Monday, December 23, 2013

Your Patience Will Be Rewarded

One show I used to love watching with my son was "Good Eats".  I know that seems like a strange father and son show, but Alton Brown (the host) was very funny and explained the science behind cooking that we both found interesting.  We actually have bought tickets to see him in Hartford this winter and splurged a bit for some VIP passes that will allow us to go backstage after the show and meet him.

One of his catch phrases was "Your patience will be rewarded".  Basically saying if you took your time and did things the right way you would be a great meal at the end.

The same is true for investing.  Markets at the end of the day are biased to go up.  And if you buy stocks that are relatively cheap and good companies, sometimes you just need to wait, be patient.  It isn't always easy.  Especially when you look at the markets daily, you just feel the urge to "do something".  But I would argue that more often than not (assuming you have done your homework) the best thing to do is nothing.  I remember a Warren Buffett quote in one of his annual letters to investors that the investors would have been best off if he had done nothing, just spent all year going to the movies and playing golf.

That is not to say that investing should be buy and forget, but if done properly, you might really just need to make adjustments once a quarter.  I know that seems like blasphemy from someone writing a daily blog about investing.  But look at some of my positions that have done the best: MFI tranches and GNW. If anything, I have hurt myself by over-thinking, selling 40% of my GNW position on May 16th.  You know how much that cost me? About $19,000 (with my multiplier).

Here are all my current holdings in descending order of value:

Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain Pct of Portfolio
GTAT          5.23                   8.57                 -                3.34 63.7% 8.6%
GNW          7.10                 15.59                 -                8.49 119.4% 6.7%
HIMX          8.94                 13.12                 -                4.18 46.8% 5.7%
GA          8.68                 11.26             0.37              2.96 34.1% 5.3%
KLIC       11.25                 13.17                 -                1.92 17.1% 4.6%
INTC       22.25                 25.32             1.20              4.26 19.1% 4.6%
CSCO       17.34                 21.57             0.96              5.19 29.9% 4.5%
BBEP       16.13                 20.10             0.73              4.71 29.2% 4.5%
AOD          3.96                   4.18             0.21              0.43 10.9% 4.3%
ATHM       28.80                 29.25                 -                0.45 1.6% 4.2%
CSQ          8.59                 11.01             1.51              3.93 45.8% 3.5%
SBS          9.54                 11.33                 -                1.79 18.8% 3.4%
TGONF       10.27                   9.98             0.19            (0.11) -1.1% 3.4%
NUS       41.94              138.66             1.20            97.92 233.5% 3.2%
CS       28.75                 30.44                 -                1.69 5.9% 2.6%
RPXC       16.54                 16.88                 -                0.34 2.1% 2.6%
CF     185.70              231.12             1.38            46.80 25.2% 2.5%
TC-PT       15.39                 12.46             1.02            (1.91) -12.4% 2.4%
HIG-WT       21.24                 27.94                 -                6.70 31.6% 2.2%
AGX       15.60                 26.70             0.75            11.85 76.0% 1.9%
BAC-WTA          5.35                   6.49                 -                1.14 21.3% 1.9%
RDA          9.74                 17.97             0.10              8.34 85.6% 1.8%
STRZA       16.06                 28.62                 -              12.56 78.2% 1.7%
TC          2.19                   2.10                 -              (0.09) -4.1% 1.5%
SYNA       48.01                 50.32                 -                2.31 4.8% 1.5%
ATVI       17.71                 18.15                 -                0.44 2.5% 1.5%
AVG       17.22                 16.16                 -              (1.06) -6.2% 1.3%
FLR       66.06                 79.02             0.32            13.28 20.1% 1.3%
CA       25.07                 33.07             1.00              8.99 35.9% 1.3%
AAPL     450.60              570.09             8.75          128.24 28.5% 1.2%
OIBAX          4.98                   6.08             1.90              2.99 60.0% 1.2%
NVDA       13.85                 15.78             0.24              2.17 15.6% 1.1%
O       20.37                 37.84          14.76            32.23 158.2% 1.1%
CYOU       29.24                 31.03                 -                1.79 6.1% 1.0%

Looking down the list, you can see how HIMX and GA have become quite a bit larger.

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