KMF, my remaining dividend stocks are getting close to break even with the Russell 3000.  I am just 1 point behind on open positions (I am now 5.6% ahead on closed positions and up 4% overall). I only have 16 open positions, probably had 25 a year ago.  Part of this was intentional, as I wanted to be more concentrated in my absolutely best ideas. But part is that I am waiting for some more bargains to appear.  I really wanted to buy KKR and/or BX.  They were on my watching list in early February, and I was just looking for a 5% drop.  Guess what?  They are each up about 25%!  That is the risk of trying to time the market.  If you see a stock that you think is a good value, it can be a mistake to wait for that final 5% pullback.

Other divvy stocks I am considering are STX and PSEC.  I need to look a bit at PSEC as it is down 2% since February and I want to make sure it isn't broken.  Have a Terrific Tuesday everyone!

5 comments:

Unknown said...

Hello Marshall, this is Lynn. Have u had a chance to read the earning report for SD? What is your take on it? Thanks

Marsh_Gerda said...

Lynn - it strikes me as a real mixed bag. I was disappointed that they had to take such a large write off on Permian Basin sale. Makes me wonder if other assets are carried at inflated prices. I also did not like the fact that they have scaled back estimates of 2013 production by 5 or 6%. I do like that they are watching expenses much more closely now and seem more focused. A the end of the day, I think SD will require a lot of patience. I am not sure it is best place for my money right now. I may wait to see what Prem Watsa and Leon Cooperman have been doing. They are way smarter than me and have bought huge chunks. Their activity should be published by next week.

Unknown said...

Thanks. I was thinking about getting back into SD. I will hold off for me. Prem Watsa also has a big investment in BBRY. I hope he is right for both of us. What is your time frame for new new purchases?

Marsh_Gerda said...

Lynn - I do not have plans for purchases currently. But, as you know, I have a decent sized cash position (24% right now), so if an individual security becomes a good value, I might buy. Where are you that you are posting at this time (2:41 am edt)?

Unknown said...

Marshall, thank you for your reply. I am from Vancouver, BC. I should have waited for your detailed report. :-)