Dec 7 2013 Weekend Update

Weekend Update

Not a great week for me, down a bit over 1 percent.  The sharp drops in GTAT and TC-PT were difficult to overcome.  I viewed both as an opportunity, not a problem and added to GTAT and TC during the week.  I also did some housekeeping during the week and sold TCRD, IP and ABR from my dividend portfolio.

Dividend Portfolio

This continues to be the slacker of my portfolios. It was down 1.5%.  I am going to be taking several moves regarding this portfolio.  First, I am/have made it smaller with the three sales listed above.  Second, if/when we ever get some sort of pullback, I am going to make two or three of the positions MFI/Dividend stocks and they will act like an MFI tranche in that I will hold for a year and then re-evaluate.  These will likely be positions perhaps double in size of what I typically put in an MFI stock.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	21,206	3.96	4.08	4,024.45	7.8%	17.1%	-9.4%
BBEP	4,675	16.13	18.81	3,422.22	21.2%	8.5%	12.7%
CSCO	4,389	17.34	21.28	4,219.92	28.3%	36.2%	-7.9%
CSQ	6,631	8.58	10.61	9,602.93	40.6%	46.6%	-6.1%
INTC	3,754	22.25	24.82	4,490.84	16.9%	30.1%	-13.2%
O	580	20.29	37.08	8,597.27	155.9%	106.2%	49.6%
OIBAX	4,070	4.98	6.07	7,739.02	60.0%	110.6%	-50.6%
SBS	6,211	9.54	10.00	-	4.8%	7.1%	-2.3%
TC-PT	4,000	15.39	12.88	4,061.80	-9.7%	14.4%	-24.0%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	9.82	1,317.50	-2.6%	10.2%	-12.8%
Total Open				47,476	17.8%	25.8%	-8.1%
Closed					12.9%	10.3%	2.6%
Combined					13.6%	12.6%	1.0%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.0%

MFI Portfolio

While my discretionary and Dividend Portfolios struggled during the week.  MFI continued to motor along.  It was really helped by blow out AGX earnings Thursday night that powered AGX up 17% yesterday.  Also, CF gave a presentation that they are considering either taking on more debt or becoming a MLP.  That caused CF to go up by more than 10% on the week.  I read some analyst reports that said CF could go between $270 and $320 with those structures (Why CF looks to unlock value using more debt, with interest at 4%).

2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$560.02	$8.75	26.2%	21.8%
GA	$6.10	$11.33	$0.42	92.7%	21.8%
STRZA	$16.06	$28.54	$0.00	77.7%	21.8%
CA	$25.07	$32.85	$1.00	35.0%	21.8%
NUS	$41.94	$128.93	$1.20	210.3%	21.8%
Totals				88.4%	21.8%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$12.21	$0.00	7.1%	13.7%
CYOU	$29.24	$29.83	$0.00	2.0%	13.7%
RDA	$9.74	$17.69	$0.10	82.7%	13.7%
NVDA	$13.85	$15.47	$0.24	13.4%	13.7%
CF	$183.97	$233.09	$1.80	27.7%	13.7%
Totals				26.6%	13.7%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$233.09	$1.00	25.0%	9.5%
FLR	$66.06	$77.41	$0.32	17.7%	9.5%
AGX	$15.60	$25.15	$0.75	66.0%	9.5%
KLIC	$11.29	$12.21	$0.00	8.1%	9.5%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.23	$0.00	1.9%	9.5%
Totals				23.8%	9.5%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$16.50	-	-4.2%	0.6%
ATVI	$17.71	$17.20	-	-2.9%	0.6%
GA	$9.04	$11.33	-	25.4%	0.6%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.23	-	-4.8%	0.6%
SYNA	$48.01	$49.26	-	2.6%	0.6%
Totals				3.2%	0.6%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	23.8%	3.2%	88.4%	26.6%	35.1%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	0.0%	0.0%	11.9%
MFI Overall Gain	41.2%	48.4%	88.4%	26.6%	51.1%
Current Balance	35,289	37,098	47,095	31,644	151,126
R3K Current Tranche	9.5%	36.7%	21.8%	13.7%	20.4%
R3K Overall Gain	33.7%	36.7%	21.8%	13.7%	26.5%
R3K Balance	33,429	34,170	30,456	28,426	126,481
Annualized IRR	30.0%	45.1%	111.1%	49.1%	58.8%

Date	Differential
12/1/2012	-2.20%
1/1/2013	-1.78%
2/1/2013	-2.26%
3/1/2013	-2.23%
4/1/2013	-0.43%
5/1/2013	2.00%
6/1/2013	4.75%
7/1/2013	4.29%
8/1/2013	6.91%
9/1/2013	10.46%
10/1/2013	19.67%
11/1/2013	19.75%
12/1/2013	23.70%
Current	24.64%

You can see that differential over R3K increased another point in first week of December.  This is a stunning table.

Discretionary Portfolio

Stock	Gain	Cost	Price
GTAT	65.6%	5.23	8.67
GNW	114.0%	7.10	15.20
HIMX	19.1%	8.94	10.65
CS	3.1%	28.75	29.65
HIG-WT	28.3%	21.24	27.25
KLIC	9.5%	11.15	12.21
BAC-WTA	22.2%	5.35	6.54
GA	1.5%	11.16	11.33
TC	2.7%	2.19	2.25
Grand Total	38.5%

You will note the cost of GTAT increased from $3.37 to $5.23.  That is because I increased my share count during the week (using my multiplier) from 14,000 to 21,000.  This move does make GTAT a large position for me, but given the AAPL contract and greater earnings certainty going forward, I am comfortable with an out-sized position.  And while it is "large" (9.4% of all the stocks listed in my three portfolios); when you consider all my assets it is still pretty small (under 2%).