Wednesday, December 25, 2013

February 1st 2014 Tranche - Early Thoughts

Hard to believe, but I just have a bit more than a month and my February 1st 2013 tranche will hit it's anniversary.  This is my (so far) best tranche ever. It still has an outside shot at being a double for the composite five stocks:

2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $567.67 $8.75 27.9% 24.2%
GA $6.10 $11.25 $0.65 95.1% 24.2%
STRZA $16.06 $28.89 $0.00 79.9% 24.2%
CA $25.07 $33.41 $1.00 37.3% 24.2%
NUS $41.94 $137.51 $1.20 230.7% 24.2%
Totals 94.2% 24.2%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 28.6% 6.2% 94.2% 30.1% 39.4%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8%
MFI Overall Gain 46.6% 52.7% 94.2% 30.1% 55.9%
Current Balance   36,661       38,171     48,546      32,514    155,892
R3K Current Tranche 11.6% 36.7% 24.2% 15.9% 22.1%
R3K Overall Gain 36.3% 36.7% 24.2% 15.9% 28.3%
R3K Balance   34,078       34,170     31,042      28,976    128,266
Annualized IRR 32.4% 46.4% 109.6% 50.9% 59.8%

As you can see from the second table, the success of the February tranche means this is my largest reinvestment in dollars (it is about 20% larger than the next largest tranche).

Current Top 50

Here are the current top 50:

Ticker Mkt Cap
ATVI 12,523.77
MO 76,290.95
APOL 3,033.04
AAPL 512,632.40
AGX 379.06
BAH 2,674.47
BKE 2,472.03
CA 14,770.62
CACI 1,688.02
CHE 1,364.91
CRUS 1,322.03
CSCO 116,003.50
COH 15,734.54
CRTX 252.17
DLX 2,609.42
DHX 411.71
EBIX 550.08
EGL 553.48
GME 5,870.42
GTIV 393.93
GNI 109.80
IQNT 386.29
ESI 805.80
LPS 3,160.37
LQDT 709.09
LO 18,523.80
MANT 1,084.96
MSFT 305,630.50
MYGN 2,052.80
NATR 280.07
NOC 25,181.51
PDLI 1,432.89
PFMT 500.85
PETS 333.74
PRSC 351.13
QCOR 3,274.79
RTN 28,461.76
RAI 26,434.63
RPXC 920.62
SAIC 1,548.89
SWHC 746.67
STRA 382.32
RGR 1,425.10
UIS 1,496.52
UNTD 187.96
USMO 313.30
USNA 1,080.53
VCI 1,329.71
VGR 1,547.65
WTW 1,829.49

Here are other stocks I would consider as quasi MFI stocks: GAME, BPI, AVG, CYOU, CTCM, TARO, KLIC and AZN.

Kind of eyeballing the lists, I kind of see various groupings: (1) stocks I already own, (2) vice stocks, (3) for profit education and (4) stocks I have kind of dismissed already.

I do not think there is any shame in picking stocks I already own. So that would include: RPXCCACSCOAAPLATVIAGXCYOUAVG and KLIC. I think all of those are worthy of consideration.

Vice stocks include MO, LO, RAI, VGR, RGR and SWHC.  I have owned a number of these over the past few years with pretty good success.  I think they are all worthy of a look-see.

In the For Profit Education arena we have APOL, ESI, STRA and BPI.  BPI is interesting to me as they have so much cash.  But all of them have declining revenues, I would have to think long and hard about that.

To be continued...

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